Putin "against the ropes"?

BBC News reported 6 hours ago (current BST: 07.50) that,

"The offices of the International Rescue Committee (IRC) (left) in eastern Ukraine have been closed down by pro-Russian rebels who accused it of spying.

Staff working for the aid organisation were briefly detained as their office in the rebel held city of Donetsk was raided and searched by masked gunmen." (BBC News : 30 April, 2015)

And whilst the offices of the IRC are been raided and searched by 'masked gunmen' in Donetsk,

"European Council President Donald Tusk and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker were united in expressing solidarity with Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko  at a joint press-conference (right) on Monday marking the close of the EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv." (UNIAN Information Agency : 28.04.2015)

Furthermore that,

"In turn, Juncker reconfirmed that the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is to be implemented on January 1, 2016, and any postponements are “not a good idea.” (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

The confirmation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine comes, however, under the deepening shadow of Putin descending upon Ukrainian troops who are now,

"... [coming] under rebel attack with Grad rockets for the first time since March and Germany’s foreign minister [warning] the situation is deteriorating as a decision looms on extending sanctions against Russia." (Volodymyr Verbyany, Boris Cerni & Misha Savic : Bloomberg Business : April 28, 2015)

Furthermore that,

"The intensity of clashes between government forces and pro-Russian separatists has “increased significantly” in the past 24 hours, with one soldier killed and 14 wounded, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk (left), a Ukrainian military spokesman, told reporters in Kiev on Tuesday." (ibid Bloomerg Business) (my emphasis)

Coupled with Putin's escalation of attacks on Ukrainian forces, thus rendering the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement totally meaningless,

"The United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force........
 .......
   By describing them as an integrated force in the east of the country, the U.S. is putting greater responsibility on Russia for the continued fighting. That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy...." (Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian : Associated Press : 30 April, 2015) (pic. right: Marie Harf and John Kerry)

This "shift in U.S. perceptions" also comes amid,

"Ukraine's leaders [who] believe Russia is preparing a broad attack on their country, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said April 28 as he returned from a summit in Kyiv that coincided with fresh violence in Ukraine's east." (KyivPost : April 29, 2015) (cf. also : Wall Street Journal)


Added to which,

"Ahead of the Eastern Partnership summit in May, Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma (right) of Latvia , which currently holds the Presidency of the EU, warned that if necessary, Article 5 of the NATO treaty will be enforced. We will not go back to the Soviet Union, she told EurActiv in an exclusive interview." (EurActiv : 27/04/2015)

Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' are now being confronted with this 'change in US perception' about his direct involvement in eastern Ukraine, which effectively amounts to the US  saying that Russia IS AT WAR with Ukraine.

Putin's 'siloviki'

 

 
Is it any wonder that he lashed out against those Heads of State who will not be attending the Moscow Victory Day parade?

What is even more indicative of Putin not being able to escape from the 'tangled web of deception' that he has woven around himself over his current war with Ukraine is his rather apopletic lashing out against Poland's,

" ..... decision to bar entry to a group of Night Wolves bikers who were trying to ride [through Poland] to Berlin to mark the 70th anniversary of [the Russian] victory in the Second World War....

Ewa Kopacz, (right) Poland’s prime minister, had earlier warned the bikers might be denied entry, calling their rally a “provocation” possibly intended “to disturb our security, put the Polish people in danger of distress”. (Tom Parfitt : The Telegraph : 28 Apr 2015)

Let us remind ourselves that, "Mr Putin once visited the Night Wolves' Moscow headquarters and has ridden with them on a three-wheeled Harley Davidson trike." (ibid Tom Parfitt)

Adding to Putin's current rage is the fact that,

"Last year, Russian gas giant Gazprom earned seven times less than in 2013, blaming the sharp decline in the value of the ruble and its frictions with Ukraine's gas operator Naftogaz for the massive downturn in profits.(DW : 29.04.2015) 

What is making him even more angry is the fact that the EU is launching anti-trust proceedings against Gazprom that may cost it Euro 7 billion in fines.

Putin is finally throwing caution to the wind.

The "Black Swan Event" abyss into which Putin has launched himself, together with his close circle of kleptocratic 'siloviki',  signifies that he simply has "no exit strategy" from the war that he has started with Ukraine. He simply cannot extricate himself from the tangled web of political deception that he has woven around himself."

He is now confronted by

• confirmation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine
• the United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force that will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy.
• Ukraine's leaders who believe Russia is preparing a broad attack on their country
• the Prime Minister of Latvia  warning that if necessary, Article 5 of the NATO treaty will be enforced if he should think of invading Latvia
• the Polish decision to bar entry to a group of Night Wolves bikers who were trying to ride through Poland to Berlin as a propaganda stunt for Russia and, 
• the EU launching anti-trust proceedings against Gazprom that may cost it Euro 7 billion in fines.

To now maintain his position of power in Russia, Putin has no other alternative strategy but to invade Ukraine.

Putin's 'Black Swan' event into which he has flung himself is an event from which he simply has no escape.

(to be continued)

Not 'Putinism' but simply 'fascism'

Peter Leonard informs us that,

  "Ukraine's president [Poroshenko (left)] said at a high-level

   summit with European Union officials Monday that his

   country will be able to meet conditions to apply for EU

   membership within five years." (AP: Yahoo News: 28 

   April, 2015) (my emphasis)

  Poroshenko's statement indicates not only the determination  of Ukraine to completely break with its Soviet past but, more importantly, its determination to completely overhaul its political and economic structures to conform to the stringent requirements of EU membership.

It is precisely these stringent EU political and economic requirements that is angering Putin, since it will throw into sharp relief the corrupt nature of Russian state and business investments in Ukraine since Ukraine became an independent nation after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

AP (US News) reports that,

"Russian investigators have opened a new corruption case against subcontractors building a space center where workers have gone unpaid for months and have appealed directly to President Vladimir Putin for help.....

.......

The Interior Ministry on Wednesday said its investigators had uncovered embezzlement of 50.5 million rubles (nearly $1 million) by one of the subcontractors, in addition to embezzlement by a separate contractor uncovered earlier." (AP (US News) : April 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting,

  "Prosecutors have called for ex-businesswoman Yevgeniya

  Vasilyeva (left) to be given a suspended sentence for her part

  in fraud schemes that  cost the state 3 billion rubles ($59

  million) after earlier demanding  an eight-year prison

  sentence, a news  report said." (Moscow Times : Apr.  24

   2015) (my emphasis)

This is but the tip of an iceberg of corruption in Russia, and it is a practice of corruption that Russia has exported to Ukraine since it became independent on 24 August 1991, until Euro-Maidan in 2014, and which Poroshenko is now tackling in Ukraine head-on.

As Armine Sahakyan (right) has reported,

" Russia has long exported the mentality that corruption is not only fine but is the way of doing things. Transparency International recently gave Russia a corruption rating of 136 out of the 177 countries it follows—placing Russia at the top 25 percent of countries that are the most corrupt." (Diplomatic Courier : Mar 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine that changing national legislation to prepare for the [EU-Ukraine trade] agreement would trigger "an immediate response from Moscow." (Rikard Jozwiak ) (my emphasis)

To which, quite rightly, Poroshenko has stated that,

  " ..... Russia is not a party to the Association

    Agreement and has no right to interfere."(ibid

  Rikard Jozwiak) (my emphasis)

  With this in mind, is it any wonder

   that  Putin and his kleptocratic

  'clan' are more than worried now that Ukrainian Prime Minister, Arsenii Yatseniuk (right), has categoricaly stated that,

"There is no doubt that effective Jan. 1, 2016 the agreement on free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU will commence work." (Censor.net : 27.04.15)

Ukraine will therefore have to institute all the necessary EU rules and regulations governing its trade with both EU and non-EU countries. 

Russian corruption simply cannot conform to the rules and regulations that Ukraine will have to adopt once it fully implements its free trade Association Agreement with the EU.

  This throws into rather sharp relief just why the

  "Putinversteher" Walter Steinmeier (left),

 

  "...called for a resumption of three-way talks between

  the EU, Ukraine, and Russia in order to identify

  "practical solutions"(ibid Rikard Jozwiak) to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, which has correctly been rejected by Poroshenko.

The potential loss of trade between Ukraine and Russia will, for Ukraine, be more than offset by its trade with the EU that the Association Agreement will set in motion. 

Putin's Russia, however, will have to find new trade outlets to compensate for its loss of trade with Ukraine. This will have to be done by Putin against a backdrop of Russia experiencing ever growing economic problems.

As Stratfor Global Intelligence explains,

"With Russia entering its second recession in six years, the country's economic and financial hardships are starting to weigh on the Russian people and regional governments. In times of severe economic crisis, such as those in 1905 and 1998, the Russian populace and regional authorities traditionally react against federal authority, fragmenting the country. Those in power in Moscow understand this and are taking measures to ensure that they counter and prevent any social or regional backlash and dissent." (Stratfor Global Intelligence : April 3, 2015)

Stratfor Global Intelligence reveals the following:

• massive capital flight of $160 billion in 2014 and an estimated $80 billion in 2015, a volatile ruble ...... and a likely federal budget deficit of approximately $45 billion in 2015
• The Russian people are starting to feel the pain. In March, inflation skyrocketed from just under 7 percent the previous month to nearly 17 percent
• Another area of dissatisfaction among the Russian people is the closure of medical facilities in some regions, such as Moscow, Novosibirsk and Vladivostok
• Sporadic minor protests have also taken place across Russia during the past month. Communist Party members in Stavropol got in coffins to protest their regional government's low pension payouts. In Novosibirsk, farmers dumped manure in front of state-run Sberbank with signs saying, "Bankers are enemies of the people," and, "Down with credit slavery."
• The Kremlin is concerned that the worsening economic situation could force some of the regional leaders to break with some of the federal government's strategies, such as how to handle protests, or how to allocate funds or pay taxes

  Levada released a poll on March 31 that indicated 45

  percent of Russians think the crackdowns that Soviet

  leader Josef  Stalin conducted during economic 

  hardships were justified — a sharp rise from just 25

  percent in 2013

Alexander J. Motyl  (right) writes that,

"A growing number of Russian analysts, in Russia and abroad, have taken to calling Vladimir Putin's regime "fascist." And they don't use the term casually or as a form of opprobrium. They mean that Putin's Russia genuinely resembles Mussolini's Italy or Hitler's Germany." (Atlantic Council : April 23, 201) (my emphasis)

Without being framed within the Soviet ideology that governed Stalin's crackdowns, Putin's ideological 'frame' within which his 'crackdowns' are framed 'mirrors' the ideological frame of the actions of Hitler and Mussolini.

(to be continued)