Putin's last stand?

To-day, the 24th August, Ukraine celebrates 'Independence Day'.

And yesterday, the President of India, Pranab Mukherjee (left),

"....greeted the government and the people of Ukraine on the eve of their Independence Day.

In a message to Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, Mr Mukherjee said: "On behalf of the government, the people of India and on my own behalf, I would like to extend warm greetings and felicitations to you and to the friendly people of Ukraine on the occasion of your independence day."

"We look forward to the further strengthening of friendly ties and bilateral cooperation," he said. (NDTV : August 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is significant about this public message of the President of India, Pranab Mukherjee, to the Ukrainian people is that India is a critical member of the BRICS group viz. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

As a further slap in Putin's face, Dmitry Zaks (right) informs us that,

"The heads of Germany and France will meet Kiev's pro-Western leader in Berlin on Monday for Ukrainian crisis talks most notable for their diplomatically-charged exclusion of Russia's Vladimir Putin.
.....
Russia has declined to formally address Putin's absence -- a position that underscores its refusal to admit Putin's growing isolation from Western countries .." (AFP : August 22, 2015) (my emphasis)


For Putin, this public pronouncement of President Pranab Mukherjee, together with his exclusion from to-day's Berlin meeting, must be sticking in his craw since,

".. The Crimea forbade to hold in the center of Simferopol festive meeting on August 24 occasionally Independence Day of Ukraine.

It was declared the day before by the local activist, the cofounder of the Ukrainian cultural center Leonid Kuzmin on the page on Facebook.

The corresponding ban (right), according to Kuzmin, I established so-called «city administration» Simferopol which for the formal reasons rejected the application for carrying out meeting submitted on August 18 with flower-laying to Taras Shevchenko's monument." (news-pn: 22 August 2015)

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that,

"Oil prices are now looking to fall even further. WTI is trading below $41 per barrel and has already breached the six-year lows.
......  In fact, some market analysts and traders are even predicting oil prices will fall to $30 per barrel." (Gaurav Agnihotri : Oil Price : Thu, 20 August 2015) (my emphasis)

It is therefore not surprising that,

"Poroshenko made one of his gloomiest predictions on prospects for peace in his country days before he meets German and French leaders in Berlin for a summit he called to urge them to put pressure on Russia to comply with a 6-month-old peace plan strained by ceasefire violations and shelling.
...
"The military threat from the east is a tangible reality for decades to come. This threat will not go away in the near future and every generation of Ukrainians must have army experience," he said. " (Business Insider UK : Aug. 23, 2015) ( my emphasis)

Putin needs to further ramp up his war-mongering efforts in eastern Ukraine as a counter to the growing economic gloom that has descended upon the Russian public. 

As Paul Roderick Gregory (right) writes,

"Putin’s failures are becoming more evident on a daily basis. No one denies that Russia is a kleptocratic state whose leaders have stolen much of the national wealth.
.......
Putin’s Kremlin promotes and supports a view of the world that causes world leaders to scratch their heads in dismay."(Forbes : Aug 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

He goes on to explain further that the 'knives are out' for some of Putin's closest associates, from Dmitry Peskov to Vladimir Yakunin to Gennady Timchenko to Victor Zolotov ...  (pic: left to right)

Paul Goble (left) also informs us that,

"Both Vladimir Putin's plans for Ukraine - his initial one of absorbing much of Ukraine and his "Plan B" of having the West force Ukraine into agreeing to make consessions - have failed, Andrey Piontkovsky says; and "the interests of Putin and his closest entourage now "seriously diverge, with the latter searching for his replacement" (Window on Eurasia : Thursday August 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this, as Paul Gregory suggests, that,

" ... some kind of power struggle is going on that seems to have Putin as its target. The pattern of attack is classic: bring down the big guy’s supporters first." (ibid Paul Gregory)

(to be continued)

Is Putin finally gazing into the abyss, whilst 50 ducklings are slaughtered according to his decree?

It should come as no surprise that Putin's trip to Ukrainian Crimea included not only the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev but, more importantly, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu, Putin's Minister of Defense. (Pic: left to right: Medvedev, Putin, Shoygu and Putin)

Recall that in my last blog entry (18/8/2015) I wrote that,
"
AFP reports that, during his third visit to Ukrainian Crimea,

"Putin held a government meeting in the Crimean city of Yalta to discuss the stuttering economic development of the peninsula under Moscow's rule." (AFP : 17 Aug. 2015) (my emphasis)

The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true." ....

The nagging question is, "Why did Shoygu, the Russian Minister of Defence, accompany Putin on his latest trip to Ukrainian Crimea?"

Perhaps we can glimpse an answer to this question by the recent warning given by NATO to Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine.

As reported yesterday (19/8/2015) by AFP,

" NATO on Wednesday warned pro-Russian separatists against grabbing more land in eastern Ukraine and stressed Moscow has a "special responsibility" to help restore peace as fighting escalates.
It said the members of the 28-nation, US-led alliance expressed "their serious concern about the recent sharp escalation of violence" when they met in Brussels." (AFP : 19/08/2015) (my emphasis) 

By stating that "Moscow has a "special responsibility" to help restore peace", NATO is, in effect, publicly acknowledging that Putin's Russian army is directly involved 'on the ground' in eastern Ukraine.

This "special responsibility" of Putin is perhaps best expressed by the fact that,

"Russia's newest tanks - Т-90А - have been spotted near Luhansk in east Ukraine, adding more evidence of that the Kremlin is behind the unremitting violence in Donbas. Russian officials deny involvement." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 15, 2015)

Furthermore, as reported by Alexander Smith,

"Ukrainian forces said Wednesday that separatists attacked their positions 82 times overnight, including using artillery banned under the shaky February truce brokered by European leaders.
"The situation is still most tense in the area of the militant-controlled city of Donetsk," (NBC News : Aug 19 2015) (my emphasis)

Was Russian Minister of Defense, Shoygu, examining the readiness of his Russian troops in Ukrainian Crimea, as Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine accelerate their onslaught against Ukrainian forces in preparation for an impending attack on Mariupol?

Furthermore, is has now been reported by Tyler Durden that,

"Having waited for over a year for the Ukraine civil war/conflict to be relegated to back page status, if that, Putin has finally given the green light, and as Xinhua reports, leaders of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" are planning to hold a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, the Donetsk-based Ostrov news agency reported Wednesday.

The referendum is scheduled to take place some in early to mid November, or specifically two to four weeks after the Oct. 18 local elections, said the news agency.
The ballot papers for the referendum designed in the colors of the Russian flag have already been printed, it said.

And while neither the rebel leadership nor the Ukrainian authorities have commented on the report yet, the modus operandi is strikingly familiar to what happened in Crimea." (Zerohedge :  19/08/2015)
 
Putin already has thousands of his "little green men" (remember Ukrainian Crimea?) operating in eastern Ukraine. And, as Tyler Duren speculates, "the modus operandi is strikingly familiar to what happened in Crimea".

NATO may be giving warnings to pro-Russian separatists against grabbing more land in eastern Ukraine, but does this include a warning to Putin and his "little green men"? 

Is NATO warning Putin?

And is Defense Minister Shoygu now preparing his Russian forces in Ukrainian Crimea to come to the "rescue" of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine when Poroshenko's army repels their advance towards Mariupol?
 
Perhaps indicative of Putin's current mindset is the fact that,

"Russian officials euthanized and then burned 50 ducklings being smuggled into the country from Ukraine, Zvezda TV channel reported Saturday.

"The ducklings did not have any accompanying documents, so a decision was made to destroy them," Svetlana Zaporozhchenko, head of the Belgorod region's branch of Rosselkhoznadzor agricultural watchdog, told the channel." (Moscow Times: Aug. 16 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin's final push towards Mariupol?

There is something quite perverse going on in the White House when,

"The Wall Street Journal reported (in July!) that the Pentagon’s proposal, which is awaiting approval from the Obama White House, would provide Ukraine with counter-battery radar that would help the country determine from where an incoming projectile was fired in order to more precisely retaliate against separatists." (Morgan Chalfant : Washington Free Beacon : July 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

whilst today (18 Aug. 2015),

"..the Obama Administration refuses to provide lethal assistance to Kiev, and even previously promised nonlethal assistance isn’t always forthcoming....
...
The [counter-battery radar] system is ready to be delivered, according to a senior American military official, who says the U.S. military is also prepared to provide training. But the Pentagon still needs political authorization in Washington almost a month after the original announcement was made to great press fanfare." (Wall Street Journal : Aug. 17, 2015)

And Obama continues to sit on his hands even as,

"Russian proxies in occupied eastern Ukraine shelled Ukrainian-government positions over the weekend and on Aug. 17. The artillery barrage killed two civilians and wounded several others in Sartana, near the Sea of Azov. Its one of the larger-scale escalations of the conflict since a winter cease-fire" (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)
 
What is even more significant is that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), Germany's Foreign Minister, is

".... calling the situation in eastern Ukraine "explosive", [and] urged both parties in the conflict to come together quickly for talks to prevent a spiral in violence" (The Economic Times : 16 Aug, 2015)(my emphasis)

  

 (BBC News Report : 17th August, 2015)

 
And whilst Obama is with-holding supplying Poroshenko with radar that can protect Ukrainian civilians from the current shelling onslaught by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine,

AFP reports that, during his third visit to Ukrainian Crimea,

"Putin held a government meeting in the Crimean city of Yalta to discuss the stuttering economic development of the peninsula under Moscow's rule." (AFP : 17 Aug. 2015) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko (left) is correct in saying that,

“Putin’s arrival in Ukrainian Crimea, without agreement from Ukrainian authorities, is a challenge to the civilized world,” Mr Poroshenko said.

He called the visit “a continuation of a plan to escalate the situation, which is being carried out by Russian troops and their mercenaries” in eastern Ukraine. (Daniel McLaughlin (right) : Irish Times : Tue, Aug 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

 
The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true. Let us cast our minds back to a few days ago.

• Putin held an “operative meeting” on August 12 with the members of the Russian Security Council about escalating violence in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : Tuesday, August 18, 2015)
• The Kremlin said the focus of the meeting was on attacks on pro-Russian separatists as well as residents of eastern Ukraine... (ibid RFERL)
• Military authorities in Ukraine believe the number of Russian troops within and close to its borders has risen to more than 50,000, raising fears of a substantial escalation in the conflict raging in Ukraine's eastern regions. (Adam Nathan: The Independent : Sunday 16 August 2015)
• Ukrainian officials reported two civilian deaths on their side, in a suburb of Mariupol on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Security and Defense Council also reported two troops killed and six injured overnight. (AP : Indian Express : Aug 18. 2015)
• The clashes, near the port of Mariupol in the south-east and at rebel-held Horlivka, further frayed an increasingly tenuous ceasefire as Ukraine prepared to mark its independence day next week. (ABC Australia : August 18, 2015)

With these current events in mind, it seems that Putin is now more determined than ever to obtain his land-bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea. 

He is masking the 'true' reason for visit to Ukrainian Crimea, which is to ready his troops in Ukrainian Crimea to support his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine during their final push towards Mariupol.

Indeed, it may be, "the stuttering economic development " of [Ukrainian Crimea now] under Moscow's rule that is compelling Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to throw caution to the wind and simply invade Mariupol.

And indirectly aiding and abetting Putin is President Obama, sitting on his hands in the White House whilst watching this scenario unfold before his very eyes.  

(to be continued)
  

Against the ropes, Putin accelerates Russia's move towards fascism

AFP reports that,

"US Secretary of State John Kerry called his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Thursday (13 Aug. 2015) to express "grave concern" about increased separatist attacks in Ukraine, a senior State Department official said." (AFP : 14/08/2015) (my emphasis)

Over the last few days mounting international concern has been growing over the assaults staged by Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel-proxies on Ukrainian villages in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Nash Jenkins (left),

"Separatist insurgents staged assaults on Ukrainian villages on Monday, reports Reuters. State officials say the attacks featured the heaviest shelling in the region since February." (Time : Aug. 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Mark Piggott further informs us that,

"According to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko,, "200 insurgents used tanks to storm" the area. The President's office said he would now be speaking to senior military figures to forge a response to "the rise in the number of attacks, particularly those using artillery fire, by the Russian-terrorist forces."

Ukraine fears the rebels are attempting to secure Mariupol, 30 miles to the south of Starohnativka and Novolaspa, providing a clear corridor to Crimea from rebel-held areas. Ukraine's defence ministry said the incident was "a dangerous indication of a further escalation to come." (International Business Times : August 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

This assault by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies has been brewing for months.

What, therefore, has compelled Putin to 'throw caution to the wind' by launching this assault, knowing full well that the international community will view it as him simply trampling all over the Minsk2 protocols?

Even the 'soft-on-Putin' 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, (Head of the EU's External Action Service) (left with Putin) has had to have her EU department come out with a rather 'soft' admonishing statement about Putin's renewed military assault in eastern Ukraine.

"The renewed escalation of the conflict raising the number of casualties, as a result of attacks on several government controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements....

The Minsk Agreements must be implemented in good faith, starting with full observation of the ceasefire and genuine withdrawal of heavy weapons." (European Union External Action : 11/08/2015) (my emphasis)

Firstly, could it just be that Putin has been forced to stoke up his war with Ukraine to deflect the gaze of the Russian people from  all that food that he has decreed last week should be 'publicly' destroyed?

This public display of tons of food simply being destroyed has caused something of an outcry in Russia.

As reported by Anna Arutunyan,

""You can't just destroy food when there are so many people who have trouble feeding themselves," said activist Olga Saveleva, whose petition on Change.org had gathered over 320,000 signatures since Thursday.

 The measures are "absurd and grotesque," said Saveleva, who plans to forward her petition to Putin and members of parliament." (USA Today : August 8, 2015) (my emphasis)

Secondly, Evgenia Pismennaya and Ilya Arkhipov tell us that a rift seems to be developing between members of Russia's  Central Bank. Dmitry Tulin, "back as the bank's chief monetary chief", is challenging Governor Elvira Nabiullina, his boss at Russia's Central Bank. (left: Nabiullina & Tulin)

"... [Tulin's] challenge to the orthodox approach of his boss at the central bank, Governor Elvira Nabiullina, underscores the tension facing Russia’s economic policy makers as they try to steady an economy battered largely by forces beyond their control." (Bloomberg Business : August 13, 2015)

Furthermore, as Craig Pirrong (left) informs us,

"Wherever Putin and his economic advisers look, the scene is bleak indeed. The situation in China is particularly ominous, because Putin had grabbed onto China like a drowning man, hoping it would rescue him from the blows raining down from sanctions and the commodity price (read: oil price) implosion.

But the Chinese devaluation, combined with a litany of other grim statistics coming out of China, suggests that if China is not drowning itself, it is struggling mightily to keep its head above water." (Seeking Alpha : Aug. 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin (right) is correct in stating that,

""The latest examples of escalation of the situation were a deliberate and clearly planned operation both in Shyrokyne and Starohnativka. All these cases are examples of how the Russian side along with Donetsk and Luhansk tries to derail the implementation of the Minsk agreements," said Klimkin" (UNIAN : 13.08.2015) (my emphasis)

This current 'lashing out' of an angry Putin, by having his Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies gear up towards an all-out assault on Mariupol, also signifies a threatening indicator that his generals are simply not going to sit back whilst the US and other NATO forces continue to train Ukrainian soldiers.

 

As reported by Anna Nemtsova, (right)

"The Kremlin is worried about not just what the American troops are teaching the Ukrainians, but what they may be learning from them and the Donbas battlefield.

... Indeed, U.S. troops and Ukrainian troops learning from each other seems to be just the kind of thing that Russian President Vladimir Putin was worrying about when he called an emergency meeting of his security council on Wednesday.(12 Aug. 2015)" (The Daily Beast : 13.08.15) (my emphasis)

As the economic pressures against him increases, and a hairline crack between himself and the Russian people begins to emerge, Putin has no other choice but to accelerate his grip on the Russian people.

As  Anatoly Akhutin (left), a Russian scientist and philosopher, states,

"In his third term, Putin is a frank Stalinist. Honestly, the grim Stalinist spirit has actually never disappeared, so its return is the most effective way for Putin to assert his authority," says the philosopher.

He suggests that in the coming years, Russia may expect fascization.

"[This is] Without metaphors. Archaizing traditionalism, nationalism, anti-intellectualism, xenophobia, a combination of megalomania with paranoia, corporate isolation of power, the cult of the leader – these are all the obvious features of the Putin regime and the elementary definition of fascism,” (UNIAN : 13.08.2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Has Putin's final push in eastern Ukraine begun?

From the 'Treaty of Brest Litovsk' (1918)  to the 'Treaty of Rapallo' (1922) to the 'Molotov Ribbentrop Pact' (1939); the common thread running through these treaties and this pact revolves around land grabs organized between Russia and Germany.

In the case of the 'Treaty of Brest Litovsk', the countries that were divided up between Russia and Germany included Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine and the future Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

In the 'Treaty of Rapallo',

" ..... [it was] suggested that Germany and the Soviet Union should conclude an alliance to jointly invade Poland, followed by a war on France. " (Wikipedia)

Then along came the 'Molotov-Ribbentrop' pact which, in its 'secret protocol',

" .... Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland were divided into German and Soviet "spheres of influence".

In the north, Finland, Estonia and Latvia were assigned to the Soviet sphere. Poland was to be partitioned in the event of its "political rearrangement"...." (Wikipedia)

Is it any wonder today (2015), that the Baltic states, Finland, and particularly Poland, are adopting defensive military postures against Putin as he continues his military 'Novorossiya' drive in Ukraine? 

As reported by Anna Dolgov (left) of The Moscow Times,

"...amid Western sanctions against Moscow for its annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin has shifted to an increasing glorification of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and his regime's pact with Nazi Germany. Putin said last November that the pact was not so bad." (Moscow Times : May. 11 2015) (my emphasis)

Many have lately been assuming that since Putin no longer uses the word 'Novorossiya' that somehow this is no longer the pivot around which his true agenda in his war with Ukraine revolves.

Yet yesterday we learn that,

"The United States says Ukrainian rebels launched more attacks over the last three days than any similar time period since February, in what may be an escalating effort by Russian-backed militants to destabilize Ukraine's Western-backed government." (Bradley Klapper : Associated Press : Aug. 10, 2015)

Indeed,

"The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the situation “a dangerous indication” of imminent conflict, AFP said. The attacks are the latest in recent allegations that separatist forces have breached the truce signed in Minsk in February." (Nash Jenkins : Time : Aug. 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden escalation has led the UK Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, to warn that,

"The Ukraine conflict is a “red hot” war that shows no sign of ending soon, the Defence Secretary warned as he announced Britain will step up training to Ukrainian forces fighting Russian-backed separatists.

Michael Fallon said the 18-month long crisis had not settled into a frozen war and Ukraine’s eastern border was still at risk from Vladimir Putin." (Ben Farmer and Roland Oliphant : The Telegraph : 11 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

That Putin's war with Ukraine is a "red hot" war is also signified by the fact that,

"....Russian soldiers are deserting the army because of the conflict in Ukraine. Their stories contradict the Kremlin's assertion that no government soldiers have been sent there.", as reported by Rory Challands. (Aljazeera : 11 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's militaristic build-up of the Russian armed forces, as the Russian economy continues to fall into recession, together with his constant stoking of a nationalistic and militaristic fervor amongst the Russian people, as evidenced by the public destruction of "banned imported food", signifies that far from forgetting about his 'Novorossiya' dreams, he now seems determined to realize them.
  

His determination to realize his 'Novorossiya' dreams is further underscored by the fact that,

"An obscure row between supporters of the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian archaeologists reached the Kremlin on Saturday when President Vladimir Putin declared Unesco-listed ruins in Crimea a national [Russian] heritage site.

The governor of Sevastopol last week appointed a priest as the director of a historical area that contains Chersonesus, an ancient Greek city on the Crimean coast." (Roland Oliphant : The Daily Telegraph : 02 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, all that the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini's (Head of the EU's External Action Service) (left with Putin) spokesperson can say in relation to Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine trampling all over the Minsk2 proposals is that,

"The renewed escalation of the conflict raising the number of casualties, as a result of attacks on several government controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements....

The Minsk Agreements must be implemented in good faith, starting with full observation of the ceasefire and genuine withdrawal of heavy weapons. Further impetus must be given to talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, allowing for complete implementation of the Minsk Agreements within the agreed timeframe by the end of the year." (European Union External Action : 11/08/2015)(my emphasis)

Dearest 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, 

'Pigs will Simply Not Fly'!

(to be continued)

As Putin destroys food, he is finally exposing his true nature to the Russian people

Brian Whitmore says that,

"War may be politics by other means. But Vladimir Putin also understands that politics can be war by other means.

Having failed to achieve the destabilization of Ukraine on the battlefield, the Kremlin leader now appears to be trying to achieve that goal politically -- by forcing the separatist-held parts of Donbas back into Ukraine, with broad autonomy, as a Trojan horse." (RFERL : July 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

An inhuman indicator of Putin's failure to destabilize Ukraine on the battlefield is his recent signing of a decree to destroy all western food that has been smuggled into Russia.

As Sarah Rainsford reports,

"The sight of vast amounts of banned foreign food being bulldozed, buried or burned is causing controversy in Russia.

 .....

Tens of thousands of people have joined a protest petition to President Vladimir Putin. 

...

As the presidential decree came into effect on Thursday, state TV ran reports accompanied by vivid images of huge, round cheeses being dumped and crushed.

Reporters hailed a crackdown on contraband, but many Russians are deeply disturbed by the development." (BBC News : 7 August 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is destroying food as the number of Russians falling below the poverty line rapidly increases (cf also: Moscow Times),

"A new batch of coal in the amount of 80,000 tonnes has been supplied to energy-starving Ukraine from South Africa, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Valeriy Voschevsky said on Tuesday at a round table discussion on preparations for the 2015-2016 heating season." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Bear in mind that South Africa is a member of the BRICS group, an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. 

 One would have thought that the BRICS countries would have somehow supported Putin in his war with Ukraine. Not so in the case of South Africa.

And as TASS reports,

"The purchase of additional coal volumes [from South Africa] is on the agenda" (TASS : August 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's current headaches over his war with Ukraine, 

"Poland together with Ukraine's other neighbors should be involved in resolving the crisis in eastern Ukraine, Poland's president-elect Andrzej Duda (right) said." (Wiktor Szary : Reuters : Wed Aug 5, 2015) (my emphasis) 

This would blow up the rather cozy relationship that Putin has so far enjoyed with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande during the Minsk talks that have so far have taken place. 

If either Putin, Merkel, or Hollande, publicly baulk at this suggestion of Polish President elect Andrzej Duda, then this will particularly expose Merkel and Hollande as having being soft on Putin all along.

And yet again, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko (right), has once more stated that,

""When I met with [Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr] Turchynov, I assured him that this would never ever happen. Nobody will attack Ukraine from our territory unless our interests have been infringed or Ukraine has been first to attack. But this will never happen," Lukashenko told non-governmental Belarusian media, euroradio.fm broadcasts." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Pavel Aksenov reports that,

"Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told parliament that Ukrainian components were used in the production of 186 types of Russian military equipment.

That is a serious problem, he admitted, and Moscow could resolve it only by 2018." (BBC News : 8 August 2015) (my emphasis)

From frigates to helicopters to Antonov transport planes; Russia needs the critical Ukrainian components for all of these war machines of Putin's.

 It would now seem that Putin has created for himself the perfect storm.

No matter how much his propaganda machinery tries to gloss over the fact that he is destroying tons of food, the Russian people are not fools. This action of his is doing him no favours with the Russian people. Rather, it is slipping the mask from his face and exposing his true nature to the Russian people.  No amount of the beating of the drum of 'Russian Nationalism' will make the Russian people forgive him for destroying food.

The suggestion of  the president-elect of Poland, Andrzej Duda, that he, together with others, join in on resolving the crisis in eastern Ukraine, is a diplomatic move that neither Putin, Merkel, nor Hollande dare ignore.

The fact that key elements of Putin's war machine are no longer supplied by Ukraine should also give him pause for concern.

Ukraine is now stocking up coal for the winter months from sources other than Russia. It has also been stocking up gas from sources other than Gazprom.    

Perhaps, most critical of all,

"Ukrainian security officials have renewed their request for U.S. weapons while meeting with a visiting congressional delegation headed by House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi." (Fox News (Associated Press): August 05, 2015) (cf also: Nancy Pelosi)(my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin, lies, and the breakdown of recent talks in Minsk

"....villains simply cannot trust one another. ..... it seems to come undone because the bad guys are inherently treacherous and suspicious of one another" (TV Tropes)

And so it is that,

"The bitter feuding between the [rebel groups in eastern Ukraine] raises the prospect of greater factional fighting among the rebel forces, deepening an already grave humanitarian situation and possibly complicating matters for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia" (Andrew E. Kramer: New York Times: Aug. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

Kramer further goes on to report that,

“The Cossacks are facing reprisals” from the separatists, Lyubov A. Korsakova, the editor of a Cossack newspaper, the Front Bulletin, said in an interview here in the traditional Cossack capital. “They started to disarm the Cossacks, and not only to disarm them, but to kill them.” (my emphasis) (cf also: RFREL) (Pic:Rebels carried a coffin holding the body of Aleksei B. Mozgovoi, a separatist leader, in Alchevsk, Ukraine)

 Meanwhile,

"... former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who is ... on the wanted list by the Ukrainian law enforcement officers, has announced the establishment of a "Committee of Salvation of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 03.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Putin claims, however, non-involvement in Azarov’s Committee of Ukraine’s Salvation

"The Russian authorities have no relation to the initiative of creating the Committee of Salvation of Ukraine and the election of its leader Volodymyr Oliynyk, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

 

Of course Dmitry Peskov! And 'Pigs will fly'! 

As a 'diplomatic' ploy, Putin needs to have a so-called 'government in exile' for Ukraine residing in Moscow simply to deflect the gaze of the world away from the feuding that is now taking place between his Russian Cossacks and those Russians in eastern Ukraine that he was ostensibly saving from the Ukrainians.

Recall his 'mantra' since the beginning of his invasion of eastern Ukraine now more than a year ago that he was simply 'saving the Russian population in eastern Ukraine' from the Ukrainians.

Not only is Putin setting up his 'puppet government in exile', it now transpires that his propaganda machine has decided to go into the 'book publishing' business.

As reported by Anna Dolgov (left) of the Moscow Times,

"Russia's Investigative Committee has released a book supposedly documenting the "crimes" of Ukrainian government forces illustrated by a cover photo of a burning city — an image of alleged devastation that was exposed as a doctored "fake" by online activists more than a year ago." (Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2015) (my emphasis)

She further goes on to state that,

"Scores of reports by Russian officials and state-run media have been exposed as fake since the start of the conflict in Ukraine." 

.....

The publication comes shortly after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have established a tribunal for prosecuting those responsible for the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine last summer." (ibid Anna Dolgov) (my emphasis)

Even further miring Putin in the mud of his lies over his war with Ukraine, Christopher Harress reports that,

"A soldier fighting for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine has sparked yet another war of words between Kiev and Moscow by claiming he is from 16th Airborne Brigade of the Russian army, according to a report Monday from the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe, the group charged with overseeing the conflict." (International Business Times : August 04 2015) (my emphasis)

                                        

More significantly, however,

"Another round of peace talks on Ukraine in Belarusian capital of Minsk involving envoys from Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE and militant forces ended without no agreements reached." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Ukraine Today,

"Four main themes were discussed - based around security, the economy, politics and humanitarian issues. In particular, the demilitarization of the Azov Sea coastal village of Shyrokyne and the extension of a buffer zone along other parts of the front line." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 4, 2015)

The people of Mariupol, quite rightly, are concerned about this demilitarized zone that would expose them to Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies.

"Hundreds of people have gathered in the centre of the strategic Ukrainian port city of Mariupol to protest against plans to create a demilitarised buffer zone to separate government troops and Russian-backed militants nearby in the village of Shyrokyne." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 3, 2015) 

 

Bear in mind that Putin has not yet  fully divested himself of his 'Novorossiya' dream, with a land link between Crimea and Russia being one of his primary aims.

As I stated in my blog entry on Monday,

"And as if to underline that Putin and Kirill are walking together in lockstep, Roland Oliphant informs us that,

"An obscure row between supporters of the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian archaeologists reached the Kremlin on Saturday when President Vladimir Putin declared Unesco-listed ruins in Crimea a [Russian] national heritage site."

With this in mind, one can understand the anxiety of the people of Mariupol over the creation of a possible demilitarized zone between themselves and Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies holing themselves up in the village of Shyrokyne.

And as the price of oil and the value of the Rouble continues to fall, as it has done over recent days, and Putin's economy slips into even deeper recession, his placing of Russia on a war-footing will continue to accelerate.

(to be continued)