Putin's UN supporter, Ban Ki-Moon.

Are we at all surprised that Ban Ki-Moon, the retiring Secretary General of the UN,  should, at the Kremlin sponsored St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, say that Russia,

"has a critical role to play ... in addressing other pressing global issues, from ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, to safeguarding human rights and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." (Louis Charbonneau : Reuters : Thu Jun 16, 2016) (my emphasis),

and then have his reference to Ukraine removed from a UN circulation of his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia?

As reported by Edith M. Lederer (right),

"... The United Nations later circulated the speech the secretary-general actually delivered which made no mention of Ukraine." (AP : Yahoo News : 16 June 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet whilst Ban Ki-Moon is soft-peddaling on Putin's war with Ukraine,

"More Russian military hardware and fuel materials are reported to have been deployed to the militant-occupied city of Khartsyzk in the Donetsk region." (UT : Jun. 12, 2016)

Let us also remind ourselves of what U.N. Human Rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani (right) recently said.

“There have been strongly credible reports of servicemen from across the border from Russia coming into and out of Ukrainian territory," she said. "And, the same goes for heavy weaponry as well. There have been very credible reports.” (Lisa Schlein : VOA : June 03, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"Ukrainian Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko (left) told reporters he was incensed by Ban's remarks which came across as praise of Moscow, which the Kiev government and Western powers accuse of supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. (ibid Louis Charbonneau) (my emphasis)

 Andriy Vasyliev (right) is of the opinion that,

"There will be no UN peacekeeping operation in Donbas - it is completely clear now, although six months ago, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry still fostered this hope." (UNIAN : Friday, 17 June 2016) (my emphasis)

This conclusion of his derives from the fact that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addressing the UN Security Council stated that,

"The United Nations is determined to work collectively to support Governments to protect their people, and to persuade parties to conflict to abide by their obligations. But, even the most effective peacekeeping can never protect every civilian from harm.” (ibid Andriy Vasyliev) (my emphasis)

But, as Andriy Vasyliev further reports,

" ... against the backdrop of the UNSC’s  (UN Security Council) inaction many UN member states back a Franco-Mexican initiative to cancel the right to veto in the Security Council when it comes to mass casualties in conflict areas. Then the UN Security will be able to pass decisions by simple majority. Under these conditions, the deployment of "blue helmets" in Donbas is actually a question solved."

Ban Ki-Moon recognises that parties involved in conflicts have to "abide by their obligations".

When, however, Putin continues to simply walk all over the Minsk2 protocols by continuing to ferry armaments and Russian soldiers into the Donbas, and ensuring that the 'ceasefire' is trampled upon by his rebel proxies and soldiers in Donbas, a strange 'blindness' seems to befall Ban Ki-Moon.

As Robin Emmott reports,

"Russia is violating an internationally-agreed ceasefire in Ukraine "again and again", NATO's chief [Jens Stoltenberg (right)] said on Wednesday, accusing Moscow of continuing to arm separatists in the conflict at the center of East-West tensions." (Reuters : Wed Jun 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Chairman of Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada Andriy Parubiy (left) has stated that,

"Russia may step up military action in Ukraine at any time," he said at a meeting of the Inter-Parliamentary Council of the NATO-Ukraine in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Ukraine should be prepared to repel one of the largest armies on the continent." (UNIAN : 14 June 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's continuing military buildup in the Donbas has precipitated,

"NATO defense ministers [agreeing] on Wednesday to boost NATO's support for Ukraine with a Comprehensive Package of Assistance. The Package aims to help Ukraine strengthen its defenses by building stronger security structures.
...
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg explained that the Comprehensive Package brings together all the strands of NATO's support, and will "help Ukraine establish more effective and efficient defence and security structures, and to strengthen civilian control over them." (China Economic Net : 16-06-2016) (my emphasis) 

Is it this NATO support for Ukraine that is now giving Putin sleepless nights?

As reported by Marc Bennetts,

"President Putin’s strongman mask has slipped after he was caught complaining about his lack of sleep.

“I don’t sleep much,” a tired-looking Mr Putin told Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, during small talk in advance of a joint press conference in Minsk this week.
“The day before yesterday I slept four hours. Last night, five hours. I get to bed at three and I wake up at eight.”

Mr Lukashenko nodded sympathetically. “That’s bad,” he said. (The Times : June 10 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also Will Stewart)

(to be continued)

Is Putin being rescued from an economically failing Crimea?

It is quite amusing to hear the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left), European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, yet again mouthing the political platitude at the UN that,

"The European Union will continue to stand for Ukraine's territorial integrity – and does not recognise the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol. " (UT : Jun. 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time she follows this statement with,

"We are working closely with Kyiv to help them achieve the reforms the country so urgently needs." (ibid UT)

And what does this mean? Nothing more nor less than her call for Kiev to strictly carry out the Minsk2 agreements, agreements that have Putin's fingerprints all over them.

""The Minsk agreements have to be fully implemented in all their parts, if we want the situation in eastern Ukraine to calm down". (ibid UT) (pic. right: Mogherini with Lavrov and Putin)

This 'political grandstanding' of the 'fragrant' Mogherini has to be viewed against the backdrop of the increasingly vocal call of Putin's sympathisers in the EU for the EU sanctions against Russia to be dismantled piece-by-piece, as suggested by those Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier and his SDP 'buddy', German Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel.                                Sigmar Gabriel and Walter Steinmeier

What, exactly, is the 'real' motive behind this call for the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be dismantled piecemeal?

Maybe Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitri Medvedev, gives us a clue.

As reported by UT,

"During his visit to Russia-occupied [Ukrainian Crimea] peninsula Dmitry Medvedev held a meeting with frustrated local citizens.

"We don't have money now. But you hold on, I wish you all the best, good mood and good health", Medvedev said in response to the complaints.
...
Medvedev explained, similar problems existed in every region of the Russian Federation. So the government couldn't raise pensions just in Crimea. He promised to increase the payments when Moscow finds money." (UT : May. 24, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: UT Jun. 7, 2016 "Money's Running Out in Crimea") 

As I reported in my last blog entry,

".... Roland Oliphant of the Telegraph reports that,

".. a few hours ago regional deputies [in Putin's annexed Ukrainian Crimea] voted overwhelmingly for Crimea to join Russia as another region of the Russian federation" (Telegraph video : 9 June 2016)

This puts into perspective Medvedev explaining that,

"....similar [economic] problems existed in every region of the Russian Federation ..."

 And now Putin's hand-picked deputies in illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimea are calling for it to become a de facto region of the Russian Federation? 

Yet the 'fragrant' Mogherini can stand up in the UN and 'un-blushingly' pronounce that,

"The European Union will continue to stand for Ukraine's territorial integrity – and does not recognise the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol. " (ibid UT : Jun. 7, 2016)

whilst at the SAME time there is a call for,

"... EU sanctions against Russia to be dismantled piece-by-piece, as suggested by those Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier and his SDP 'buddy', German Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel." 

Furthermore, as reported by William Courtney and Michael Haltzel (left),

"To seek relief from Western sanctions, the Kremlin is waging a campaign of public distortion and intimidation aimed at splitting Europe from America, and Europeans from each other." (Newsweek : 11 June, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is it not ironic that, amongst others, leading German Social Democrats, the French Senate, and Hungary’s right-wing government will give Putin this relief from Western sanctions and, in so doing, aid and abet him in being able to financially afford to de facto annex Ukrainian Crimea?  

As I wrote in my blog entry (Sunday, 5 June 2016),

"Let us not forget that,"...Angela Merkel has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess who went on to expand Russia’s territory to the west and the south, including Crimea." (Patrick Donahue and Tino Andresen : Bloomberg : March 4, 2014) 

 

Let us also remind ourselves that, 

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" (George Santayana)

Where, now, is the outrage of Germany and Putin's other cohorts in the EU against this sneakily Putin-inspired vote by his hand-picked deputies in annexed Ukrainian Crimea? 
 

 (to be continued)

Is Putin being 'bribed' with Ukrainian Crimea by his EU supporters?

Agence France Press reported on 27th May 2016 that,

"Steinmeier on Friday floated the possibility of a "step by step" reduction of sanctions but only if there is progress on ending the conflict in Ukraine." (AFP : 27 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

 It can be no co-incidence that the Putinversteher Steinmeier choose the SAME day that Putin arrived in Greece to make this pronouncement.

Since then, Putin's friends in the EU have rallied around Steinmeier's call for the "step by step" reduction of sanctions aginst Putin's Russia. These include Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi,  Austrian Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner, and French Economics Minister Emmanuel Macron, including Alexis Tsipras of Greece and officials of Spain and Portugal.

And on Monday, Lydia Tomkiw (left) reported that,

"In another sign of crumbling European resolve over Ukraine, the French Senate voted [by a 302-16 vote] Wednesday to urge its government to gradually dismantle economic sanctions on Russia, a move welcomed by the Kremlin. The vote came as politicians across the European Union have hinted at wanting to reduce sanctions ahead of renewal talks this month." (International Business Times : 06/09/16) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said in an interview published on Thursday that,

"Russia is an important global player and not a regional power," Gabriel told the Russlandkontrovers.de website.

"That is why I am calling for Russia to rejoin the group, and turn the G7 back into the G8."

Russlandkontrovers.de is the website of the established German-Russian Forum, which was founded in 1993 and includes over 400 leaders from industry, politics and academia." (Andrea Shalal : Reuters : Thu Jun 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin's 'supporters' in the EU are rallying around him, Putin himself,

".. is building an army base near its border with Ukraine, the latest in a chain of new military sites along what the Kremlin sees as its frontline in a growing confrontation with NATO." (Anton Zverev : Reuters : Wed Jun 8, 2016) (my emphasis) (left: Putin's forces in the town of Klintsy in Bryansk region, Russia)

 

It is thus no wonder that,

"Senior officials from Georgia and Ukraine on Wednesday exhorted Nato members to bring the two nations into the alliance in order to protect them from Russia and cement ties with the West." (Associated Press : The Telegraph : 9 June 2016) (my emphasis)

And, hot off the press, Roland Oliphant of the Telegraph reports that,

".. a few hours ago regional deputies [in Putin's annexed Ukrainian Crimea] voted overwhelmingly for Crimea to join Russia as another region of the Russian federation" (Telegraph video : 9 June 2016)

 

As I wrote in my blog entry (Sunday, 5 June 2016),

 

"Let us not forget that,"...Angela Merkel has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess who went on to expand Russia’s territory to the west and the south, including Crimea." (Patrick Donahue and Tino Andresen : Bloomberg : March 4, 2014) 

 

Let us remind ourselves that, 

 

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" (George Santayana)

Where, now, is the outrage of Germany and Putin's other cohorts in the EU against this sneakily Putin-inspired vote by his hand-picked deputies in annexed Ukrainian Crimea? 

Their silence is positively deafening!

Yet they continue to scream that Ukraine should pave the way for holding elections in a Donbas over-run by 10,000 active Russian soldiers whilst,

 
" ....  Members of the Russian-backed militant forces in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk region are reportedly abandoning the idea of fighting for the Kremlin due to unpaid wages." (UT : Jun. 8, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is this why that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, recently announced that,

"[There are] no plans to recognize self-proclaimed Donbas republics

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says that Moscow's move to recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics would be counterproductive, according to Russian news agency TASS." (UNIAN : 31 May 2016) (my emphasis)

Was Putin's invasion of the Donbas a 'maskirovka' strategy to FULLY incorporate Ukrainian Crimea into the Russian Federation behind the scenes, WITHOUT a whimper from the West? That vote in Ukrainian Crimea seems to support this contention.

And whilst Putin's rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas are complaining about the non-payment of their wages,


Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitri Medvedev was,

"... confronted by a pensioner who complained about the government's failure to index pensions. The prime minister replied: "There is no money. But be strong. All the best. Have a good day, and good health," he added. Then he turned round and left. (BBC News : 9 June 2016)

(to be continued)

Is Putin being let off the hook by the German cabal of Merkel, Steinmeier, and Gabriel?

There is an old saying which goes,

 "Birds of a feather, Flock together".

And so it is with Putin and Yanukovich, the ex-Ukrainian president now enjoying the protection of Putin in Moscow after fleeing Ukraine in 2014.

As reported by Maxim Tucker,

"Ukraine’s former president paid bribes worth at least $2 billion (£1.4 billion) during his four years in office – amounting to almost $1.4 million for every day he was in power – according to evidence handed to investigators.
...
A logbook has emerged listing the bribes paid to former and serving Ukrainian officials. In particular, election commissioners were handsomely rewarded in return for guaranteeing victory for Mr Yanukovych’s Party of Regions in the parliamentary election of 2012." (Daily Telegraph : 31 May 2016) (my emphasis)

Like Yanukovich, an avalanche of evidence points to the fact that Putin is a  master of theft and 'corruption' who, unlike Yanukovich, skilfully conceals his thefts from the Russian people.

 

(cf. also : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgDCRegyo7Q)

And yet, as reported by Der Spiegel staff (Matthias Gebauer, Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Ruben Rehage, Michael Sauga and Christoph Schult), on the EU sanctions against Putin,

"Berlin is [now] prepared to make concessions to Moscow 

...

The Chancellery also supports the new approach. Thus far, it was the Social Democrats that were particularly vocal about rapprochement with Russia. Led by Economics Minister Gabriel, the SPD is Merkel's junior coalition partner. While Steinmeier, also a senior SPD member, has never explicitly demanded the easing of sanctions, he has long supported Russia's return to the G-7. Merkel, by contrast, had always maintained a hard line. Now, though, the Chancellery also appears to be changing course." (Der Spiegel : May 30, 2016) (my emphasis) (right: Steinmeier, Gabriel, Merkel)

And whilst this Putinversteher German cabal are shifting towards making concessions to Putin, thus fuelling the calls of  Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi,  Austrian Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner, and French Economics Minister Emmanuel Macron, including Alex Tsipras of Greece and officials of Spain and Portugal, that sanctions against Russia be lifted,

"Poland says it will start recruiting in September for a new 35,000-strong paramilitary defence force because of tensions with Russia." (BBC News : 3 June 2016) 

This comes on the back of an increase in fighting in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Live 112 TV,

"Russian-backed militants in Donbas attacked Ukraine’s Armed Forces at least 49 times over the past 24 hours, ATO (Anti-Terroristic Operation) press center reports.
In Donetsk direction, militants shelled Ukrainian military with 120 mm mortars. They also attacked strongholds near Pisky and Opytne.

Increased military activity has been reported in Mariupol direction, where Russian-backed militants attacked Ukrainian military at least 31 times. Near Novotroitske, Ukrainian positions were hit with 120 mm mortars, near Pavlopol – with 82 mm mortars." (Live 112 TV : 3 June 2016)

Furthermore,

"[Ravina] Shamdasani (right), [UN press-secretary of human rights], expressed concern about the increasing number of heavy military equipment near the contact line in the Donetsk region.

"We have received credible reports on the movement of Russian troops across the border into the territory of Ukraine (Donbas - Ed.), as well as across the country, - she said.

Shamdasani added: "This also applies to heavy weapons. Moreover, it is a quite reliable reports." (Live 112 TV : 5 June 2016) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Ukrainians are being shelled by Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel-proxies operating in the Donbas, Merkel yesterday, at her CDU Party Conference, explicitly supported Putin by referring to Russia's war with Ukraine as,

"....  'civil war, with the support of Russia'" (Live 112 TV : 4 June 2016) (my emphasis)

This statement must have sent a 'cold chill' down the spines of  the Baltic States, Poland, and, most of all, the Ukrainian authorities.

This is the LIE that Putin has peddled since the start of the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his pouring of thousands of Russian soldiers into the Donbas!

Merkel has finally let the mask slip from her face. How, otherwise, would she say at this conference that,

"I am convinced that Russia is gradually, step by step moving towards a common European economic area from Lisbon to Vladivostok", - she said " (ibid Live 112 TV : 4 June 2016)

Merkel's platitudes about 'EU principles in the face of Russian aggression' rings rather hollow!

"... such aspirations [a common European economic area from Lisbon to Vladivostok] can not force the EU to give up its principles in the face of Russian aggression." (ibid Live 112 TV : 4 June 2016)

 

German 'economic' jackboots marching over Ukraine circa 2016

Let us not forget that,"...Angela Merkel has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess who went on to expand Russia’s territory to the west and the south, including Crimea." (Patrick Donahue and Tino Andresen : Bloomberg : March 4, 2014)

Let us remind ourselves that,

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it" (George Santayana)

(to be continued)

Putin 'buying off' Alexis Tsipras to try to get the EU sanctions lifted

Andy Dabilis reported last Sunday that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin, with top ministers in tow, will be in Greece for a two-day visit next week to discuss business ventures.
...
It will be the first visit Putin has made to Athens in nine years and he will bring with him a delegation of business leaders, Kathimerini said, including those who want to invest in Greece just when the country needs it most during a crushing economic crisis." (The National Herald : 22 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

And so it was that Putin arrived yesterday (27 May, 2016) with his entourage in tow, an entourage that included not only businessmen, but also some of Putin's key Kremlin kleptocratic 'siloviki' viz. Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller and Russian Railways CEO Oleg Belozerov, who will lead the business group. Also in tow was none other than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. (below: Miller, Bazrov, & Lavrov)

Recall that in April of 2015, Alexis Tsipras ran to Putin during the height of the Greek economic crisis, seeking to obtain loans to bail him out.

It would now seem that it is Putin running to Tsipras to ensure that the EU sanctions against him and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' Kremlin clique are NOT renewed this coming July, or that they are 'watered' down in light of the dire straits in which the Russian economy is floundering.

Why, otherwise, is Putin suddenly visiting Greece after and absence of NINE years?

The press conference that the 'dapper' Putin and the 'contrived PR image of a tie-less' Tsipras held yesterday (May 27,2016), stripped of its diplomatic flummery about historical ties and 'comrades-in-arms' trade partners, simply boils down to Tsipras being bought to ensure that the the EU sanctions against Russia are NOT renewed this July.

After all, as Tsipras himself said in this press conference,

"Tourism in the backbone of our economy.... Greece must become the hot-spot for Russian Tourists"

And corrupt Russians are obliging. Tsipras has opened the doors of Greece to corrupt millions flowing from Russia into the hotel industry in Greece.

It can also be no co-incidence that, on the SAME day that Putin arrived in Greece, that Putinversteher

"Steinmeier on Friday floated the possibility of a "step by step" reduction of sanctions but only if there is progress on ending the conflict in Ukraine." (AFP : 27 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Putin is 'buying off' Tsipras, and Walter Steinmeier, the current Chairman of the OSCE, is 'floating' the idea of a "step by step" reduction of EU sanctions against Russia, 

"This week, separatist forces launched an artillery attack that caused the most Ukrainian national casualties in a year. Seven soldiers were killed and nine were wounded in a 24-hour period that ended Tuesday, according to Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council. 

Separatists on Friday launched 28 attacks on Ukrainian forces, Ukraine’s defense ministry reported." ( Oren Dorell : USA Today : May 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is 'buying off' Alexis Tsipras, and Walter Steinmeier is beginning to slowly dismantle the EU sanctions against Russia,

"Ukraine intends to cement a free trade agreement with Turkey on balanced and mutually beneficial conditions and increase the flow of Turkish investments into Ukrainian economy by the end of this year." (UT : May. 13, 2016) whilst at the same time,

"Ukraine and Canada hope to complete the negotiating procedures on the free trade deal between the two countries by summer 2016." (UT : May. 10, 2016)

As Ukraine is slowly and falteringly ridding itself of its corrupt past, and painfully laying down the foundations of a free and democratic society, Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique, for whom he has now created their own Praetorian guard to protect themselves from the Russian people, now has to run to Greece for help in getting rid of the EU sanctions against Russia, to stave off an even deeper economic crisis towards which the Russian economy is heading.

(to be continued)

Putin praying for a Trump victory

It was to be expected that Putin's rebels in Donbas and eastern Ukraine would be vehemently against an armed OSCE mission to oversee any elections that may be held as per the Minsk2 accords.

"The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) are strongly against the idea of deploying an armed police OSCE mission in Donbass, eastern Ukraine, according to DPR envoy to the Minsk Contact Group Denis Pushilin. (right)
Donetsk News Agency quoted Pushilin as saying that just as before, Donbass is expressly against any armed missions on the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and would consider such a move an intervention." (RT : 24 May, 2016) (my emphasis)

Recall that, as reported by Interfax Ukraine,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that international partners support Ukraine's idea about the deployment of an armed peacekeeping mission in Donbas.
....
"At the moment, the main result that we have achieved is that both the OSCE and our partners from Germany and France, and an absolute majority of OSCE countries, and yesterday there was the statement by the defense minister of Turkey – everyone clearly say that they support Ukraine's position on the deployment of an armed police mission," (Interfax Ukraine : 14.05.2016) (my emphasis)

It was therefore to be expected that, as reported by Madeline Chambers, in a conference call that included Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and France's Francois Hollande, and that took place late on Monday,

"Progress on implementing the Minsk peace accords, negotiated by Berlin and Paris, has stalled. The elections are a key step in the agreement designed to end a conflict that has killed more than 9,000 people since April, 2014.

Moscow and Kiev accuse each other of failing to stick to the deal, which also includes restoring Kiev's control over the whole border with Russia and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the conflict zone.

"In the center of the consultations were security questions and the preparations for local elections in the conflict areas in eastern Ukraine," said German government spokesman Steffen Seibert (right) in a statement." (Reuters : Tue May 24, 2016)
 
At the same time, as reported by Al Arabiya,

"The call [for a ceasefire between Putin's soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine] comes as a Ukrainian soldier was killed and three others injured in a mortar attack by pro-Russian insurgents in the country’s east, where violence has persisted since the peace treaty." (Al Arabiya (AFP) : Tuesday, 24 May 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: UT May. 22, 2016)

The sixty-four dollar question that really needs to be answered by Merkel, Putin, and Hollande is,

"How can elections be held in eastern Ukraine whilst approximately 10,000 of Putin's Russian soldiers are there on active duty, and whilst armaments from Russia are still pouring across the Ukrainian/Russian border controlled by his soldiers and into the rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine?"

Now bear in mind that the current President of the OSCE is non other than that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier. (left) 

Will Steinmeier back the call for an armed OSCE mission into the rebel-held territory to oversee the elections that Merkel and Hollande have always been clamouring for?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly!"

This fixation by Hollande and Merkel on the implementation of the Minsk2 protocol about elections in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine, to the almost mutual exclusion of returning the border between Putin's Russia and Ukraine back into the control of Ukraine, and the total removal of the near 10,000 Russian soldiers from eastern Ukraine, together with all their military equipment,, indicates yet again the pressure being brought to bear upon Hollande and Merkel by French and German businessmen.

No matter how much Putin tries to gloss over the tanking of the Russian economy, the growing impoverishment of vast swathes of the Russian people and the near 'paranoid' fear that now surrounds his kleptocratic solivoki 'family', has forced him to create his Praetorian Guard of 400,000.

It is therefor no wonder that Putin's most fervent and wishful hope of a Trump success in the US presidential elections also stems from the fact that Trump's current main political advisor, Paul Manafort, was also political advisor to none other than Victor Yanukovich  himself, as revealed by Prof. Timothy Snyder. (left to right: Manafort, Trump, Yanukovich)

The election of Trump to the Presidency of the US will, for Putin, be like 'manna falling from heaven'. We can expect an almost immediate US review of the sanctions against Russia.

As Timothy Snyder points out,

"... Trump has indicated, in his selection last month of Carter Page (right) as a foreign policy adviser, that American policy to Europe will be guided by Russian interests. 

Page, heretofore known as an adviser to Russia’s state gas company, has been among the prominent Americans spreading Russian propaganda about Ukraine’s revolution in 2014 and the Russian invasion that followed. In his writings he has questioned Ukraine’s status as an independent state, which is precisely the line that Moscow took to justify its invasion. (New York Review : April 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

We will know in November of this year, in just over 5 months time, whether the Maidan revolution will be crowned with success or failure.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy is crumbling in his hands

For months now, Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian President, has been calling for the OSCE to have an armed mission in the Russian and rebel held territory of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Now, as we approach the renewal of EU sanctions against Putin in July, the call to hold elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, as called for in Minsk2, is beginning to reach a crescendo.

Significantly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland surprisingly flew into Moscow,

" ... just a day before the Trilateral Contact Group meets in Minsk to try to break a political deadlock over holding elections in Ukraine’s east, known as the Donbas, where Russia-backed rebels control large swathes of territory.
...
The State Department said Nuland would meet with senior Russian government officials to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine and the next steps to implement the Minsk agreements." (Daniel Schearf : VoA : May 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is further significant at this point in time is that the need for an armed OSCE monitoring of such elections is now being supported by a growing group of both EU countries and from countries on the international scene.

As reported by Interfax Ukraine,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that international partners support Ukraine's idea about the deployment of an armed peacekeeping mission in Donbas.
....
"At the moment, the main result that we have achieved is that both the OSCE and our partners from Germany and France, and an absolute majority of OSCE countries, and yesterday there was the statement by the defense minister of Turkey – everyone clearly say that they support Ukraine's position on the deployment of an armed police mission," (Interfax Ukraine : 14.05.2016) (my emphasis)

Even the propaganda sheet of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebels proxies in Donetsk have, interestingly, reported that,

" ... the Minister of National Defense of Turkey Ismet Yylmaz noted that Turkey supports the idea of expansion of the armed police mission under the auspices of OSCE in Donbass." (Dninews : 19.05.2016) (my emphasis)

And in-between reporting these developments, Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine have,

"At dawn, militants used heavy artillery to attack Ukrainian Armed Forces. Near Novomykhailivka pro-Russian separatists shelled from 152 mm artillery systems, near Krasnohorivka – from 82 mm mortars.
During the day, a pro-Russian sniper operated against Ukrainian military in Avdiivka.

In Mariupol direction, near Pavlopol, Ukrainian forces were shelled from 120 mm mortars.
In Luhansk region, militants used grenade launchers and small arms to shell Ukrainian positions near Novozvanivka." (Live 112 TV : 18 May 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Nolan Peterson that,

"The Ukrainian military is not the only group trumpeting warnings about a potential spike in the war.

For weeks, international monitors have reported a slight increase in cease-fire violations around the separatist stronghold of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, as well as sporadic fighting along the length of the 200-mile-long front lines in Ukraine’s southeastern Donbas region, which borders Russia." (Newsweek : 4/10/16) (cf also : OSCE 16/5/2016)

It should also not be forgotten that Putin has ammassed 40,000 Russian troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as his 10,000 Russian troops operating in eastern Ukraine, whilst also carrying the economic burden of supporting his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine.

This raises the critical question of, "How many armed police should be sent to eastern Ukraine to effectively monitor any elections being held there?"

Furthermore, in light of the severe economic recession now gripping Putin's Russia, for how long can Putin allow much needed funds in Russia itself to be drained towards his rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine? 


A year ago it was reported by Anna Dolgov (left) in the Moscow Times that,

"Russia has spent 53 billion rubles from state coffers in the 10 months of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to estimates by the head of macroeconomic studies at the esteemed Higher School of Economics, Sergei Aleksashenko, one of the co-authors of the report, according to RBC." (Moscow Times : May. 12 2015)

How much Putin now continues to spend to prop up his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine is really anybody's guess.

And, unfortunately for Putin, his gamble that the up-coming EU extension of the sanctions against him may be dropped now seems doomed to failure.

As reported by Gabriela Baczynska (left), 

"The European Union is on track to renew economic sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine when they expire in July, though an extension could be contested and only short-term, diplomats and officials said. 
...
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told German newspaper Die Welt on Thursday she expected the energy, financial and defense sanctions to be renewed.
 ...
"If Ukraine does its homework and Russia continues to be an obstacle, then an extension of the sanctions shouldn't be a problem," a senior German official said. "Renzi may not be the big hurdle in the sanctions debate that he has been." (Reuters : Thu May 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And lest we forget ...

(to be continued)