Can Putin disentangle himself from the "Scarlet Thread of Maidan"?

In my blog entry of 19 July, 2016, I wrote that, 

"And at last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)"

I further wrote that,

"Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military."

It is now emerging, as reported by Mark Hosenball (left), that,

"Investigators probing whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with Russia have been questioning witnesses about events at the 2016 Republican National Convention, according to two sources familiar with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiries." (Reuters : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis)

Specifically, Mueller is investigating the 'watering down' of  Diana Denman's proposal calling for increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military" at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee that were made by Manafort, and other Trump cohorts, in collusion with Putin's Russian operatives at the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Yet again is the 'Scarlet Thread Of Maidan', the thread that led to the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck, once more bubbling to the surface of the Mueller investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US Presidential elections, which led to Trump now occupying the White House.

At the same time, the current US Omnibus Spending Bill, which Trump recently signed into law, contains, as reported by Dan Merica (left),

" ... a direct message to President Donald Trump: Russia needs to be punished.
...
The so-called omnibus spending bill, which the Senate passed just after midnight early Friday morning, includes measures that bar a host of federal agencies from engaging with Russia and sanctions the country for a vast series of grievances.
...

One section bars money from funding a program that Russia participates in by stating money should "not be used for officials of the central government of Russia."

 ...

Another section punishes Russia for its 2014 annexation of Crimea by barring funds from going to support any countries that back the annexation, and directs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to push Americans on certain financial boards to disallow funds from flowing to programs supportive of Russia's annexation." (CNN : March 23, 2018) (my emphasis)

The millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck has thus grown heavier.

And it is this millstone around his neck that is now forcing Putin to agree, together with Angela Merkel,  Petro Poroshenko, and Emmanuel Macron to,

" ..... examine ways to speed up progress on a peace plan for eastern Ukraine and end a conflict that triggered sanctions against Russia.

 ...
The four countries pledged to “search in the months ahead for possible solutions to accelerate the implementation” of the Minsk [2] accords, which laid out military and political steps to end the conflict between Ukraine’s government and pro-Russian separatists.to speeding up" (Gregory Viscusi: Bloomberg : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis) 

But can Putin disentangle himself from the "Scarlet Thread of Maidan"?

(to be continued)

Wither now the Putin-Trump bromance?

Hardly had Putin time to congratulate himself on his success in rigging the recent Russian presidential elections on 18 March that got him re-elected, when the international storm clouds against his attempt to assassinate Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury, England, began to gather.

As reported by BBC News,

"The United States and its European allies are expelling dozens of Russian diplomats in a co-ordinated response to the poisoning of a former Russian spy in the UK.

...

It is said to be the largest collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history.
More than 20 countries have aligned with the UK, expelling more than 100 diplomats." (BBC News : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)

These expulsions of Russian diplomats comes close on the heels of Putin's latest 'maskirova' strategy in his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Sources in the Russian foreign ministry say that Putin is ready to make Eastern Ukraine an area controlled by an interim international administration—as was the case in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Kosovo. However, he is not ready to make concessions on the Crimean issue. “It’s only fair,” Putin responds to all foreign partners when they ask about Crimea, Time reports" (UNIAN : 25 March 2018) (my emphasis)

To which Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (left),  Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, responded that,

"I believe we have a large number of red lines, which in no case we can afford to cross," she said at a briefing, according to an UNIAN correspondent.
...
"And I will believe in the sincerity of Putin's intentions to really move toward a peaceful settlement in Donbas only if we stop seeing all these manipulations around the issue of either the deployment of peacekeepers on some absolutely surreal conditions set by the Kremlin, or the introduction of an interim administration. I believe this will also be offered by the Kremlin amid some surreal intentions and principles," she said. (UNIAN : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine, recently announced that,

"We are particularly committed to NATO membership. Our goal is to become a member of the Alliance in the next decade," Poroshenko said." (UKRINFORM: 28 March 2018) (my emphasis)

And as also reported by UNIAN,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the National Guard of Ukraine will play a leading role in the Joint Forces Operation in Donbas. "Today, when we are changing the format of the operation to return control over the seized territories in accordance with the law... the role of the National Guard in the liberation of Donbas remains extremely important," Poroshenko said" (UNIAN : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest diplomatic 'maskirovka' strategy is thus dead in the water even as he announced it.

Added to which,

"The European security organization responsible for monitoring the deadly conflict between government forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine will reintroduce its long-range drone program more than a year and a half after it was dropped due to repeated shoot-downs." (Christopher Miller (right): RFERL : March 27, 2018) (my emphasis)

This re-introduction of long-range drones by the OSCE is to monitor both the continuation of ceasefire violations by Putin's soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, as well as the continuous supply of weaponry and arms from Russia into the Donbas.

(Drone footage: Andrii Rymaruk)

What is further adding to Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki's' headaches is the discovery that the current US Omnibus Spending Bill, which Trump recently signed into law, contains, as reported by Dan Merica (left),

" ... a direct message to President Donald Trump: Russia needs to be punished.
...
The so-called omnibus spending bill, which the Senate passed just after midnight early Friday morning, includes measures that bar a host of federal agencies from engaging with Russia and sanctions the country for a vast series of grievances.
...

One section bars money from funding a program that Russia participates in by stating money should "not be used for officials of the central government of Russia."

 ...

Another section punishes Russia for its 2014 annexation of Crimea by barring funds from going to support any countries that back the annexation, and directs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to push Americans on certain financial boards to disallow funds from flowing to programs supportive of Russia's annexation." (CNN : March 23, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

Trump was TOTALLY unaware that he was signing these sanctions against Putin into law.

 Wither now the Putin-Trump bromance? 

(to be continued)

Putin's headaches have not disappeared with his 'win' in the sham Russian presidential elections.

As was to be expected, Putin won his election yesterday but not without,

".... independent election monitoring group Golos [reporting] hundreds of irregularities. They include webcams at polling stations obstructed by balloons and other obstacles, as this video from the Siberian city of Kemerovo posted by the group demonstrates: March 18, 2018

But Ella Pamfilova (right), head of the Central Electoral Commission, said there were only half as many reported violations compared to 2012, and that none had been serious." (BBC News : 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

The biggest election violation yesterday is the fact that this election was also held in Ukrainian Crimea.

At the UN, Ukrainian UN representative Volodymyr Yelchenko (left) appealed,

" ....  to the leadership of the United Nations in relation to the holding by the Russian Federation of presidential elections in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
...
"Ambassador Yelchenko in a letter to the UN Secretary-General, President of the Security Council and UN membership: Russian presidential elections in the occupied Crimea violate the UN Charter. The outcome of such illegal elections will be null and void," (UNIAN : 17 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

Already,

"Paris does not recognize the election of the Russian president in the illegally annexed Crimea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France says the country supports sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Radio Liberty reports." (UNIAN : 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

Similarly,

"A number of individual countries and the European Union have already confirmed that they will not recognize the election results in the area. The relevant statement has already been made by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini. Canada, Estonia and Norway also expressed their position on non-recognition of Crimea elections." (ibid UNIAN 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

Together with Pamfilova's admission of widespread election violations, removing the Ukrainian Crimean results from Putin's 'victory'  rather throws into strong relief the suspicion that the Kremlin results are grossly underestimating the simmering public discontent with Putin.

Putin's election win also comes in the wake of his attempted assasination of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, UK. As reported by Alice Klein,

"The poison used to target ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury was a Novichok nerve agent, UK prime minister Theresa May revealed yesterday.
...
Novichok nerve agents – also known as the “N-series” – were secretly developed by the former Soviet Union beginning in the 1970s." (New Scientist : 13 March 201) (my emphasis)

Rather desperately, Putin is trying to pin the source of his nerve agent on other countries.

"The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Sweden are all rejecting a suggestion by a Russian spokeswoman that the nerve agent which poisoned a former Russian double agent and his daughter might have originated in their countries.

...

The claim was made Saturday by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (left), who told Russia-24 television that the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Britain or Sweden were likely sources of the nerve agent." (ABC News (Associated Press) : Mar 17, 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The Trump administration confirmed Thursday it was enacting the new sanctions on Russia, including individuals indicted last month by special counsel Robert Mueller, in a sweeping new effort to punish Moscow for its attempts to interfere in the 2016 US election." (Laura Smith-Spark and Radina Gigova : CNN : March 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's headaches have not disappeared with his 'win' in the sham Russian presidential elections.

If anything, his uncertainties continue to grow apace.

And this is when he is at his most dangerous.

(to be continued)

The 'scarlet thread of Maidan' continues to bind Putin and Trump tightly together.

Whilst Putin is 'boringly' waiting to win the Russian presidential race next week, win, Trump is frantically trying to untangle himself from the 'scarlet thread of Maidan that tightly binds himself and Putin together by announcing that he will be having a 'clean reset' of the White house.

 This 'clean reset' may mean the removal of the White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, and National Security Adviser H.R, McMaster (right: Kelly and McMaster), but lurking beneath this 'clean reset' is

the removal of US Attorney General, Jeff Sessions (left), which will set the scene for the removal of Mueller from the investigation into the Putin-Trump 'collusion' during the 2016 US Presidential elections, 'collusion' that got Trump into the White house, and with Putin's payback being the removal of those US sanctions against himself  because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Putin's 'boredom' regarding the upcoming Russian presidential elections is being offset, however, by the news that,

"The European Commission is moving closer to approving a 1 billion-euro ($1.22 billion) financial package to Ukraine, although officials are awaiting further signs from Kyiv to ensure that its reform process remains on track before the funds will be delivered.
...
He said commissioners were likely to give final approval next week, then send the plan to the European Council and European Parliament for their approval." (Rikard Jozwiak (right): RFERL : February 28, 2018) (my emphasis) 

And, as reported by Timothy Ash (left) this approval has now been granted. 

"With the European Union’s  High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini coming to Kyiv on March 11-12, a new 1 billion euro financial aid package gives her something to sign off on." (Timothy Ash : KyivPost : March 9, 2018) 

Putin may be spitting nails at the approval of this financial package for Ukraine, but let us not forget that, as reported by Illia Ponomarenko,
 
"Russia has successfully positioned its troops to launch a rapid invasion of Ukraine from the north and east, according to a March 8 report by the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based defense think tank." (KyivPost : March 9, 2018) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by UNIAN,

"...compared to early 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces have improved considerably. First of all, the Ukrainian Army is now a 250,000-strong force against a modest 157,000 troops back in 2014." (UNIAN : 28 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which, they now have Javelin anti-tank missile systems at their disposal.

And now,

"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has recognized Ukraine as an aspirant country. 
...
Currently, four partner countries have declared their aspirations to NATO membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Ukraine," reads the statement on NATO' website." (UNIAN: 10 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

On the Trump front, things are not looking good for Putin either.

It now transpires that shortly after Trump returned from the 2013 Miss Universe competition in Moscow, Putin had a lacquered box containing a sealed letter from himself delivered to Trump. (Lawrence O'Donnell : MSNBC: 8 March, 2018: )

What is rather intriguing about this 'lacquered box with its sealed letter to Trump from Putin' is :

"Just how did Special Prosecutor Mueller find out about this?"

Interestingly, Putin's "sealed" letter in that lacquered box was delivered to Trump just after he had returned from his 2013 "Moscow Miss Universe" competition.

The Steele Dossier contains some rather 'salacious' details about Donald Trump's cavortings whilst he was in Moscow overseeing his 2013 "Miss Universe" competition.

Does that 'sealed letter' from Putin tell Donald Trump that he has all that 'dirt' on him during his 2013 stay in Moscow?

Is this why Donald Trump seems to be scared almost  "witless" about saying anything negative about Putin?

And now 'Stormy Daniels', a 'lady of the night' with whom Trump had a torrid relationship, now threatens to reveal all, INCLUDING videos of the antics they got up to when together.

Is this why Trump has 'suddenly' pronounced a "clean reset" of the White House to try to deflect the eyes of the American public from what Stormy Daniels may reveal?

No doubt for many years to come people will be pondering exactly what details that 2013 'privately' delivered letter from Putin to Trump may contain.

The 'scarlet thread of Maidan' continues to bind them tightly together.

(to be continued)

Both Putin and Trump are now like 'cats on a hot tin roof'

The late Harold Wilson once remarked that, "A week is a long time in politics". For both Putin and Trump this may, indeed, have seemed like a " ... long week in politics".

As reported by Kenneth Rapoza,

"Ukraine finally gets a win against Russia.

State-owned gas company, Naftogaz, was awarded $2.5 billion in a lengthy, ugly legal battle with Russian gas behemoth Gazprom. The Stockholm Arbitral Tribunal ruled Wednesday on a years old dispute regarding natural gas transit fees in favor of the Ukrainians.  Gazprom said they will appeal the ruling." (Forbes : March 1, 2018) (my emphasis)

Spitting nails at this result, Putin immediately refused to deliver more gas to Ukraine.

As reported by the BBC,

"Ukraine has told all schools and higher education institutions to close in an effort to save gas, after its Russian supplier refused to deliver more fuel.

 ...
Gazprom made the announcement after a Stockholm court ruled against it at the end of a long-running legal battle. (BBC : 2 March, 2018)

Adding to Putin's anger Tyler Rogoway (left) reports that,

"...the U.S. State Department cleared Ukraine to purchase FGM-148 Javelin advanced anti-tank missiles.  

According to Defense News the $47M deal includes 210 Javelin missiles, 37 command launch units (CLU) and two spares, as well as training, logistics and support. This would be the first time the United States has agreed to provide advanced lethal weaponry to Ukraine since the conflict began [in 2014]. (The Drive : March 1, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

But there is more to come.

It now transpires that Putin's 'Kerch Bridge' is beginning to sink!

As reported by Paradox,

"Just a week ago in the article “Kerch bridge is another step towards the collapse made” I wrote why glad to establish railway spans on the Kerch bridge. And the main reason is called the total weight of railway construction in 17 400 tons, which will put additional pressure on the supports that will entail is them sagging and subsequent problems.

And here, it hasn’t even been six months, and, again, only a week and the first signal of problems on the mountain-the bridge has already begun." (The Mice Times of Asia : 15.02.2018) (my emphasis)

(Full Igor Korsakov video)

As early as January of this year Halya Coynash (left) reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called construction of a bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea a “historic mission.” He should pay better attention to history. This mission is doomed to failure, and not only because of sanctions. Experts warn that even if the bridge now under construction can be finished, its chances of standing for any length of time are small.

... in December 2016, Yury Medovar from Russia’s Academy of Sciences said that the [Kerch] bridge is being built without a proper design, since nobody wants to take responsibility for it. The bridge cannot be built, he said, and God help us if it is, since it can’t last." (The Atlantic Council : January 10, 2018) (my emphasis)

Trying to avert the eyes of the Russian public from the sinking of the Kerch Bridge, even before it is fully completed, Putin tried to flex his 'nuclear muscles' before the West.

All, however, to no avail.

Putin's bluster about his new nuclear arsenal in his Presidential pre-election speech before the Russian public was pure Russian 'maskirovka'.

As Rob Dannenberg (left) explains,

" 'Maskirovka' is a key element in the current Russian doctrine of hybrid warfare as articulated in the so-called Gerasimov Doctrine. This doctrine calls for the integration of information operations, cyber proxies, overt economic influence, and clandestine influence agents to support the military objective" (The Cipher : November 8, 2017) (my emphasis)

Unlike Putin's 'maskirovka' bluster, as reported by UNIAN,

"...compared to early 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces have improved considerably. First of all, the Ukrainian Army is now a 250,000-strong force against a modest 157,000 troops back in 2014.
.....
At the same time, at the beginning of Russian aggression, only some 6,000 military—right about a size of a single brigade—were in fully combat-ready and resolute to execute the political leadership’s orders. While no drills were held at brigade or regimental levels in 2013, the White Book of Ukraine’s ministry of defense logged 20 brigade-level exercises in 2016, while ground forces conducted 26 exercises at the brigade level in 2017." (UNIAN : 28 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which, they now have Javelin anti-tank missile systems at their disposal.

If Putin was  having a 'bad political week', so too was Trump.

Trump's White House is now unravelling at a fast pace.

 And, like Putin, Trump is trying to avert the eyes of the American public from the near 'meltdown' of his White House administration towards his call for a 'Trade War', a call that is causing serious consternation amongst countries worldwide.

Both Putin and Trump are now like 'cats on a hot tin roof'

(to be continued)

The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

In 2014 Toni Frisch (left), Swiss Ambassador 

and the Chair of the Military and Civil Defense Assets Consultative Group of the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG), gave a presentation to the OSCE. 

The OSCE has published no information about this presentation except to state that,

"The views, opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this document [ Toni Frisch's presentation] are not given nor necessarily endorsed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) unless the OSCE is explicitly defined as the Author of this document." (OSCE : 20 May, 2014)

Fast forward to yesterday [14 February 2018] and Toni Frisch is now the OSCE special representative to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk.

First Deputy Speaker of [Ukrainian] Parliament, Iryna Gerashchenko (left) now informs us that,

" ....  the Ukrainian representatives in Minsk today were confused with "the strange fact that the OSCE coordinator Toni Frisch, as it turned out, had met with Vladislav Surkov's adviser in Moscow and did not inform the group and the TCG about the meeting or its outcome." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov (left) preceded, as reported by UNIAN, that,

"The working groups of the trilateral contact group on Ukraine have gathered in Minsk for talks, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The talks will be followed by a meeting of the trilateral contact group, BelTA reported." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This recent secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov also comes amidst the fact that, as reported by Henry Ridgwell,

"A U.N. peacekeeping force in eastern Ukraine could pave the way for local elections within a year, according to a new report that aims to build on international momentum behind establishing such a mission.

...

The new report, commissioned by former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen (right), now an adviser to Ukraine's president, calls for a peacekeeping force of 20,000 soldiers from non-NATO countries, led by Sweden." (VOA : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The fact that Rasmussen excludes NATO countries from participating in this peacekeeping force will rather wrong-foot Putin.

Which excuse, now, will Putin be able to muster to reject Rasmussen's proposal given that he, himself, first suggested in September, 2017, that,

"Russia will ask the U.N. Security Council to send peacekeepers to patrol the front line in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, a development greeted by Germany as a new opportunity for detente." (Nataliya Vasilyeva : US News (AP) : Sept. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as Rasmussen is proposing a UN peacekeeping force of 20,000 in the Donbas,  UNIAN reports that,

"Today another 2500 Night Vision Devices were transferred to our partners in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine wrote on Facebook.

...

It was also reported that the draft federal budget of the United States of America for 2019 provides for the allocation of $200 million for strengthening Ukraine's security and defense." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The exposure of the Frisch-Surkov secret meeting, together with the Rasmussen proposal of a 20,000 non-NATO peace-keeping force in the Donbas, and more US military equipment both arriving in, and promised to, Ukraine, rather puts into perspective the weak threats of Putin, as mouthed by his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

[More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis) (blog entry 12 February)] 

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that the American public is now becoming more aware of the direct link between Putin's fervent wish to have US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' scrapped, and his collusion with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, that led to Trump now sitting in the White House.

And more disconcerting for both Trump and Putin is the fact that the more 'salacious' details in the Christopher Steele dossier have indirect corroborating evidence from Trump's cavorting with a US 'lady of the night', "Stormy Daniels" (right), and the 'hush money' paid to her to keep quiet a month before the 2016 US presidential elections. 

Is the public exposure by Putin of those 'salacious' video-details of Trump in the Christopher Steele dossier his 'black-mailing' card against Trump?

The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)