Will Trump now finally concede Ukraine's Crimea to Putin?

Hardly has the dust settled on the defeat of Trump and the Republicans to retain control of the US House of Congress when Trump, in his infinite 'wisdom' (sic), decided to get rid of his attorney general, who had disqualified himself from overseeing the Mueller investigation into how Putin helped Trump gain the keys of the White House, and summarily replaced his sacked attorney general with an ardent Trump supporter.

And as Trump was sacking Jeff Sessions, his attorney general who disqualified himself from overseeing the Mueller investigation, UNIAN reports that,

"The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine has spotted the amassing of heavy weapons at five training areas in occupied Donbas." (UNIAN : 08 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that at a press conference after the Republicans lost the House of Congress, Donald Trump,

"... blamed the “regime” of former President Barack Obama for Ukraine’s loss of its Crimean Peninsula, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014." (UNIAN : 8 November, 2018) (my emphasis) (Full Trump Press Conference after mid-term results)

And whilst Trump was Blaming President Obama for Putin seizing and annexing Ukraine's Crimea,

"Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (right) condemned Russia for what they called the illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula." (Radio Poland : 03:11:2018) (my emphasis)

Also during this press conference of Merkel and Morawiecki , Merkel lamented the, "lack of success of implementing the Minsk2 Agreement ". (YouTube)

Now recall that this meeting between Merkel and the Polish Prime Minister follows closely on the heels of Merkel meeting with Ukraine's President Poroshenko.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (1/11/2018),

"Fast forward to November 1, 2018 and we have Angela Merkel visiting Ukraine for the first time since 2014.
...
That the primary focus of this meeting will revolve around bilateral economic relations between Germany and Ukraine, with Putin's war with Ukraine, and his illegal occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, relegated to "other important topics to be discussed", signifies that 'Putinversteher' Merkel is now trying to compensate Poroshenko for the economic losses that Ukraine will suffer when Nord Stream2 turns Germany into the gas hub for the EU." (Blog : 1/11/2018)

Since Merkel's political position and stature is fast waning in BOTH Germany and the EU, to the obvious delight of President Macron of France who hankers to replace her as the leading politician of the EU, whatever political pronouncements Merkel may make about the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia will now begin to fall on deaf ears.

 More disturbingly, however, those EU states which have always clamored for the removal of the EU sanctions against Putin, sanctions that were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, now find themselves in a stronger position to remove those EU sanctions. 

So when Merkel laments the, "lack of success of implementing the Minsk2 Agreement", in essence she is finally admitting that Minsk2 is, in reality, a 'dead horse'!

This admission of Merkel has implications for the scheduled meeting between Trump and Putin at the upcoming G20 summit to be held in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month.

Will Trump now finally concede Ukraine's Crimea to Putin? 

Trump has already stated that,

"... he can override a directive from congress preventing him from recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea." (Tom Embury-Dennis : The Independent : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding,

"The [US] Treasury Department announcing sanctions against two individuals and one entity for "serious human rights abuses" and sanctions on another eight entities and one individual responsible for advancing Russian interests in Crimea." (Nicole Gaouette and Donna Borak (right): CNN : November 8, 2018) (my emphasis),

the fact that Trump has summarily replaced his sacked attorney general with an ardent Trump supporter, without following the correct procedure, tells us that his belief that he can simply override the US Congress if he so wishes will determine whether he concedes Ukraine's Crimea to Putin.

However, unlike their meeting in Helsinki, where secrecy prevailed about what was discussed between Putin and Trump, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month can now be scrutinized by a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party.

Trump is now staring into the abyss of impeachment. And he knows it!

(to be continued)

The upcoming US mid-term elections will be a decisive day for both Trump and Putin.

In 2014, in a telephone conversation with the then US President, Barack Obama, Tony Paterson reported that,

"Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to have become “really annoyed” about Russian President Vladimir Putin and has questioned whether he “was still in touch with reality.”

The German mass circulation Bild newspaper wrote on Monday that during a telephone conversation she held with US President Barack Obama to discuss the growing crisis in Ukraine she complained that Mr Putin was “living in another world.” (The Telegraph : 3 March, 2014) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to November 1, 2018 and we have Angela Merkel visiting Ukraine for the first time since 2014.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The chancellor will be met by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko with military honors, according to the Federal Government's official website. The joint meeting will focus on bilateral relations between Germany and Ukraine, it said. 

Other important topics will include hostilities in the east of Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Merkel will also meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman. They will discuss bilateral, economic, and international issues." (UNIAN : 26 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

It is significant to note that this impending meeting between Merkel and Poroshenko follows closely on the heels of

• the U.S. not intending to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2.." (UA112 : 19 September, 2018), and,
•  all works on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in German territorial waters are scheduled to be completed by the end of this year. (UNIAN: 7 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

That the primary focus of this meeting will revolve around bilateral economic relations between Germany and Ukraine, with Putin's war with Ukraine, and his illegal occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, relegated to "other important topics to be discussed", signifies that 'Putinversteher' Merkel is now trying to compensate Poroshenko for the economic losses that Ukraine will suffer when Nord Stream2 turns Germany into the gas hub for the EU. (Full video YouTube)

And whilst Merkel is trying to "buy off" Poroshenko over Nord Stream2, RFERL reports that,

"Russia has clashed with the United States and European powers at the United Nations over the legality of elections in areas of eastern Ukraine held by Moscow-backed separatists.

Before the meeting began, a joint statement from France, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium, and Germany was read outside the council chamber condemning what they called "the illegitimate 'elections' planned for November 11.

The U.S. deputy ambassador to the UN, Jonathan Cohen (left), later also claimed the "sham elections staged by Russia" violated the Minsk agreement, which states that elections must be held in accordance with Ukrainian law and be supervised by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe." (RFERL : October 31, 2018) (my emphasis)

This 'election ploy' of Putin cannot be divorced from the fact that,

"Moscow wants to have normal, business and mutually respecting relations with the United States and has offered its proposals on building dialogue many times, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the program "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin" on Rossiya 1 TV channel.", so said that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. (TASS : October 28, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, Putin is becoming very jittery about the possible outcome of the November 6 mid-term elections in the US.

Trump is now flailing in his attempt to prevent the Democratic Party from gaining control of the US House of Congress.

And well might he be because, if the Democratic Party gains control of the House of Congress, Trump's impeachment becomes imminent.

And with a Democrat Party controlled House of Congress, the desire of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' "to have normal, business and mutually respecting relations with the United States" will evaporate into thin air.

The outcome of the 2018 US mid-term elections will prove to be a decisive day for both Trump and Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin is worried about the outcome of the 2018 November elections in the US.

In February of 2015 Angela Merkel, then striding the international stage as the powerful leader of the EU, stated in Budapest that,

"Hungary, like other countries, including Germany, has a qualitatively dependence on Russian energy supplies. In this respect we want accountability ... fairness, in trade too obviously .... and reliability. We will concentrate our efforts on this together. But at the same time, in European politics, we must make sure that we diversify our energy resources ..." (UT : 3 February, 2015) (my emphasis)

That was in 2015.

Today Angela Merkel has dramatically changed her tune, thanks to the tight symbiotic business relationship between German industry and Putin in the building, and near completion, of Nord Stream 2.

As recently stated (October 8, 2018) by a German government spokeswoman,

“We get gas from various countries - from Russia, but also from Britain, Norway and the Netherlands, and Germany’s gas needs will grow in coming years, so Nord Stream 2 is a commercial project that the government regards as sensible,” she told a regular news conference." (Reuters : October 8, 2018) (my emphasis)

As now reported by UNIAN,

"All works on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in German territorial waters are scheduled to be completed by the end of this year." (UNIAN : 7 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

And in a talk given at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA),

"Dr Stefan Meister ... discusses German support of the Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline and argues that the last meeting of Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Vladimir Putin in Meseberg in August (2018) was characterised by a more pragmatic approach in German-Russian relations with less emphasis on Ukraine." (YouTube (full video): 12 Sep 2018) (my emphasis)

Indeed, notwithstanding the threat of yet more US sanctions against EU companies, especially German companies, directly involved in the construction of Nord Sea 2, Nora Kamprath Buli (left) now reports that,

"Russia has signalled it would solely finance the EUR 9.5bn gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 should the US slap the project’s European partners with sanctions, German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported late on Friday." (Montel News : 24 Sept., 2018) (my emphasis)

And in a strange (predictable??) about-turn, UA112 reports that,

"The U.S. does not intend to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 as Trump said at the joint press-conference with Andrzej Duda, the President of Poland, Voice of America reports." (UA112 : 19 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

On the war front in Ukraine we learn that,

"Monitors of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine have spotted three surface-to-air missile systems in the Russian-occupied areas of Donbas." (UNIAN : 10 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

just as,

 

"The Mariupol detachment of the Ukrainian coast guards, along with the tactical aviation units of the Air Force, tank troops, artillery, mechanized companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and other defense and security agencies, repulsed the "armed assault" of the conditional enemy from the Sea of Azov, as part of the drills, the press service of the State Border Guard Service reports. 

....

Vessel commanders carried out maneuvers near the conditional enemy, while the crews worked out live shooting from weapons of various calibers." (UNIAN : 10 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

Furthermore, Pavel Felgenhauer (right) argues that,

 

"A Russian military expert has warned there is 'no doubt' Russia has moved nuclear missiles to the Crimean peninsula.
....
'For Moscow the Crimea is a Russian territory, so the agreements on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons do not worry her much,' Felgenhauer told Ukrainian newspaper Gordonua." (George Martin : Mail Online : 3 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis) 

And just recently a huge military convoy was spotted in Russian-occupied Crimea heading towards Simferopol.

 

Now that Trump is paying Putin back for getting him into the White house by not intending to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (ibid UA112), and that Putin has most probably placed Russian 'nukes' on occupied Crimean soil, nonetheless Putin is worried about the outcome of the November elections in the US.

 

If the Democrats gain control of the US House of Congress they will have Putin in their sights for having stolen the US presidency from Hillary Clinton.

 

And heaven forbid if they also gain control of the US Senate!

 

One can expect a concerted Democrat push against Trump to up-the-ante against Putin if he wishes to survive in the White House for the next six months.

 

Otherwise Trump will be replaced by the hawkish anti-Russian Mike Pence (left), the Vice President.

 

 And that is not what Putin is bargaining for!

 

(to be continued)

Three school children killed in Donbas by rebel-laid mine of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies

In my last blog entry (21 Sept. 2018) I wrote that,

"On 14 September, 2018, Angela Merkel said that,

"Before the Minsk [2] agreement has been implemented or progress has been made in that regard, we will not consider lifting sanctions on Russia."." (DW- Deutsche Welle : 14-9-2018) (my emphasis)

The only problem with this pronouncement of the 'Putinversteher' Merkel is that she still insists that the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 has to be implemented." (blog)

UNIAN now reports that,

"The Pentagon's draft budget for 2019, which provides for an increase in assistance for Ukraine's security needs to $250 million, has come into force. U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the bill on the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2019, previously approved by the U.S. Congress," the Embassy of Ukraine in the United States wrote on Facebook." (UNIAN : 29 September,2018) (my emphasis)

This increased US assistance for Ukraine only serves to further cast doubt on Putin even considering making progress on implementing some of the Minsk2 proposals.

This is evidenced by the fact that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces mounted 32 attacks on Ukraine's Joint Forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, in the past day, September 29; proscribed weapons were used in six instances. One Ukrainian soldier was wounded in action, the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) headquarters said in a morning update on Facebook on September 30." (UNIAN : 30 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Increasing US aid to Ukraine also undermines Merkel's attempt at dangling in front of Putin's eyes the carrot of the lifting of EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' cohorts.

It also further increases Putin's growing impatience with Trump.

As Dmitry Peskov, Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, stated on August 21,

"  ...... the Kremlin welcomed Trump's comments indicating readiness to cooperate with Moscow [at the Helsinki meeting], but that it would "welcome even more some kind of concrete actions." (RFE/RL : 21 August, 2018) (my emphasis)


Putin's impatience with Trump is further exemplified by the fact that, as reported by Henry Foy (right),

"Russia has warned the US against “playing with fire” by imposing new sanctions against Moscow, and vowed that the measures will not succeed in “dictating terms” to the country.

Washington on Thursday added 33 new Russians to a list of sanctioned individuals, alongside a branch of the Chinese military for buying Russian defence products" (Financial Times : 21 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

...................

The more than 10,000 victims of Putin's war with Ukraine in the Donbas has now sadly been added to by the untimely death of of 3 teenage schoolchildren in Horlivka, a city controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and his Ukrainian proxies.

As reported by Deutsche Welle (DW),

"Three boys were killed and a fourth was injured when they accidentally triggered a mine [laid in a derelict house by Putin's Russian soldiers and his Ukrainian proxies] in eastern Ukraine, separatist officials said. The children attended a school in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka." (DW : 30 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?

On 14 September, 2018, Angela Merkel said that,

"Before the Minsk [2] agreement has been implemented or progress has been made in that regard, we will not consider lifting sanctions on Russia."." (DW- Deutsche Welle : 14-9-2018) (my emphasis)

The only problem with this pronouncement of the 'Putinversteher' Merkel is that she still insists that the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 has to be implemented.

Possibly aware that this is an impossible task, she now adds the caveat, "or progress has been made in that regard", thus limiting the FULL implementation of the Minsk2 proposals.

In so doing, Merkel has given to Putin the green light that if he implements only one of the Minsk2 proposals, then the sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki', for illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea, and starting a war against Ukraine in the Donbas, will start to be lifted.

One need only refer to the following Minsk2 proposals to discover the 'lifting of sanctions' bonanza that Merkel is giving Putin. (cf: Wikipedia for full proposals)

• Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
• Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
• Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.

And almost in the same breath, Merkel insisted that,

" .... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, [..] made economic sense." (The Baltic Times : 15/9/2018), which was sweet music to the ears of Putin.

It is no wonder that Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's President, correctly stated that,

" ... [] the Russian authorities will seek ways in January to weaken sanctions imposed on them. "The ruble is weakening even amid growing prices of crude oil. The Russian authorities were forced to raise the retirement age. They had to increase VAT. This is the cost of aggression" (UNIAN : 20 Sept. 2018) (my emphasis)

But all is not going Putin's way.

As reported by Xinhua News,

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order to further implement a U.S. sanction act against Russia.
.....
"These sanction actions are "in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, cyber intrusions and attacks, interference in the 2016 elections, and other malign activities," [U.S. State Department spokesperson Heather] Nauert (left) said" (Xinhua News : 21 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

UNIAN further reports that,

"The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise, which aims to promote regional security and improve that country's cooperation with NATO members, the military said Tuesday.

The U.S. plans to send about 450 personnel from bases in the States and in Europe, a U.S. Air Forces in Europe spokesman said Tuesday." (UNIAN : 18 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

And as Dominic Nicholls also reports,

"Britain will increase military support to its ally by sending Royal Marines later this year and increase the presence of Royal Navy patrols in the Black Sea in 2019.  Odessa, Ukraine’s biggest port, located in the west of the country, is expected to come under pressure from the Russian Navy over the coming months as they try to effect an economic blockade." (The Telegraph : 20 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my last blog entry (15/9/2018) I stated that

"This interest-rate rise, coming on top of the demonstrations in Russia against Putin's recent 'pension reforms', and the turning of Manafort into Mueller's witness, once again raises the issue of Putin's recklessness in response."

Now, compounding Putin's 'recklessness of response, we have :-

• further implementation of US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki'
• The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise and,
• Britain to increase military and naval support to Ukraine.

The dangling of the measured lifting of EU sanctions in front of Putin's eyes by Angela Merkel, if there is "some progress" in implementing Minsk2, will not lessen Putin's recklessness of response, especially in light of the above developments.

We now have to ask ourselves :

"Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?"

(to be continued)

Like Trump, Putin is now staring into the abyss of the unknown.

The 'Scarlet Thread of Maidan', that has woven itself from the revolution of Maidan (2014) into the 2016 US presidential elections, has yesterday (14 Sept. 2018) burst onto the stage of the Robert Mueller investigation into the collusion between Putin, his 'siloviki', and Donald Trump, that ultimately led to Trump obtaining the keys to the White House.

The 'Scarlet Thread of Maidan' has always been hovering in the background of the Mueller investigation until yesterday, when the Putin-Manafort-Trump cabal fell apart as Manafort pleaded guilty to Mueller's upcoming charges against him. Manafort will now be 'spilling all the beans' about the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential election, when he was in charge of running the Trump election-machine.


For Putin, his 'siloviki', and Trump, this 'turning' of Manafort towards helping the Mueller investigation spells nothing short of disaster.

Manafort pleading 'guilty' before the court Judge yesterday offers insight into what he was pleading guilty to, and how it will further propel Trump towards the gallows of 'impeachment'.

Now recall that in my blog entry of  30 March, 2018, I wrote that,

"Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military."

It is now emerging, as reported by Mark Hosenball (left), that,

"Investigators probing whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with Russia have been questioning witnesses about events at the 2016 Republican National Convention, according to two sources familiar with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiries." (Reuters : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis)"

At the Republican Convention, the phrase "lethal defensive weapons" was deleted from the original Denman resolution.

"But the final platform language deleted the reference to “lethal defensive weapons,” a change that made the platform less hostile to Russia, whose troops had invaded the Crimean peninsula and eastern Ukraine." (ibid Mark Hosenball)

Will Manafort now finally reveal that it was Trump, himself, who sanctioned these changes to Denman's resolution that supported Ukraine?

And on the heels of Manafort turning into a Mueller witness, we now also hear, as reported by Max Seddon, that the,
   
"Russia’s central bank has raised its main interest rate for the first time in almost four years, following Turkey in taking steps to defend its currency amid emerging market turmoil.The bank raised raised its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.50 per cent.
 ...
Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina (left) said she felt moved to act after inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August — higher than the central bank’s predictions. The central bank expects inflation to reach 5.5 per cent next year before beginning to revert to the baseline target of 4 per cent by 2020, she said" (Financial Times : 14 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

This interest-rate rise, coming on top of the demonstrations in Russia against Putin's recent 'pension reforms', and the turning of Manafort into Mueller's witness, once again raises the issue of Putin's recklessness in response.

Like Trump, Putin is now staring into the abyss of the unknown.

(to be continued)

Has Putin decided to 'throw caution to the wind'?

In my last blog entry (2/9/2018) I wrote that,

"More significantly, as reported by UNIAN,

"Washington is ready to expand arms supplies to Ukraine in order to build up the country’s naval and air defense forces in the face of continuing Russian support for militants in Donbas, according to the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker. (left)" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis) 

Trump cannot come to Putin's rescue either on the implementation of possible new US sanctions against himself and his cronies, nor on the impending expansion of arms to Ukraine since Trump, himself, is fast beginning to loose favor with the American public."

Putin is now attempting a full blockade in the Sea of Azov to Ukrainian ships.

 

As Stephen Blank (right) reports, 

 

" ..... [ ] in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, Moscow is waging a simultaneous military and economic war against Kyiv. It has blockaded the Sea of Azov to Ukrainian ships, demands the right to inspect “foreign” vessels, and has extended a maritime exclusion zone all the way to Odesa, Ukraine." (Atlantic Council : September 7, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

Putin's attempt to blockade the Sea of Azov has, however, been met by Ukraine, which has,

 

" ... started deploying modern armoured artillery boats at the Azov region to counter Russian aggression in the south of Ukraine, the organization of coastal defense and protection of the Azov Sea coast... [I]t is expected that three small armoured artillery boats will be deployed to the Azov Sea, which today will be the most powerful units in this region." (Maritime Security News : 10 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, as reported by Mark Hodge,

"Russia [is sending] ‘up to 1,000 tanks towards country’s border with Ukraine’ as tensions with the West continue to escalate

This comes amid rising tensions in Ukraine following the killing of pro-Russian separatist leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko who died in a bomb attack at a café in Kiev." ( The Sun : 5 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

This movement of Putin's tanks towards the Ukrainian border coincides with the fact that yesterday,

"Russian-led forces mounted 25 attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas in the past 24 hours." (UNIAN : 10 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin, it would seem, has decided to 'throw caution to the wind'.

One could argue that in part, this recklessness of Putin has been precipitated by his need to deflect the gaze of the Russian people away from what is fast becoming his 'ill-fated pension reform', as well as the recent acceleration of Trump towards the gallows of 'impeachment'

As Andrei Kolesnikov (right) writes,

"Putin’s recent fall in approval ratings has been steep. The main reason for the slump in ratings is the government’s proposal to increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women.
...
Putin’s successful foreign policy agenda is starting to lose its power to command public support in the face of growing domestic frustrations.
...
Still, if Putin’s low approval ratings persist, the Kremlin will likely try to create some sort of spectacle to distract attention from Russia’s many social problems. It may want to double down on dramatic foreign policy gestures, but, as mentioned above, these have lost their potency." (Carnegie Moscow Center : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

 And it is this 'doubling down on dramatic foreign policy issues' that is making Putin dangerously 'throw caution to the wind'.

It is no wonder that Petro Poroshenko (left), Ukraine's President, recently pronounced that,

"He said the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a strong army is the guarantee of peace.

"The stronger our army, the sooner peace will come. The stronger the international solidarity around Ukraine, the sooner peace will come.

The tougher sanctions against the aggressor country, the sooner peace will come," Poroshenko said." (UNIAN : 8 September,2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin is now trapped between demonstrating Russians, possible new US sanctions, and US arms flowing into Ukraine.

You can fool some of the people all of the time,

All of the people some of the time,

But you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time.

(Abraham Lincoln)

So it is that Vladimir Putin, the 'teflon' czar of Russia, has backed down from his 'pension reform', a reform that attempted to raise the retirement age of Russians already struggling under the yoke of a failing economy, in the face of a growing chorus of Russians demonstrating against this reform.

Adding to Putin's current woes is the fact that, as reported by RFERL,

"President Vladimir Putin and Russia's Security Council have described possible new U.S. sanctions against Moscow as "absolutely illegal," Russian news agencies quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying." (RERL : August 10, 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, it should come as no surprise that Dmitry Medvedev is now echoing Putin's anger at the demonstrating Russians by stating that, 

"... Moscow would consider it a "declaration of economic war" and would retaliate "economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means" if the United States imposes bans on Russian banks or their use of a particular currency." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Further raising the anger of Putin is, as reported by Ray Sanchez and Nathan Hodge,

"The leader of Russian-backed separatists [Alexander Zakharchenko (right)] in Ukraine's Donetsk region was killed in an explosion at a cafe Friday, Russian state news agencies and separatist officials said." (CNN : August 31, 2018)

This anger of Putin is perhaps best expressed by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (below left), who, in the immediate aftermath of  Zakharchenko's death, stated that,

"... further talks in the Normandy Four format were "impossible" after the murder of the leader of the "DPR" terrorist organization, Alexander Zakharchenko" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis)

Yet, only two weeks ago,

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (right) told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper Germany hoped to "create new momentum" in the Minsk peace process" (CNBC : Sun, 19 Aug 2018) (my emphasis)

Where, now, does this recent pronouncement of Lavrov leave Merkel and Maas?

More significantly, as reported by UNIAN,

"Washington is ready to expand arms supplies to Ukraine in order to build up the country’s naval and air defense forces in the face of continuing Russian support for militants in Donbas, according to the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker. (left)" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis) 

Trump cannot come to Putin's rescue either on the implementation of possible new US sanctions against himself and his cronies, nor on the impending expansion of arms to Ukraine since Trump, himself, is fast beginning to loose favor with the American public.

 As reported by MSNBC (31 Aug. 2018),

"... Disapproval of President Trump's job performance has reached a new high. ... Just 36% of Americans approve of the President's job performance, with 60% disapproving ..."

In two months time the mid-term US elections will be held. The Democratic Party may, after these elections, control the House of Congress.

Trump is already considering the possibility of the start of impeachment proceedings against him if the Democrats win control of the US Congress this coming November. (cf. Steve Benen : MSNBC : 23 August, 2018)

Did Medvedev therefor have the US mid-term elections in mind when he stated that,

"... Moscow would consider it a "declaration of economic war" and would retaliate "economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means" if the United States imposes bans on Russian banks or their use of a particular currency." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Putin is now trapped between the rock of demonstrating Russians and the hard place of possible new US sanctions, and US arms flowing into Ukraine.

Will he now redouble his efforts to ensure that the Republicans win in the November mid-term elections, as he did for Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections?

(to be continued)