Zelensky is treading a dangerous path

As many American citizens heave a great sigh of relief that the nightmare of Trump's presidency is finally over Putin, on the other hand, is ensuring that when he finally steps down he will be totally immune from any form of prosecution for any of the criminal deeds that he perpetrated during his presidency. 

 As reported by Mary Ilyushina (left),

"Russian lawmakers submitted a draft bill that could grant former presidents lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution beyond their terms of office, state-run news agency TASS reported Thursday.
Such a bill would give current President Vladimir Putin protection from prosecution if and when he decides to leave office." (CNN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

She further reports that,

"The latest legislation comes a week after Putin submitted another bill under his constitutional reforms giving ex-presidents a lifetime seat in the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council." (ibid Mary Ilyushina) (my emphasis)

The rush in Putin's Russia to have this legislation approved may, just may, have something to do with the reporting that,

"Moscow sources close to Mr Putin have claimed the 68-year-old leader has begun developing symptoms of Parkinson’s, which affects the brain and can cause shaking and stiffness. Observers noted that Mr Putin is beginning to show signs of weakness in his hands, struggling to hold pens, as well as constantly twitching his leg. " (Dylan Donnelly (right): Express : 7 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Could it be that Biden's success in beating Trump, and the possibility that Putin has Parkinson's disease, may have been factored into Zelensky's announcement that,

"A video conference will be held next week of the advisors to the leaders of the Normandy Four states – Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday."? (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,that elections could be held in the Spring of 2021 in the Donbas?

As reported by UNIAN,

"In Zelensky's opinion, if the Action Plan for Donbas De-occupation is implemented step-by-step, elections can be held in Donbas as early as the next spring." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

As UNIAN points out, the main points of Zelensky's Plan for Donbas De-occupation includes :-

• Withdrawal of foreign troops, illegal armed groups, and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine in early 2021;
• Cancellation by Russian authorities of a number of decisions and acts that directly meddle in the affairs of the certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for example, on a simplified procedure for granting Russian citizenship to local residents;
• Restoring control over the corresponding section of the Russian-Ukrainian state border with the help of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission;
• A four-fold increase in the number of OSCE SMM representatives (by 1,500); and
  

    Only if the first four conditions are met –elections in the territories that are now temporarily occupied by Russian-controlled forces shall be prepared and conducted. (UNIAN : 5 November 2020)

The main points of Zelensky's "Action Plan" differ significantly from the First Four points in the  Minsk II proposals which state that :-l

• Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfillment 
• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems: for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact; for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
• The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

When compared to the MinskII proposals, it is interesting to note that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is much less specific.

Indeed, Zelensky's "Action Plan" is nothing short of the relegation of the Minsk II proposals to the dustbin of history. 

Furthermore, it allows for Putin to drive a legal juggernaut of interpretation through phrases such as "directly meddle".

Even more disconcerting, as Maria Kucherenko (left) points out,

"When comparing the plan presented by Russia on behalf of the militants and the plan presented by the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG and his deputy, we will see that these two projects are irreconcilable.  

But there is one serious reservation here: earlier, Russian proxies publicly indicated that the occupied areas of Donbas were preparing for local elections, which could be conducted in March. And it is important to make sure that this single coincidence and the will to comply with the deadline set by the Ukrainian delegation doesn't win over common sense or make us turn a blind eye to security issues." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it a coincidence that Putin's proxies in the Donbas are preparing for elections during the same time that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is also proposing that elections in the Donbas be held?

Once again we have to ask ourselves,

 "Exactly whose side is Zelensky on?" 

(to be continued)

Can Zelensky redeem himself in the eyes of the Ukrainian people?

Today is the day before the critical US Presidential elections. That Putin is desperately trying to ensure a Trump victory is evidenced by the disturbing fact that,

 "Russian hackers are targeting hundreds of US hospitals and healthcare providers just as the coronavirus is making a comeback and the US presidential election is in its final stretch, officials from three government agencies and the private sector are warning.

The hackers typically use the TrickBot network of infected computers to penetrate the organizations and after further burrowing into their networks deploy Ryuk, a particularly aggressive piece of ransomware, a joint advisory published by the FBI, Health and Human Services, and the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security agency said." (Dan Goodin  (left): Ars Technica: 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

 The question that needs to be asked is,

"Is it beyond the near absolute power of Putin to unleash his FSB and other agencies to stop this heinous crime being perpetrated by Russian hackers against US hospitals?

At nearly the same time as Putin's hackers were targeting US hospitals, RFERL reports that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

DW (29 October 2020)

 

The Chairman of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), has retorted that Zelensky's dissolving of the CC,

".... has signs of a "constitutional coup," says CCU chair Oleksandr Tupytsky." (UNIAN : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This is the same Oleksandr Tupytsky who,

"Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) Oleksandr Tupytsky did not include in his assets declaration a land plot in the village of Koreiz in Russia-occupied Crimea, which he bought under Russian law in 2018." (UNIAN : 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is, however, caught in an EU legal vice.

According to the Council of Europe's European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission),

"Terminating the mandate of the judges [of the Ukrainian Constitutional Court] is in blatant breach of the Constitution and of the fundamental principle of separation of powers. Violating the Constitution, even if for an arguably good cause, cannot lead to a culture of constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law, which the fight against corruption pursues," the officials wrote." (UNIAN: 31 October 2020) (my emphasis) 

Luckily for Zelensky, the Venice Commission has also to admit that,

"There can be no effective fight against corruption without an independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law. Equally, there can be no independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law when corruption is pervasive," (ibid UNIAN 31 Oct 2020) (my emphasis)

The land deal in Putin-occupied Crimea of the Chair of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Oleksandr Tupytsky, can be seen as nothing more nor less than an example of "corruption that is pervasive" within the Constitutional Court of Ukraine itself. 

The passing of this Bill to terminate the powers of the Constitutional Court will demand of Zelensky to replace it with new members very quickly.

The EU will be carefully watching who Zelensky will appoint to a new Constitutional Court.

And so will Putin.

And, who knows, so could a new US President Biden as Americans head for the polling booths tomorrow to elect the next US President.

Zelensky could redeem himself in the eyes of the people of Ukraine if his Constitutional Court appointees hold aloft the spirit of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Will he be able to? 

(to be continued)

On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?

Having completed his State Visit to Britain, Zelensky is euphoric over the signing of "a comprehensive preferential free-trade agreement as well as a commitment to recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty" (Andrew McDonald: Politico: 7 Oct. 2020). 

 

This agreement includes, among others :-

•  a new sanctions regime which will come into force from the end of the year. (ibid Andrew McDonald)
•  a plan for cooperation and information exchange to counter the hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation (UNIAN:7 Ocober 2020) (my emphasis)
•  enhancing cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the military and military-technical spheres. (UNIAN : 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)
•  an Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (UNIAN: 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Stephen Sackur of BBC's 'Hardtalk', Zelensky had difficulty in disguising how he has left all other Ukrainian oligarchs somewhat untouched whilst going after former Ukraine president, Petro Poroshenko, with a touch of venom. 

He further found strange excuses for appointing former top Yanukovich officials to critical positions in his government.  (BBC 'Hard Talk': 12 October 2020: IPlayer)

 Most significant of all, Zelensky was rather uncomfortable when asked by Stephen Sackur,

"Are you hoping that Donald Trump, who has been very negative in many ways about Ukraine ... Are you hoping that he loses and Joe Biden wins?",

Zelensky gave a tortuous 'diplomatic' answer. 

And so he should.

The chances of Biden becoming the next President of the US is, at the moment, quite high, notwithstanding the uncertainties of American politics.

A Biden win will, once more, take a rather keen look at what is happening in Ukraine. Merkel and Macron are also aware of this fact. 

In particular Merkel, whose political life is fast fading, realizes that Nord Stream2, that pet project of Putin and herself, may be in even greater jeopardy following a Biden win in the upcoming US presidential election.

And following the attempted assasination of Navalny by Putin, and Navalny's  recovery in a German hospital, many Germans themselves are clamoring for Nord Stream2 to be halted.

Even the German politician, Ursula von den Leyen (left), now EU President, cannot swing all the members of the EU behind the completion of Nord Stream2. 

 And then we have the 'strange' remarks of Zelensky during his Stephen Sackur interview that,

"We understand that today we only have the Normandy Format at our disposal. 

And we are following the direction of the Minsk peace process. So we understand that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are subjects to the Minsk process.......

We are following the Minsk process. Well, I should say that we need Minsk to be a little bit more flexible ...."

 

Zelensky may think that there should be flexibility in interpreting the Minsk2 protocols.

However, as reported by UNIAN,

"EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (left) in a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements.

"High Representative/Vice-President Borrell also informed Minister Lavrov of the agreement among EU Foreign Ministers to continue the current approach to EU-Russia relations, whereby the full implementation of the Minsk agreements remains key. He called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements," according to a press release following the phone talk." (UNIAN : 13 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This does not quite square with the 'flexibility' approach of Zelensky.

Which raises the critical question viz.

"On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

It is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on... Putin's or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Roman Olearchyk (left) reports that,

"Ukraine’s drive to tackle corruption, a key demand of the IMF, has been thrown into doubt after a top court ruled that the country’s main anti-graft body was set up in breach of the constitution.
....

The court gave legislators three months to change a handful of clauses in a 2014 law that established NABU. However, members of Ukraine’s oligarch-influenced parliament have strongly criticised the
body and its probes into political corruption. Anti-graft campaigners fear MPs may try to amend the legislation to take control of appointments and rein in the watchdog.
 

“There is an ongoing targeted destruction of the system of independent anti-corruption institutions in Ukraine,” Mr Poroshenko said on Thursday." (Financial Times : 17 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Vlagyiszlav Makszimov (left) also informs us that,

 "NABU has said the cases against it are politically motivated.

The bureau has recently made public a series of allegations against a ring of judges who “planned to seize state power”, with Pavlo Vovk, (right) the head of the Kyiv administrative court, at its centre.

NABU has released tape recordings that it says contain the voice of Vovk and fellow judges conspiring to influence other courts and government bodies through corrupt rulings. Vovk has denied the allegations." (Euractiv : 18 September 2020) (my emphasis)

This new case has been brought before the court by a group 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life. 

These developments in Ukraine have not gone unnoticed.

 Schengenvisainfo informs us that,

"Ukraine risks losing its visa-free regime with Schengen Area countries and 1.5 billion financial support from the EU, after its government’s decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
......
Von Cramon-Taubadel urged Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption agencies, so the country does not lose its visa-free regime with the EU." (Schengenvisainfo : 21 September 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky, however,

"...  said that the possible abolition of the visa-free regime are rumours, while he stressed that the commission would choose a professional SAPO leader." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

Whether rumours or not, Zelensky should take note of the fact that,

“The European Union and the United States take note of the Ukrainian parliament’s decision to appoint members to the commission to choose the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor. The commission needs to embark on a transparent process with candidates’ integrity and merits at its core. Our further support will depend upon it,” the statement of the US’ Embassy reads." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

And whilst Zelensky (with the support of 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life) upholds the decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), adding to his woes is the emerging news that Putin is behind the attempt by some Ukrainian politicians to gather dirt on Biden, Trump's nemesis candidate in the upcoming US presidential elections.
 
As reported by Dominick Mastrangelo,

"American intelligence agencies believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind a disinformation campaign targeting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to a new report.

A top-secret CIA assessment concluded Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach (left) engaged in peddling "disparaging information about Biden inside the United States through lobbyists, Congress, the media and contacts with figures close to the president," two sources with knowledge of the report told The Washington Post." (The Hill :22 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet just a few days ago, as reported by Emily Shugerman (right),

"Faced with a U.S. Treasury Department report linking him to a Russian agent, Rudy Giuliani [Trump's current lawyer and fixer] defended himself Saturday by claiming he had no idea that Ukrainian lawmaker and conspiracy-peddler Andriy Derkach was a foreign operative." (The Daily Beast : 12 September 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC (1) (2) (3) 22-23 September 2020

Try as he might, Zelensky simply cannot disentangle himself from the scarlet thread of the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Diginity that has tightly bound together Trump and Putin since the 2016 US presidential election up to the present day, and which now binds him together with Trump and Putin.

And with the US Presidential election soon to be upon us (8 weeks'), it is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on ... Putin or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

(to be continued)

The next Normandy Four meeting will be very interesting

 Tetiana Shevchuk reports that,

"On August 28, Ukraine’s Constitutional Court declared the 2015 appointment of Artem Sytnyk as director of the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) unconstitutional. The ruling, which was immediately dismissed as “politically motivated” by NABU officials, places the anti-corruption agency in legal limbo." (Atlantic Council : 1 Sepetember 2020) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant,

"President Zelenskyy is currently believed to be under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (my emphasis)

As she also points out,

"Recent examples of landmark reformist legislation that is now potentially at risk include the spring 2020 law on the sale of agricultural land and the so-called “Anti-Kolomoiskiy” Banking Law that was passed to prevent the oligarch from regaining ownership of his nationalized bank PrivatBank.

These two pieces of legislation were requirements in order to secure a new IMF program for Ukraine." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (left: Kolomoiskiy) (my emphasis)

And in a recent and rare TV interview with Sasha Vakulina since becoming President of Ukraine, Zelensky categorically stated that,

• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me"                                
   
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July). (Euronews : 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Euronews 25 August 2020

Zelensky's optimism about ending the war between Ukraine and Russia may have something to do with the fact that Vitold Fokin (left), the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, stated that,

"Another important question is about pardon. On both sides, many crimes have been committed that should ultimately be investigated, and let the perpetrators be prosecuted. But today, in order to end the war and save the lives of soldiers and commanders, my position is to declare general pardon, hold elections, resolve the issue of the special status of certain regions, and best of all, the entire Donbas," UNIAN : 30 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Is this 'pardon strategy' going to be adopted by Zelenskiy?

And does this have anything to do with the recent call between Zelenskiy and EU President Ursula van den Leyen on the 28 August 2020?

During this call,

" ....[Zelenskiy and von den Leyen] exchanged views on the main issues of the Ukraine-EU agenda and further steps needed to strengthen the strategic partnership and deepen economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union." Ukrinform : 2 September 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Unian also reports,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky says Kyiv is making every effort to end the war in Donbas, expecting that the leaders of the Normandy Four countries (Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia) will gather for a summit after their advisors meet. The comment came during Zelensky's talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, (right) the president tweeted. "We very much want to maintain a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and do everything to end the war," the president stressed." (Unian : 28 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In his, ".. do everything to end the war [in the Donbas]", does Zelenskiy INCLUDE the 'pardon strategy' of Vitold Fokin?

As he stated in his recent interview with Sasha Vakulina,

"With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (ibid ) (my emphasis)

We know that Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020?

Zelenskiy seems to be politically jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof.

On the one hand he has set his sights on ending Putin's war with Ukraine within a year.

On the other hand, his internal political decisions i.e.

• being under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so

• grappling with the 'pardon strategy' as outlined by Vitold Fokin , the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group,

• having 'necessary' telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin,

leaves him open to accusations of betraying the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

And looming over the political horizon is the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (24/8/2020),

"If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.


If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament."

The next Normandy Four meeting should be very interesting.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

The news that Alexei Navalny, now undergoing treatment in a Berlin hospital, has been poisoned by a Novichok agent, an agent that only the government in Putin's Russia controls, has now put pressure on Merkel to punish Putin by halting the completion of  the Nord Stream2 pipeline.

What is highly disconcerting for Putin is that these calls to halt the completion of this political pipeline is coming from Merkel's own supporters.

As Madeline Chambers reports,

"Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will take gas from Russia to Germany, after she said Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with a Soviet-style nerve agent. 

Western countries have condemned the attack and many German politicians want a tough response.

“We must pursue hard politics, we must respond with the only language (Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands - that is gas sales,” Norbert Roettgen, the conservative head of Germany’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said on Thursday.

Late on Wednesday he had said completion of Nord Stream 2 “would be the maximum confirmation and encouragement for Putin to continue this kind of politics”. (Reuters :3 September 2020) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see how this political development will affect the upcoming Normandy Four meeting.

How will Zelensky negotiate the political rapids that he is heading towards?

Independence Day, instituted in 1991 and celebrated on the 24 August each year, is the main state holiday in Ukraine.

Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.

On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.

And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,

"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years.  This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.

 DW News: Youtube : 23 August 2020

Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.

As reported by Kareem Salem,

"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?

As reported by the South China Morning Post,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?

Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.

"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,

"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.

Vox: Youtube 2 September 2014

If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.

If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.

If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.

For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.

Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!

As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that,

“We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.

How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

In a recent interview with EuroNews, Zelensky revealed that,

• With just a few months to go, I asked him what the current situation was - and what progress has been achieved in this one year deadline?
  
  He insisted it was moving forward:
  
  "It is moving, but not as fast as I expected. But now there's a ceasefire. There will be a Normandy format meeting.
• "When it comes to Crimea, the situation is even more complicated, I think.
  
  "I will tell you honestly, I have thought a lot about it. In the Normandy format, no one wants to talk about Crimea, especially Russia. I raised this issue. But we have dedicated all the time to Donbass.
  
  "Russia does not want to talk about it and I am not afraid of saying that, we all understand it.
   
• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me….
  
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July).
  
  "We discussed the complicated issues in respecting the ceasefire.
  
  "So far, there is a result of this dialogue and we see it. It is not enough. I am not afraid of the direct dialogue with Russia’s president. I think that is the right thing to do.
  
  "If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this.
   
• I asked him if the situation in the east had priority over Crimea:
  
  "Both issues are a priority. The only thing about the situation in the east, people are dying there. So with this particular human factor, for me personally this is in first place.
  
  "But they are at the same level, because both territories are ours, they have to come back."
  
  I asked him when they would come back:
  
  "You know how they sometimes say in movies, 'You'll be the first one to find out!'”
  
• "With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (EuroNews: 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)
  
  

 I leave the reader to decide whether those tête-à-tête's that Zelensky is privately having with Putin, and that gives him such confidence that he can end Putin's war with Ukraine within the next 12 months, signifies a quid-pro-quo between himself and Putin.

No wonder he remarks in his interview,

"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."

(to be continued)

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

On July 26, RFE/RL reported that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine hours before a fresh cease-fire was due to enter into force.

Both expressed support for the truce between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists that is set to begin at midnight on July 27." "RFE/RL : 26 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Hardly had they put down their phones when,

"Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander, General Volodymyr Kravchenko (right) has said Russian-led forces have already violated the newly-agreed truce in Donbas. "The situation along the contact line is stable and under control. Unfortunately, at 00:20-00:45 Kyiv time, the enemy shelled a unit of the 36th separate marine infantry brigade, using riles, hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, and heavy machine guns." (UNIAN : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis) (cf. also: RFE/RL  27 July 2020: "Ukraine Accuses Separatists Of Breaching New Truce "; Zoe Didili : New Europe : 29 July 2020)

This rather shatters the illusion that Putin will honestly abide by ANY ceasefire agreed between himself and Zelensky since,

" ...  While Putin continues to deny any direct Russian role in the conflict, over the past year he has repeatedly questioned Ukraine’s historical right to the Donbas and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” who have been unjustly and artificially separated by outside forces.

These dubious claims appear tailor-made to belittle Ukrainian statehood while serving to justify further Russian interference. The one thing they most certainly do not imply is an inclination towards peaceful coexistence. (Mark Temnycky (left): Atlantic Council : 3 August 2020) (my emphasis)


Mark Temnycky further reports that,

"Russian officials have recently stated that they hope to distribute up to one million passports in eastern Ukraine by the end of 2020. This will transform the occupied zone into a “passport protectorate” and create the pretext for endless future Russian interventions." (ibid Temnycky) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the fact that,

•  Zelenskyy was propelled to power in spring 2019 on a populist wave that owed much to his outsider credentials and campaign trail promises to end the culture of corruption which most Ukrainians blame for the country’s woes. 
• Since winning the presidency, he has struggled to live up to this billing. Zelenskyy has repeatedly failed to act in defense of anti-corruption figures, and 
• has dismissed numerous reformers from senior government positions while appointing dubious figures with ties to discredited former administrations." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported only yesterday by UNIAN,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the appointment to a senior post in his Office of Oleg Tatarov, (left) a former official with the Ministry of Internal Affairs who was had been in service during the rule of Viktor Yanukovych" (UNIAN : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as  Stephanie Baker and Greg Farrell report,

"A U.S. company affiliated with the Ukrainian billionaire Igor Kolomoisky (left) that has been accused of participating in an international fraud scheme was raided by the FBI in two locations on Tuesday.

Kolomoisky is close to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In 2016, Ukraine’s previous government nationalized Privatbank and accused Kolomoisky and his co-founder of stealing billions of dollars. Kolomoisky denies the claim." (Bloomberg : 4 August 2020) (my emphasis)

VIDEO

  

It should also be noted that, as reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan (right),

"That oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky , has long been seen as allied with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Both men were important characters in the saga that led to President Donald Trump’s impeachment." (Politico : 6 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Both Kolomoisky and Zelensky now find themselves on the same side as Putin in wanting Trump to win the upcoming US Presidential election in November of this year.

As reported by Nicole Wallace,

"US Intelligence Officials confirming that Russia is actively working to denigrate Joe Biden ... " (MSNBC : 7 August 2020) (video below)

As also reported by Christoper Miller,

"Ukrainian Operatives are gearing up again to take on the Bidens. They say they have Giuliani and Republicans on their side.  (Rachel Maddow video below)
...
The Ukrainians have ties to Russia and their own checkered pasts. But some Republicans are taking them seriously, and two of the operatives plan to be in Washington soon to push their agenda" (Buzzfeed :24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow : MSNBC : 8 August 2020

Yet what is Zelensky doing about such blatant interference in a US election by a pro-Putin Ukrainian parliamentarian, Andriy Derkach (left)?

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

Why this deafening silence from Zelensky?

By ridding himself of  Ukraine's reformers that grew out of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity and replacing them with former Yanukovich apparatchniks, Zelensky is revealing his true colours.

The mask that he wore when presenting himself as a saviour to the people of Ukraine has finally slipped from his face.

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

STOP PRESS!! 9 August 2020

It is ironic that yesterday (8 August 2020) Zelensky suddenly announces that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that it was a matter of Ukraine's national security to stay out of U.S. internal politics, particularly its election.

"Never, under any circumstances, it's acceptable to meddle in another country's sovereign elections," Zelenskiy wrote.

Zelenskiy appealed to Ukrainian politicians to avoid any actions that could be linked to U.S. elections, nor allow themselves to try to solve any of their personal, political or business problems that way.

"Ukraine's reputation is worth much more than the reputation of any of our politicians," the president said." (Natalia Zinets : MSN : 8 August 2020) (my emphasis)

What has suddenly prompted Zelensky to make this announcement???

Why was this announcement NOT made when it has been PUBLIC knowledge for MONTHS that
Andriy Derkach and his Ukrainian cohorts (below)  have been working hand-in-hand with Rudy Giuliani and US Senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley (right) to spread dis-information about Joe Biden? (Rachel Maddow)

Is Zelensky beginning to run scared?

(to be continued)