Is Putin's 'siloviki' beginning to abandon him?

Putin  is beginning to buckle under the weight of the IAEA (The UN International Atomic Energy Agency) and the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army in eastern Donbas.

Having tried to 'fully' weaponise the Zaphorizia Nuclear plant for months, Putin has finally had to succumb to  the fact that the eyes of the world stared him down, and we now learn from Marcus Parekh and Josh White (left) that,
...
"United Nations inspectors in Ukraine were due on Thursday to visit a Russian-occupied nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, where nearby shelling has prompted bitter recriminations and global fears of disaster.
...
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission arrived in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia , 55 km (34 miles) away from the plant, on Wednesday and Ukraine's defence ministry said it was scheduled to visit the facility on Thursday.
....
Although Russian officials suggested the team would have only one day to inspect the site, the IAEA was preparing for longer." (The Telegraph : 1 September 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by Olga Voitovych, Jo Shelley, Tara John, Olga Konovalova, Rebecca Wright,

"As Ukraine ramps up its offensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in the country's south, its forces have regained four villages and broken through Russian defenses at multiple points of the frontline in the Kherson region, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky also issued a warning to Russian forces during his evening address Monday, saying it was time for them to "run away, go home," and that "the occupiers must know we will chase them to the border." (CNN : 30 August 2022) (my emphasis)

DW News : YouTube : 29 August 2022

On the "gas front", Matt Murphy (left) reports that,

• Russia has completely halted gas supplies to Europe via a major pipeline, saying repairs are needed. 
• European leaders fear Russia could extend the outage in an attempt to drive up gas prices, which have already risen sharply in the past year.
• However, today's announcement was not expected to impact prices immediately. The UK's main natural gas price was in fact down by more than 15% on markets, as of 14:00 BST on Wednesday. 
• On Tuesday, French Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher accused Russia of "using gas as a weapon of war".
• 
  Earlier this week, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right) promised to intervene in energy markets, telling a conference in Slovenia that they are "no longer fit for purpose".
• "We need a new market model for electricity that really functions and brings us back into balance," she said. (BBC News : 1 September 2022) (my emphasis) 
  

WION : 31 August 2022 : YouTube

Putin is now desperately clutching at straws, as evidenced by the fact that not only is he now trying to replenish his war hardware with UAV's from Iran, but he is also beginning to lean heavily towards Kim Jon UN, the North Korean dictator, to supply him Korean troops to replace his dwindling Russian troops, especially in the eastern Donbas.

As reported by Puerto Rico Digital News,

"Russian cargo planes have quietly picked up the first of scores of Iranian-made combat drones for use against Ukraine, U.S. officials said, in a move that underscores deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran while also highlighting Russia’s struggles to supply its overstretched military.
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Transport planes departed Iran on Aug. 19 hauling at least two types of unmanned aerial vehicles, both capable of carrying munitions for attacks on radars, artillery and other military targets, according to intelligence gathered by U.S. and other spy agencies." (Puerto Digital News : 30 August 2022) (my emphasis) 

And as reported by Charlie Smith (left),

"Vladimir Putin is retreating to the Donbas as Russian losses in Ukraine take their toll, according to a military insider who warned they have "no manpower to continue".
...
The latest fighting comes as the Russian death toll in the six-month war has climbed to around 48,000 personnel, according to Ukraine.
...
Western officials have estimated the number of Russians killed at between 70,000 and 80,000, while the Kremlin has not updated its last count of 1,351 from March." (Express : 1 September 2022) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin is now clutching at "political" straws in the face of adversity, the silence from his 'siloviki' is positively deafening!

As reported by Millie Cook,

"War expert Harry Kazianis warned the West's economic sanctions on Russia are "going to bite dramatically". He said Putin is facing an "existential situation", warning his "regime is in trouble" if he cannot win the war in the next 60 days. Mr Kazianis, a war strategy expert, explained that Europe's plan to shift its reliance away from Russian oil and gas will have a serious impact on the Russian economy, which is "already in an economic depression". (Express : 1 September 2022) (my emphasis)

Is Putin's 'siloviki' now beginning to slowly abandon him as the Russian economy accelerates faster into depression, and the body-bags of Russian soldiers mount up even faster?

(to be continued)

Putin now has his back to the wall.

It should come as no surprise that, as reported by Aljazeera,

"President Alexander Lukashenko says the Belarusian military’s SU-24 warplanes have been modified to carry nuclear weapons, and that Minsk would react immediately if the West caused it any problems.
...
Lukashenko – the authoritarian leader of ex-Soviet Belarus – said he had agreed on the move to modernise Belarusian warplanes with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Belta news agency reported on Friday." (Aljazeera : 26 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Aljazeera : 26 August 2022

This announcement by Lukashenko comes against the backdrop of,

"International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are preparing to inspect Ukraine’s nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia as early as next week, possibly as early as Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal, which spoke with people dealing with the organization.
...
The goal is to prevent a possible nuclear catastrophe due to the ongoing fighting in the area occupied by Russian forces." (Ike Walton (left): Wire Service Canada : 27 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Adding to which, Rebecca Perring (right) reports that,

"[Putin] has turned to volunteers, mercenaries and prisoners, as he desperately scrambles to turn the tide in his raging war in neighbouring Ukraine as the battle enters its seventh month.
...
The increase includes a 137,000 boost in the number of combat personnel to 1.15 million and will come into effect on January 1.
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Analysts said Putin was “mobilising by stealth” and warned he was preparing for the “long war”.
...
The move gives additional credence to Western estimates of heavy Russian losses during the war." (Express : 26 August 2022) (my emphasis)

And on the "gas" front, Matt McGrath (left) reports that,

"As Europe's energy costs skyrocket, Russia is burning off large amounts of natural gas, according to analysis shared with BBC News.
...
They say the plant, near the border with Finland, is

burning an estimated $10m (£8.4m) worth of gas every day.
...
Experts say the gas would previously have been exported to Germany.
...
Germany's ambassador to the UK told BBC News that Russia was burning the gas because "they couldn't sell it elsewhere". (BBC News : 26 August 2022) (my emphasis)

The German ambassador to the UK may be bemoaning the fact that Putin's gas destined for Germany is being needlessly being burnt off.

Meanwhile, however, his fellow Social Democrats in Germany are trying to politically resuscitate the Angela Merkel doctrine of appeasing Putin, for which she publicly stated that she has no regrets NOR will she apologise for.

France 24 : YouTube : 8 June 2022

Recall the ill-fated 2014 Minsk I and Minsk II protocols, which she mediated together with François Hollande, the then French president, to appease Putin over his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and, more importantly, his illegal occupation of the Donbas.

And now, in 2022, and as reported by Léonie Chao-Fong (left),

"A group of lawmakers from Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) are calling for peace negotiations with Russia and for a ceasefire to be reached in Ukraine as soon as possible.
...
In a letter entitled “The guns must be silent!” seen by Der Spiegel, the group representing the pacifist left-wing of the SPD urged for a diplomatic offensive to end the war in Ukraine quickly.
...
They called for a new attempt at a “modus vivendi”, in which conflicting parties agree to coexist in peace, arguing that such a relationship “must be found with the Russian government based on the acknowledgment of realities that one does not like, which rules out a further escalation of the war”. (The Guardian : 27 August 2022) (my emphasis)

What realities?????

It would seem that the German Putinversteher mentality is alive and well and still thriving amongst the German political class! 

Meanwhile, as reported by Julian Borger (right),

"Russia has blocked an agreement at the United Nations that was aimed at bolstering the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) because Moscow objected to a clause about control over the Zaporizhzhia power plant in Ukraine.
...
The closing session was put off for more than four hours over Russian refusal to agree to a lengthy statement of support for the NPT which included a reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is occupied by Russian forces close to the frontline in Ukraine’s south-east." (The Guardian : 27 August 2022) (my emphasis)

The "Lukashenko Nuclear Threat (ibid Aljazeera)" is Putin's response to the eyes of the world that are sharply focussed on the Zaphorizia Nuclear facility in Ukraine.

Burning off large amounts of natural gas (ibid Matt McGrath) is Putin's response to the EU beginning to wean themselves off their dependency on Russian gas.

And turning to volunteers, mercenaries and prisoners, is Putin's response to replace the thousands of fallen Russian soldiers in his raging war in neighbouring Ukraine.

Putin now has his back to the wall.

 

(to be continued)

Putin's "nuclear" and "gas" blackmail-military-strategy is all that he has left in his war toolbox.

In my last blog entry (16 August) I wrote that,

"It is now time for Putin's stalwart 'siloviki' to finally act to prevent Putin from unleashing such a nuclear disaster [at the Zaphorizia nuclear plant in Ukraine] that will, inevitably, light the fuse of WW3." (blog entry : 16 August 2022)

Heather Chen: MSN (CNN) : 22 August 2022

It would now seem, as reported by Marco Giannangeli (left), that,

"Senior Russian officers are becoming increasingly concerned about Vladimir Putin's conduct of the Ukrainian war, intelligence sources have revealed.
...
It follows a meeting in Paris last month between MI6 and a senior Russian civil servant, where it was claimed that a coterie of high-ranking Russian Army and Air Force officers were drawing up contingency plans to “impede" Putin's control of military policy.
...
Though it was not clear when they would strike, arrangements have already been made to give the group of officers safe haven in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, sources said. 

Following the deaths of 14 Generals killed on the front lines and a raft of sackings, the Russian premier [Putin] is now personally making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier” ( Express : 21 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin's strategy, it would seem, does not only have as its central theme his 'nuclear-blackmail' strategy regarding the Zaphorizia nuclear plant in Ukraine.

As summer begins to give way to autumn,  Putin is upping the stakes to ensure that the population of the EU, in no uncertain terms, suffer the freezing cold of the coming winter in their homes.

As reported by Christoph Steitz and Thomas Escrit
...
"Russia will halt natural gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month via its main pipeline into the region, state energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said on Friday, piling pressure on the region as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter.

The unscheduled maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, deepens an energy standoff between Moscow and Brussels which has already helped send inflation surging in the region and raised the risk of rationing and recession." (Reuters : 19 August 2022) (my emphasis)

They further report that,

"The move will bring further disruption particularly for Germany, which depends largely on deliveries from Moscow to power its industry

The European Union has accused Russia of using energy as a weapon. Moscow has denied the charge and has blamed sanctions for the drop in exports" (ibid Christoph Steitz and Thomas Escrit)

It is therefore no wonder that German Chancellor Scholtz, currently on a three day visit to Canada, 

"....  plan to discuss energy security and the transition to clean energy, "including through secure access to key resources like clean hydrogen and critical minerals," according to the Prime Minister's Office." (Marie Woolf and Mia Rabson : CTV News (taken from: Canadian Press) : 21 August 2022) (my emphasis)

All, however, is not well with this visit.

As further reported by Marie Woolf and Mia Rabson,

"Ukraine has criticized Trudeau and his government for a decision last month to agree to a request from Germany to exempt Siemens Canada from sanctions against Russia so it could return a turbine for use in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies natural gas to Germany.
..
 Canada’s permit also allows Siemens to import, repair and return five other turbines used in Nord Stream 1, according to their maintenance schedule, and is valid until the end of 2024.
...
In an interview, the Ukrainian ambassador to Canada, Yulia Kovaliv (right), called again for the waiver to be cancelled." (ibid Marie Woolf and Mia Rabson)

                         Ukraine and Germany testify on return of gas turbine to Russia: Global News : YouTube : 4 August 2022 

And as reported by Todd Prince (left),
...
Putin has tried to turn the tables on the EU by reducing gas flows to the bloc at a faster pace, helping drive prices to record highs and sparking fears that Russia might completely halt exports this winter.
...
Even if the war in Ukraine were to end immediately, irreparable damage has been done to the decades-old symbiotic gas relationship between Europe and Russia, he said.

“After building a reputation as a reliable gas supplier for more than 50 years, Russia has thrown it out the window in five months,” Ed Chow [energy analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)] said." (RFERL : 4 August 2022) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that, "a coterie of high-ranking Russian Army and Air Force officers were drawing up contingency plans to “impede" Putin's control of military policy." (ibid Marco Giannangeli)

The cost of Putin's "nuclear" and "gas" blackmail-military-strategy will be heavily borne by the Russian public, both present and future.

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin now on the brink of lighting the fuse of World War III?

Putin's 'nuclear' standoff at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has generated world-wide condemnation that he simply cannot ignore.

As reported by Tim Lister (left),

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of maximizing the risk of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was taken over by Russian forces in early March.
...
"If the Soviet authorities tried to hide the Chernobyl disaster and its full consequences, then the Russian authorities are much more cynical and dangerous. They themselves do everything to maximize the risk of a nuclear disaster and lie to the whole world that someone else is allegedly to blame," he said." (CNN : 11 August 2022) (my emphasis)
...
Zelensky accused Russia of turning the nuclear power plant into a "battlefield."" (CNN : 12 August 2022) (my emphasis) 

Inquirer.net : YouTube : August 2022

                               

And as as now reported by Michelle Nichols (right),

"The United Nations has the logistics and security capacity to support a visit by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, a spokesman said, but a Russia diplomat imposed conditions, saying routing any mission through Ukraine's capital was too dangerous." (Reuters : 16 AuguThomas Manchst 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: The South African : 15 August 2022)

Putin continues to find spurious arguments for NOT allowing the UN's IAEA to visit and inspect the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. 

Why???

Perhaps the answer lies in the fact that, as reported by Marc Santora, Michael Schwirtz and Jack Nicas,

"Despite suffering grievous losses over nearly six months of war, Russia still holds a distinct advantage over Ukraine in a head-to-head fight featuring brutal artillery battles. But Ukraine’s military has achieved some new battlefield success, waging the war on its own terms.
...
Supplied with a growing arsenal of long-range Western weapons and aided by local fighters known as partisans, Ukraine has been able to hit Russian forces deep behind enemy lines, disrupting critical supply lines and, increasingly, striking targets that are key to Moscow’s combat potential." (Japanese Times (from: New York Times): 9 August 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Thomas Manch,

"A further 120 New Zealand soldiers will deploy to the United Kingdom to train Ukrainian soldiers for frontline fighting against Russian troops.
...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the deployment on Monday afternoon, at her weekly press conference." (Stuff : 15 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Further adding to Putin's headaches, we now learn from John Varga (left) that,

"Putin's invasion of Ukraine has been a political and economic disaster for Russia, with the country now on the verge of becoming a pariah state. .... Moscow's increasing isolation on the world stage and the ruinous consequences of sanctions appear to have concentrated minds within Putin's inner circle.
...
With no end in sight to the war, reports have emerged that key officials close to the Russian president have decided to take matters into their own hands.
...
Ilya Ponomarev (right), an opposition activist and former MP, claimed

the mood among Kremlin elites was now one of panicand that there was a clear desire to negotiate an end to the war.

He said: "The signal of a desire to negotiate was sent by a person in Putin’s inner circle.
...
"I can’t name him. But you wouldn’t believe it. (Express : 14 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Supporting Ponomarev's claim that, "that key officials close to the Russian president have decided to take matters into their own hands", is the arrest of Igor Girkin.

As reported by Catherine Meyer-Funnell (left),

"Vladimir Putin is facing another global humiliation as Moscow have detained their own spy chief [Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov] as he was heading to the front line to fight, reports claim. (Express : 15 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Perhaps the offer of Kim Jung Un of North Korea to send 100,000 North Korean soldiers to help him in his failing war with Ukraine really underscores Putin's growing anxiety of the fractures ocurring within his 'siloviki'.

As reported by A.B. Abrams,

"Reports from a range of Russian sources and from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine have indicated that North Korea may deploy its armed forces for operations in the Ukrainian theater.

Reports of plans to dispatch military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk.... emerged from the media outlets of the republics, before being more widely publicized on the Channel One Russia state TV channel.

Although yet to be confirmed, the possibility of North Korean forces being deployed in some capacity to Ukraine  ......  remains significant based on prior trends in Pyongyang’s overseas force deployments and the benefits it, the contested republics, and Moscow itself could gain." (The Diplomat : 10 August 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Brady Knox : Washington Examiner : 15 August 2022)

                                                              CRUX : YouTube : 6 August 2022

As Putin turns the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant into a battlefield, North Korean troops joining those of Putin's demoralised soldiers in his war with Ukraine will be the spark that ignites a wider conflict in Europe and in the Far East.

Is Putin now on the brink of lighting the fuse of World War III?

STOP PRESS

19 August 13.48 UK time

BBC News reports that,

"Russia has rejected appeals for a complete demilitarisation of the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine.
...
The calls come amid growing concern over safety at the site - Europe's largest nuclear plant - as both sides accuse each other of shelling the area.
...
UN Secretary General António Guterres sounded the alarm after meeting Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Lviv on Thursday.
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"Any potential damage to Zaporizhzhia is suicide," Mr Guterres warned.
...
The Ukrainian president urged the UN to ensure demilitarisation of the nuclear plant - Europe's biggest. Mr Guterres added that "the facility must not be used as part of any military operation". (BBC News : 19 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now holding a 'nuclear gun' over the heads of EU countries that will be severely affected should his actions over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine cause a nuclear disaster.

As reported by Ellie Cook (left),

"Vladimir Putin has issued a veiled threat towards three European nations over the fate of the continent's biggest nuclear power plant.
...
As fears escalate of a nuclear disaster, the Russian defence ministry suggested that any such fallout would significantly impact three EU nations.
...
It pinpointed Germany, Poland and Slovakia as the countries most likely to be impacted by radioactive substances. (Express : 18 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Matthew Dooley (right) further reports that,

"The head of Russia's radiological protection forces Lt Gen Igor Kirllov presented a slide today which showed that in the event of a nuclear disaster, Germany, Poland and Slovakia would be heavily affected by the radiological fallout.
...
However, Olga Kosharna, an expert in nuclear energy and nuclear safety who previously worked at the State Nuclear Regulatory Authority of Ukraine, told Express.co.uk the radiation could reach several other surrounding countries depending on which way the wind is blowing during a "severe" accident.
...
She said: "In this scenario, [south blowing winds], the radioactive plume, [could] travel to Bulgaria, Romania, and the black sea region - in 23 hours it will reach Turkey." (Express : 18 August 2022) (my emphasis)

It is now time for Putin's stalwart 'siloviki' to finally act to prevent Putin from unleashing such a nuclear disaster that will, inevitably, light the fuse of WW3. 

   

(to be continued)

Putin, like a drowning man, is now beginning to clutch at "invisible" straws.

In my blog post 4 March 2022 I reported that,

"Putin is now using his first nuclear option ....

As reported by the BBC,

• "A fire broke out at the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - Europe's largest - after a Russian shelling attack. Ukraine responders have managed to extinguish the blaze

• Ukraine’s State Emergency Services said there were no victims from the fire, which didn’t affect the reactor sites but a nearby five-storey training site

• Russia’s attack sparked immediate condemnation from Western leaders who called it a “horrific” and “reckless” act that threatened the safety of all of Europe

Ukraine President Zelensky had hours ago called on other nations to take more action immediately againsty Putin's “nuclear terror”  (BBC News : 4 March 2022) (my emphasis)"

 

 (AlJazeera : YouTube : 3 March 2022)

 Fast forward to today and, as reported by Aliss Higham,

"The press service of [Ukraine's] Energoatom National Nuclear Energy Generating Company said on Telegram today that Russia is "ready" to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
...
The company said on Telegram: "The Russians do not hide their plans and are openly blackmailing the whole world, declaring that they have mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that they are ready to blow it up."...

"We [Putin's Russian army] are ready for the consequences of taking this step. And you, soldiers-liberators, you must understand that we have no other way. (Express : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)

                                                    NBC News : 8 August 2022

 And as reported by RFERL,

"UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for international inspectors to be given access to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant after Ukraine and Russia traded accusations over the recent shelling of the facility.
...
Guterres said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) needed access to the plant.
...
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned on August 6 that the latest attack "underlines the very real risk of a nuclear disaster."
...
Grossi urged all sides in the conflict to exercise the "utmost restraint" near the nuclear site.
...
The IAEA chief added that it was "of paramount importance" that the agency be allowed access to the plant "to provide technical support for nuclear safety and security." (RFERL : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)

This 'nuclear blackmail' of Putin comes against the backdrop of,

• The Pentagon announced another $1 billion in military support to Ukraine Monday that includes a cache of ammunition, explosives and medical supplies. (Evan Simko-Bednarski : New York Post : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)
•  Up to 80,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began in late February, a senior Pentagon official estimated. "The Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months," Under Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl said on Monday. (EuroNews : 9 August 2022) (my emphasis)
• Underlining these losses of Putin, Arpen Rai reports that, "North Korea is ready to send 100,000 soldiers to its ally Russia as military assistance for boosting its invasion of Ukraine, Russian military expert Igor Korotchenko said on state TV." (Independent : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)
• Ukraine says its troops advance towards Izium as fighting rages in Donbas (Natalia Zinets and Max Hunder : Reuters : 9 August 2022) (my emphasis) 
  

RFERL : 8 August 2022

• “Over the last 30 days, Russia’s assault towards the town of Bakhmut has been its most successful axis in the Donbas; however, Russia has only managed to advance about 10km during this time. (UK’s Ministry of Defence posted on Twitter with reference to British intelligence data.)
  ...
  As noted, Russia has not been able to generate capable combat infantry in sufficient numbers to secure more substantial advances despite its continued heavy use of artillery in these areas. (Ukrinform : 9 August 2022) (my emphasis) 
• An EU plan to cut gas consumption across the bloc by 15 per cent to cope with an energy price crisis spurred by Russia’s war in Ukraine comes into effect on Tuesday (9 August)
  
...
“Considering the imminent danger to the security of gas supply brought about by the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, this regulation should enter into force as a matter of urgency,” it said. (EuroActiv : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, continues to rant uncontrollably.

As reported by Reuters,

"One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies said on Monday that Russia would achieve its aims in the conflict in Ukraine on its own terms, warning that the West had a long-term plan to destroy Russia.
...
"Russia is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine and is attaining peace on our terms," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Russia's security council, told TASS in an interview." (Reuters : 8 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Medvedev's statement about Russia's beleaguered forces "attaining peace on our terms" ignores the current parlous state of the Russian economy.

Reporting on a new paper published by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, Ciaran McGrath informs us that,

"Russia's economy is heading for "oblivion" as a result of punitive economic sanctions imposed by the West in the wake of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, a damning report has indicated." 

• Russia’s position as a commodities exporter has ”irrevocably deteriorated”, with the country having lost access to its “erstwhile main markets”. (cf: EU plan to cut Russian gas consumption by 15%)
• Russian domestic production has come to a “complete standstill” with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent.
• The result has been a “hollowing out” of Russia’s production base, causing prices to soar. (Express : 4 August 2022) (my emphasis)

Is this what Medvedev meant when he said that Putin and his 'siloviki' will "attain peace on our terms", come what may?

Is Putin willing to completely destroy the Russian economy to satisfy his warped ambition of resuscitating the old USSR?

Indeed, notwithstanding his recent pronouncements about, "there are "no winners" in a nuclear war, and that no such conflict should ever be waged." (Miriah Davis (left) : Sky News : 2 August 2022) (my emphasis), 

.... let us not forget that shortly after his invasion of Ukraine in February of this year, "Mr Putin placed Russian nuclear forces on high alert, further heightening concerns of nuclear escalation." (ibid Miriah Davis)

Putin, like a drowning man, is now beginning to clutch at "invisible" straws.

(to be continued)

Is Putin now beginning to stare defeat in the face?

Putin's constant exhortations about the 'unstoppable' hypersonic capability of Russia's missiles  could be revealing that his invading army is seriously flagging in Ukraine.

At his recent speech to his Navy in illegally-occupied Ukraine's Crimea, David Averre (left) reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised his navy it will be equipped with devastating hypersonic 'Zircon' missiles in the coming months as fighting continues to rage in Ukraine and tensions escalate with the West.
...
Speaking on Russia's Navy Day aboard a vessel in St Petersburg, Putin praised Russian Tsar Peter the Great for making Russia a great sea power, and boasted of the unique capability of the hypersonic weapons. (Daily Mail : 31 July 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Guy Faulconbridge and William Maclean : Reuters : 31 July 2022)

Sky News : YouTube : 31 Juy 2022

And as he was boasting about his Zircon missile's capabilities, John Bacon, Jeanine Santucci and Jorge L. Ortiz report that,

"A drone attack at the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet wounded six people and shut down a festival marking Navy Day in the Crimean peninsula city of Sevastopol, the mayor said Sunday.
...
The Black Sea Fleet’s press service said the drone appeared to be homemade and described the explosive device as “low-power." Crimean authorities raised the terrorism threat level for the region to “yellow,” the second-highest tier." (Yahoo News : 31 July 2022) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times : YouTube : 1 August 2022

Even more disconcerting for Putin is the fact that, as reported by Malay Mail,

"Russia is “running out of steam” in its assault on Ukraine, the chief of Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence agency, Richard Moore (left), said in a brief comment on social media on Saturday.
...
Moore made the remark “Running out of steam...” above an earlier post on Twitter by Britain’s defence ministry, which described the Russian government as “growing desperate” and as having lost thousands of soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine. — Reuters" (Malay Mail : 30 July 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. Also: Charles Kupchan : Times Radio : YouTube : 29 July 2022)

UK Ministry of Defence Tweet : 29 July 2022

It would seem that it is not only Putin's army which is running out of steam.

Earlier, as reported by Asher McShane (left),

"Vladimir Putin has been filmed twitching and visibly uncomfortable with his legs shaking has speculation continues over his health." (LBC : 20 July 2022) (my emphasis) 

More recently (31 July 2022), as reported by Ansar News,

"President Vladimir Putin, 69, was filmed limping while he was given a tour of a military museum as part of a weekend of festivities marking Russia’s Navy Day. The Kremlin leader was also seen struggling to swat away flies from his face using his left arm while his right hung limply at his side. The video is one of many that have brought into question the health of the leader." (Ansar News : 31 july 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also : Daily Mail : 31 July 2022)

Will Stewart, Walter Finch, and Elizabeth Elkind: Daily Mail : 31 July 2022

However, we now have the EU, yet again, vaccillating over its support for Ukraine.

On the one hand, as reported by Euronews,

"– European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) on Friday condemned the atrocities committed by Russian armed forces and their proxies in Ukraine.

“The European Union actively supports all measures to ensure accountability for human rights violations and violations of international humanitarian law committed during the Russian aggression in Ukraine,” Borrell said in a statement." (Euronews : 30 July 2022) (my emphasis) 

And on the other hand, as Autumn approaches and Putin continues to limit the flow of gas through Nord Steam1 to the EU, Firstpost exposes the three critical concessions that the EU has made towards Putin.

"In the past week, the European Union has given three big concessions to Russia. Slowly, Europe seems to be withdrawing its harsh sanctions against Russia. Why is that the case? Has Vladimir Putin demonstrated his ability to cripple Europe’s energy security if the EU treats Moscow antagonistically?" (Firstpost : YouTube: 26 July 2022) (my emphasis)

• Kaliningrad transit ban reversed
• Withdrawal of sanctions on Russian oil
• Russian Banks assets unfrozen

 

Many EU countries are now gazing with horror at the effect of rising oil and gas prices on their economies, thanks to Putin's war with Ukraine.

 

Further afield, countries in Africa, the Middle East, and the Far East, are suffering because of the active blockade by Putin of grain and oil exports from Ukraine, nothwithstanding, as reported by Megan Durisin, Aine Quinn, and Onur Ant that,

 

"Russia and Ukraine reached a deal aimed at releasing millions of tons of grain through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports that, if implemented, would mark a vital step toward shoring up global food supplies." (Bloomberg : 22 July 2022) (my emphasis) 

Hardly had the ink dried on this deal when, as reported by European Forum,

 

"Optimism has been dampened shortly after an UN-approved grain deal between Ukraine and Russia was signed on July 22. The deal brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was to be an important step towards easing the global food crisis. Only a day later, Western leaders cried foul as Ukraine’s main wheat export hub was hit by Russian missiles. It came together with Russia announcing its EU gas exports would be lowered, something European leaders feared." (European Forum : 27 July 2022) (my emphasis)

Mark Trevelyn : MSN (Reuters) : 1 August 2022

 

Putin knows that any concessions he may make to ease the export of grain and cooking oil from Ukraine will rebound on him, especially amongst his ardent supporters in Russia.

 

Is Putin now beginning to stare defeat in the face?
 

(to be continued)