The internationally announced "peace plan" of Xi Jinping to end Putin's war with Ukraine shares much in common with the Minsk "peace plans" of Angela Merkel, a "peace plan" that had Putin's fingerprints all over it.
The Minsk I and Minsk II "peace plans" pushed by Merkel onto Ukraine had, as its backdrop, the agenda of Merkel (and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder) for the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have not only supplied Germany with cheap gas but, more importantly, made Germany the very hub of Putin's gas exports into the EU.
In like fashion, Emperor Xi Jinping is more than happy to suck cheap gas imports from Putin to offset Russia's loss of revenue from the EU due to the near drying up of EU imports of gas from Russia.
"As Russia flounders under the weight of Western sanctions and stalled offensive, China will “do enough to sustain a friendly regime in the Kremlin — and advance Chinese national interests — by purchasing Russian natural resources at knockdown prices, expanding the market for Chinese technology, promoting Chinese technological standards, and making the renminbi the default regional currency of northern Eurasia,” [Alexander] Gabuev [Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace] wrote. (MSNBC : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)
But let us examine Emperor Xi Jinping's "peace plan".
"China has proposed its so-called "peace plan", publishing "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"China can't have it BOTH ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. It can't be putting forward 'peace proposals', on the one hand, while actually feeding the flames of what Russia started ..."(US Today : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)
The 'political' and 'economic' upper hand that Xi Jinping now has over Putin is due, in no part, to the fact that,
"Vladimir Putin is 'terribly scared' as he marks the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine, says an ex-Russian secret services general.
The Russian dictator has badly misread the West's resolve to stand up to him, and did not realise his army's incompetence, according to the former chief of the Moscow division of the FSB.
'Putin perfectly understands the mood of people who have lost everything because of him,' said retired General Yevgeny Savostyanov. 'He understands this anger can find a way out, so he keeps them away." (Will Stewart and Chris Jewers : Mail Online : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"The Biden administration on Tuesday pledged to support the independence of the five Central Asian nations, in a not-so-subtle warning to the former Soviet states that Russia’s value as a partner has been badly compromised by its year-old war against Ukraine." (PBS News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)
C5+1 group, made up of the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
And now, we also have Israel pivoting towards supplying Ukraine with defensive arms.
"Netanyahu returned to power in late December amid expectations that he would pivot Israel in the direction of Russia. He has instead shored up his country’s backing of Kyiv under pressure from Israel’s most significant ally, the U.S. Now he has to weigh alienating Putin by providing defensive arms to Ukraine, a move he has yet to agree to and which Russia has already made it clear would be a red line. ... Senior Israeli lawmakers have already called on Netanyahu to provide Ukraine with anti-drone and anti-missile systems. ... They promised Zelenskyy to do everything possible to help ensure Israel sends defensive weapons." (NBC News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)
The Kremlin vultures are now beginning to swoop in on Putin.
"President Vladimir Putin's top spokesperson has urged Russians to be "patient" on questions about the dictator's future, as the war in Ukraine wears on with no end in sight and presidential elections in both Russia and Ukraine looming in 2024.
Dmitry Peskov told the Russian Izvestia newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that the elections scheduled for next year will be held, but Putin isn't yet ready to announce whether he will take part, as is widely expected." (Newsweek : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Relying on Chinese President Xi Jinping to bail him out from his current precarious position is all that Putin now has left to ensure his political survival.
Xi Jinping now has to decide whether it is in China's long term interests to throw Putin under the bus.
"World leaders meeting in Bavaria have called for Western allies to increase military aid to Kyiv. The Munich Security Conference comes ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (left), appealed for an increase in military support in areas such as ammunition supplies.
“I think now is the time really to speed up and scale up the production of the standardised products that Ukraine needs desperately," she said. "For example, standardised ammunition. We cannot wait months and years until we are able to replenish (stocks) and until we are able to deliver that to Ukraine.”" (EuroNews : 18 February 2023) (my emphasis)
And as world leaders are calling for 'speeding up and increasing' military aid to Ukraine, Patrick Wintour informs us that,
"The US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, prompting a direct warning against doing so from the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to China’s top diplomat [Wang Yi] (left). ... “The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.” (The Guardian : 18 February 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Sophia Barkoff : CBS News : 19 February 2023)
"Retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane on Sunday said Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning on Sunday that China could provide lethal aid to Russia could actually cause Beijing to cancel those plans. .. “And I think coming out and exposing — and I would go further and tell them — what we think they are attempting to provide, China will pull back, likely, after that public exposure.”
Keane called China and Russia “strategic partners” and said “we shouldn’t be surprised that China wants Russia to succeed.” " (The Hill : 19 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Caution should be exercised when assuming that, "China will pull back from supplying Putin with lethal weaponry after that public exposure by US Secretary Of State, Anthony Blinken".
And why not by also supplying Putin with lethal military equipment?
Which underscores, in the words of Ursula von der Leyen, that,
"“I think now is the time really to speed up and
scale up the production of the standardised products that Ukraine needs
desperately," she said." (ibid EuroNews)
Putin's paranoid desire to present the Russian public with some sort of military victory on Friday 24th, a year after his THIRD invasion of Ukraine, must be plaguing his mind.
"China's President Xi Jinping will deliver a "peace speech" on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, Italy's foreign minister said on Friday, apparently continuing Beijing's line of urging peace while avoiding condemnation of its ally Russia." (Reuters : 17 February 2023) (my emphasis)
A mere co-incidence?
Will Chinese Emperor Xi Jining now come to Putin's rescue?
Perhaps one of the more significant developments in Putin's war with Ukraine is the fact that, as reported by John Revill(left),
"Switzerland is close to breaking with centuries of tradition as a neutral state, as a pro-Ukraine shift in the public and political mood puts pressure on the government to end a ban on exports of Swiss weapons to war zones. ... "Other countries want to support Ukraine and do something for the security and stability of Europe... They cannot understand why Switzerland has to say no."
Increasing numbers of Swiss voters agree. A survey by pollsters Sotomo published on Sunday showed 55% of respondents favour allowing weapons re-exports to Ukraine." (Reuters : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)
That Switzerland is on the verge of breaking "Swiss neutrality, which dates back to 1815 and is enshrined by treaty in 1907" (ibid John Revill)underscores the dangers of Putin's build-up for a massive onslaught against Ukraine in the coming weeks.
"Tens of thousands of Russians are being sent to eastern Ukraine as part of an offensive planned after 15 February, according to the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region.
"We are seeing more and more reserves being deployed in our direction," said Serhiy Haidai, who expected a three-pronged Russian advance. Ukraine has warned repeatedly of an imminent offensive." (BBC News : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Countering Putin's build-up and expected onslaught against Ukraine's forces in eastern Ukraine, Felicia Schwartz and Ben Hall(left) report that,
"Kyiv’s allies have repeatedly crossed their red lines on weapons deliveries... ... The US and its partners have committed many of the systems once considered off limits, most recently tanks as well as Himar guided missiles and Patriot missile defence units, among other systems." (Financial Times : 8 February 2023) (my emphasis)
They further report that,
"Western officials and analysts have offered multiple reasons for the shift in tone, including concern in China about Russian nuclear brinkmanship. One senior western diplomat said it was the effect of a co-ordinated US-British-French warning to Moscow that any resort [by Putin] to [use] nuclear weapons [against Ukraine] would have “catastrophic consequences”." (ibid Felicia Schwartz and Ben Hall)
Even the, "United Nations chief Antonio Guterres (right) has warned nations that he fears
the likelihood of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
means the world is heading towards a "wider war." " (Ireland's RTE : 6 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Underscoring Antonio Guterres's warning that the world is heading towards a "wider war.", Olivia Burke now reports that,
"RUSSIA has suffered its deadliest day on the battlefield after Ukraine claimed to have killed over 1,000 troops in just 24 hours.
The blood of Putin's men was reportedly spilled before they had even advanced 30ft as they staged another winter assault in the east." (The Sun : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"Abbas Gallyamov, Putin’s former speechwriter who is now a political commentator, said the Russian president could be facing a rising tide of opposition at home as the war wears on, in an interview with CNN." (The Hill : 31 January 2023) (my emphasis)
Abbas Gallyamov goes on to explain that,
"“The Russian economy is deteriorating,” Gallyamov said. “The war is lost. There are more and more dead bodies returning to Russia, so Russians will be coming across more difficulties and they’ll be trying to find explanation why this is happening, looking around to the political process and they’ll be answering themselves: ‘Well, this is because our country is governed by an old tyrant, an old dictator.’” (ibid Stephen Neukam)
"Russia will "finally feel the impact" of its invasion of Ukraine as the country reports major economic trouble. The country’s deficit reached $25billion in January, meaning it had spent far more than it had earned. ... "This year Russians will finally feel the impacts of the war - huge amounts of Russian blood and treasure will be expended for Putin’s vanity project in Ukraine," said the economist Timothy Ash responding to the latest figures." (Express : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin is now clinging by his fingernails on the edge of the abyss into which he is about to fall.
Notwithstanding the many rumours circulating around the internet regarding the health, or otherwise, of Putin; what is certain is that the ramping up by the West of supplying the Ukrainian army with sophisticated weaponry to defend itself against Putin's impending onslaught against Ukraine has ruffled many feathers in the Kremlin and the Russian Duma.
"Weeks before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western officials agreed to send a flurry of offensive armored vehicles to Ukraine’s battlefields that they previously refused to deliver for fear of provoking Russia — heralding a new phase of international support for Kyiv." (Yahoo News (Air Force Times) : 18 January 2023) (my emphasis)
This 'new phase' of international support for Kiev is best exemplified by, as reported by the Kyiv Independent,
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in a CNN interview he would consider providing military aid, including Israel's Iron Dome air defense system, to Ukraine.
“Well, I’m certainly looking into it,” Netanyahu said when asked about the possibility of Israel sending the Iron Dome to Ukraine." (Kyiv Independent : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
And whilst Netanyahu is "considering" providing Ukraine with Israel's Iron Dome air defence system, AP News reports that,
"Ukraine’s defense minister said Wednesday that Ukrainian lives will be saved by a sophisticated air-defense radar that France is supplying and which is powerful enough to spot incoming missiles and exploding drones in the skies over all of Ukraine’s capital and its surrounding region.
The minister, Oleksii Reznikov, was so enthusiastic about what he called Ukraine’s new “electronic eyes” that he quickly coined a nickname for the Ground Master 200 radar — the “Grand Master.” " (AP News : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"France has signalled openness to sending fighter jets to Ukraine as western countries weigh the next steps in military assistance to help Kyiv resist Russian attacks.
“By definition, nothing is excluded,” President Emmanuel Macron said at a press conference in The Hague on Monday, adding that he had not received a request for jets from Ukraine. (Financial Times : 31 January 2023) (my emphasis)
"Washington is preparing to send missiles to Ukraine which could strike almost the entire Russian-occupied region of the country, US officials have said.
Two officials said the weapons announcement would be made this week in a new $2 billion package of military aid, according to Reuters.
It would be the first time Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), a new weapon designed by Boeing, were sent. (The Telegraph : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Is it therefore any wonder that, as reported by Caitlin McFall(right) that,
"Russia on Wednesday took aim at Israel and warned it not to get involved in the war in Ukraine by providing arms to Kyiv, claiming such a move would "lead to an escalation of this crisis." "We say that all countries that supply weapons should understand that we will consider these to be legitimate targets for Russia’s armed forces," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (below left) said according to a report by The Times of Israel.
"Any attempts — implemented or even unrealized but announced for the supply of additional, new or some other weapons — lead and will lead to an escalation of this crisis," she added. "And everyone should be aware of this." " (Fox News : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
What is rather interesting about this "threat of global war" from Maria Zakharova is that it has not publicly emanated either fromPutin nor from his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Besides having to contend with the accelerated inflow of advanced weaponry into Ukraine, Putin now also have to contend with the fact, as reported by Alarabiya News, that,
"Officials from ex-Soviet states in central Asia and the Caucasus say the war has prompted their governments to look for ways to reduce dependence on Moscow by turning to rival powers including Turkey, the European Union and Middle East countries. All spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing the Kremlin.
Current and former Russian officials, also speaking on condition they not be identified, said Moscow is reacting nervously, even harshly, as the Kremlin becomes less certain of its ability to assert influence in its own backyard." (Alarabiya News : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"Armenia has refused to host Russia’s military for routine exercises. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan harshly criticized Russian peacekeepers’ failure in the region. As a response, Moscow pushes Armenia to clarify its position." (Georgia Digital News : 22 January 2023) (my emphasis)
As he prepares to launch approximately 500,000 more Russian soldiers into his war with Ukraine, Putin's desperation to achieve some success against Ukraine to mark its one-year anniversary seems to primarily be focused on presenting the Russian people with a sense of success rather than failure.
"Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Russian forces were trying to make gains in order to showcase their progress by the war's Israel Nation Newsfirst anniversary, adding that the situation in the Donetsk province was dire.
“A definite increase has been noted in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher,” Zelenskiy said in a video address." (7 Israel National News: 2 February 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin is now drinking in the "Last Chance" saloon.
"Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies, will close its trade representation in Russia, the Prime Minister has declared.
Announcing the news, the country's Ministry of Trade said the offices will be closed down by order of Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov." (Expess : 1 February 2023) (my emphasis)
She goes on to further report that,
"In November, Putin travelled to Armenia for a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). ..... At the end of the summit, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan clashed with the Russian leader over Putin's reluctance to come to his aid in a conflict against Azerbaijan." (ibid Alessandra Scotto di Santolo)
And just yesterday, as reported by Tim Hanlon(right),
"Russia is planning something major to “gain the world’s attention” on the first anniversary of the war with Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. ... It appears as though Putin's plan is to overshadow events in the West to show support for Ukraine a year into the war, with Lavrov saying Russia "will do everything" to grab the attention. ... At the same time Russia has made veiled nuclear threats to the West over the way it has been providing military armaments for Ukraine." (Mirror : 3 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"President Vladimir Putin on Thursday vowed a decisive response to any country threatening Russia and lashed out against Germany for promising tanks for Kyiv.
His threats came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Kremlin was consolidating its forces for a fresh offensive. ... "We have something to respond with," he added. "A modern war with Russia will be completely different." (NDTV : 3 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"During a visit to Volgograd to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in the battle of Stalingrad, two of Putin's security guards were seen carrying black cases. It is said that one of the black cases carried by Putin's security guards serves as a foldable shield to protect him in case of an attack, while the other is thought to hold the button for launching Russia's nuclear weapons." (Express : 2 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"Vladimir Putin has compared Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the fight against Nazi Germany, in a speech to mark the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Battle of Stalingrad. ... "Those who hope to defeat Russia on the battlefield do not understand, it seems, that a modern war with Russia will be very different for them," the 70-year-old leader said. "We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond. It won't be limited to the use of armoured hardware. Everyone must understand this." (BBC News : 3 February 2023) (my emphasis)
"Is Putin staring into the abyss of declaring war against NATO?" (blog entry : 18 January 2023)
Hardly had the ink dried on US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholtz giving the 'green light' to supplying Abraham's and Leopard tanks to Ukraine than, as reported by Jack Newman(left),
"Russia is now 'at war against NATO and the West' and has taken the invasion of Ukraine to a 'different stage', a senior EU official has admitted, raising the terrifying spectre of a global conflict.
The 'game-changing' deal among Western leaders to pump sophisticated tanks into the [Ukraine] to blast through the Kremlin's invading forces has sparked fury in Moscow which has threatened to escalate the war beyond Ukraine's borders." (Mail Online : 27 January 2023) (my emphasis)
"Continued deliveries of arms to Ukraine by its allies in the West will lead to retaliation with “more powerful weapons,” a top official in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime said on Sunday. ... Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of Russia’s lower house, the State Duma, threatened Europe and the U.S. with “global catastrophe” over their continued military support to the government in Kyiv, which is trying to continue retaking territory it lost in the Russian invasion.
Volodin directly invoked the use of nuclear weapons in his statement over messaging app Telegram." (Politico : 22 January 2023) (my emphasis)
More significantly, as reported by Sophia Ankel (left),
"A military coup in Russia is likely as President Vladimir Putin is starting to look like a "second-rate dictator," his former aide said on Thursday. ... "As problems pile up in the country and the army, that the authorities are unable to solve, Putin is more steadily transforming in people's eyes from a great strategist to an ordinary, second-rate dictator," he [Abbas Gallyamov] said. (Yahoo News (Business Insider article) : 27 January 2023) (my emphasis)
Critically, Putin is having to scramble around to replenish his war machine.
Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's glove puppet, has been forced to deny that the Russian army is critically running low on missiles and artillery.
"Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev hit back on Tuesday at Western reports that Russia is running low on missiles and artillery, saying Moscow's weapons stocks were enough to continue fighting in Ukraine.
"Our opponents are watching, they periodically make statements that we don't have this or that ... I want to disappoint them. We have enough of everything," Medvedev said during a visit to a Kalashnikov factory in Izhevsk, around 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) east of Moscow." (Reuters : 23 January 2023) (my emphasis)
Unfortunately for Medvedev, as reported by CNN, Russia is suffering from serious military equipment shortages.
Whether or not Putin is seeking help from the Taliban, Medvedev, having to hit back at Western reports that Russia is running low on missiles and artillery, does signify that these Western reports have hit a raw nerve regarding the state of Putin's war machine.
We can, therefore, expect more dangerous 'nuclear sabre rattling' from Putin.
