Will Xi Jinping throw Putin under the political bus?

The internationally announced "peace plan" of Xi Jinping to end Putin's war with Ukraine shares much in common with the Minsk "peace plans" of Angela Merkel, a "peace plan" that had Putin's fingerprints all over it.

The Minsk I and Minsk II "peace plans" pushed by Merkel onto Ukraine had, as its backdrop, the agenda of Merkel (and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder) for the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have not only supplied Germany with cheap gas but, more importantly, made Germany the very hub of Putin's gas exports into the EU.

In like fashion, Emperor Xi Jinping is more than happy to suck cheap gas imports from Putin to offset Russia's loss of revenue from the EU due to the near drying up of EU imports of gas from Russia.

As Hayes Brown reported,

"As Russia flounders under the weight of Western sanctions and stalled offensive, China will “do enough to sustain a friendly regime in the Kremlin — and advance Chinese national interests — by purchasing Russian natural resources at knockdown prices, expanding the market for Chinese technology, promoting Chinese technological standards, and making the renminbi the default regional currency of northern Eurasia,” [Alexander] Gabuev [Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace] wrote. (MSNBC : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

But let us examine Emperor Xi Jinping's "peace plan".

As reported by  Ukrainska Pravda

"China has proposed its so-called "peace plan", publishing "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The published document has 12 points:

•  Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
•  Abandoning the Cold War mentality
•  Ceasing hostilities
  
•  Resuming peace talks
•  Resolving the humanitarian crisis
•  Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs)
•  Keeping nuclear power plants safe
•  Reducing strategic risks
•  Facilitating grain exports
•  Stopping unilateral sanctions
  
•  Keeping industrial and supply chains stable
•  Promoting post-conflict reconstruction (Yahoo News (Ukrainska Pravda) : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)
  

 In the words of US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, .

"China can't have it BOTH ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. It can't be putting forward 'peace proposals', on the one hand,  while actually feeding the flames of what Russia started ..."(US Today : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The 'political' and 'economic' upper hand that Xi Jinping now has over Putin is due, in no part, to the fact that,

"Vladimir Putin is 'terribly scared' as he marks the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine, says an ex-Russian secret services general.

The Russian dictator has badly misread the West's resolve to stand up to him, and did not realise his army's incompetence, according to the former chief of the Moscow division of the FSB.

'Putin perfectly understands the mood of people who have lost everything because of him,' said retired General Yevgeny Savostyanov. 'He understands this anger can find a way out, so he keeps them away." (Will Stewart and Chris Jewers : Mail Online : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's growing fears, PBS News (Associated Press) report that,

"The Biden administration on Tuesday pledged to support the independence of the five Central Asian nations, in a not-so-subtle warning to the former Soviet states that Russia’s value as a partner has been badly compromised by its year-old war against Ukraine." (PBS News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

C5+1 group, made up of the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And now, we also have Israel pivoting towards supplying Ukraine with defensive arms.

As reported by  Tovah Lazaroff,

"Netanyahu returned to power in late December amid expectations that he would pivot Israel in the direction of Russia. He has instead shored up his country’s backing of Kyiv under pressure from Israel’s most significant ally, the U.S. Now he has to weigh alienating Putin by providing defensive arms to Ukraine, a move he has yet to agree to and which Russia has already made it clear would be a red line.
...
Senior Israeli lawmakers have already called on Netanyahu to provide Ukraine with anti-drone and anti-missile systems.
...
They promised Zelenskyy to do everything possible to help ensure Israel sends defensive weapons." (NBC News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The Kremlin vultures are now beginning to swoop in on Putin.

As reported by David Brennan

"President Vladimir Putin's top spokesperson has urged Russians to be "patient" on questions about the dictator's future, as the war in Ukraine wears on with no end in sight and presidential elections in both Russia and Ukraine looming in 2024.

Dmitry Peskov told the Russian Izvestia newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that the elections scheduled for next year will be held, but Putin isn't yet ready to announce whether he will take part, as is widely expected." (Newsweek : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Relying on Chinese President Xi Jinping to bail him out from his current precarious position is all that Putin now has left to ensure his political survival.

Xi Jinping now has to decide whether it is in China's long term interests to throw Putin under the bus.

(to be continued)

Will Chinese Emperor Xi Jinping now come to Putin's rescue?

The dust is beginning to settle on the recent 2023 Munich Security Conference held in Bavaria, and top of the agenda was Putin's war against Ukraine.

DW : 15 February 2023 : YouTube

As reported by EuroNews,

"World leaders meeting in Bavaria have called for Western allies to increase military aid to Kyiv. The Munich Security Conference comes ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (left), appealed for an increase in military support in areas such as ammunition supplies.

“I think now is the time really to speed up and scale up the production of the standardised products that Ukraine needs desperately," she said. "For example, standardised ammunition. We cannot wait months and years until we are able to replenish (stocks) and until we are able to deliver that to Ukraine.”" (EuroNews : 18 February 2023) (my emphasis)

And as world leaders are calling for 'speeding up and increasing' military aid to Ukraine, Patrick Wintour informs us that,

"The US has said it believes China may be about to provide lethal aid to help Russia in the war in Ukraine, prompting a direct warning against doing so from the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to China’s top diplomat [Wang Yi] (left).
...
“The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.” (The Guardian : 18 February 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Sophia Barkoff : CBS News : 19 February 2023)

MSNBC : 19 February 2023

Julia Mueller (left) informs us, however, that,

"Retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane on Sunday said Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning on Sunday that China could provide lethal aid to Russia could actually cause Beijing to cancel those plans.
..
“And I think coming out and exposing — and I would go further and tell them — what we think they are attempting to provide, China will pull back, likely, after that public exposure.”

Keane called China and Russia “strategic partners” and said “we shouldn’t be surprised that China wants Russia to succeed.” " (The Hill : 19 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Caution should be exercised when assuming that, "China will pull back from supplying Putin with lethal weaponry after that public exposure by US Secretary Of State, Anthony Blinken".

The downing of that Chinese spy balloon, brimful with electronic sensors, that recently traversed the US, indicates that Emperor Xi Jinpin (right) of China is flexing his military muscle against the US.

And why not by also supplying Putin with lethal military equipment?

Which underscores, in the words of Ursula von der Leyen, that,

"“I think now is the time really to speed up and scale up the production of the standardised products that Ukraine needs desperately," she said." (ibid EuroNews)  

Putin's paranoid desire to present the Russian public with some sort of military victory on Friday 24th, a year after his THIRD invasion of Ukraine, must be plaguing his mind.

Co-incidentally, as reported by Gianluca Semeraro (left),

"China's President Xi Jinping will deliver a "peace speech" on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, Italy's foreign minister said on Friday, apparently continuing Beijing's line of urging peace while avoiding condemnation of its ally Russia." (Reuters : 17 February 2023) (my emphasis)

A mere co-incidence?

Will Chinese Emperor Xi Jining now come to Putin's rescue?

 

(to be continued)

Putin is clinging on the edge of an abyss by his fingernails.

Perhaps one of the more significant developments in Putin's war with Ukraine is the fact that, as reported by John Revill (left),

"Switzerland is close to breaking with centuries of tradition as a neutral state, as a pro-Ukraine shift in the public and political mood puts pressure on the government to end a ban on exports of Swiss weapons to war zones.
...
"Other countries want to support Ukraine and do something for the security and stability of Europe... They cannot understand why Switzerland has to say no."

Increasing numbers of Swiss voters agree. A survey by pollsters Sotomo published on Sunday showed 55% of respondents favour allowing weapons re-exports to Ukraine." (Reuters : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)

That Switzerland is on the verge of breaking "Swiss neutrality, which dates back to 1815 and is enshrined by treaty in 1907" (ibid John Revill) underscores the dangers of Putin's build-up for a massive onslaught against Ukraine in the coming weeks. 

As reported by Russel Kirby (right),

"Tens of thousands of Russians are being sent to eastern Ukraine as part of an offensive planned after 15 February, according to the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region.

"We are seeing more and more reserves being deployed in our direction," said Serhiy Haidai, who expected a three-pronged Russian advance.

Ukraine has warned repeatedly of an imminent offensive." (BBC News : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)

ABC News (Australia) : 3 February 2023 : YouTube

Countering Putin's build-up and expected onslaught against Ukraine's forces in eastern Ukraine, Felicia Schwartz and Ben Hall (left) report that,

"Kyiv’s allies have repeatedly crossed their red lines on weapons deliveries...
...
The US and its partners have committed many of the systems once considered off limits, most recently tanks as well as Himar guided missiles and Patriot missile defence units, among other systems." (Financial Times : 8 February 2023) (my emphasis)

They further report that,

"Western officials and analysts have offered multiple reasons for the shift in tone, including concern in China about Russian nuclear brinkmanship. One senior western diplomat said it was the effect of a co-ordinated US-British-French warning to Moscow that any resort [by Putin] to [use] nuclear weapons [against Ukraine] would have “catastrophic consequences”." (ibid Felicia Schwartz and Ben Hall)

Even the, "United Nations chief Antonio Guterres (right) has warned nations that he fears the likelihood of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict means the world is heading towards a "wider war." " (Ireland's RTE : 6 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Antonio Guterres's warning that the world is heading towards a "wider war.", Olivia Burke now reports that,

"RUSSIA has suffered its deadliest day on the battlefield after Ukraine claimed to have killed over 1,000 troops in just 24 hours.

The blood of Putin's men was reportedly spilled before they had even advanced 30ft as they staged another winter assault in the east." (The Sun : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)

This echo of Russia's WW2 'Stalingrad strategy' that Putin is now employing in eastern Ukraine could be due, as reported by Stephen Neukam (left), 

"Abbas Gallyamov, Putin’s former speechwriter who is now a political commentator, said the Russian president could be facing a rising tide of opposition at home as the war wears on, in an interview with CNN." (The Hill : 31 January 2023) (my emphasis)

Abbas Gallyamov goes on to explain that,

"“The Russian economy is deteriorating,” Gallyamov said. “The war is lost. There are more and more dead bodies returning to Russia, so Russians will be coming across more difficulties and they’ll be trying to find explanation why this is happening, looking around to the political process and they’ll be answering themselves: ‘Well, this is because our country is governed by an old tyrant, an old dictator.’” (ibid Stephen Neukam)

 CNN : 3 February 2023 : YouTube

Luke Whelan (left) further reports that,

"Russia will "finally feel the impact" of its invasion of Ukraine as the country reports major economic trouble. The country’s deficit reached $25billion in January, meaning it had spent far more than it had earned.
...
"This year Russians will finally feel the impacts of the war - huge amounts of Russian blood and treasure will be expended for Putin’s vanity project in Ukraine," said the economist Timothy Ash responding to the latest figures." (Express : 7 February 2023) (my emphasis)
 

 

Putin is now clinging by his fingernails on the edge of the abyss into which he is about to fall.

 

(to be continued)