"Vladimir Putin's blundering efforts in Ukraine have forced the Kremlin to pull a large number of Russian troops away from other deployments with huge geo-strategic importance to Russia." (Express : 6 July 2023) (my emphasis)
McNulty goes on to report that,
"The UK Ministry of Defence has reported that Russia is moving units to the front-line in Ukraine from bases 7000km awaywhere they serve as a strategic counterbalance to Chinese power." (ibid Tim McNulty)
"Vladimir Putin's Russian government is on the brink, secret internal Russian analysis has suggested.
Ukraine’s
Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), headed by spymaster Major-General
Kyrylo Budanov (left), has access a Russian study conducted by the Russian
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD). ... The report, Mr Budanov said, has suggested the country is primed for a civil war which could tear the country apart." (Express : 5 July 2023)
(my emphasis)
More sinister, as reported by Yousra Elbagir(right : Sky News reporter), "Senior sources from [the Central African Republic's] ministry of defence and an official from the Russian embassy have revealed around 400 Wagner employees left the capital on two planes on Wednesday, confirming local reports of Wagner disengagement. ... One ministry of defence official said the Wagner Group personnel who left refused to sign new contracts with Russia's ministry of defence." (Microsoft Start (Sky News report) : 7 July 2023) (my emphasis)
"The rouble sank to its lowest level against the dollar since the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, as the repercussions of Wagner’s aborted insurrection heap further pressure on a currency already groaning under the weight of western sanctions." (Financial Times : 6 July 2023) (my emphasis)
She goes on to further report that,
"[Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Global Markets] said that on the day of the mutiny, Russians withdrew some Rbs100bn, an amount of withdrawals comparable to when the Kremlin announced a mass mobilisation in September." (ibid Anastasia Stognei)
Further causing Putin to furiously pace around in his bunker, Lorne Cook reports that,
" NATO leaders will agree next week to help modernize Ukraine’s armed forces, create a new high-level forum for consultations and reaffirm that it will join their alliance one day, the organization’s top civilian official said Friday. But the war-torn country will not start membership talks soon.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (right) said that when U.S. President Joe Biden and his counterparts meet for a two-day summit in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, they also will agree to boost defense spending as alliance members pour weapons, ammunition and other support like uniforms and medical equipment into Ukraine." (Associated Press : 7 July 2023) (my emphasis)
If Putin is furiously pacing around in his bunker because NATO alliance members continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, then he must be apoplectic with rage on learning that,
"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed support early Saturday for Ukraine joining NATO, saying the war-torn country deserves to join the alliance.
Erdogan made the comment at a joint news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who arrived in Turkey as part of a European tour to rally support for Ukraine's entry into the military alliance after the war with Russia comes to an end." (CTV News (Associated Press article) : 8 July 2023) (my emphasis)
Not only are the walls of his bunker closing in on Putin, the nightmare of Prigozhin's troops currently in Africa now heading to join Prigozhin in Belarus, or even in Russia, must be causing him to face his imminent demise.
"Vladimir Putin is “bitter and “disenchanted” like “Hitler and Saddam Hussein” in the final moments of their rule
and could be on the brink of losing power, a defence expert claims.
Echoing some of the worst dictators in history, the Russian despot will
be “fuming” after the recent rebellion by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin exposed his shaky grasp on rule." (Express : 27 June 2023) (my emphasis) "
This 'bitterness and dis-enchantment' of Putin after the recentYevgeny Prigozhin rebellion is evidenced, as reported by Elena Salvoni(right), that,
"Vladimir Putin's forces unleashed destruction on a funeral gathering in eastern Ukraine today, according to reports, with dozens injured in an airstrike as mourners gathered to remember a fallen soldier from an elite fighting unit. (Mail Online : 4 July 2023) (my emphasis)
"Preliminary findings suggest the strike - which hit the town of some 28,000 people miles away from the frontline - was carried out by a Russian Iskander missile." (ibid Elena Salvoni)
"Ukraine is reportedly “preparing for a nuclear explosion” at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, heightening tensions in the wake of Russia’s first overnight drone attack on Kyiv in 12 days. (News.com :3 July 2023) (my emphasis)
"Russian troops have been ordered to leave the power plant — which has been under Russian control since March 2022 — by July 5, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine." (ibid Isabel Keane)
"The Ukrainian armed forces quoted "operational data" as saying that the devices had been placed on the roof of the plant's third and fourth reactors on Tuesday, adding that an attack was possible "in the near future".
Ukrainian president Mr Zelenskyy said: "Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant." (Microsoft Start: Sky News: 5 July 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin bombing a funeral in Ukraine, and on course to blowing up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant, signifies not only his dangerous state of mind but also his real fear of losing power as his 'siloviki', the very backbone of his power, now also begins to disintegrate.
"Xi Jinping personally warned Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, indicating Beijing harbours concerns about Russia’s war even as it offers tacit backing to Moscow, according to western and Chinese officials. ... Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that “Russia has never and will never have China’s approval for using nuclear weapons”. If Russia used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, “China will further distance itself from Russia”, he added. ... But the statement indicated that even China may be unable to fully deter Putin, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “Nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance Putin has against losing this war catastrophically.” (Financial Times : 5 July 2023) (my emphasis)
Deeply reinforcing Putin's "weaponizing" of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant against him catastrophically losing his war against Ukraine is, according to Fareed Zakaria(right),
"It is fair to say that Russia's (Putin's) biggest problem is not that it (Putin) is losing the Ukraine war but rather that it (Putin) is losing the 21st century" (CNN : YouTube : 3 July 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin now teeters on the edge of the abyss of setting off a serious confrontation with NATO and, possibly, lighting the fuse for WW3.
UPDATE1 5 July 2023 : 17.26
Max Parry (left) reports that,
"Senior US Senators are demanding Joe Biden deploys the 'full weight of NATO' if Putin blows up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and now a former British Army colonel has pleaded that Britain supports that same threat against the Kremlin. ... The UK must join the US and the rest of the NATO alliance to warn Vladimir Putin, that if he orders an internal explosion within the reactors of the Zaporizhzhia power plant, triggering a nuclear catastrophe, the West will be "all in" to crush the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a former British Army colonel has said. ... In a grim statement, he [Hamish de Bretton-Gordon] said it was "quite likely" that Putin's troops had placed explosives inside the reactors at the nuclear plant and that if he was to order their detonation, the resultant contamination would travel "westwards" under the current weather conditions." (Express : 5 July 2023) (my emphasis)
Will Putin now jump into the abyss of a war with NATO?
The Progozhin political earthquake that struck Putin over the last week-end continues to have political aftershocks in the Kremlin amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.
"Prigozhin accused a "clan of oligarchs" of starting the war for their benefit, so they could pillage Ukraine and said, sarcastically, that the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine were "pretty stories." (Haaretz : 24 June 2023) (my emphasis)
More critically, Pfeffer asks,
"But the more immediate question is: Whom will the Russian people believe now? [Putin or Prigozhin?](ibid Anshel Pfeffer)
"Vladimir Putin is “bitter and “disenchanted” like “Hitler and Saddam Hussein” in the final moments of their rule and could be on the brink of losing power, a defence expert claims. Echoing some of the worst dictators in history, the Russian despot will be “fuming” after the recent rebellion by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin exposed his shaky grasp on rule." (Express : 27 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin's 'bitterness and disenchantment' is best illustrated by the recent cruel and callous bombing of a pizza restaurant in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk by Putin's forces.
"At least eight people are dead, including three children, while dozens more have been injured after a Russian missile strike hit a restaurant in Ukraine, Kyiv officials have said.
It's feared more casualties are trapped in the rubble and debris following the attack in Kramatorsk.
It's understood the popular Ria Lounge restaurant was hit, which was "packed" with volunteers, soldiers and journalists at the time of the attack." (The Mirror : 27 June 2027) (my emphasis)
And against the backdrop of this criminal attack against civilians by Putin's forces, Mike Stone(left) reports that,
"The United States will provide Kyiv with a new military package worth up to $500 million, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, in a show of support for Ukraine's fight against Russia as Moscow deals with the aftermath of a mutiny by mercenary fighters.
The package will include ground vehicles including Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, and munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, according to a statement from the Pentagon." (Reuters:27 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that the Alliance must not underestimate Russia despite the recent events and stressed the importance of providing further support to Ukraine. ... “We all saw the events in Russia over the last days. These are internal Russian matters. But what is clear is that President Putin’s illegal war against Ukraine has deepened divisions, and created new tensions in Russia. At the same time, we must not underestimate Russia. So it is even more important that we continue to provide Ukraine with our support. And I expect that our Summit in Vilnius will send a clear message of our commitment,” Stoltenberg said." (Ukrinform : 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Perhaps even more disconcerting for Putin, besides the reaffirmation by Stoltenberg of NATO's commitment to continue to support Ukraine in its war against Putin, is the announcement by China’s envoy to the European Union (EU), Fu Cong(left), that,
"In an interview with Al Jazeera, China’s envoy to the European Union (EU), Fu Cong, suggested that China supports Ukraine’s goal of restoring its territorial integrity.
Fu answered “I don’t see why not” when questioned about whether he supported Ukraine’s objectives of restoring its borders as they were in 1991.
This includes the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia forcibly annexed from Ukraine back in 2014." (Yen Zhi Yi: Mothership News: 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)
As Richard Ashmore wrote,
"Vladimir Putin is “bitter and “disenchanted” like “Hitler and Saddam Hussein” in the final moments of their rule" (ibid Richard Ashmore )
The countdown for Putin, as pointed out by Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser, has begun.
UPDATE 1 : 07.14 June 29 2023
Interviewed by Mika Brzezinski(left) on MSNBC (28 June 2023) Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, said,
"This is, and remains in many ways, an extraordinary moment because I think it further revealed the failure of Russia's war in Ukraine, both abroad and also at home.
And we're seeing some cracks emerge not just in what it's doing on the ground in Ukraine but, .. if you put this in perspective it's really extraordinary. .... Across the board this has been a failure for Putin and we're now seeing internal cracks emerge, not just the external ones in terms of his prosecution of the war." (MSNBC : 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Interview of Anthony Blinken by Mika Brzezinski(28 June 2023)
"What will Ukraine’s victory in this war look like?
We often hear this question from our international partners.
However, Ukraine is fighting an existential war — a war for survival.
Therefore, Russia’s aggression against our country is a zero-sum game. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine; Ukraine wants to survive. And under these circumstances, it’s difficult to find compromise." (Politico : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)
He goes on to state that,
"Today, for Ukraine, a stable and just peace is impossible without the implementation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ten-point peace plan, restoring the country’s territorial integrity, establishing justice and building a new European security architecture." (ibid Politico)
"The UK foreign secretary, James Cleverly, has said all Nato allies are backing a plan to give Ukraine a fast track to Nato membershipof the kind offered to Sweden and Finland earlier this year." (The Guardian : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"The French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna (left), was more cautious [ about fast-tracking Ukraine's membership of NATO] but said circumstances had changed since 2008 when Ukraine was last offered Nato membership on the condition it met the terms set out in an action plan." (ibid Patrick Wintour)
"Paris considers pushing Ukraine’s membership as a “security guarantee” in its own right, since it could discourage Russia from continuing the war or, should the conflict come to an end, prevent any further aggression." (The Telegraph : 20 June 2023) (my emphasis)
This 'mealy-mouthed' approach of Macron is no doubt influenced by the fact that Putin is once again 'spitting nuclear nails' at the 'fast-tracking' on Ukraine into NATO.
"President Zelensky said: “Intelligence has received information that Russia is considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - a terrorist act with a release of radiation.”
He added: “They have prepared everything for this.” (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"Vladimir Putin has warned new nuclear warheads will be ready use in the near future as Ukraine continues to advance in key areas. ...
Russians living in occupied Crimea have been told to flee the area after Vladimir Putin recently escalated nuclear tensions by saying nuclear warheads are ready for use.
Oleksiy Danilov (right), Kyiv’s national security and defence council (NSDC) secretary, has advised any Russians living [in Crimea] to flee to their home country, saying they are not permitted refuge in Ukraine." (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Perhaps most disconcerting of all, Joel Day reports that,
"Vladimir Putin is said to suffer from multiple mental and physical issues, with one alarming recent episode reportedly experienced by his closest guards. ... It was the first report of its kind: Vladimir Putin had suffered a nervous breakdown. ... Added to the difficulties around Russia's offensive is Putin's deteriorating health. The Russian President is believed to be undergoing chemotherapy treatment for cancer." (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"Diplomats and business leaders from dozens of countries met in London on Wednesday to drum up funds to help rebuild Ukraine.
The cost of reconstruction is estimated by the World Bank at over €366bn in the long-term with €12.8bn in immediate aid but the figure is rising alongside the human toll of the 16-month war. ... US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to announce a new US assistance package at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which is both a fundraising forum and a message to Russia that Ukraine’s allies are in it for the long haul." (EuroNews : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin's "Novorossiya" dream that he conceived of shortly before invading Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 is now hanging by a very very slender thread, and he is FULLY aware of it.
"Almost as if to answer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement the counteroffensive is “slower” than some might have imagined, a pinpoint strike hit a key pair of bridges for Russia’s occupation. The Chonhar bridges are both rail and road crossings, and head from the northeast of occupied Crimea to Ukraine’s main target in this counteroffensive: occupied Zaporizhzhia region. ... Alexei Zhivoff, a Russian military blogger, said Thursday the Chonhar bridge was more a “land corridor”, and carried 70% of the military and civilian traffic to and from Crimea. He added the blast showed the area was easily within reach of NATO-supplied missiles and that Russian air defences were inadequate." (CNN : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary [Yevgeny Prigozhin (left)] group has vowed to "go all the way" to topple Russia's military leadership, hours after the Kremlin accused him of "armed rebellion". (BBC News :24 June 2023) (my emphasis)
More significantly, Putin's FSB boss and current close confidant, Nikolai Patrushev now finds himself next-in-line for the wrath of Prigozhin.
"Russian state media reported that the FSB (headed byNikolai Patrushev (right)) , Russia's security service, has opened a criminal case against Mr Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion" and attempting to start armed civil conflict in Russia. ... The FSB also reportedly called on Wagner fighters to disobey his orders and to take steps to apprehend him. (ibid Christy Cooney & Rebecca Seales)
This totally fluid situation within Putin's Kremlin and his "Command and Control" centre has the international community watching with deep concern.
For Zelensky and the Army of Ukraine, these developments could not have come at a better time as Putin's "Command and Control" Generals now find themselves having to deal with Yevgeny Prigozhin's army at the expense of mounting a defence against the imminent punch of Zelensky's final counter-offensive.
We now wait to see what is going to happen.
IMPORTANT UPDATE 08.33 on 26 JUNE 2023
The swift "backtracking" by Putin of his criminal case against Mr Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion", has left many international observers scratching their 'political heads'.
"After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.
First, Yevgeny Prigozhin declares he's ready to "go all the way" in his mutiny against the Russian military. Then he makes a sudden U-turn and orders his Wagner fighters back to base." (BBC News : 26 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Furthermore,
"In a TV address, President Vladimir Putin declares the rebellion "a criminal adventure… a grievous crime… treason… blackmail and terrorism." Yet just a few hours later, as part of an agreement with Prigozhin, it's revealed that all criminal charges against the Wagner leader are being dropped." (ibid Steve Rosenberg) (my emphasis)
"This is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that Putin has written forhimself and for Russia," Blinken [US Secretary of State (left)] said on NBC News' "Meet the Press." "Economically, militarily, its standing in the world – all of those things have plummeted." (USA Today : 25 June 2023) (my emphasis)
As I stated (cf above),
"Putin's dream of "Novorossiya" is now crumbling in his hands.
"But Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said instead of making diplomatic overtures to Russia it should be frozen out diplomatically to send a message that the international community condemned its invasion.
Kyiv would not enter negotiations with Moscow while it still occupied Ukrainian territory, Mr Zelensky said." (ibid BBC News)
And as Cyril Ramaphosa was calling for a de-escalation in Putin's war with Ukraine Putin, however, decided to send a message to the African delegation in Kiev by targeting Kiev with missiles.
"The delegation’s arrival in the Ukrainian capital was met with a missile barrage from Russia that injured at least four people, including a child. Reuters reported seeing the African heads of state fleeing to a nearby hotel to use its air-raid shelter, though a spokesperson for Ramaphosa later tweeted that they “didn’t hear the sirens or explosions” and that the peace mission was “proceeding as planned.” (Foreign Policy : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis)
It is rather interesting to note that the South African delegation“didn’t hear the sirens or explosions”.
"No such attacks were carried out by Russia when the Chinese envoy Li Hui visited Kyiv in May, not in the least because Putin is increasingly reliant on his communist partner, and this latest assault shows that the autocrat [Putin] has “zero respect” for the African delegation and their peace proposal, the former [US] ambassador added. " (Express : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis)
But there was another dimension to this African delegation's visit to Kiev.
Besides Cyril Ramaphosa speaking about "de-escalation" and "peace", Sky News also reports that,
"Peace is not the only matter on the agenda for the African leaders, however.
Officials also want to examine how Russia can be paid for fertiliser exports it desperately needs - despite sanctions against Moscow.
They are also looking at getting more vital grain shipments out of Ukraine.
Mr Ramaphosa said after his meeting with Mr Zelenskyy that there should be an opening up of logistics for both grain and fertiliser." (Sky News : 17 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"South Africa, Senegal and Uganda have avoided censuring Moscow for the conflict, while Egypt, Zambia and Comoros voted against Russia last year in a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow's invasion." (ibidSky News)
Besides bombing Kiev whilst Cyril Ramaphosa and the African delegation were in Kiev Putin has, more ominously and vigorously, threatened to unleash a "nuclear" strike against Ukraine.
"President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that his deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, something he confirmed for the first time had already happened, was a reminder to the West that it could not inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. ... "Just talking about this (the potential use of nuclear weapons) lowers the nuclear threshold. We have more than NATO countries and they want to reduce our numbers. Screw them," said Putin." (Reuters : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis)
"Rampant speculation about the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has persisted for months, with some sources now claiming his closest allies are getting nervous about his imminent demise. ... The intelligence, leaked from the Pentagon, marked one of the most serious leaks of US intel in recent years. ... It claimed that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were behind the plot to “sabotage” Putin’s war effort.(Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)
Putin's 'nuclear' threats should no longer simply be viewed as 'bluster'.
UPDATE 1: 18 June 2023
Yesterday the African Delegation, headed South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, met with Putin.
"The African leaders then traveled [from Kiev] to St. Petersburg on Saturday to meet with Putin who was attending Russia’s showpiece international economic forum. ... Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) said after the three-hour meeting that the Africans’ peace plan consisted of 10 elements, but “was not formulated on paper.”(NBC News (Associated Press) : 17 June 2023) (my emphasis)
The Associated Press go on to report that,
“The peace initiative proposed by African countries is very difficult to implement, difficult to compare positions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. But ”President Putin has shown interest in considering it.” (ibid Associated Press)
Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (right), rather let the 'cat out of the bag' regarding Putin's dismissive attitude towards the African delegation's 'peace' proposals when he said that these proposals are "difficult to compare positions", and that "Putin has shown interest in considering it".
Let us recall Putin's recent stance regarding his use of nuclear weapons.
"Just talking about this (the potential use of nuclear weapons) lowers the nuclear threshold. We have more than NATO countries and they want to reduce our numbers. Screw them," said Putin." (ibidAndrew Osborn )
In so many words, Putin showing "interest only" in the African delegation's 'peace' proposals could be read as "Screw your 'peace' proposals!"
