Trump is now in charge of Putin's destiny.

In my last blog entry (22 January 2025) I wrote that,

"Let us not forget that Putin illegally invaded Ukraine, and illegally incorporated into Russia that part of Ukraine his army still [illegally] occupies."

And true to form, the "bromance" between Putin and Trump is now plain for everyone in the world to see.

As Andrew Feinberg (right) writes,

"President Donald Trump claimed in part two of a televised interview that the nearly three-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine that started when Moscow’s forces kicked off an [Putin's] invasion [of Ukraine] in 2022 was the fault of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s failure to preemptively capitulate before Russian troops began their attack.
...
He added that had he been in Zelensky’s position he could have “made that deal so easily.” He claimed that it was the Ukrainian leader who decided on hostilities even though it was Putin who ordered the invasion of Ukraine that violated a 1994 agreement. Russia and the United States agreed then to guarantee Kyiv’s security in exchange for Ukraine’s government giving up Soviet-era nuclear weapons that had been stored there before the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union." (The Independent on MSN: 24 January 2025) (my emphasis)

In his opening remarks to the assembled crowd at Davos (23 January 2025) , Trump stated that,

"Out efforts to secure a 'peace settlement' between Russia and Ukraine are now hopefully underway .. It's so important to get that underway"

It should be noted that earlier, during the 2024 US presidential race, he constantly pronounced that he would, "End the war in Ukraine on day one of taking office."

 

Hindustan Times: 23 January 2025: YouTube

It is also interesting to note that in his speech to the assembled crowd at Davos, Trump, at the end during question time, stated that, 

"I knew that it [Ukraine] was the apple of President Putin's eye, but I knew there was no way he was going in, and he wasn't going to go in" 

 

Euronews: 23 January 2025: YouTube

Trump is now loudly and internationally claiming that,

"[Putin's] invasion [of Ukraine] in 2022 was the fault of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s failure to preemptively capitulate before Russian troops began their attack." (ibid Andrew Feinberg)

Now recall that, as reported by Chris Samuel (right) only 3 days ago,

"Donald Trump has warned Vladimir Putin that "he's destroying Russia by not making a deal" as he eyes talks to end the war in Ukraine. (Express: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Now Trump is claiming that Zelensky should have "capitulated" to Putin immediately he invaded Ukraine for the SECOND time in 2022.

Could this claim of Trump be due to the fact that, as reported by Martin Sandbu (left),

"The reality is that the financial underpinnings of Russia’s war economy increasingly look like a house of cards — so much so that senior members of the governing elite are publicly expressing concern." (Financial Times: 12 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Sandbu goes on to further point out that,

"A new report by Russia analyst and former banker Craig Kennedy (right) highlights the huge growth in Russian corporate debt. It has soared by 71 per cent since 2022 and dwarfs new household and government borrowing.

Notionally private [i.e. a Shadow Economy], this lending is in reality a creature of the state. Putin has commandeered the Russian banking system, with banks required to lend to companies designated by the government at chosen, preferential terms. The result has been a flood of below-market-rate credit to favoured economic actors." (ibid Martin Sandbu)

Trump, it would now seem, is intent on saving Putin, notwithstanding his warning to Putin that,

"He [Putin] should make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal.

"I think Russia's going to be in big trouble," the Republican firebrand added." (ibid Chris Samuel) 

Trump's urgency to save Putin is underscored by that fact that at Davos he stated that,

"Out efforts to secure a 'peace settlement' between Russia and Ukraine are now hopefully underway .. It's so important to get that underway"  (Hindustan Times: 23 January 2025: YouTube)

 

 Unlike at Helsinki in 2018, when Putin seemed to be in charge of Trump; Trump is now in charge of Putin's destiny.

                                         

(to be continued)

Putin now sits astride the Horns of a Dilemma.

The dust has begun to settle as Trump takes oves the reigns from Biden as President of the US.

And during his inauguration speech, as reported by Stephen Collinson,

"The new president was watched at close quarters by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai, and Mark Zuckerberg, representing internet giants X, Amazon, Google and Meta, who control the sources of information that decide how hundreds of millions will perceive the second Trump presidency." (CNN: 20 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Following his inauguration, a downpour of Trump unravelling much of the Biden legacy has left both international politicians and reporters scrambling to read the left-behind tea-leaves of Trump's mountain of executive orders, ranging from the pardoning of over 1000 of the criminally convicted rioters of the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack, to the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Treaty.

His previous electioneering and rather 'boastful' promise to " ... end Putin's war against Ukraine on day one of his presidency ( Fred Kaplan June 23, 2023)  has now morphed into "100 days to find a solution".

As Kevin Liptak (right) reports,

"President Donald Trump has missed his deadline for ending the war in Ukraine.

Of course, no one truly believed Trump would be able end the grinding, three-year conflict in 24 hours, as he implausibly promised repeatedly as a candidate. Even his new special envoy to Ukraine has asked for 100 days to find a solution. " (CNN: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis) 

Times of India on MSN: 21 January 2025

Subsequently, as reported by Chris Samuel (left),

"Donald Trump has warned Vladimir Putin that "he's destroying Russia by not making a deal" as he eyes talks to end the war in Ukraine.
...
Speaking to reporters upon his return to the Oval Office, Trump said: "He [Putin]should make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal.

"I think Russia's going to be in big trouble," the Republican firebrand added." (Express: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Underlining Trumps assertion that, "I think Russia's going to be in big trouble", John Varga  (right) reports that,

"Russia is in the process of "collapsing" and the world needs to prepare for potential nuclear chaos inside the country, a former US senior military commander (Retired general Ben Hodges: left) has said. ...
"I think the Russian Federation is collapsing now. It’s not in a straight line, but it is happening," he said." (Express: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis)

The incoming US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, also expresses an urgency about Putin ending his war in Ukraine.

As reported by Kateryna Serohina (right),

"In a conversation with the media, Rubio (left) admitted that he could not  provide a specific timeframe for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, he stated that both sides will have to make concessions to end the conflict.

Rubio also clearly acknowledged Russia as the aggressor in this war." (RBC Ukraine on MSN: 20 January 2025) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in my last blog entry,

"Everything now hinges on how the EU will react to ANY Trump-Putin meeting about the war in Ukraine that EXCLUDES Zelensky.

UK Prime Minister Sharmer has already pledged to put Ukraine in the "strongest possible position" regarding ANY negotiations about ending Putin's war in Ukraine.

Whither now the EU??" (blog entry: 17 January 2025)

Given Trump's antipathy towards NATO (cf: Mark Webber: The Conversation on Yahoo: 15 January 2025), it is no wonder, as reported by  Sylvie Corbet (right) that,

"French President Emmanuel Macron (left) called on Europe Monday to “wake up” and spend more on defense in order to reduce its reliance on the United States for its security, in a speech to the French military as Donald Trump returns to power." (AP: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis) 

And as James Reynolds also reports,

"Thousands of British troops are travelling to Romania to take part in massive mobilisation drills ahead of the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine.

Around 2,500 British personnel, along with hundreds of vehicles, are moving across the continent by land, air and sea to join allies in the Balkans.

The operation, called Steadfast Dart, aims to highlight the bloc's ability to mobilise at speed, amid a slew of World War 3 threats from Putin allies in recent months." (Daily Mail on MSN: 20 January 2025) (my emphasis)

 Ben Hodges is correct in stating that, "I think the Russian Federation is collapsing now. It’s not in a straight line, but it is happening,", especially in light of the fact that,

"Russia is potentially facing the prospect of catastrophic hyperinflation, as the wartime economy threatens to overheat.
...
Almost all the experts who advise members of the [Russian] Politburo agree that this year inflation will be three-digit." (John Varga: Daily Express: 21 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Putin now has no other choice but to EITHER confront NATO with war OR, as Marco Rubio states, ".. both sides will have to make concessions to end the conflict."

Putin now sits astride the Horns of a Dilemma.

UPDATE : 22 January 2024 : GMT 18:04

Ketrin Jochecová (left) reports that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened massive tariffs and sanctions on Russian products if Vladimir Putin fails to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
...
"We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better," Trump said." (Politico: 22 January2025) (my emphasis) 

Times of India: 21 Januay 2025: YouTube,

But as Akayla Gardner (left) points out,

"The US imported about $4.6 billion worth of goods from Russia in 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, accounting for less than 0.2% of total imports. The US has already imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, though it’s struggled to persuade some of Russia’s key trading partners — such as India — to scale back its purchases." (Bloomberg: 22 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Could US president Trump's threat be mere 'window dressing' , as a prelude to an intimate meeting with Putin to 'privately' discuss (remember Helsinki : 2018) the Ukraine war that he started , and with the absolute mutual exclusion of Zelelsky, President of Ukraine?

Let us not forget that Putin illegally invaded Ukraine, and illegally incorporated into Russia that part of Ukraine his army still occupies.

                                                                               

 

 

(to be continued)

The spectre of Putin's war-shadow readies itself to engulf Europe

 On Monday, 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will don the mantle of the President of theUS.

 And on that day, the 'bromance' between Trump and Putin will re-emerge.

As Palki Sharma reports,

"US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that plans are underway for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. With Trump’s return to the White House on January 20,  some anticipate a diplomatic resolution to end to the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, while others in Kyiv fear that a swift peace deal could come at a high cost for Ukraine." (Firstpost:16 January 2025) (my emphasis)

 

 Firstpost:16 January 2025

Palki Sharma (left) raises the most critical question viz.,

"Russia claims to have launched a missile attack on Donetsk. For Trump’s upcoming meeting with Putin, will Ukrainian President Zelensky receive an invite?" (ibid Palki Sharma)

And in anticipation of this new 'bromance' between Putin and Trump, Sarah Rainsford reports that,

"Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to put Ukraine in the "strongest possible position" on a trip to Kyiv where he signed a "landmark" 100-year pact with the war-stricken country." (BBC News: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis) 

Meanwhile, as  reported by Andrey Sychev,

"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) indirectly  criticised Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his reluctance to approve a further 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in additional military aid for Ukraine.

"To be honest, it hurts me a lot," she said without mentioning the chancellor's name in an interview with Politico released on Friday, adding that for some politicians gaining a few votes was more important than securing Europe's peace and freedom." (Reuters: 17 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Similarly, as reported by DPA International on Yahoo News,

"German opposition lawmakers on Thursday accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) of dirty campaign tactics over his demand for additional borrowing to finance an aid package for Ukraine worth €3 billion ($3.1 billion).
...
For Klein, Scholz is "carrying out election campaign manoeuvres on the backs of the Ukrainians."

The criticism was echoed by Johann Wadephul from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, who said "Scholz's new dodge on the issue of further aid for hard-pressed Ukraine is a real low point in the current election campaign." " (DPA International on Yahoo News: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by Kieron-monks (left),

"Kremlin officials are cautiously welcoming the return of Donald Trump and building relations with his administration, while aiming to avoid reviving “Russiagate” scandals that dogged Trump’s first term, and tempering expectations about his policies on Ukraine.

The Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (right), praised the president-elect – who takes office on 20 January – for raising Nato expansion as a factor in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 ...
Moscow’s stated conditions before potential talks include that Russia must retain four regions of Ukraine its forces annexed in 2022, and that Ukraine must never join Nato – both terms rejected by Kyiv and its allies, although Trump and his team have expressed greater openness." (The i Paper on MSN: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin is cracking open the champagne to toast Trump being inaugurated as US president on Monday.

Everything now hinges on how the EU will react to ANY Trump-Putin meeting about the war in Ukraine that EXCLUDES Zelensky.

UK Prime Minister Sharmer has already pledged to put Ukraine in the "strongest possible position" regarding ANY negotiations about ending Putin's war in Ukraine.

Whither now the EU??

The spectre of Putin's war-shadow readies itself to engulf Europe.

UPDATE: 19 January 2025: 12:09 GMT

Just before the impending inauguration of Trump as the President of the US, a NATO F-16 pilot was killed in Ukraine in a deadly missile strike.

 Hindustan Times: 19 January 2025: YouTube 

Given the continuing negative perception of NATO by Trump (cf.: Firstpost:16 January 2025), and the expected upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, we should NOT expect the renewed 'bromance' between them to be in any way effected.

                                                                               

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin is furiously treading water in the deep political puddle he is floundering in.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (3 January 2025),

Palki Sharma (below) is correct in stating that,

 

"Donald Trump's plan may still work. To deliver peace he will have to build consensus. He made it sound like a 'cakewalk'. But it may turn out to be one of the toughest challenges of his presidency. We do hope he 'cracks' it."      ( cf  Palki Sharma vidio: Firstpost: 3 January 2025)

Confirming what Palki Sharma has said, we now have Trump, himself, adding to the diplomatic toughness of his  pre-US President boastful assertions about quickly ending Putin's war in Ukraine.

As reported by Tony Diver (right),

"Donald Trump’s impromptu declaration that America will acquire Greenland, the Panama Canal and possibly Canada during his second presidential term have set the hares running in embassies across the world.
...
Germany and Denmark have all warned Mr Trump not to pursue Greenland, which has been in Danish hands since the early 19th century, and expressed alarm over his refusal to rule out a military invasion to secure it." (Daily Telegraph: 8 January 2025) (my emphasis)

ABC News: 27 December 2024: YouTube

By following in the 'country-invasion playbook' of Putin, when he invaded Ukraine for the second time in 2022, Trump's assertion that he does not, "... rule out a military invasion of Greenland to secure it", must surely be music to Putin's ears.

No wonder, as Palki Sharma reported in her video,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) has outright rejected peace proposals linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s team, casting doubt on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Lavrov criticised the Trump camp's leaked ideas, including delaying Ukraine's NATO membership by 20 years and stationing European peacekeeping troops within Ukraine." (ibid Palki Sharma)

We should not discount the fact that soon-to-be 78 year-old US President-elect, Donald Trump, is surrounding himself with a coterie of much younger internet oligarchs like Elon Musk and, more recently, Mark Zuckerberg (right: Musk and Zuckerberg)

Their control over the global data on the internet is governed by their ideology of near 'absolute free-speech' for everyone in the world, an ideology which is sending shivers down the spines of world leaders and politicians. 

As Chris Hayes (left) reports,

"With less than two weeks until Donald Trump takes office, an actual real-life — not metaphorical — oligarchy is coalescing around the president-elect. It’s pretty unprecedented in the context of the United States and ominous in many respects, but it is also a genuinely clarifying development for the pro-democracy coalition, especially as it prepares its opposition to the second Trump administration." (MSNBC: 8 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Chris Hayes  MSNBC: 8 January 2025

Is is any wonder that, as reported by France 24,

"Ukraine's Western allies will gather with President Volodymyr Zelensky at a US base in Germany on Thursday in their last such meeting before Donald Trump returns to the White House in less than two weeks.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce a substantial new military aid package for Kyiv at the 25th such talks at Ramstein Air Base that will include representatives from some 50 countries.

Ukrainian president Zelensky only confirmed late Wednesday that he will fly in for the meeting.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas were also expected at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting starting at 1000 GMT alongside German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius." (France 24: 9 January 2025) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Alex Marquardt (right) reports,

"The Biden administration has announced the final tranche of military aid it will send to Ukraine, amounting to about $500 million.
...
The last package comes as the White House prepares to announce another round of sanctions on Russia, expected at the end of this week. US officials have argued they are trying to give Ukraine the greatest leverage possible ahead of possible negotiations to end the war this year." (CNN: 9 January 2025) (my emphasis) 

So whilst Putin seems to be digging in his heels by rejecting peace proposals linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s team, in the hope that Trump will cave in to his demands; given that Trump himself wants to invade and annex Greeenland, the dire state of Russia's economy and army is being internationally displayed for all to see.

Putin is now treading water in the deepening political puddle he is floundering in.

UPDATE: 11 January 2024 : GMT 09:56 

Putin is now drowning under the weight of new economic sanctions descending upon the failing Russian economy.

As Alexander Butler,Vishwam Sankaran and Tom Watling report,

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed new oil sanctions on Russia by the UK and US, thanking the two allies for their “unwavering support” against Russia’s war machine.

Washington announced a comprehensive new sanctions package against Russia’s oil industry on Friday with trade restrictions imposed on nearly 200 Russian vessels, dozens of traders, some senior Russian oil executives, and two major oil companies.

The UK also imposed its own restrictions on the Russian oil giants – Gazprom Neft and PJSC Surgutneftegas." (The Independent on MSN: 11 January 2025) (my emphasis)

The Independent on MSN: 11 January 2024

  Mari Yamaguchi (left) also reports that,

"Japan’s Cabinet on Friday approved additional sanctions against Russia over its war on Ukraine, including freezing the assets of dozens of individuals and groups and banning exports to dozens of organizations in Russia and several other countries that have allegedly helped it evade sanctions." (AP: 10 January 2025) (my emphasis) 

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by Thibault Spirlet (right),

 "Russia's elites are growing tired of waiting for the war to end and are concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy, according to a report by Meduza.

High-ranking sources told the independent Russian outlet that Russia's "elites" are disappointed that the war with Ukraine didn't end in 2024.
...
Russia's economy has also come under strain due to persistent high inflation, slowing economic growth, and Western sanctions." (Business Insider: 10 January 2025) (my emphasis)

With the possible upcoming meeting between incoming US president Trump and Putin, the critical question is:

"Will Trump now throw Putin a lifeline to save him from politically drowning?"

                                 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's "Do or Die" choice about ending his war 'peacefully' in Ukraine in 2025.

As we enter the New Year of 2025, let us recall that,

"On 14 March 1939, Slovakia, led by Vojtech Tuka (1880-1946), declared itself independent, an act which was encouraged by Hitler as a means to break up the remainder of the old Czechoslovakia.
...
On 15 March, on the pretext that they were “invited to restore order" (McDonough, 80), German soldiers marched into what remained of Czechoslovakia. 

Hitler, later the same day, made a triumphant tour of Prague." (Mark Cartwright: World History: 30 October 2024) (my emphasis)

Mark Cartwright (right) goes on to record in his article that,

"Hungary, as promised by the First Vienna Award of 2 November 1938 (an agreement between the Axis powers), seized the southern parts of Ruthenia and a southern slice of Slovakia – both of these areas had large or majority Hungarian populations." (ibid Mark Cartwright)

Fast foreward to 2024 and Gabriel Gavin, Ketrin Jochecová and Hanne Cokelaere report that,

"As ordinary Slovaks were preparing to celebrate Christmas and New Year, their populist prime minister [Robert Fico] was locked in a battery of diplomatic talks in Brussels and Moscow to try and keep Russian gas flowing to the country.

But, after his bid to keep paying the Kremlin for fuel failed — and the pipelines were turned off as 2024 came to an end — his increasingly hysterical warnings of an energy crisis in Central Europe look to be hot air." (Politico: 2 January 2025) (my emphasis)

They go on to report that,
".... the Slovak leader [Robert Fico] has even threatened to cut off electricity exports to Kyiv in retribution for its refusal to renegotiate the deal with Russia, teaming up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to pressure Ukraine." (ibid Gabriel Gavin, Ketrin Jochecová and Hanne Cokelaere)

Just as Hungary and Sovakia stood with Germany during WW2,  we now, in 2024, have history repeating itself as Fico and Orbán confront the rest of the EU countries by supporting Putin with their demand that Ukraine pipelines continue to allow Russian gas to flow into Slovakia and Hungary, irrespective of the fact that the Ukraine-Russia pipeline contract has expired. 

And as Orban and Fico team up against Ukraine, Tara Copp (right) reports that,

"President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States will send nearly $2.5 billion more in weapons to Ukraine as his administration works quickly to spend all the money it has available to help Kyiv fight off Russia before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
...
Biden said all longer-term USAI funds have now been spent and that he seeks to fully use all the remaining drawdown money before leaving office.

“I’ve directed my administration to continue surging as much assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible,” Biden said in a statement. “At my direction, the United States will continue to work relentlessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in this war over the remainder of my time in office.” " (AP :  30 December 2024) (my emphasis)

Spurrring Biden on is the fact that, as Maya Mehrara (right) reports,

"Russia has rejected parts of Donald Trump's proposed Ukraine peace plan, according to comments given in an interview by Moscow's foreign minister to the state news agency Tass.

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow is "not satisfied" with elements of the president-elect's peace plan that were revealed in an interview with Time magazine and other leaks, namely delaying Ukraine's ascent to NATO by 20 years and deploying a contingent of EU and U.K. peacekeepers in Ukraine." (Newsweek: 30 December 2024) (my emphasis) 

Palki Sharma: Firstpost: 3 January 2025

As I wrote in my last blog post (28 December 2024), and which underscores what that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has said (cf: Palki Sharma: Firstpost: 3 January 2025),

"But, as Chris Jansing (left) reports,

"I want to read to you what John Kirby has to say about Putin's comments [about peace talks]. He described them as vacuous and said, "This is not a man that anyone should take seriously when it comes to saying, "...  he is ready for a negotiated settlement ...".

She then asks the former US ambassador to Ukraine [William Taylor], "Are you as sceptical as John Kirby?"

To which the former ambassador replies, "I am Chris .. I am" (MSNBC on MSN: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)

MSNBC on MSN: 27 December 2024

 

Palki Sharma (below) is correct in stating that,

 

"Donald Trump's plan may still work. To deliver peace he will have to build consensus. He made it sound like a 'cakewalk'. But it may turn out to be one of the toughest challenges of his presidency. We do hope he 'cracks' it." (video above: Palki Sharma: Firstpost: 3 January 2025)

In 2025, Putin will have to make a "Do or Die" choice about ending his war in Ukraine 'peacefully'.

            

 

 

(to be continued)