"An escalation in U.S. sanctions against Moscow risks derailing a fragile
recovery in Russia’s economy, which had just begun to take hold after
the Kremlin’s last confrontation with the West in 2014, analysts and
investors said on Monday.
...
Russia’s rouble suffered its biggest daily fall in over three years on
Monday and stocks in major Russian companies also slid, as investors
reacted to the new sanctions....[A]luminum
giant Rusal (0486.HK) lost over half its value in Hong Kong after its main owner Oleg Deripaska was named on the sanctions list." (Reuters : April 9, 2018) (my emphasis)
By contrast,
"Recent revisions to GDP data revealed that the [Ukrainian] economy performed better
last year than previously thought. Strong wage growth, higher government
spending and robust investment drove growth in 2017, although soaring
imports dampened the external sector’s performance. The available data
for the first quarter of 2018 suggests that the recovery remains on
track, albeit moderate given the severity of Ukraine’s recession." (Focus Economics : April 10, 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Focus Economics March 29, 2018)
"The EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee (PAC) states that Kyiv has prospects of becoming a member of the European Union provided it complies with certain principles." (UNIAN : 20 April,2018) (my emphasis)
This pronouncement by the PAC will further bolster the positive economic performance of the Ukrainian economy in the coming months.
Not only is Ukraine's economy growing whilst it is at war with Putin's Russia, we now learn that,
"The United State’s 22nd Permanent Representative to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison (left), has guaranteed Ukraine of the United States support for their induction into NATO. She expressed this confidently during a panel discussion at the eleventh Security Forum, which was set-up by the Open Ukraine Fund. She said, “We want Ukraine to become a NATO member, I can assure you.... (Kurt T : SOFREP : 16.04.2018) (my emphasis)
No doubt Putin is spitting nails at this US support for Ukraine joining NATO.
In response to these positive developments for Ukraine,
"Russian-led forces [launched a] savage Grad attack against defenders of Lebedynske in Donbas.
...
Since the beginning of the day, the Ukrainian military have recorded eight militant attacks, including with the use of banned Grad multiple rocket launchers." (UNIAN : 20 April, 2018) (my emphasis)
Putin's soldiers and proxies in Ukrainian Donbas are now also resorting to attacking Ukrainian civilians.
"U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker (right) has commented on a recent attack on personnel of Voda Donbasa's Donetsk Water Filtration Plant by Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine, saying that targeting civilians is unacceptable. "Very worrisome. Targeting civilians is unacceptable: #NotATarget," he tweeted on Tuesday evening." (UNIAN : 17 April, 2018) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile,
"Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with German Chancellor
Angela Merkel on Tuesday and discussed the situation around Syria and
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Kremlin said" (Polina Devitt : Reuters : April 17, 2018) (my emphasis)
As a sop to those who are against Nord Stream 2,
"Merkel appeared to signal a decrease in support for the planned pipeline
last week, saying on April 10 that there were "political
considerations" to take into account.
...
She said that she had told Putin by phone that the project could not go
ahead without clarity on Ukraine's role as a gas transit route." (RFE/RL :
In this I am somewhat reminded of that secret Treaty of Rapallo (1922) between Germany and the then Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, in particular Article 5, which states that,
"Article 5:The two Governments shall co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in
meeting the economic needs of both countries. In the event of a
fundamental settlement of the above question on an international basis,
an exchange of opinions shall previously take place between the two
Governments. The German Government, having lately been informed of the
proposed agreements of private firms, declares its readiness to give all
possible support to these arrangements and to facilitate their being
carried into effect. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)
So what, exactly, did Putin and Merkel whisper into each other's ears during their recent phone conversation?
Is it also purely co-incidental that,
"Germany's Europe minister [Michael Roth (left), a member of the Social Democrat party (SPD)] called on Monday for a new policy of easing tensions with Russia, adding to a chorus of voices pressing Chancellor Angela Merkel to moderate her hardened stance towards the Kremlin." (The Hindu (Reuters) :
April 16, 2018) (my emphasis)
One can already hear the distant thud of German Business Jackboots trampling all over Ukraine towards Putin's Russia.
In May of 2014, an article appeared in The Economist entitled, "Germany and Russia : How Very Understanding"
This article goes on to explain the attachment of the German word, "versteher " to Putin. Specifically it points out that,
"The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher:
members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia
and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at
dinner parties.
They include two former [German] Social Democratic chancellors. In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt (left: with Putin) said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”.
Like Putin, who in March of 2017 said that,
"... the Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline was purely economic and not directed against other countries,
as he met the head of German chemicals group BASF, a potential partner
in the project" (Reuters: March 22, 2017),
we also have Angela Merkel, the Putinversteher, arguing that,
“We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy
diversification. We also want Ukraine to continue to have transit gas
traffic, but we believe Nord Stream poses no danger to diversification,”
she said" (Joseph Nasr & Noah Barkin : Reuters : February 16, 2018) (my emphasis)
And so,
"Germany has approved the construction and operation of the
Russia-built Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, its operator and the German
maritime authority said on Tuesday.
...
The Nord Stream 2 operator
said it expected that other four countries along the route of the
undersea gas pipeline – Russia, Finland, Sweden and Denmark – will issue
permits in the coming months." (Reuters : March 27, 2018) (my emphasis)
Unfortunately, however, whilst Finland has recently given Putin permission "to use the Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for the construction of the pipeline", little Denmark finds itself in a real political quandary over whether it, too, should allow Putin's gas pipeline to cross through its territorial waters.
"The Danish government is facing fierce lobbying by Russia, EU allies and
the United States over the 9.5 billion euro ($11.7 billion) Nord Stream
2 project championed by President Vladimir Putin and financed by five
Western firms.
...
A Danish veto, under new legislation allowing it to do so on security
grounds, would force Russia, which supplies about one third of Europe’s
gas needs, to find a new route for the pipeline.
... “This is not
about gas, it is one of the most important foreign policy decisions in
Denmark since the Cold War,” said senior foreign policy researcher Hans
Mouritzen at the Danish Institute for International Studies." (Reuters : March 26, 2018) (my emphasis)
And whilst Denmark is agonizing over whether it should grant Putin a permit to allow his Nord Stream 2 pipeline into their territorial waters, Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko, continues in his efforts to get a UN mandate for UN peacekeepers in the Donbas.
"Answering a question [in an interview with Handelsblatt] on how Berlin and Brussels should act in this regard, the president said: "They should urgently ensure that we can get the mandate from the UN Security Council. Plus it's about ceasefire... After all, amid the ongoing hostilities, peacekeepers will not be able to deploy there. And our Western partners should further realize that sanctions are an extremely effective tool - only they can force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. If the Russian aggression continues, sanctions will need to be strengthened." (UNIAN : 9 April, 2018) (my emphasis)
Adding to Poroshenko's call for UN peacekeepers to be deployed throughout the Donbas,
"Turkey is ready to participate in a U.N. peacekeeping mission in
Donbass, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's press service said
Monday following a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
...
"President Petro Poroshenko informed the Turkish side on the
situation in Donbass. … Turkey welcomed the deployment of the U.N.
peacekeeping mission in the occupied area of Donbass and stated
willingness to take part in this mission," the statement said." (Daily Sabah : 10 April, 2018) (my emphasis)
Against the backdrop of Poroshenko's efforts to bring peace to the Donbas,
" Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 35 times in the past 24 hours, with three Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA)." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2018) (my emphasis)
Putin's Nord Stream 2 pipeline is an integral part of his war with Ukraine and, as Darius McQuaid reports,
"The [Nord Stream 2] pipeline will double the amount of Russian gas arriving in Germany and Russian energy giant Gazprom, which is behind the pipeline, already accounts for around one third of European gas supply.
Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko said the project is “political bribe money for [German] loyalty to Russia.”
He told German business paper Handelsblat the pipeline holds “no economic justification” but German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defended the pipeline by saying it is a purely “economic project”. (Express : April 9, 2018) (my emphasis)
And now we await the Danish decision on whether to grant Putin permission for his Nord Stream 2 pipeline to cross through their territorial waters, just as we await the decision of the UN whether to grant Ukraine's call for a UN peacekeeping forces to patrol throughout the Donbas.
Denmark now has the power to immediately stop Putin's Nord Stream 2 dead in its tracks.
(to be continued)
Addendum: 11 April, 2018
In my blog entry of 22-4-2015, I wrote that,
"Former Polish President Lech Walesa(right)is more cautious, however. He argues that,
"..the West should confront Russian President Vladimir Putin with its ownarsenal of nuclear weapons to curb what he called Russian aggression." (Dennis Lynch : International Business Times : April 08 2015) (my emphasis)
Let us remind ourselves that, as Julian Isherwood reported in March,
"Russia has gone on the offensive in the Baltic, warning Denmark that if
it joins Nato’s missile defence shield, its navy will be a legitimate
target for a Russian nuclear attack." (The Telegraph : 21 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)"
One can now only hope that the Danish Parliament's decision about permission for the Nord Stream Pipeline2 to pass through their territorial waters will not be clouded by Putin's 2015 threat about them becoming a legitimate target for a Russian nuclear attack.
"And at last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,
"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last weekto make sure the
new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to
fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all
Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)"
I further wrote that,
"Diana Denman (right),
a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican
National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,
".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing
sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing
lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military."
It is now emerging, as reported by Mark Hosenball (left), that,
"Investigators probing whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign
colluded with Russia have been questioning witnesses about events at the
2016 Republican National Convention, according to two sources familiar
with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiries." (Reuters : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis)
Specifically, Mueller is investigating the 'watering down' of Diana Denman's proposal calling for increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing
lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military" at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee that were made by Manafort, and other Trump cohorts, in collusion with Putin's Russian operatives at the 2016 Republican National Convention.
Yet again is the 'Scarlet Thread Of Maidan', the thread that led to the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck, once more bubbling to the surface of the Mueller investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US Presidential elections, which led to Trump now occupying the White House.
At the same time, the current US Omnibus Spending Bill, which Trump
recently signed into law, contains, as reported by Dan Merica (left),
" ... a direct message to President Donald Trump: Russia needs to be punished.
...
The so-called omnibus spending bill, which the Senate passed just after
midnight early Friday morning, includes measures that bar a host of
federal agencies from engaging with Russia and sanctions the country for
a vast series of grievances.
...
One
section bars money from funding a program that Russia participates in
by stating money should "not be used for officials of the central
government of Russia."
...
Another
section punishes Russia for its 2014 annexation of Crimea by barring
funds from going to support any countries that back the annexation, and
directs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to push Americans on certain
financial boards to disallow funds from flowing to programs supportive
of Russia's annexation." (CNN : March 23, 2018) (my emphasis)
The millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck has thus grown heavier.
And it is this millstone around his neck that is now forcing Putin to agree, together with Angela Merkel, Petro Poroshenko, and Emmanuel Macron to,
" ..... examine ways to speed up progress on a peace plan for eastern Ukraine
and end a conflict that triggered sanctions against Russia.
...
The four
countries pledged to “search in the months ahead for possible solutions
to accelerate the implementation” of the Minsk [2] accords, which laid out
military and political steps to end the conflict between Ukraine’s
government and pro-Russian separatists.to speeding up" (Gregory Viscusi: Bloomberg : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis)
But can Putin disentangle himself from the "Scarlet Thread of Maidan"?
Hardly had Putin time to congratulate himself on his success in rigging the recent Russian presidential elections on 18 March that got him re-elected, when the international storm clouds against his attempt to assassinate
Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury,
England, began to gather.
"The United States and its European
allies are expelling dozens of Russian diplomats in a co-ordinated
response to the poisoning of a former Russian spy in the UK.
...
It is said to be the largest collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history. More than 20 countries have aligned with the UK, expelling more than 100 diplomats." (BBC News : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)
These expulsions of Russian diplomats comes close on the heels of Putin's latest 'maskirova' strategy in his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.
"Sources in the Russian foreign ministry say that Putin is ready to make Eastern Ukraine an area controlled by an interim international administration—as was the case in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Kosovo. However, he is not ready to make concessions on the Crimean issue. “It’s only fair,” Putin responds to all foreign partners when they ask about Crimea, Time reports" (UNIAN : 25 March 2018) (my emphasis)
To which Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (left), Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, responded that,
"I believe we have a large number of red lines, which in no case we can afford to cross," she said at a briefing, according to an UNIAN correspondent.
...
"And I will believe in the sincerity of Putin's intentions to really move toward a peaceful settlement in Donbas only if we stop seeing all these manipulations around the issue of either the deployment of peacekeepers on some absolutely surreal conditions set by the Kremlin, or the introduction of an interim administration. I believe this will also be offered by the Kremlin amid some surreal intentions and principles," she said. (UNIAN : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)
Furthermore, Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine, recently announced that,
"We are particularly committed to NATO membership. Our goal is to become a member of the Alliance in the next decade," Poroshenko said." (UKRINFORM: 28 March 2018) (my emphasis)
"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the National Guard of Ukraine will play a leading role in the Joint Forces Operation in Donbas. "Today, when we are changing the format of the operation to return control over the seized territories in accordance with the law... the role of the National Guard in the liberation of Donbas remains extremely important," Poroshenko said" (UNIAN : 26 March 2018) (my emphasis)
Putin's latest diplomatic 'maskirovka' strategy is thus dead in the water even as he announced it.
Added to which, "The European security organization responsible for monitoring the deadly
conflict between government forces and Russia-backed separatists in
eastern Ukraine will reintroduce its long-range drone program more than a
year and a half after it was dropped due to repeated shoot-downs." (Christopher Miller (right): RFERL : March 27, 2018) (my emphasis)
This re-introduction of long-range drones by the OSCE is to monitor both the continuation of ceasefire violations by Putin's soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, as well as the continuous supply of weaponry and arms from Russia into the Donbas.
What is further adding to Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki's' headaches is the discovery that the current US Omnibus Spending Bill, which Trump recently signed into law, contains, as reported by Dan Merica (left),
" ... a direct message to President Donald Trump: Russia needs to be punished.
...
The so-called omnibus spending bill, which the Senate passed just after
midnight early Friday morning, includes measures that bar a host of
federal agencies from engaging with Russia and sanctions the country for
a vast series of grievances.
...
One
section bars money from funding a program that Russia participates in
by stating money should "not be used for officials of the central
government of Russia."
...
Another
section punishes Russia for its 2014 annexation of Crimea by barring
funds from going to support any countries that back the annexation, and
directs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to push Americans on certain
financial boards to disallow funds from flowing to programs supportive
of Russia's annexation." (CNN : March 23, 2018) (my emphasis)
Trump was TOTALLY unaware that he was signing these sanctions against Putin into law.
As was to be expected, Putin won his election yesterday but not without,
".... independent election monitoring group Golos [reporting] hundreds of irregularities. They
include webcams at polling stations obstructed by balloons and other
obstacles, as this video from the Siberian city of Kemerovo posted by
the group demonstrates: March 18, 2018
But Ella Pamfilova (right), head of the Central Electoral Commission,
said there were only half as many reported violations compared to 2012,
and that none had been serious." (BBC News : 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)
The biggest election violation yesterday is the fact that this election was also held in Ukrainian Crimea.
" .... to the leadership of the United Nations in relation to the holding by the Russian Federation of presidential elections in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
...
"Ambassador Yelchenko in a letter to the UN Secretary-General, President of the Security Council and UN membership: Russian presidential elections in the occupied Crimea violate the UN Charter. The outcome of such illegal elections will be null and void," (UNIAN : 17 March, 2018) (my emphasis)
Already,
"Paris does not recognize the election of the Russian president in the illegally annexed Crimea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France says the country supports sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Radio Liberty reports." (UNIAN : 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)
Similarly,
"A number of individual countries and the European Union have already confirmed that they will not recognize the election results in the area. The relevant statement has already been made by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini. Canada, Estonia and Norway also expressed their position on non-recognition of Crimea elections." (ibid UNIAN 19 March, 2018) (my emphasis)
Together with Pamfilova's admission of widespread election violations, removing the Ukrainian Crimean results from Putin's 'victory' rather throws into strong relief the suspicion that the Kremlin results are grossly underestimating the simmering public discontent with Putin.
Putin's election win also comes in the wake of his attempted assasination of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, UK. As reported by Alice Klein,
"The poison used to target ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury was a Novichok nerve agent, UK prime minister Theresa May revealed yesterday.
...
Novichok nerve agents – also known as the “N-series” – were secretly
developed by the former Soviet Union beginning in the 1970s." (New Scientist : 13 March 201) (my emphasis)
Rather desperately, Putin is trying to pin the source of his nerve agent on other countries.
"The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Sweden are all rejecting a suggestion
by a Russian spokeswoman that the nerve agent which poisoned a former
Russian double agent and his daughter might have originated in their
countries.
...
The claim was made Saturday by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman
Maria Zakharova (left), who told Russia-24 television that the Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Britain or Sweden were likely sources of the nerve agent." (ABC News (Associated Press) : Mar 17, 2018) (my emphasis)
Added to which,
"The Trump administration confirmed Thursday it was enacting the new sanctions on Russia, including individuals indicted last month by special counsel Robert Mueller, in a sweeping new effort to punish Moscow for its attempts to interfere in the 2016 US election." (Laura Smith-Spark and Radina Gigova : CNN : March 16, 2018) (my emphasis)
Putin's headaches have not disappeared with his 'win' in the sham Russian presidential elections.
If anything, his uncertainties continue to grow apace. And this is when he is at his most dangerous.
Whilst Putin is 'boringly' waiting to win the Russian presidential race next week, win, Trump is frantically trying to untangle himself from the 'scarlet thread of Maidan that tightly binds himself and Putin together by announcing that he will be having a 'clean reset' of the White house.
This 'clean reset' may mean the removal of the White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, and National Security Adviser H.R, McMaster (right: Kelly and McMaster), but lurking beneath this 'clean reset' is
the removal of US Attorney General, Jeff Sessions (left), which will set the scene for the removal of Mueller from the investigation into the Putin-Trump 'collusion' during the 2016 US Presidential elections, 'collusion' that got Trump into the White house, and with Putin's payback being the removal of those US sanctions against himself because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.
Putin's 'boredom' regarding the upcoming Russian presidential elections is being offset, however, by the news that,
"The European Commission is moving closer to approving a 1 billion-euro
($1.22 billion) financial package to Ukraine, although officials are
awaiting further signs from Kyiv to ensure that its reform process
remains on track before the funds will be delivered.
...
He said
commissioners were likely to give final approval next week, then send
the plan to the European Council and European Parliament for their
approval." (Rikard Jozwiak (right): RFERL : February 28, 2018) (my emphasis)
And, as reported by Timothy Ash (left) this approval has now been granted.
"With the European Union’s High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini coming to Kyiv on March 11-12, a new 1 billion euro financial aid package gives her something to sign off on." (Timothy Ash : KyivPost : March 9, 2018)
Putin may be spitting nails at the approval of this financial package for Ukraine, but let us not forget that, as reported by Illia Ponomarenko, "Russia has successfully positioned its troops to launch a rapid invasion of Ukraine from the north and east, according to a March 8 report by the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based defense think tank." (KyivPost : March 9, 2018) (my emphasis)
"...compared to early 2014, Ukraine’s armed forces have improved considerably. First of all, the Ukrainian Army is now a 250,000-strong force against a modest 157,000 troops back in 2014." (UNIAN : 28 February, 2018) (my emphasis)
Added to which, they now have Javelin anti-tank missile systems at their disposal.
And now,
"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has recognized Ukraine as an aspirant country.
... Currently, four partner countries have declared their aspirations to NATO membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Ukraine," reads the statement on NATO' website." (UNIAN: 10 March, 2018) (my emphasis)
On the Trump front, things are not looking good for Putin either.
It now transpires that shortly after Trump returned from the 2013 Miss Universe competition in Moscow, Putin had a lacquered box containing a sealed letter from himself delivered to Trump. (Lawrence O'Donnell : MSNBC: 8 March, 2018: )
What is rather intriguing about this 'lacquered box with its sealed letter to Trump from Putin' is :
"Just how did Special Prosecutor Mueller find out about this?"
Interestingly, Putin's "sealed" letter in that lacquered box was delivered to Trump just after he had returned from his 2013 "Moscow Miss Universe" competition.
The Steele Dossier contains some rather 'salacious' details about Donald Trump's cavortings whilst he was in Moscow overseeing his 2013 "Miss Universe" competition.
Does that 'sealed letter' from Putin tell Donald Trump that he has all that 'dirt' on him during his 2013 stay in Moscow?
Is this why Donald Trump seems to be scared almost "witless" about saying anything negative about Putin?
And now 'Stormy Daniels', a 'lady of the night' with whom Trump had a torrid relationship, now threatens to reveal all, INCLUDING videos of the antics they got up to when together.
Is this why Trump has 'suddenly' pronounced a "clean reset" of the White House to try to deflect the eyes of the American public from what Stormy Daniels may reveal?
No doubt for many years to come people will be pondering exactly what details that 2013 'privately' delivered letter from Putin to Trump may contain.
The 'scarlet thread of Maidan' continues to bind them tightly together.