Is Putin now ready to "destroy the west" ?

One of the more insidious developments in Putin's Russia is the extent to which Putin's "Thought Police" will go to ensure that the people of Russia do not even think that his war with Ukraine is wrong or unjust.  

As reported by Politico,

"A man sentenced to two years in prison in a case launched against him after his daughter [Masha Moskalyova, 13 (left)] drew an anti-war picture at school is on the run from the authorities, a spokeswoman for a provincial court told journalists.

Earlier Tuesday, a judge in the town of Yefremov in Russia’s Tula region, south of Moscow, found Alexei Moskalyov guilty of discrediting the Russian army on social media and sentenced him to two years in a penal colony." (Politico : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis)

BBC News : 25 March 2023 : YouTube

As Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (left) reported earlier,

"The West should be prepared for more provocations by the Russian President as he grows increasingly unhinged from reality, a former NATO chief warned.

Former NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson urged Western leaders to be prepared for escalation by Vladimir Putin as he tore the Russian President's "neurotic" propaganda apart. He said Putin has increasingly become more immersed in his deluded idea of Russian history." (Express : 18 March 2023) (my emphasis)

This warning by former NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson is exemplified by the report of James Gregory, that,

"Nato has condemned Russia's "dangerous" and "irresponsible" rhetoric after Vladimir Putin's decision to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The organisation is "closely monitoring" the situation and said the move would not lead it to change its own nuclear strategy." (BBC News : 27 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And as reported by Espreso TV,

"Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) told the Russian elite at a holiday dinner in late December that the war against Ukraine will be long
...
"I am guessing you are expecting me to say something," Peskov raised his glass and added: "Things will get much harder. This will take a very, very long time." (Expreso TV : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 28 March 2023)

Notwithstanding the recent "bromance" meeting between Putin and China's President Xi Jinping, Marco Giannangeli reports that,

"Russia's “new generation of leaders” is increasingly concerned about Moscow’s alliance with China, experts are warning. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping entered into a strategic partnership just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, in which both proclaimed their friendship to be “without limits’’.
...
But as soon as the mini-conclave [between Putin and Xi Jinping] was over, Xi sent telegrams to the leaders of all five Central Asian countries, inviting them to participate in the first “China-Central Asia” summit in May.
...
The shift has not been lost on sections of Russia’s elite who have been warning since 2015 that close relations with China would come at too high a price. (Express : 25 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Crux : 25 March 2023 : YouTube

Russia Media Monitor : 3 March 2023 : YouTube

This political maneuver of Xi Jinping in inviting all five Central Asian countries to participate in the first “China-Central Asia” summit in May has somewhat overturned Putin's euphoria about his recent meeting with Xi Jinping.

Putin's blinkered and deluded idea of Russian history, that precipitated his war with Ukraine, has now caught him on the political back foot regarding the key five Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - which were part of the Soviet Union and have traditionally relied on Russia to provide security guarantees. (ibid Marco Giannangeli )

It is therefor no wonder that Russia's “new generation of leaders” is increasingly concerned about Moscow’s alliance with China, experts are warning. (ibid Marco Giannangeli )

More dangerously, however, the statement by Dmitry Peskov that, "Things will get much harder. This [war with Ukraine] will take a very, very long time.", coupled with Putin's decision to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, more than underscores the fact that Putin is growing increasingly unhinged from reality.

NATO and the US may believe that Putin will not press the 'nuclear button' but, as reported by Tom Watling,

"A top Putin aide [Nikolai Patrushev (left), ex head of Russia's FSB] has claimed that Russia is ready to “destroy the West” with nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine persists, adding that the “collapse of the European Union is not far off” (Express : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis)  

What we have here is something of a contradiction between between Dmitry Peskov and Nikolai Patrushev.

Peskov stated that, "This [war with Ukraine] will take a very, very long time" (Espreso TV) whilst Patrushev is now stating that, "Russia is ready to “destroy the West” with nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine persists". (Tom Watling)

It would seem that Putin's 'siloviki' has also become unhinged from reality and infected with Putin's deluded idea of Russian history.

And as a result Masha Moskalyova, a 13 yo girl, is forcibly removed from her father, who is then subsequently sentenced to two years in prison, and all because of his daughter's anti-war picture.

Is Putin now ready to "destroy the west" ? 

(to be continued)

The world is not being fooled by Putin and Xi Jinping.

And so, for his three day visit to Moscow, the "Bromance" between China's President Xi Jinping and Putin has caught the attention of the world audience.

As reported by Helen Davidson and Justin McCurry,

"Xi’s trip to Moscow has been viewed as a major boost for his strategic partner Putin, who is subject to an international criminal court warrant over accusations of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. The Chinese leader is expected to continue to position himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war during his two-day visit to Russia – his first state visit since the invasion." (The Guardian : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis) 

Jennifer Jett : NBC News : 20 March 2023

As Jennifer Jett also writes,

"Frustrated by what it sees as the U.S.’s determination to thwart its rise as a global superpower, China is pushing ahead with efforts to promote a new international order that has Beijing at its center.
.....
Now its leader, Xi Jinping, is in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaling Beijing’s growing embrace of its rising power on the global stage and the potential for it to further deepen conflict with the U.S. and its allies." (NBC News : 20 March 2023) (my emphasis)

This internationally public "bromance" between Putin and Xi is taking place against the backdrop of, as reported by Richard Ashmorex and Tom Watling,

"Ukraine's military has reported it carried out an audacious attack on Russian cruise missiles being transported by rail through the illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimea peninsula last night. Dramatic footage posted online (Anton Gerashchenko ) shows an explosion reportedly close to the Crimean town of Dzhankoi in the northern part of the region which has been under occupation by Russian forces since 2014." (Express : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Anton Gerashchenko : Twitter : 20 March 2023

Added to which,  as reported by Jessie Yeung (left),

"Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) is making a surprise trip to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – a day after Chinese leader Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
.....

His trip is the first time a Japanese prime minister has visited a country or region with ongoing fighting since World War II, NHK reported. It will also be the first visit to Ukraine by an Asian member of the G7 grouping and the first by a US ally in the region." (CNN News : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to somewhat 'sour' the expectations of Putin and Xi Jinping during their 'bromance' meetings today, Lili Bayer reports that,

"Turkey and Hungary announced Friday that they will sign off on Finland’s NATO membership — removing the biggest barrier to Finland’s joining the alliance but leaving Sweden’s bid languishing.

“We have decided to initiate the ratification process in our parliament,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in a press conference in Istanbul alongside his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö." (Politico : 17 March 2023) (my emphasis) (left: Sauli Niinistö and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Now recall that in my last blog entry (15 March 2023) I reported that,

"Media in Finland have reported that Prime Minister Sanna Marin is prepared to discuss providing U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Marin, who visited Kyiv on March 10, said Helsinki plans to purchase 64 modern F-35A fighters to replace 62 Hornet fighters. The Hornets could be provided to Ukraine, Marin has said, although she noted that discussions are at a preliminary stage." (RFERL : 11 March 2023) (my emphasis)   

We now also hear from James Gregory (right) that,

"More than a dozen European Union member states have agreed to supply Ukraine with at least one million artillery shells over the next year.

The plan, worth €2bn in total, was agreed in Brussels on Monday.

Ukraine had told the EU it needed 350,000 shells a month to hold back advancing Russian troops and launch a counter-offensive this year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the "game-changing decision" from the EU." (BBC News : 20 March 2023) 

This " game changing decision" by the EU is followed closely on the heels, as reported by Danielle Ong,

"The International Criminal Court (ICC) last week issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and children's rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova over alleged war crimes involving the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children.

In a news release, the ICC said both Putin and Lvova-Belova are "allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation."

Piotr Hofmanski : ICC : Youtube : 19 March 2023

Whilst Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova (left) may dismiss this 'international' arrest warrant out of hand, let us remind ourselves that they now infamously share allegations of 'war crimes' with the Nazi 'war criminals' at the Nuremberg Trials in 1946. (cf: Wikipedia) 

 

Contrary to their expectations, the world is not being fooled by Putin and Xi Jinping.   

(to be continued)

Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

On Friday 10th March, Xi Jinping was unanimously elected as head of the ruling Communist Party of China.

As reported by Oli Smith (left),

"Xi Jinping will reign over China for at least the next five years after he was handed a historic third five-year term as Chinese president. Mr Xi was unanimously elected as president for a third term on Friday in what was seen as a rubber-stamp vote at the National People's Congress (NPC). The nearly 3,000 members of the NPC - China’s largely ceremonial parliament - voted for President Xi, with no one voting against him." (Express : Friday March 10 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 11 March 2023 : YouTube

Coincidentally (?), on the same day as Xi Jinping was elected as President of China, Firstpost reports that,

"A top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces has predicted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023, according to a report.

Beijing considered the assessment to be solid enough to try to assume the role of a mediator in the standoff before it potentially ends, said Russia Today citing Japan’s Nikkei newspaper." (Firstpost : 10 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Underlining the Chinese Think Tank predicting that Putin's war with Ukraine will end before the autumn of this year, Reuters reports that,

"Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to travel to Russia to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, which would be sooner than previously expected.

Plans for a visit come as China has been offering to broker peace in Ukraine, an effort that has been met with scepticism in the West given Beijing's diplomatic support for Russia. (Reuters : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

What is even more interesting, as reported by the South China Morning Post,

"A senior White House official has praised a reported plan by Chinese President Xi Jinping to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and confirmed US President Joe Biden's "willingness" to schedule a talk with the Chinese leader.

"We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday." (Yahoo News (South China Morning Post) : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis)

WION : 14 March 2023 : YouTube

As I wrote in my previous blog entry (9 March 2023), Gideon Rachman (left) reported that,

"Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend. But now the Russian leader is in urgent need of help from China. Putin’s army is bogged down in Ukraine and running short of ammunition.

Should Xi prove that he is a friend indeed by supplying Russia with weapons? China’s decision will say a lot about how it sees the future of the world.

A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved." (Financial Times : 6 March 2023) (my emphasis)

That Putin is in need of urgent help is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova (right) has confirmed infighting in the Kremlin inner circle and that the government has lost centralized control over the Russian information space, a Washington-based think tank reports.
...
The assessment of The [Russian] Institute for the Study of War's says Zakharova acknowledged the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Moscow's message because of fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”  (John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz : USA Today : 12 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Snejana Farberov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to retrofitting hundreds of decades-old Soviet tanks to be battle-ready — as the country’s stockpile of modern tanks dwindles.

Andrey Gurulev (left), a member of the Russian parliament, released a video Saturday showing his recent visit to a repair plant outside the remote city of Chita that has been tasked with modernizing 800 obsolete T-62M tanks, reported the Russian outlet Chita.ru." (New York Post : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

 

(New York Post : 13 March 2023)

Against this backdrop of Kremlin infighting, and Putin now having to resort to the refurbishment of decades old Russian tanks,  Alan Charlish and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk report that,

"Poland could give Ukraine MiG-29 fighter jets in the coming four to six weeks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Tuesday, suggesting that Kyiv's allies were moving closer to an agreement on the next step in their military support for the country" (Reuters : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore, as reported by RFERL,

"Media in Finland have reported that Prime Minister Sanna Marin is prepared to discuss providing U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Marin, who visited Kyiv on March 10, said Helsinki plans to purchase 64 modern F-35A fighters to replace 62 Hornet fighters. The Hornets could be provided to Ukraine, Marin has said, although she noted that discussions are at a preliminary stage." (RFERL : 11 March 2023) (my emphasis)          

Could it be these critical developments in favour of Ukraine that has forced a top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces to predict that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023? 

Could it also be these developments that have made Putin lash out, as reported by Maighna Nanu, that,

"Ben Wallace, the British Defence Secretary, has urged Moscow to respect international airspace, after the United States said that Russia had caused one of its drones to crash into the Black Sea on Tuesday." ? (MSN (The Telegraph) : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 15 March 2023 : YouYube

As also reported by Helen Sullivan (left),

"Secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, has said that the drone incident shows that Russia is willing to expand its war.

He posted to social media to say “The incident with the American MQ-9 Reaper UAV, provoked by Russia in the Black Sea, is Putin’s signal of readiness to expand the conflict zone with the involvement of other parties.” (The Guardian : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

(to be continued)

"Has Putin now become Xi Jinping's poodle"

Putin's latest onslaught against the people of Ukraine has all the hallmarks of a man desperate to cling onto power.

As reported by Hanna Arhirova and Elena Becatoros,

"Russia unleashed a missile barrage targeting energy infrastructure across Ukraine early Thursday, hitting residential buildings and killing at least five people in the largest such attack in three weeks, officials said." (AP News : 9 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Significantly, as reported earlier by Aoife Walsh,

"The head of Russia's Wagner private army says it is not getting the ammunition it needs from Moscow, as it seeks to gain control of Bakhmut.
...
But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (right) says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal". (BBC News : 7 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as also reported earlier,

• Russia's "total collapse" is not beyond realms of possibility, a military expert has claimed, as Ukraine continues to fight valiantly in the east of the country. Colonel Richard Kemp, a former infantry commander, has explained how taking back the Crimean Peninsula could be key to inflicting defeat on the Russians. (Charlie Bradley : Express : 2 March 2023) (my emphasis)
• The Russian military has lost many of its best-trained and most-skilled soldiers in Ukraine, where casualties continue to mount after more than a year of fighting, and it is having a crippling effect on the combat power of Moscow's forces.
  
  Multiple units long considered to be "elite" forces within the Russian military have suffered serious losses during the conflict as these forces are continually recommitted to the fight, often to carry out tasks inconsistent with their purpose." (Jake Epstein  : Business Insider : 3 March 2023) (my emphasis)
• Even more significantly, as reported by  Charlie Bradley and Christopher Sharp,
  
  "Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to launch a new attack on the Ukrainian town of Vugledar after suffering heavy losses in a tank battle. It has been claimed that Russia lost around 130 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in a recent offensive to take the town, located in the Donetsk oblast." (8 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And on the International Front, Putin isn't faring much better.

As reported by Brendan Cole (left),

"A clip of veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sparking laughter after claiming Ukraine was to blame for Vladimir Putin's invasion has gone viral.
...

"The war which we are trying to stop and which was launched against
us," Lavrov said, before laughter rang out among the audience. Lavrov [that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister] paused briefly and look flustered as he tried to continue. He finished the sentence that it "influenced Russian policy" taking three attempts to say the word "influence" amid the cackles and an audience member shouting "come on." " (Newsweek :4 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Becky Anderson CNN : 4 March 2023 : YouTube

Putin's latest "doodlebug" onslaught against Ukraine's cities may also be due to the fact that, as reported by Josh Smith and Joyce Lee,

"South Korea's government approved export licenses for Poland last year to provide Ukraine with Krab howitzers, which are built with South Korean components, a defence acquisition official in Seoul told Reuters on Wednesday.

The comments are the first confirmation that South Korea officially acquiesced to at least indirectly providing weapons components to Ukraine for its war against Russia." (MSN (Reuters) : 8 March 2023 (my emphasis)

No doubt Chinese President Xi Jinping is carefully studying this development, with a keen eye on "copying Putin's Ukraine invasion" by invading Taiwan.

As reported by Gideon Rachman (left),

"Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend. But now the Russian leader is in urgent need of help from China. Putin’s army is bogged down in Ukraine and running short of ammunition.

Should Xi prove that he is a friend indeed by supplying Russia with weapons? China’s decision will say a lot about how it sees the future of the world.

A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved." (Financial Times : 6 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Which rather raises the question, "Has Putin now become Xi Jinping's poodle"

(to be continued)

Will Xi Jinping throw Putin under the political bus?

The internationally announced "peace plan" of Xi Jinping to end Putin's war with Ukraine shares much in common with the Minsk "peace plans" of Angela Merkel, a "peace plan" that had Putin's fingerprints all over it.

The Minsk I and Minsk II "peace plans" pushed by Merkel onto Ukraine had, as its backdrop, the agenda of Merkel (and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder) for the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have not only supplied Germany with cheap gas but, more importantly, made Germany the very hub of Putin's gas exports into the EU.

In like fashion, Emperor Xi Jinping is more than happy to suck cheap gas imports from Putin to offset Russia's loss of revenue from the EU due to the near drying up of EU imports of gas from Russia.

As Hayes Brown reported,

"As Russia flounders under the weight of Western sanctions and stalled offensive, China will “do enough to sustain a friendly regime in the Kremlin — and advance Chinese national interests — by purchasing Russian natural resources at knockdown prices, expanding the market for Chinese technology, promoting Chinese technological standards, and making the renminbi the default regional currency of northern Eurasia,” [Alexander] Gabuev [Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace] wrote. (MSNBC : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

But let us examine Emperor Xi Jinping's "peace plan".

As reported by  Ukrainska Pravda

"China has proposed its so-called "peace plan", publishing "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The published document has 12 points:

•  Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
•  Abandoning the Cold War mentality
•  Ceasing hostilities
  
•  Resuming peace talks
•  Resolving the humanitarian crisis
•  Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs)
•  Keeping nuclear power plants safe
•  Reducing strategic risks
•  Facilitating grain exports
•  Stopping unilateral sanctions
  
•  Keeping industrial and supply chains stable
•  Promoting post-conflict reconstruction (Yahoo News (Ukrainska Pravda) : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)
  

 In the words of US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, .

"China can't have it BOTH ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. It can't be putting forward 'peace proposals', on the one hand,  while actually feeding the flames of what Russia started ..."(US Today : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The 'political' and 'economic' upper hand that Xi Jinping now has over Putin is due, in no part, to the fact that,

"Vladimir Putin is 'terribly scared' as he marks the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine, says an ex-Russian secret services general.

The Russian dictator has badly misread the West's resolve to stand up to him, and did not realise his army's incompetence, according to the former chief of the Moscow division of the FSB.

'Putin perfectly understands the mood of people who have lost everything because of him,' said retired General Yevgeny Savostyanov. 'He understands this anger can find a way out, so he keeps them away." (Will Stewart and Chris Jewers : Mail Online : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's growing fears, PBS News (Associated Press) report that,

"The Biden administration on Tuesday pledged to support the independence of the five Central Asian nations, in a not-so-subtle warning to the former Soviet states that Russia’s value as a partner has been badly compromised by its year-old war against Ukraine." (PBS News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

C5+1 group, made up of the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And now, we also have Israel pivoting towards supplying Ukraine with defensive arms.

As reported by  Tovah Lazaroff,

"Netanyahu returned to power in late December amid expectations that he would pivot Israel in the direction of Russia. He has instead shored up his country’s backing of Kyiv under pressure from Israel’s most significant ally, the U.S. Now he has to weigh alienating Putin by providing defensive arms to Ukraine, a move he has yet to agree to and which Russia has already made it clear would be a red line.
...
Senior Israeli lawmakers have already called on Netanyahu to provide Ukraine with anti-drone and anti-missile systems.
...
They promised Zelenskyy to do everything possible to help ensure Israel sends defensive weapons." (NBC News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The Kremlin vultures are now beginning to swoop in on Putin.

As reported by David Brennan

"President Vladimir Putin's top spokesperson has urged Russians to be "patient" on questions about the dictator's future, as the war in Ukraine wears on with no end in sight and presidential elections in both Russia and Ukraine looming in 2024.

Dmitry Peskov told the Russian Izvestia newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that the elections scheduled for next year will be held, but Putin isn't yet ready to announce whether he will take part, as is widely expected." (Newsweek : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Relying on Chinese President Xi Jinping to bail him out from his current precarious position is all that Putin now has left to ensure his political survival.

Xi Jinping now has to decide whether it is in China's long term interests to throw Putin under the bus.

(to be continued)