The fervent wish of Putin that the 'motly' crew of diverse international political leaders that attended his Kazan BRICS summit would, almost unconditionally, support his war with Ukraine, rather disappointed him.
It is no wonder because :-
[President] Xi [of China] noted that China and Brazil have put forward a peace plan for Ukraine and sought to rally broader international support for it. Ukraine has rejected the proposal. (AP on Manila Bulletin: 25 October 2024) (my emphasis)
While Western allies want New Delhi to be more active in persuading Moscow to end the fighting in Ukraine, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has avoided condemning Russia while emphasizing a peaceful settlement. (ibid: AP on Manila Bulletin)
Addressing the BRICS Plus session, Guterres [UN General Secretary] urged an immediate end to the fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan. “We need peace in Ukraine, a just peace in line with the U.N. Charter, international law and General Assembly resolutions,” he said. (ibid: AP on Manila Bulletin)
Russian President Vladimir Putin faced direct calls to end the Ukraine conflict from some of his closest and most important partners on Wednesday as world leaders gathered in Russia for the second day of the largest diplomatic forum held by the country since it began its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. (Yahoo News: 23 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"The war in Ukraine was mentioned only once in the 43-page document[the Kazan Declaration, a 134-point summary of their agreements], and though Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the event, its wording is a far cry from the Kremlin's preferred rhetoric.
That single paragraph contained none of Russia's usual talking points, insteadurging all parties to act in accordance with United Nations standards — a more neutral statement often used by nations such as China." (Business Insider on Yahoo News: 24 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"On Wednesday, the White House said at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers had arrived in eastern Russia this month and while it remains unclear what they will do, it is a “highly concerning probability” that they will join the fight against Ukraine. ... .. Seoul is not taking this lightly.
On Monday, its Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and urged an “immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops.”(CNN World: 24 October 2024) (my emphasis)
The Kazan Declaration, that 134-point summary of the recent BRICS agreements,ensures that Putin cannot call upon ANY BRICS members to supply him with troops to replace Russian troops killed in the 'Russian meatgrinder' in Ukraine.
Is is any wonder thatBRICS members are extremeley wary of Putin trying to 'rope' them into his war with Ukraine?
North Korean troops in Ukraine have dangerously escalated Putin's war with Ukraine, and has led South Korea to,
"South Korea's president [Yoon Suk Yeol](left: with Zelensky) on Thursday raised the possibility of supplying Ukraine with weapons while stressing that his government "won't sit idle" as North Korea allegedly sends troops to support Russia's aggression toward its neighbor." (Mainichi: 25 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Thisreplacing of fallen Russian soldiers with North Korean troops in his 'meatgrinder' in Ukraine is a sign of desperate panic by Putin that he is losing this war.
Even trying to put on a brave face during questioning at the end of the BRICS summit simply did not work.
Rehashing his 'threadbare' mantra about NATO as a cause of his war with Ukraine simply did not 'butter any parsnips' with the assembled reporters.
The world is holding its political breath as Kim Jon Un's troops ready themselves to march, hand-in-hand, with Putin's army in Ukraine, whilst the Middle East brings us even closer to a cataclysmic showdown between Israel and Iran.
Most of all, the critical US presidential election is fifteen days away, which result will either sway the world into the direction of WW3 or into the direction of the concluding stages of Putin's war with Ukraine, as well as a critical stalling of Israel's impending war with Iran.
"Military ties between North Korea and Russia increase as North Korea sends 3,000 soldiers to help Russia against Ukraine. ... Volodymyr Zelensky grows concerns as he learns on a trip to Brussels that North Korean specialists are already on the ground in parts of Ukraine's occupied territories." (LBC: 17 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Cowering in his bunker, Putin is now having to go cap-in-hand to Kim Jon Un to bolster his fast diminishing forces in Ukraine as the rumblings of the Russian people begin to reach a crescendo, especiallly in Moscow and St Petersburg,AGAINST any new drafting of young Russian men into Putin's 'meatrinder' in Ukraine.
On the economic front, as the Bank of Russia itself admits,
"At the same time, demand in the economy and in particular consumer demand remained high overall – despite a certain decline in August. The entirety of these factors is still behind high inflationary pressures notwithstanding of the recent rise in interest rates, a slower expansion in retail lending and in the broader economy.
Going forward, the current tight monetary policy is expected to ease labour shortages – a trend that seems to be emerging as employers show less appetite for hiring, explained by more moderate expectations for demand for their products and for investment. This is expected to combine with a consistently high saving ratio to cool down consumer demand and thereby movements in consumer prices (i.e. INFLATION)." (Bank Of Russia: No. 7: October 2024) (my emphasis)
(full video: Joe Blogs: Russian Industry Collapsing: 18 October 2024: YouTube)
Adding to Putin's panicked pacing around in his bunker,
"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased the amount of credit funds allocated to Ukraine in 2025 by nearly $880 million, according to the IMF memorandum. ... The increase in financing for 2025 will come from credit funds that were initially intended for disbursement in 2026 and 2027." (Bohdan Babaiev (right): RBC Ukraine on Microsoft Start: 19 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"Canada announced the details of a $64.8 million military aid package to Ukraine Friday as National Defence Minister Bill Blair attended a NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels." (David Cummings: CTV News (Canada): 18 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"The Danish government is donating 2.4 billion kroner ($350 million) to Ukraine to help bolster the country’s air defense systems and buy new weapons.
The donation is part of Denmark’s 64.8 billion kroner fund to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia and is aimed at supporting the Ukrainian military’s urgent needs and strengthen its longer-term defense capabilities, the Danish Minister of Defense, Troels Lund Poulsen, said in a press release." (Sara Sjolin (right): BNN Bloomberg: 18 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Coupled to Putin's economic and 'meatgrinder' recruiting woes, and the west continuing to support Ukraine financially, Will Stewart (left) and Oli Smith(right) report that,
"One of Russia's largest manufacturers of industrial explosives (the Sverdlov Plant in Dzerzhinsk) blew up in flames overnight after a swarm of Ukrainian drones. ... The state-owned Sverdlov Plant also manufactures aviation and artillery shells, aerial bombs, components for cumulative anti-tank guided missiles, and warheads for air defence systems." (Express : 20 October 2024) (my emphasis) Furthermore,
"A day earlier a key Russian microelectronics plant (the vast Kremniy El complex in Bryansk region)caught fire after a jet-powered kamikaze drone strike by Ukraine. ... One of the biggest electronics bases in Russia with 1,700-plus workers, it also makes key hi-tech parts for multiple other lethal weapons." (ibid Will Stewart and Oli Smith)
Is it therefore any wonder that Putin is fast becoming the 'poodle' of Kim Jon Un?
As Autumn wanes, and Winter begins to blow its cold chill over the horizon, Putin shivers in his bunker as news that,
"Russia Can't Hide the Fact Its Air Force Is Taking Heavy Losses in Ukraine. Russia lost another Su-34 combat aircraft over Ukraine on Saturday, reportedly shot down by an American-made F-16, marking the first air-to-air kill by Ukrainian-operated F-16s. The Su-34, a crucial asset for Russian air operations, has suffered significant losses during the conflict, with up to a quarter of Russia's pre-war fleet destroyed." (Peter Suciu (left): The National Interest: 13 October 2024). (my emphasis)
Gareth Jennings reports that, "Dassault Mirage 2000 combat aircraft promised by France will arrive in Ukraine in early 2025, it was announced on 8 October..French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu made the disclosure from his official X (formerly Twitter) account, providing a timeline some five months after French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed the transfer in June.". (Janes: 13 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Abdujalil Abdurasulov reports that, "[What] happened near the city of Kostyantynivka was unprecedented. The lower trail split in two (cf. image on right), external and a new object quickly accelerated towards the other vapour trail until they crossed and a bright orange flash lit up the sky.The stealth drone’s failure is no doubt a big blow for Russia’s military.... It was due to go into production this year but clearly the unmanned aircraft is not ready... Four protype S-70s are thought to have been built and it is possible the one blown out of the sky over Ukraine was the most advanced of the four. (BBC News: 12 October 2024) (my emphasis)
The World Bank's executive board on Thursday approved the creation of a financial intermediary fund (FIF) to support Ukraine, with contributions expected from the United States, Canada and Japan, three sources familiar with the decision said. The only objection to the vote came from Russia, two of the sources familiar with the vote said. (Andrea Shalal (left): Reuters: 10 October 2024) (my emphasis)
And whilst the World Bank approves a financial intermediary fund for Ukraine, Kris Boratyn reports that,
"Vladimir Putin is facing a potential economic crisis that could see Russia plunge into a £30 billion blackhole, according to experts.
Recent data suggests that the National Wealth Fund, which supports the economy during periods of financial shortfall, could be depleted as soon as next year.
Economists at Fink Money warn that this situation could push Russia’s economy into a deep recession." (Express: 7 October 2024) (my emphasis)
This is also reflected in the deep crisis within, and possible collapse of, the Russian Military Weapons industry, as The Military Show reports below.
It is no wonder that fearful of how the Russian people would respond to a renewed call-up for Russians to join the army and fight in Ukraine, Putin is now openly welcoming North Korean soldiers into Luhansk.
"North Korean soldiers have probably been killed fighting for the Kremlin on the front lines in Ukraine, South Korea has said. .... Speculation that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator, would send his soldiers to fight in Ukraine for Russia has been rife but this would be the first known evidence of them being stationed on or near the front line." (The Telegraph on Microsoft Start: 10 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Coming to rely on North Korean soldiers simply indicates that the near total fear of failing in Ukraine has beset a shivering Putin in his bunker.
In 1964, in the lead up to the British election, Harold Wilson (left) is supposed to have coined the famous phrase, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’
The current diplomatic actions and political statements from international politicians, as Putin fails to turn Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia, now changes Harold Wilson's famous phrase into, "An hour is a long time in politics".
From Putin's ongoing and dangerous war in Ukraine, to the dangerous escalation of the war in the Middle East, Putin's redrawing of his lines for the use of Russia's nuclear capability in Ukraine is leading the world to face global armageddon.
As reported by Vladimir Soldatkin (left) and Guy Faulconbridge (right), "President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, and that Moscow would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack.
The decision to change Russia's official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin's answer to deliberations in the United States and Britain about whether or not to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia." (Reuters: 25 September 2024) (my emphasis)
Like a 'cat on a hot tin roof ', Brazilian, Chinese, and Swiss international politicians are now 'frantically' scrambling around calling for 'peace' by trying to appease Putin by embracing his terms for a ceasefire in his war with Ukraine.
And against the background of all this frantic 'Putin peace terms' diplomacy, AlJazeera reports that,
"Biden announced [a] “surge in security assistance” for Ukraine on Thursday, saying that the aid would be provided in two tranches of $5.5bn and $2.4bn, the package including the provision of Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) munitions to “enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities”. (Aljazeera: 26 September 2024) (my emphasis)
whilst Zelensky urges the world at the UN to accept his peace formula.
"We have to withdraw the Russian occupiers, which will bring an end to hostilities in Ukraine ....... and uphold the UN Charter"(ibid AlJazeera)
Putin and his 'siloviki' have painted themselves into a 'nuclear' corner whilst continuosly, and indiscriminately, bombing Ukrainian civilians and Ukraine's infrastructure.
" Russia attacked a hospital in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine early on Saturday, killing 10 people and injuring at least 22 others, Ukrainian officials said.
Danielle Bell, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said "loitering munitions" - or suicide drones - hit the Saint Panteleimon Clinical Hospital in two attacks 45 minutes apart.
"Most of the fatalities occurred during the second strike, which hit as first responders arrived at the site and patients attempted to evacuate," she said." (Reuters: 28 September 2024) (my emphasis)
This sheer inhumanity of Putin will not prevent the Russian war economy from imploding.
"Russia's war machine could soon grind to a halt due to the country's crumbling economy. Vladimir Putin has poured hundreds of billions from the federal budget into the country's defence and security as Russia continues to wage a brutal war in Ukraine.
However, his plans to drag the war on could be scuppered after Russia's crude oil income dramatically dropped this month. Income from crude oil shipments, which provided 16 percent of Russia's GDP last year, has dropped to its lowest level in eight months." (Express: 25 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"The Russian government wants to earmark 32.5% of its spending for defense in 2025, a record amount and up from a reported 28.3% this year, as Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine. ... Russian President Vladimir Putin is also looking at how to sustain his war effort as military spending has placed a huge strain on the Russian economy." (AP on CNN: 30 September 2024) (my emphasis)
CNN goes on to report that,
"Meanwhile, on Monday Putin signed a call-up order for 133,000 conscripts in the autumn military draft, which is a routine number for seasonal conscription campaigns.
In September, he ordered the military to increase the number of troops by 180,000 to a total of 1.5 million. Overall military personnel would be about 2.4 million." (ibid CNN)
[Note that : Putin's nuclear warning came as Ukraine presses the United States to provide long-range weapons that would allow it to strike deep within Russia.] (cf Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge above)
It should be borne in mind that Putin's conscipts being called up are "not allowed to join Russian forces in Ukraine", but will be eligible for confronting Ukraines' forces in Russia's Kursk.
"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) expressed support for Ukraine’s request for long-range Taurus cruise missiles, putting herself at odds with Chancellor Olaf Scholz who has ruled out sending the weapons over fears it could trigger direct conflict with Russia. ... Baerbock blamed Russia’s war on Ukraine in part for Germany’s current budget constraints, which have forced the government to broadly rein in outlays while maintaining its pledge to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product on the military." (Bloomberg on Yahoo News: 30 Sept 2024) (my emphasis)
All this merely serves to underscore that a panicked Putin and his 'siloviki' must now choose between 'peace' and 'nuclear armageddon'.
"He [Putin] plans to increase defence spending by 25 percent next year, pushing the total defence budget to a staggering 13.5 trillion rubles (£109bn).
Draft budget documents released on Monday on the parliament’s website detailed these plans, revealing that spending on defence and security will make up 40 percent of Russia's total budget.
Russian pensioner Irina, 70, expressed her "outrage" to AFP at the news, calling the increased spending a "crime" and telling the outlet that "we need to end this war".
Another pensioner quoted by the outlet called the budget hike a "shame and a disgrace", as Russia cannot afford to give money to help its poor children so should not be spending such large amounts on prolonging the war." (Express: 2 October 2024) (my emphasis)
How much longer Putin, with his full control over Russia's TV propaganda machine, can prevent the people of Russia from rising up against him now remains to be seen.
"Vladimir Putin is reportedly feeling the strain of economic pressures that resemble those that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. ... Draft budget documents also showed Moscow plans to boost national defence spending by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3 percent of GDP - the highest level since the Cold War.
In contrast, the Russian government is cutting back on social services, including pensions by around 15 percent.
"So Putin knows his economy is under pressure,” a Western official said, adding this mirrors the economic strain that contributed to the Soviet Union’s downfall." (Express: 4 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Putin now has nowhere behind which he could 'politically' hide.
The last week has seen Ukraine's "drone army" attack and destroy arms depots critical for Putin's continued bombardment of Ukraine's civilian population and critical winter infrastructure.
"Russia’s ability to wage war - and repel occupying Ukrainian troops in Kursk - has almost certainly been badly compromised by a drone attack on an strategically crucial ammunition depot, a UK Ministry of Defence bulletin has claimed. ... The MoD said: "This depot is a storage site of the 107th Arsenal of the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate and almost certainly housed munitions varying calibres for frontline use, as well as missiles and glide bombs used by nearby airfields.
"Ammunition procured from North Korea was also reportedly stored here."
... Renovated in 2018, it is one of Russia's largest strategic ammunition depots directly supporting its operation in Ukraine, storing more than 30,000 tonnes of ordnance, the MoD statement continued.
"The explosion at Toropets was recorded at 2.7 on the Richter scale, equivalent to a mild earthquake, with fires covering a 6km-wide area. " (Express: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)
Max Hunder (left) and Tom Balmforth(right) also report that, "Ukraine said on Saturday it had hit two Russian munition depots overnight, in attacks that illustrated its growing capability to strike targets deep inside Russia. Russian officials acknowledged the Ukrainian attack on one of the depots in southern Krasnodar region, saying it was carried out with drones. They introduced local emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the assault.
A statement by Ukraine's military general staff said the munitions depots were at Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar region and Oktyabrsky in the western region of Tver." (Reuters: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)
As was to be expected, in retaliation, Putin's "forever" use of the nuclear option was once again paraded on the international political scene.
That Soviet dyed-in the wool Russian foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), announced after the destruction of Putin's arm depots that (cf video below),
"Russia is ready to act if long-range missiles strike Russian territory.
I assure you that we have weapons that will have serious consequences for the patrons of the Ukraine regime." ....
I'm convinced that in such situations, those making decisions understand what we are talking about. No one wants a nuclear war" (video below) (cf also: Times of India: 20 Septembe 2024)
"Satellite imagery has appeared to show a massive crater at a Russian missile test centre after a nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat exploded in a humiliating blow for President Vladimir Putin.
The weapon - known in the West as Satan-2 - is regarded by the Kremlin as a powerful tool within its arsenal. However, the latest incident is believed to be the fourth successive failure, calling its reliability into question." (Express: 22 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"Iran has supplied Russia with close-range ballistic missiles but withheld mobile launchers, according to U.S. and European officials. The delivery, which Washington accuses Tehran of sending for use against Ukraine, raises questions about when the missiles will become operational." (Fingerlakes 1: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"The sleeping giant of public opinion could become the biggest threat yet to Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine as a shock new poll reveals half of Russians want their soldiers home.
The results of the survey come after a difficult few weeks for Putin who has been humiliated by Ukrainian forces staging a series of daring attacks on targets inside Russia, including an audacious counter-offensive into the Kursk region last month. ... The US news site says a new poll conducted with ExtremeScan, which quizzed 800 people between September 10 and 17, found 49 percent of Russians supported withdrawing soldiers from Ukraine and starting peace talks." (Express: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)
It should therefore come as no surprise that,
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) said on Saturday that the end of the more than 2-1/2-year-old war with Russia depended on the "resolve" of Kyiv's Western allies in providing needed weaponry and permission to use it.
Zelenskiy, speaking in his nightly video address, thanked his military for a new strike on an arsenal in Russia, though he did not identify the location.
He also said his meetings next week in the United States were "crucial" to ensuring that Ukraine had the defense capabilities it needed. (Ron Popeski and Oleksander Kozhukhar: Reuters: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)
One can begin to imagine the panic of 'cold sweats' of defeat that Putin is now experiencing in his bunker.
No amount of lists of countries “showing destructive behavior contrary to Russian spiritual and moral values” that he is now waving about will relieve him from the sheer panic of defeat that he is now experiencing.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin made a list of countries “showing destructive behavior contrary to Russian spiritual and moral values,” with Greece and Cyprus among them.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved the publication of Kremlin’s list of the 47 countries. The list does not include European Union members Hungary and Slovakia and NATO member Turkey, according to TASS Russian news agency." (Greek Reporter: 22 September 2024) (my emphasis)
Hindustan Times on Greek Reporter: 22 September 2024
Putin is now experiencing the sheer panic of defeat.
"The Pentagon says it’s confirmed that Iran has given “a number of close-range ballistic missiles to Russia.” While Washington isn’t sure exactly how many rockets are being handed over to Moscow, the U.S. Defense Department assesses that Russia could begin putting them to use within a few weeks, “leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians.”(Meduza: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"The delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia has changed the debate about Ukraine using Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has told the BBC on a visit to Kyiv. ... In an interview with the BBC, Lammy said Iran providing Russia with ballistic missiles "clearly changes the debate" as they would allow Moscow's forces "to have further penetration into Ukraine". (BBC News: 11 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"United States president Joe Biden appears to be on the verge of clearing the way for Ukraine to launch long-range western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn’t use arms provided by the US, European officials say. ... Britain has already signalled to the US that it is eager to let Ukraine use its “Storm Shadow” long-range missiles to strike at Russian military targets far from the Ukrainian border. But it wants explicit permission from Mr Biden in order to demonstrate a co-ordinated strategy with the United States and France, which makes a similar missile." (Irish Times: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)
As Sir Keith Starmer (left)states,
"Russia started the conflict in Ukraine and can end it "straight away”, Sir Keir Starmer has said.
“Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away,” he said.
He
later added: “To reiterate, it was Russia who started this in the first
place. They caused the conflict, they’re the ones who are acting
unlawfully.” (Chris Mason and Isabella Allen: BBC News: 12 September 2024) (my emphasis)
But with the threat of US and UK long-range missiles being aimed at Russia's war infrastructure, Putin once again is threatening to unleash war against NATO members who may greenlight their use of long-range missiles to destroy Putins' war infrastructure.
The 'political emptiness' of Putin's threats of war with NATO members is best desribed by LT Col Stuart Crawford(left) as,
"Putin and the Russian people will now be brought ever closer to the front line of their illegal, unprovoked, and aggressive war in Ukraine. Typically, he has reacted to the news with his usual mix of threats and bluster, suggesting that Moscow would regard western missiles being used against it as a serious escalation of the war. ... While it would be both brave and foolhardy to dismiss such threats completely out of hand, it is most unlikely that Putin would follow through, or be allowed to follow through by his political advisers and rivals in the Kremlin, with such threats.
The reason? Quite simply it would lead to the demise of both him and the Russian regime. NATO is so many times more powerful both militarily and economically than Russia that there could be only one winner. So it won’t happen." (Express: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)
"But frankly, president Putin shown here knows that if the West were directly engaged .... if NATO is directly engaged .... Russia would be stopped in its tracks" (Sky News: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis) (cf also: Mark Moore: International Busness Times: 13 Sept 2024)
Putin has painted himself into an even tighter 'political corner' with his threat of war with NATO.
The 'siloviki' in the Kremlin no doubt realise this.
What will be the reaction of the Russian people when they are told that they are at war with NATO?
Will they 'man the barricades' to protect the motherland, with the threat of near total 'nuclear' annihilation hanging like a sword of Damocles over their head if Putin fires even one of his 'nuclear' warheads against a NATO country?