Neither Putin nor Trump can stop the unravelling of their political "bromance"

On Monday 24 April Joe Sheppard reported that,

"An American paramedic working with a security watchdog in eastern Ukraine has been killed after the vehicle he was in drove over a mine.

The US citizen, who has not been named, was part of a patrol involved in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring mission in the country.

Two other monitors, a German and a Czech, were injured in the blast, near Luhansk. It has led US officials to call for a 'full, transparent investigation'." (Mail Online : 24 April, 2017) (my emphasis)

Sergei Ryabkov, Lavrov's second-in-command at Putin's Foreign Ministry,

" ...said the incident would be discussed at a meeting in Moscow on Tuesday between Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the OSCE, and Sergei Lavrov (left), the Russian foreign minister.
.......
The Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday the circumstances pointed to likely provocation aimed at undermining the peace process. " (ibid Joe Sheppard) (my emphasis)

Is Lavrov implying that this OSCE patrol deliberately drove over over a mine so that they could be killed, thus undermining the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols?

 And what was US Secretay of State, Rex Tillerson's, response?

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson accepted condolences from Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and said Moscow's actions in eastern Ukraine "remain an obstacle" to improved relations between the US and the Kremlin." (Sky News : Monday 24 April 2017) (my emphasis)

 In other words, Tillerson's prime concern seems to be re-invigorating the 'bromance' between Trump and Putin whilst paying lip-service to the full implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, as expressed by US State Department spokesman Mark Toner.

'This tragic incident makes clear the need for all sides - and particularly the Russian-led separatist forces - to implement their commitments under the Minsk agreements immediately,' Toner said." (ibid Joe Sheppard)

Now recall that, as reported by Nick Wadhams and John Follain,

" .. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson left European diplomats befuddled at a gathering in Italy.

“Why should U.S. taxpayers be interested in Ukraine?” Tillerson asked foreign ministers discussing Russia’s intervention there at a Group of Seven gathering Tuesday in Lucca, Italy." (Bloomberg Politics : 11 April 2017) (my emphasis)

Anne Applebaum (below right) amongst many others, responded to Tillerson's question by stating that,

"Tillerson’s question, rhetorical or otherwise, therefore deserves a response. For the answer is yes: U.S. taxpayers should be interested in Ukraine. But not necessarily for reasons that would make sense to an oil company’s CEO.

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 were an open attack on the principle of border security in Europe
• Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an aggressive, emboldened Russia increasingly threatens European security and prosperity, as well as Europe’s alliance with the United States. Russia supports anti-American, anti-NATO and indeed anti-democratic political candidates all across the continent
• Over the long term, these policies threaten U.S. business interests and U.S. political interests all across the continent and around the world. (Washington POst : 14 April, 2017) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Richard Haass)

Recall that in my blog entry (Thursday 20 April, 2017) I wrote that,

"The indelible links between the Kremlin and Trump and his associates, both during and after the US presidential elections, continues to emerge into the light of day.

We are therefore left with two possible intriguing questions.

• Is Donald Trump's recent bombing in Syria, and his current dangerous stand-off with North Korea's Kim Jong-un, his way of attempting to deflect the eyes of the American people away from the active involvement of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' in helping him gain the White House?

• And is the current attempt by Exxon Mobil to obtain  a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft a hint that Putin is now demanding 'payback' for getting Trump into the White House?"

It would now seem that Trump, his White House associates, Senate Republicans, and Congressional Republicans, are now trying to stymie the Senate and House Intelligence investigations into how Putin helped him gain the US presidency.

 24 April, 2017

More recently (25 April, 2017),

This stymieing by Republicans of the Senate and House Intelligence investigations into how Putin helped Donald Trump gain the US presidency dovetails with Tillerson's prime concern that the death of an American OSCE paramedic in the Donbas (ibid Joe Sheppard) is merely "an obstacle" to improved relations between the US and the Kremlin ".

That Tillerson is being guided by both Donald Trump and Putin to "improve relations between the US and Russia" is exemplified by both the fact that he regards the death of an American OSCE paramedic in the Donbas as merely an obstacle to be overcome, as well as by the fact that, as Elena Holodny and Natasha Bertrand (left) have recently informed us,

"Exxon Mobil Corp. applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft, according to the Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon and Bradley Olson." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 19, 2017) (my emphasis)".

But, as Anne Applebaum states,

"U.S. taxpayers should be interested in Ukraine. But not necessarily for reasons that would make sense to an oil company’s CEO."

And the interest of US taxpayers in the war between Putin and Ukraine in the Donbas, and Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, will continue to increase as the political pressures to completely unravel just how Putin helped Trump gain the White House continues to build up.

(to be continued)

Is Putin now demanding 'payback' for getting Trump into the White House?

In yesterday's blog I wrote that,

"Now, however, Trump is staring into the abyss of precipitating World War III.

But in so doing Trump has, unwittingly, deflected the gaze of the world from the fact that Putin propelled him into the White House in the hope that the EU-US sanctions against him, precipitated by his annexation of Crimea and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, will be lifted." (blog entry : 18th April, 2017)

Today, Elena Holodny and Natasha Bertrand (left) inform us that,

"Exxon Mobil Corp. applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft, according to the Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon and Bradley Olson." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 19, 2017) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that,

"... US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is the former CEO of Exxon. He has close personal ties with Russia, has struck several major deals with Rosneft in the past, and received the Order of Friendship award from President Vladimir Putin in 2013." (ibid Holodny and Betrand) (my emphasis)

At the end of Rachel Maddow's report on Eric Prince acting as a Trump envoy in Russian meetings, she also describes the links between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil, Russia's 'Rosneft' oil company, Putin, and the instigation of US sanctions by Obama against Putin because  of Putin's annexation on Ukrainian Crimea and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas. (MSNBC : 19 April, 2017)

Obama's sanctions against Putin put paid to a possible $500 billion investment in oil exploration in the Kara Sea AND in the Black Sea bordering Crimea.

It is therefore no co-incidence that yesterday,

"Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday called for Western sanctions on Russia to be maintained in order to keep the Kremlin in line and to ensure the success of Ukraine's own economic reform program.

"We need firm support for Ukraine reform... To proceed, sanctions should stay firm on Russia - this is the only mechanism to keep Russia at the negotiating table," Poroshenko told a conference in London." (Reuters : 19th April, 2017) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko also met with UK Prime Minister Teresa May who,

" .... vowed to support Ukraine in the face of the “threat” from Moscow as she welcomes Petro Poroshenko to Downing Street.

She told the Ukrainian president the UK stood “ready to support” his country.

Mrs May said she would continue to press for sanctions to remain in place against Russia until the Minsk agreement on a political settlement was fully implemented." (Mail Online (Press Association): 19 April 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst Exxon Mobil seeks a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft, and the UK Prime Minister continues to press for sanctions to remain in place against Russia until the Minsk agreement on a political settlement was fully implemented, it is now coming to light that Eric Prince, the brother of the current Trump-appointed Secretary for Education, Betsy DeVos, acted as a Trump envoy in Russian meetings.

As reported by Keri Geiger and Michael Riley,

"In the very public, post-election parade of dignitaries, confidantes and job-seekers filing in and out of Donald Trump’s marquee Manhattan tower, Blackwater founder Erik Prince (right) was largely out of sight. And yet Prince was very much a presence, providing advice to Trump’s inner circle, including his top national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, according to people familiar with his activities." (Bloomberg : 18 April,2017) (my emphasis)

The indelible links between the Kremlin and Trump and his associates, both during and after the US presidential elections, continues to emerge into the light of day.

We are therefore left with two possible intriguing questions.

• Is Donald Trump's recent bombing in Syria, and his current dangerous stand-off with North Korea's Kim Jong-un, his way of attempting to deflect the eyes of the American people away from the active involvement of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' in helping him gain the White House?

• And is the current attempt by Exxon Mobil to obtain  a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft a hint that Putin is now demanding 'payback' for getting Trump into the White House?

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan is having unforseen consequences that no-one could have ever predicted.

In 1999, a month after being appointed by Yeltsin as Prime Minister of Russia, Putin rose from being an unknown politician likely to loose the upcoming Russian presidential election, to becoming the most popular politician in Russia and, subsequently, President of Russia

Putin's rise to power was on the back of the second Chechen war that was precipitated by the Moscow bombings in 1999 that many, up to today, believe have Putin's FSB fingerprints all over it.(full video)

Fast forward to 2017, and a lowly rated President Trump suddenly finds his Presidential ratings moving up as he confronts North Korean's Kim Jong-un. (full video)

Separated by almost two decades, and having totally different precipitating circumstances, these two events, nonetheless, bear some rather striking similarities.

In the first instance it propelled Putin into the Kremlin, just as the second instance now seem to be suddenly increasing the 'presidential stature' of Donald Trump.

In the second instance, Putin unleashed a horrific war against the Chechen people, just as Trump's actions may precipitate Kim Jong-un unleashing a horrific war against the people of South Korea.

Putin, in the recent past, brought the world to the brink of World War III.

Now, however, Trump is staring into the abyss of precipitating World War III.

But in so doing Trump has, unwittingly, deflected the gaze of the world from the fact that Putin propelled him into the White House in the hope that the EU-US sanctions against him, precipitated by his annexation of Crimea and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, will be lifted.

The investigations of the Senate and Congressional Intelligence Committees in the US continue to unearth the indelible links between the Kremlin and Trump and his associates during the US presidential elections.

The Rachel Maddow Show 13/04/17

So, in helping Donald Trump reach the US White House Putin, expecting 'payback' in the form of Trump undoing US sanctions against Russia, has put a man in the US White House who now stands on the verge of precipitating World War III.

The scarlet thread of Maidan is having unforseen consequences that no-one could have ever predicted. 

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to entangle Trump and Putin.

On Tuesday, 21 March 2017 I wrote that,

"Tillerson's scurrying off to the Kremlin next month, and foregoing his first meeting with all NATO members,  just as the Congressional and Senate investigations into Putin's direct intervention in the US presidential elections are set in motion, signals that both Putin and Trump are beginning to panic." (blog entry : Tuesday, 21 March 2017)

Since then, the Syrian crises caused by Bashar Al Assad 'gassing' his people, and North Korea,

" ...  threatening "tough counteraction" after a U.S. Navy strike group was routed toward the Korean Peninsula following the rogue nation's continued ballistic missile and nuclear testing" (NPR : April 11, 2017),

has only served to compound the disarray that now grips Trump's White House. 

And then, just as he is about to leave for Moscow, Rex Tillerson (right) sparks off consternation at the G7 gathering yesterday in Lucca, Italy by remarking that,

“Why should U.S. taxpayers be interested in Ukraine?” Tillerson asked foreign ministers discussing Russia’s intervention there ... " (Nick Wadhams and John Follain : Bloomberg : 11 April 2017) (my emphasis)

To which Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), the French Foreign Minister, had responded that,

"... American taxpayers ought to want a European Union that’s “strong politically, strong from a security point of view, and strong economically." (ibid Wadhams & Follain) (my emphasis)

It should also be noted that Tillerson,

"...  flew to Russia immediately after the gathering and was not immediately available for comment." (Crispian Balmer (right): Business Insider UK (Reuters) : Apr. 11, 2017) (my emphasis) 

John McLaughlin, former CIA Deputy Director, in an interview with MSNBC's Lawrence O' Donnell, clearly explains the importance of Ukraine to the US as outlined to him by a Member of the Ukrainian Rada.

Now we should bear in mind that Tillerson himself only recently,

".. has argued that the U.S. and Europe should not lift its sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.

“The reason the sanctions were put in place continue to exist,” Tillerson said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“There’s been no change of the status of the situation in Ukraine or Crimea. And those sanctions will remain in place until those issues are addressed.” (Olivia Beavers (left): The Hill :  11/04/17) (my emphasis)

It is true that the 'reason' the sanctions were put in place viz. the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea by Putin, and his continuing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, does, indeed, continue to exist.

As UNIAN reports,

"Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 45 times in the past 24 hours with five Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press service of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters" (UNIAN : 12 April 2017) (my emphasis)

What is rather disconcerting about Tillerson's remark “Why should U.S. taxpayers be interested in Ukraine?” is that it calls into question his earlier assertion that, "“There’s been no change of the status of the situation in Ukraine or Crimea. And those sanctions will remain in place until those issues are addressed.”.

The key phrase is, " ...  those sanctions will remain in place until those issues are addressed.”.

 Tillerson gives no hint whatsoever whether 'addressing those issues" refers to the full institution of the Minsk2 protocols, or to some 'other' form of addressing Putin's war with Ukraine and his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea. 

Tillerson NEVER mentions the Minsk2 protocols!

Which, once again, brings us back to the mounting evidence of the possible collusion between Trump and his associates, and Putin, in getting Trump elected into the White House.

 

 Yesterday's (11 April, 2017) breaking news on this front continues to unveil the close links between Trump's election associates and Putin.

The US Congressional Intelligence Committee is once again on track in their investigations into the extent to which Putin assisted in the election of Trump into the White House.

As Bashar al Assad's use of chemical bombs against Syrian civilians begins to recede into the background, so are the direct links between Trump and Putin during the US presidential elections once again moving to the forefront.

Neither Trump nor Putin can escape from the scarlet thread of Maidan that continues to entangle them.

 

(to be continued)

Putin praying for a Marine Le Pen victory in French Presidential elections

Since the 'Putin-aided' election of Donald Trump to the US White House, we all seem to be now living in an almost "Alice In Wonderland" world of US politics.


Trump, it would seem, has embraced the "THREE D's" that underpins the Presidency of Putin viz.

Spread seeds of DOUBT,

Wear the cloak of DENIAL and, finally,

Create an interlocking web of DECEPTION.

And whilst many Trump-friendly political commentators are running down false rabbit holes being dug by Trump and his White House acolytes, UNIAN reported that,

"The Trilateral Contact Group has welcomed the determination demonstrated by all the participants in the Minsk process to ensure a full ceasefire prior to Easter holidays, which will enter into force on April 1, 2017" (UNIAN : 29 March 2017) (my emphasis)

However yesterday (4 April, 2017), as UNIAN now reports,

"There were two killed in action (KIA) and another five wounded in action (WIA)," Defense Ministry speaker for Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) issues Oleksandr Motuzianyk said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday, April 4, an UNIAN correspondent reported. 

As UNIAN reported earlier, Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 48 times in the past 24 hours." (UNIAN : 04 April 2017) (my emphasis)

Overwhelmed not only by Putin's meddling in the US Presidential elections, but also by reports now identifying his meddling in the upcoming French presidential elections, as well as the German Chancellorship elections later this year, Putin's war with Ukraine has now been pushed off the front page of political news.

Yet all this meddling by Putin in the elections of the US, France, and Germany is to achieve, among other objectives, to get the millstone of US-EU sanctions off his neck.

In this endeavor, his 'blossoming romance' with Marine Le Pen is beginning to pay dividends.

As reported by Pauline Bock (right),

"The candidates most probable to reach the second round are currently Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Some polls put Macron leading the first round, but Le Pen has a stronger base: her voters are much less likely to change their minds." (New Statesman : 4 April, 2017)

However, the success of Brexit and Donald Trump is a 'cautionary tale' about poll predictions.  

In both of these cases the polls were hopelessly wrong. The predictions of the pollsters failed miserably.

Putin is now banking on these failures in the hope that Marine Le Pen will surprise everyone by being elected President of France.

Then that US-EU sanctions millstone around his neck will be finally lifted off.

(to be contoinued)

Putin is at 'panic stations'

"Oh! what a tangled web we weave

When first we practice to deceive"

Yesterday I wrote that,

"When Putin ordered his acolytes in the Kremlin to 'steal' information from Democratic Party computers in the US as a means of assisting Trump get into the White House, he did not quite anticipate just how swiftly the deep links between Trump and his top White House officials, and himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki', would become universally exposed.(full video)" (blog entry: Monday, 27 March 2017)

This morning we learn that,

"Jared Kushner (left) has been asked to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee to discuss communications between Trump aides and Russian officials, the first time a White House official will be interviewed by investigators over Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 election." (Courtney Weaver : Financial Times : March 27, 2017) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"... in addition to meeting Mr Kislyak in December, Mr Kushner met Sergei Gorkov, the head of Russia’s state-owned bank Vnesheconombank. That meeting occurred at the request of Mr Kislyak, the Times reported. " (ibid Courtney Weaver) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow, of MSNBC, exposes the links between Russia’s state-owned bank Vnesheconombank, Putin, Ukraine, and Jared Kushner. (Full Report)

In particular, she also outlines the inextricable link between the EU-US sanctions that resulted from Putin's invasion of, and subsequent annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, as well as his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, and Jared Kushner and Sergei Gorkov. 
 

 Part 1

Part 2

Rachel Maddow also reports on the ever-expanding White House brief that Kushner is in charge of, including modernizing the technology and data infrastructure of every Federal department and agency, as well as broadband policy for the USA.

Like Trump, Kushner seems also to have a cosy relationship with Deutsche Bank, the very bank that is now under scrutiny in New York for, among other things, laundering Russian money.

 Recall that,

"In January a US regulator, the New York Department of Financial Services, fined Deutsche Bank $425m for laundering around $10bn of Russian money. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority imposed a £163m fine, its largest ever." ( Luke Harding, Stephanie Kirchgaessner, Nick Hopkins and David Smith : The Guardian : Thursday 16 February 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin must now be rueing the moment when he ordered his Kremlin henchmen to steal data from the Democratic Party computers because it has not only exposed his sympathizers in the White House, but also seems to be heading Trump towards a possible impeachment, UNIAN reports that,

"The situation in the zone of the Anti-Terrorist Operation has become more intense as Russian-terrorist forces have attacked 88 times the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the past day, according to the ATO Headquarters.

The shelling was most intensive on the Mariupol line, the ATO HA wrote on Facebook." (UNIAN : 27 March 2017) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, though Putin is consolidating his 'romance' with France's National Front leader, Marine le Pen, he must be spitting nails because of Angela Merkel's election victory in Saarland against his Social Democratic sympathizers. 

 

As reported by Paul Carrel and Hakan Erdem,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives won a regional election in the western state of Saarland on Sunday, dealing a setback to their Social Democrat rivals and boosting her prospects of winning a fourth term in September's national election." (Reuters : Sun Mar 26, 2017) (my emphasis) 

As the revelations of Putin's interference in the US presidential elections continues to emerge, Putin is now also suffering from the collateral-damage this has caused to his global propaganda machinery viz. RT and Sputnik.

This weaponizing of information by Putin now turns out to be a double-edged sword. 

The general public in the West is now more aware of how his army of 'computer trolls' operate. They are also more aware of the propaganda role of RT and Sputnik.

More importantly, they are becoming more aware of how these propaganda outlets of Putin disseminate 'false news' or, in other words, that they lie.

Putin is now at 'panic stations'.

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to weave itself even tighter around Trump and Putin.

As the 'bromance' between Trump and Putin begins to seriously falter under the weight of the mounting revelations about the direct links between key lieutenants in the Trump administration and Putin's 'siloviki' in the Kremlin, so the 'romance' between Putin and Marine Le Pen begins to blossom in the Spring air.

As reported by Juliet Perry (right),

"Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that Russia was not seeking to influence the upcoming French election but had the right to communicate with French politicians."

whilst Marine Le Pen,

"...  told the speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, that she had "always pressed for the abolition of sanctions" because she regarded them as "counter-productive," Tass said." (CNN : March 25, 2017) (my emphasis)

The unraveling of Putin's direct interference in the US presidential elections has shut the door against Donald Trump  being able to give Putin 'sanctions-removal payback' for helping him move into the White House using methods of subterfuge.

And now Putin's attention has turned towards Marine Le Pen, and the upcoming French Presidential elections, as a means of getting those US-EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clan in the Kremlin, that was brought about by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, removed.

When Putin ordered his acolytes in the Kremlin to 'steal' information from Democratic Party computers in the US as a means of assisting Trump get into the White House, he did not quite anticipate just how swiftly the deep links between Trump and his top White House officials, and himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki', would become universally exposed.(full video)

It is no wonder that Putin's  'Sean Spicer' equivalent, Dmitry Peskov, had to re-assure us that,

".. Russia was not seeking to influence the upcoming French election" (ibid Juliet Perry)    

Yet, no matter what Trump and his top administrators try to conceal about their direct links with Putin and his Kremlin cronies, evidence just keeps on emerging about these links.

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to weave itself even tighter around Trump and Putin.

(to be continued)

Tillerson' scurrying off to the Kremlin is ominous for Ukraine

Yesterday's 5 hour Congressional Hearing into Putin's direct meddling into the US presidential elections, with the aid and assistance of senior members of Donald Trump's election committee, has revealed the direct link between Putin's war with Ukraine and his stealing and dissemination of data from the Democratic Party computer systems to undermine Hillary Clinton, and help Trump win the White House.

The US-EU sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki', that followed his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), is now centre-stage in the Congressional investigation into his direct meddling in the US presidential elections which was aided and abetted by some of Trump's loyal lieutenants.

And we now have breaking news from Reuters that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson plans to skip a meeting with NATO foreign ministers next month in order to stay home for a visit by China's president and will go to Russia later in April, U.S. officials said on Monday, disclosing an itinerary that allies may see as giving Moscow priority over them.

Tillerson intends to miss what would have been his first meeting of the 28 NATO allies on April 5-6 in Brussels so that he can attend President Donald Trump's expected April 6-7 talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, four current and former U.S. officials said." (Arshad Mohammed and John Walcott: Reuters : Tue Mar 21, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall that I suggested last month that,

"And as of yesterday (15/2/2017) the unraveling of the Putin-Trump connection continues apace.

Putin's gambit to help Trump get elected, and to then get Trump to help him with removing the US and EU sanctions against  himself and his 'siloviki' clan because of his ill-fated Crimean and eastern Ukraine (Donbas) invasions, seems to be fading fast.

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to wrap itself even tighter around both Putin and Trump.(blog entry : Thursday, 16 February 2017)

Tillerson's scurrying off to the Kremlin next month, and foregoing his first meeting with all NATO members,  just as the Congressional and Senate investigations into Putin's direct intervention in the US presidential elections are set in motion, signals that both Putin and Trump are beginning to panic.

The imminent failure of Putin's "Trump gambit", as the Congressional and Senate hearings gain momentum, presents the world with the prospect of a wider war between Ukraine and Putin.

Now, more than at any time, Merkel's illusion of clinging to the Minsk2 agreements as a panacea for bringing a peaceful resolution to the war between Ukraine and Putin, has simply evaporated into thin air.

Like Trump, Putin simply cannot admit failure without lashing out. And herein lies the danger.

For both Trump and Putin, the eyes of the world cannot be averted this time with either 'tweets' or scaremongering 'sabre rattling'.

Tillerson's scurrying off to the Kremlin is ominous for Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Trump and Putin have the Sword of Damocles dangling above their heads

The much anticipated first meeting between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump has finally come and gone.

Last Friday (17 March 2017) they met at the White House and, at their press conference, it was apparent that they may have differing views on how to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Trump's rather perfunctory statement about Ukraine made absolutely no mention of the Minsk2 protocols.

Rather, it was Merkel who mentioned Minsk2, adding that Trump also commits himself to Minsk2.

Strangely, Trump refused to shake Merkel's hand after their meeting, which may be an indication that all is not well between the Chancellor of Germany and the President of the US.

Could this, by any chance, have anything to do with the fact that, as stated by German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (right) on the same day as the Merkel-Trump meeting that,

"It is important that Europe and the United States present a unified front and stick to the sanctions against Russia until there is progress in implementing the Minsk agreements," Gabriel said in an interview with the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper, to be published on Saturday." (Andrea Shalal : Reuters : Sat Mar 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall that on 13th March 2017, the EU prolonged sanctions over actions against Ukraine's territorial integrity until 15 September 2017 (EU Council : 13/03/2017)

Was it this that Merkel relayed to Trump and that stuck in his throat, especially when viewed against his disgraced, and sacked, National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn? How, now, is he to pay back Putin for getting him into the White House?

 
This seeming chasm between the EU and Trump and his White House clan over Putin's war with Ukraine, and what measures should be taken to resolve it, is about to become more apparent as the US Congress and Senate continue to unravel Putin's role in influencing the outcome of the US presidential elections.

As also reported by CNN,

"Ukrainian prosecutors want to question Paul Manafort (left) in connection with a corruption investigation and have made repeated requests for assistance from US authorities, CNN has learned.

Prosecutors in Kiev said they have made seven separate appeals over the past two years for help in questioning President Donald Trump's former campaign manager, including letters to FBI Director James Comey and US Justice Department officials. Ukrainian officials said the US has not responded to those requests." (CNN : March 19, 2017) (my emphasis)

 

To-day's Senate hearing on Russia's involvement in the 2016 election may lead to the granting of the request of Ukrainian prosecutors to question Manafort on his role in the Yanukovich regime just prior to the Maidan revolution.

As reported by Juliette Kayyem (right),

"On Monday, the House Intelligence Committee will hold its first, much-anticipated public hearing on Russia's involvement in the 2016 election. The hearing is significant because it will determine whether all the noise regarding Russia, Trump and the relationship between the two is grounds for further investigation.

There is quite a bit to look out for. But five key players will determine how much bigger this story gets. (James Comey, Sally Yates, David Nunes, Adam Schiff, Michael Flynn, and Donald Trump himself)" (CNN : March 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst the un-ravelling of the Trump White House clan's connections to Putin and the Kremlin continues apace,

 

"The Russian occupation forces mounted 26 attacks on the Ukrainian positions in the Mariupol sector. The village of Vodiane came under fire from heavy machine guns, grenade launchers and anti-aircraft guns. Moreover, at about 18:00 Kyiv time, the enemy started shelling there, using 122mm artillery systems.
Heavy machine guns were used to fire on Ukrainian positions near the villages of Pavlopil, Shyrokyne and Hnutove, while grenade launchers were used near the village of Lebedynske. The towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka came under mortar fire." (UNIAN : 20 March 2017) (my emphasis)

Both Trump and Putin have the Sword of Damocles dangling above their heads.

(to be continued)

Will the upcoming Merkel-Trump meeting throw Ukraine under the bus?

Roberta Rampton and Steve Holland (left) report that,

"President Donald Trump will ask German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her views on how the United States can help resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine when they meet next week, senior Trump administration officials said on Friday.

Trump is also interesting in hearing Merkel's view on how to deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the officials said. (Business Insider UK (Reuters) : Mar. 10, 2017) (cf also: Reuters, VOA, CNBC, New York Times) (my emphasis)

Let us for a moment recall that just before Trump's inauguration as President of the US there was a bit of a 'spat' between Trump and Merkel.

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had made a "catastrophic mistake" with a policy that let a wave of more than one million migrants into her country." (Reuters : Sun Jan 15, 2017) (my emphasis)

to which Merkel had replied,

“We Europeans have our fate in our own hands.” Speaking during a press conference with New Zealand’s prime minister, Bill English, she said: “He has presented his positions once more. They have been known for a while. My positions are also known.” (Philip Oltermann and Alec Luhn : The Guardian : Monday 16 January 2017) (my emphasis)

So what, exactly, has precipitated this sudden change in Trump's attitude towards Angela Merkel? 

Why, suddenly, is Ukraine to be high on their agenda?

Recall that in her maiden speech at the UN, Trump's UN ambassador Nikki Hayley (left) stated that,

"The United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the Russian occupation of Crimea," said Nikki Haley, President Donald Trump's envoy to the world body. "Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine." (Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : February 3, 2017) (my emphasis)

Since her speech at the UN nothing has been forthcoming from Donald Trump about Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, nor about Putin's continuing war in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) until now, that is.

In light of the impending investigations in the US about the links between Putin's meddling in the US Presidential elections and key members of  Trump's election officials, Trump himself now has to begin to distance himself from what these investigations may bring to light.

More importantly, is this the beginning of Trump distancing himself from Putin?

Is this why he is now wanting to cozy up to Merkel for her knowledge about 'how to deal with Putin'? 

(March 8th, 2017)

And where, oh! where, is Trump's Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson (left)?

It would be interesting to see whether Tillerson, a long-time-friend of Putin, will also be part of Trump's conversations with Merkel, especially on 'how to deal with Putin' and, more importantly, what to do about eastern Ukraine (Donbas) and Ukrainian Crimea.

 
Anders Åslund (right) writes that,

"The Kremlin is utilizing the absence of foreign policy leadership in Washington to advance quickly on Ukraine’s eastern front. If Washington does not wake up fast, Russia may have moved the facts on the ground too far. Ukraine is all too likely to be the first big Western cost of the Trump administration." (The Hill : 09/03/17) (my emphasis)  

 Underscoring what Anders Åslund wrote is the fact that,

"Russia-backed rebels have killed two soldiers and wounded more than a dozen others, according to Ukraine's army, in a new uptick in violence across eastern Ukraine despite the latest ceasefire.

Andriy Lysenko (left), a Ukrainian military spokesman, said on Saturday that two servicemen were killed and 16 more injured in the past 24 hours, accusing separatists of using heavy weapons against government troops." (AlJazeera : 11 March, 2017) (my emphasis)

Will the Merkel-Trump meeting next Friday uphold the opinion of Anders Åslund that "Ukraine is all too likely to be the first big Western cost of the Trump administration."?

We can but wait and see. 

(to be continued)