"US
President-elect Donald Trump has announced that plans are underway for a
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. With Trump’s return to
the White House on January 20, some anticipate a diplomatic resolution
to end to the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, while others in
Kyiv fear that a swift peace deal could come at a high cost for
Ukraine." (Firstpost:16 January 2025) (my emphasis)
Palki Sharma (left) raises the most critical question viz.,
"Russia claims to have launched a missile attack on Donetsk. For Trump’s upcoming meeting with Putin, will Ukrainian President Zelensky receive an invite?" (ibid Palki Sharma)
And in anticipation of this new 'bromance' between Putin and Trump, Sarah Rainsford reports that,
"Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to put Ukraine in the "strongest possible position" on a trip to Kyiv where he signed a "landmark" 100-year pact with the war-stricken country." (BBC News: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis)
"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) indirectly criticised Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his reluctance to approve a further 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in additional military aid for Ukraine.
"To be honest, it hurts me a lot," she said without mentioning the chancellor's name in an interview with Politico released on Friday, adding that for some politicians gaining a few votes was more important than securing Europe's peace and freedom." (Reuters: 17 January 2025) (my emphasis)
"German opposition lawmakers on Thursday accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right)of dirty campaign tactics over his demand for additional borrowing to finance an aid package for Ukraine worth €3 billion ($3.1 billion). ... For Klein, Scholz is "carrying out election campaign manoeuvres on the backs of the Ukrainians."
The criticism was echoed by Johann Wadephul from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, who said "Scholz's new dodge on the issue of further aid for hard-pressed Ukraine is a real low point in the current election campaign." " (DPA International on Yahoo News: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis)
It therefore no wonder that, as reported by Kieron-monks(left),
"Kremlin officials are cautiously welcoming the return of Donald Trump and building relations with his administration, while aiming to avoid reviving “Russiagate” scandals that dogged Trump’s first term, and tempering expectations about his policies on Ukraine.
The Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (right), praised the president-elect – who takes office on 20 January – for raising Nato expansion as a factor in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
... Moscow’s stated conditions before potential talks include that Russia must retain four regions of Ukraine its forces annexed in 2022, and that Ukraine must never join Nato – both terms rejected by Kyiv and its allies, although Trump and his team have expressed greater openness." (The i Paper on MSN: 16 January 2025) (my emphasis)
No doubt Putin is cracking open the champagne to toast Trump being inaugurated as US president on Monday.
Everything now hinges on how the EU will react to ANY Trump-Putin meeting about the war in Ukraine that EXCLUDES Zelensky.
UK Prime Minister Sharmer has already pledged to put Ukraine in the "strongest possible position" regarding ANY negotiations about ending Putin's war in Ukraine.
Whither now the EU??
The spectre of Putin's war-shadow readies itself to engulf Europe.
"Donald
Trump's plan may still work. To deliver peace he will have to build
consensus. He made it sound like a 'cakewalk'. But it may turn out to be one of the toughest challenges of his presidency. We do hope he 'cracks' it." ( cf Palki Sharma vidio: Firstpost: 3 January 2025)
Confirming what Palki Sharma has said, we now have Trump, himself, adding to the diplomatic toughness of his pre-US President boastful assertions about quickly ending Putin's war in Ukraine.
"Donald Trump’s impromptu declaration that America will acquire Greenland, the Panama Canal and possibly Canada during his second presidential term have set the hares running in embassies across the world. ... Germany and Denmark have all warned Mr Trump not to pursue Greenland, which has been in Danish hands since the early 19th century, and expressed alarm over his refusal to rule out a military invasion to secure it." (Daily Telegraph: 8 January 2025) (my emphasis)
By following in the 'country-invasion playbook' of Putin, when he invaded Ukraine for the second time in 2022, Trump's assertion that he does not, "... rule out a military invasion of Greenland to secure it", must surely be music to Putin's ears.
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left)has outright rejected peace proposals linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s team, casting doubt on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Lavrov criticised the Trump camp's leaked ideas, including delaying Ukraine's NATO membership by 20 years and stationing European peacekeeping troops within Ukraine." (ibid Palki Sharma)
We should not discount the fact that soon-to-be 78 year-old US President-elect, Donald Trump, is surrounding himself with a coterie of much younger internet oligarchs like Elon Musk and, more recently, Mark Zuckerberg (right: Musk and Zuckerberg)
Their control over the global data on the internet is governed by their ideology of near 'absolute free-speech' for everyone in the world, an ideology which is sending shivers down the spines of world leaders and politicians.
"With less than two weeks until Donald Trump takes office, an actual real-life — not metaphorical — oligarchy is coalescing around the president-elect. It’s pretty unprecedented in the context of the United States and ominous in many respects, but it is also a genuinely clarifying development for the pro-democracy coalition, especially as it prepares its opposition to the second Trump administration." (MSNBC: 8 January 2025) (my emphasis)
"Ukraine's Western allies will gather with President Volodymyr Zelensky at a US base in Germany on Thursday in their last such meeting before Donald Trump returns to the White House in less than two weeks.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce a substantial new military aid package for Kyiv at the 25th such talks at Ramstein Air Base that will include representatives from some 50 countries.
Ukrainian president Zelensky only confirmed late Wednesday that he will fly in for the meeting.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas were also expected at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting starting at 1000 GMT alongside German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius." (France 24: 9 January 2025) (my emphasis)
"The Biden administration has announced the final tranche of military aid it will send to Ukraine, amounting to about $500 million. ... The last package comes as the White House prepares to announce another round of sanctions on Russia, expected at the end of this week. US officials have argued they are trying to give Ukraine the greatest leverage possible ahead of possible negotiations to end the war this year." (CNN: 9 January 2025) (my emphasis)
So whilst Putin seems to be digging in his heels by rejecting peace proposals linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s team, in the hope that Trump will cave in to his demands; given that Trump himself wants to invade and annex Greeenland, the dire state of Russia's economy and army is being internationally displayed for all to see.
Putin is now treading water in the deepening political puddle he is floundering in.
UPDATE: 11 January 2024 : GMT 09:56
Putin is now drowning under the weight of new economic sanctions descending upon the failing Russian economy.
"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed new oil sanctions on Russia by the UK and US, thanking the two allies for their “unwavering support” against Russia’s war machine.
Washington announced a comprehensive new sanctions package against Russia’s oil industry on Friday with trade restrictions imposed on nearly 200 Russian vessels, dozens of traders, some senior Russian oil executives, and two major oil companies.
The UK also imposed its own restrictions on the Russian oil giants – Gazprom Neft and PJSC Surgutneftegas." (The Independent on MSN: 11 January 2025) (my emphasis)
"Japan’s Cabinet on Friday approved additional sanctions against Russia over its war on Ukraine, including freezing the assets of dozens of individuals and groups and banning exports to dozens of organizations in Russia and several other countries that have allegedly helped it evade sanctions." (AP: 10 January 2025) (my emphasis)
It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by Thibault Spirlet(right),
"Russia's elites are growing tired of waiting for the war to end and are concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy, according to a report by Meduza.
High-ranking sources told the independent Russian outlet that Russia's "elites" are disappointed that the war with Ukraine didn't end in 2024. ... Russia's economy has also come under strain due to persistent high inflation, slowing economic growth, and Western sanctions." (Business Insider: 10 January 2025) (my emphasis)
With the possible upcoming meeting between incoming US president Trump and Putin, the critical question is:
"Will Trump now throw Putin a lifeline to save him from politically drowning?"
As we enter the New Year of 2025, let us recall that,
"On 14 March 1939, Slovakia, led by Vojtech Tuka (1880-1946), declared itself independent, an act which was encouraged by Hitler as a means to break up the remainder of the old Czechoslovakia. ... On 15 March, on the pretext that they were “invited to restore order" (McDonough, 80), German soldiers marched into what remained of Czechoslovakia.
Hitler, later the same day, made a triumphant tour of Prague." (Mark Cartwright: World History: 30 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Mark Cartwright (right) goes on to record in his article that,
"Hungary, as promised by the First Vienna Award of 2 November 1938 (an agreement between the Axis powers), seized the southern parts of Ruthenia and a southern slice of Slovakia – both of these areas had large or majority Hungarian populations." (ibid Mark Cartwright)
"As ordinary Slovaks were preparing to celebrate Christmas and New Year, their populist prime minister [Robert Fico] was locked in a battery of diplomatic talks in Brussels and Moscow to try and keep Russian gas flowing to the country.
But, after his bid to keep paying the Kremlin for fuel failed — and the pipelines were turned off as 2024 came to an end — his increasingly hysterical warnings of an energy crisis in Central Europe look to be hot air." (Politico: 2 January 2025) (my emphasis)
They go on to report that, ".... the Slovak leader [Robert Fico]has even threatened to cut off electricity exports to Kyiv in retribution for its refusal to renegotiate the deal with Russia, teaming up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to pressure Ukraine." (ibid Gabriel Gavin, Ketrin Jochecová and Hanne Cokelaere)
Just as Hungary and Sovakia stood with Germany during WW2, we now, in 2024, have history repeating itself as Fico and Orbán confront the rest of the EU countries by supporting Putin with their demand that Ukraine pipelines continue to allow Russian gas to flow into Slovakia and Hungary, irrespective of the fact that the Ukraine-Russia pipeline contract has expired.
And as Orban and Fico team up against Ukraine, Tara Copp(right) reports that,
"President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States will send nearly $2.5 billion more in weapons to Ukraine as his administration works quickly to spend all the money it has available to help Kyiv fight off Russia before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. ... Biden said all longer-term USAI funds have now been spent and that he seeks to fully use all the remaining drawdown money before leaving office.
“I’ve directed my administration to continue surging as much assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible,” Biden said in a statement. “At my direction, the United States will continue to work relentlessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in this war over the remainder of my time in office.” " (AP : 30 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Spurrring Biden on is the fact that, as Maya Mehrara(right) reports,
"Russia has rejected parts of Donald Trump's proposed Ukraine peace plan, according to comments given in an interview by Moscow's foreign minister to the state news agency Tass.
Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow is "not satisfied" with elements of the president-elect's peace plan that were revealed in an interview with Time magazine and other leaks, namely delaying Ukraine's ascent to NATO by 20 years and deploying a contingent of EU and U.K. peacekeepers in Ukraine." (Newsweek: 30 December 2024) (my emphasis)
As I wrote in my last blog post (28 December 2024), and which underscores what that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has said (cf: Palki Sharma: Firstpost: 3 January 2025),
"I want to read to you what John Kirby has to say about Putin's comments [about peace talks]. He
described them as vacuous and said, "This is not a man that anyone
should take seriously when it comes to saying, "... he is ready for a
negotiated settlement ...".
She then asks the former US ambassador to Ukraine [William Taylor], "Are you as sceptical as John Kirby?"
To which the former ambassador replies, "I am Chris .. I am"(MSNBC on MSN: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)
"Donald
Trump's plan may still work. To deliver peace he will have to build
consensus. He made it sound like a 'cakewalk'. But it may turn out to be one of the toughest challenges of his presidency. We do hope he 'cracks' it." (video above: Palki Sharma: Firstpost: 3 January 2025)
In 2025, Putin will have to make a "Do or Die" choice about ending his war in Ukraine 'peacefully'.
Russia being responsible for the cutting of undersea cables supplying electricity to Estonia. As reported by Sarah Shamim, "Finnish authorities seized a Russia-linked ship in the Baltic Sea on Thursday, on suspicion that it damaged an undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia a day earlier.
The incident has intensified fears in Europe over a Russian hybrid war targeting critical infrastructure in the Baltic and beyond." (Aljazeera: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)
as reported by The Times of India, we have Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, fuming that,
"Putin Aide Suggests Punishing Europe Over Its 'Bloodthirsty Policies' Against Russia.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has called for decisive action against Europe, accusing it of "anti-Russian" policies and advocating political, economic, and hybrid measures to punish European nations aligned with the U.S" (The Times of India: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)
"North Korean forces are experiencing mass casualties on the front lines of Russia's war against Ukraine, with a thousand of their troops killed or wounded in the last week alone in Russia's Kursk region, White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Friday.
The number far exceeds the figure U.S. officials have previously provided.
"It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses," Kirby said, describing the North Korean troops' offensive as "massed, dismounted assaults." (Reuters: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)
It is therefore no wonder that Putin, splashing around aimlessly in the 'political puddle' that he now finds himself in, is now open to 'peace talks' about his war in Ukraine.
"I want to read to you what John Kirby has to say about Putin's comments [about peace talks]. He described them as vacuous and said, "This is not a man that anyone should take seriously when it comes to saying, "... he is ready for a negotiated settlement ...".
She then asks the fomer US ambassador to Ukraine [William Taylor], "Are you as sceptical as John Kirby?"
To which the former ambassador replies, "I am Chris .. I am"(MSNBC on MSN: 27 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Now six days ago, (25th July 2014) Alexander J. Motylposed the following question: " Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand
behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life.
Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil
enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of
good will."(CNN: 25 July 2014) (my emphasis) He further goes on to point out that, "Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic
relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask
themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his
killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they
must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why
they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and
other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander
Motyl) Furthermore, ".... the willingness of France, Germany and all the other states making up
the European Union to respond to Putin's evil doing will determine the
moral fate of the EU. If they sacrifice morality to arms contracts or
gas, the EU will have lost its rasion d'etre. Worse, like Putin, it will
be without a soul.""(ibid Alexander
Motyl)
Fast foreward to 2024, and the world expresses utter shock and disgust at Putin's bombardment of the people of Ukraine on Christmas day.
The question that Alexander posed is 2014 about the 'evil' nature of Putin, when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, now looms even larger.
he had asked the Defense Department to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, after condemning Russia's Christmas Day attack on Ukraine's energy system and some of its cities. ... "The purpose of this outrageous attack was to cut off the Ukrainian people's access to heat and electricity during winter and to jeopardize the safety of its grid," Biden, a Democrat, said in a statement. (Reuters: 25 December 2024) (my emphasis)
What is rather striking about this heinous attack of Putin against the people of Ukraine on 25 December 2024 is the fact that, as reported by Hafsa Khalil (left),
"As millions of Ukrainians celebrate Christmas Day, Russia has launched a major missile and drone attack on the country's energy infrastructure. ... Russia confirms what it calls the "massive" attack, saying the "goal was achieved" (BBC News: 25 December 024) (my emphasis)
And so, these
'attempts' to begin 'peace talks' about Putin's war in Ukraine are
suddenly developing an 'urgency' of their own amongst Putin's
'siloviki'.
"Russian oligarchs and business executives have directed their anger at the country’s state away from Putin - and have instead taken a swipe at their central bank’s governor. ... However, instead of blaming the war for the economic state, the Russians are aiming their discontent at the Russian bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina.(Express: 19 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Not to be outdone, John Varga(right) reports that,
"Chechnya's strongman leader Ramzan Kadyrov (left)has launched a blistering attack on two of Vladimir Putin's most trusted and senior officials.
Kadyrov's outburst was directed at Alexander Bastrykin, the head of Russia's Investigative Committee, and Vladimir Kolokoltsev, the Minister of Internal Affairs.
The former is one of Putin's closest allies and the latter was directly appointed to his post by the Russian leader." (Express: 18 December 2024) (my emphasis)
And then we have Putin himself, during his rambling end-of-year marathon 'question-and answer' session from the Russian people, and from the international community, attempting to boast that,
"Despite the toll his war has taken on Russia’s finances and the lives of its young men, Putin claimed that sending troops into Ukraine in 2022 has boosted his country’s military and economic power." (Tom Watling and Namita Singh: The Independent: 20 December 2024) (my emphasis)
whilst at the same time Adam Toms(left) points out that,
"Vladimir Putin is facing a construction nightmare as stocks in Russia's biggest construction group plummet. ... Russian news agency Interfax describes the Samolet Group as "the leader in terms of current construction volume in Russia".
At the time of writing, according to Investing.com, the firm's stocks have decreased by 78.05 percent in a year." (The Express: 19 December 2024) (my emphasis)
We should all be reminded of the currrent collapse of China's construction industry, and how it is causing the Chinese economy to teeter on the brink of implosion.
"As the dust settles on China's real estate sector, the global economy awaits the Chinese Communist Party's next move. With property once at the core of Xi Jinping’s domestic economy, fueling China’s miraculous growth into the 21st century and contributing over 18 percent to global GDP in 2023, the faltering real estate market poses a daunting challenge to global economic stability." (International Relations Review: 12 April 2024) (my emphasis)
And against the backdrop of Putin's 'marathon' Q&A session,
Some two hundred North Korean troops fighting alongside Russia's forces against Ukraine have been killed or wounded during fighting in the Russian Kursk border region, according to a senior US military official. (Chris Samuel: Express: 18 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Ukraine has launched a missile and drone attack on an oil refinery in the Russian city of Novoshakhtinsk, officials there have reported. ... The fire broke out in the early hours of this morning, December 19, lighting up the night sky with a glow of burning orange, the Russian Telegram news channel Astra reported. (Lauran O'Toole: Express: 19 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Vladimir Putin is facing a fresh sanction nightmare as a new wave of economic measures hits Russia. The EU's Council - the bloc's institution that defines its "general political direction and priorities" - announced yesterday that it had approved its fifteenth package of measures aimed at impeding Putin's capability to wage war in Ukraine. (Adam Toms: Express: 17 December 2024) (my emphasis)
The Danish government has prepared the 23rd military assistance package for Ukraine in the amount of DKK 2.1 billion (EUR 281.5 million) to strengthen air defence and combat aviation. (Source: Danish Defence Ministry, as reported by European Pravda) Details: As part of the aid package, Denmark is allocating funds, among other things, to strengthen Ukraine's air defence and operate Ukrainian F-16 fighters. (Oleh Pavliuk: Ukrainska Pravda on MSN: 19 December 2024) (my emphasis)
We also learn that,
"Ukraine possesses a laser weapon able to destroy aircraft flying more than a mile above ground and is developing breakthrough "mother drones", a top military official claims.
In comments on Monday reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, drone forces commander Vadym Sukharevskyi said, "Today we can already shoot down aircraft at an altitude of over 2 km with this laser," which he said was called Tryzub." (Chris Samuel: Express: 17 December 2024) (my emphasis)
Is it any wonder that, in his latest 'marathon' Q&A session,
"Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to hold talks with US President-elect Donald Trump, while striking a defiant tone on his war on Ukraine by saying he should have invaded sooner. ... “I don’t know when we’ll meet because he doesn’t say anything about it,” Putin said of Trump Thursday at his annual televised news conference and phone-in in Moscow. “I haven’t spoken to him at all for more than four years. (Really???) I’m ready for it, of course, at any time. And I’ll be ready to meet if he wants.” (Bloomberg on Yahoo News: 19 December 2024) (my emphasis)
But if Putin and Trump think that they can cobble together a 'peace' deal that may end Putin's war in Ukraine. entirely in his favour, they have another thing coming.
"European Union leaders insisted on Thursday that no decisions can be taken about the future of war-ravaged Ukraine without its consent or behind the backs of its partners in Europe, barely a month before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. ... In a show of solidarity at a summit in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, many EU leaders repeated a variation of what has become a common mantra — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about security in Europe without Europeans." (AP: 20 December 2024) (my emphasis)
That 2018 Helsinki summit 'bromance' between Putin and Trump has not been forgotten.
"President Trump has gone to extraordinary lengths to conceal details of his conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, including on at least one occasion taking possession of the notes of his own interpreter and instructing the linguist not to discuss what had transpired with other administration officials, current and former U.S. officials said." (The Washington Post: 3 January 2019) (my emphasis)
Putin knows that talks with Trump in 2024 will not be the same as talks with Trump in 2018!
So does Donald Trump!
Putin's offer of talks with Trump now has the world carefully watching.