Yesterday(19 November 2024) there were two significant develoments in Putin's 'land grab' war with Ukraine.
1. Since the use of US ATACM missiles by Ukraine to attack military targets inside Russia Putin has, once again, shaken his 'nuclear' fist particularly at the US, UK, and France, and also NATO countries, by LOWERING the treshold at which he would used 'nuclear bombs' against them.
2. More significantly, as reported by Kanjyik Ghosh and Lidia Kelly(right), "The U.S. embassy in Kyivhas received information of a potential significant air attack on Wednesday and will be closed, the U.S. Department of State Consular Affairs said in a statement.
"The U.S. Embassy recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced." (Reuters: 20 November 2024) (my emphasis)
These two events seem indicates Putin broadening his war with Ukraine to potentially include NATO countries.
It is therefore no coincidence that on the battlefront,Jaroslav Lukiv and David Willis report that, in light of Korean troops now joined up with Russian troops fighting against the army of Ukraine
"US President Joe Biden has agreed to give Ukraine anti-personnel land mines, a US defence official told the BBC, a move seen as an attempt to slow Russian troops who have been steadily advancing in Ukraine's east in recent months." (BBC News: 20 November 2024) (my emphasis)
And conspicuous by his absence at the 2024 G20 summit taking place in Brazil at the moment, we also learn from Divya A(right) that,
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India and the dates for his trip are being finalised, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday. ... This will be Putin’s first visit to India in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022.The announcement comes days after the election of US President Donald Trump, who is also expected to visit India next year for the Quad Summit." (The Indian Express: 20 November 2024) (my emphasis)
"The Quad Summit, originally scheduled to be held in New Delhi this September, was relocated to New York [next year] due to a scheduling conflict among the attending leaders." (India Today: 6 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Is Putin's upcoming visit to Narendra Modi a hint that Putin is now desperate for Modi to chair a "ceasefire" agreement between himself and Zelensky in his losing war with Ukraine?
Indeed, one has to assume that Putin and his 'siloviki' realise that if he sparks off a nuclear war with NATO countries that it will also spell the end of Russia.
Putin, it would seem, has come to the end of the line in his war with Ukraine.
Except for Kim Jon Un of North Korea; with no-one else left to turn to for help as his army of Russian soldiers is being dangerously depleted in his war with Ukraine, Putin has become a spent force.
Hoping that Narendra Modi of India will help him is all that he now has to 'save face'.
Putin could not have fully forseen the backlash of the responses of the US, UK, and EU when he imported North Korean soldiers into his war with Ukraine.
His previous 'bluffing' that NATO countries will be met with a forceful response from Russia if they allow NATO missiles to be used inside Russia itself has now been met by NATO coutries.
By 'forceful response' he was shaking nuclear missiles at NATO countries in the hope that this would deter NATO countries from allowing their missiles to be used inside Russia by Ukraine.
This 'threat' of Putin scared German Chancellor Scholtz (left) to such an extent that he steadfastly refused suppplying Ukraine with German Taurus missiles and, more recently, sought to appease Putin by having a tête-à-tête with him. (remember Angela Merkel? (right))
This recent appeasement of Putin by Scholtz caused 'international' political opprobium to be poured on his head.
"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his conversation with Vladimir Putin on Friday had given no indication of a shift in the Russian President's thinking on the war in Ukraine, but defended his much-criticised decision to phone the Kremlin. ... Critics, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the call was a breach of Western solidarity for the sake of domestic political advantage." (The Straits Times: 17 November 2024) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Sky News: Monday 18 November 2024)
Adil Lateef: The Times Of India on Micrisoft Start: 16 November 2024
"US President Joe Biden has given the green light for Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the US to strike Russia, US officials say.
The move marks a major change in policy for Washington which had refused for months to agree to Kyiv's requests for authorisation to use the ATACMS missiles outside its own borders." (BBC News: 17 November 2024) (my emphasis)
This decision of President Biden, together with the increased pounding of Ukraine by Putin's missiles, has exposed the emptiness of Trump's political boasting that he could, "... quickly end the war in Ukraine".
"Still, every indication is that under Trump 2.0, Washington will forsake NATO, coddle Putin, and end American support for Ukraine — handing a significant victory to Moscow." (Rolling Stone: 14 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Even President Macron of France has stated that Putin simply does not want peace.
"French President Emmanuel Macron (left) said that a major Russian air barrage against Ukraine on Sunday showed that Russian President Vladimir Putin "does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate".
The priority for France was to "equip, support and help Ukraine to resist", Macron told reporters as he prepared to leave Argentina to attend the G20 Summit in Brazil." (The Straits Times: 18 November 2024) (my emphasis)
The upcoming G20 summit in Argentina represents a "Kennedy moment" for the participants when, in 1962, US President John Kennedy confronted USSR president Nikita Kruschev, and forced him to withdraw his intention of stationing nuclear missiles in Cuba.
Fast foreward to 2024, and the question that now arises is :-
"Given the green light for Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the US to strike Russia, does Putin now finally realise that the awakening giant of NATO will retaliate in kind to his recent "blustering" threats against NATO countries?"
"Uncontrollable" Putin is now skating on very thin 'political' ice indeed.
UPDATE: 19 November 2024: 08.52 GMT
Sergey Markov(left) argues that the use of US, French, and British missiles used against Russian forces by Ukraine will constitute an attack against Russia, and that Russia will then attack those countries whose missiles are being used. (Sky News: 19 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Twisting himself into a 'political pretzel', Markov desperately tries to ignore the fact that North Korean troops, and the use of North Korean military equipment, now fighting alongside Putin's troops against Ukraine in both Russia and Ukraine, is somewhat of no consequence in his argument against the use of US, UK, and French missiles, at all.
As stated before, ".... does Putin now finally realise that the awakening giant of NATO will retaliate in kind to his recent "blustering" threats against NATO countries?""
Already, yesterday (18 November 2024), Newsweek reports that,
"An undersea telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Germany across the Baltic Sea was severed, raising suspicions of intentional damage, the NATO member states said. ... This was the first time the cable has broken, said Ari-Jussi Knaapila, CEO of Cinia. The cable did not break without an external impact, a company spokesperson explained, adding that no seismic events—such as earthquakes—could have been responsible for this. .... "Our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors," they added. "Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies." (Newsweek: 19 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Since the election of Trump as the next President of the US, Putin's war in Ukraine has taken on an urgency for him, as evidenced by the fact that 1500 Russian soldiers are being killed and maimed on a daily basis.
"Russian forces suffered an average of around 1,500 dead and injured per day in Ukraine during October, according to the UK's chief of defence staff.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin told the BBC that the Russian people were paying an 'extraordinary price' for Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion, saying that October was the worst month for losses since the conflict began in February 2022." (Daily Mail: 10 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, president-elect Trump continues with his proposals to end the war in Ukraine, proposals that are causing some EU members, and the UK, to have serious concerns about Trump's current attitude towards Ukraine and, particularly, NATO.
"Trump has criticized the Biden administration’s support of Ukraine and promised to end the war “within 24 hours.” While Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy on the call that he supported Ukraine, it’s widely expected that Trump will want to cut off aid to the country and focus on a diplomatic solution to wind down the war. Given that Russia is making swift gains in Ukraine and is currently occupying about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, it’s likely that any settlement would involve conceding a huge chunk of Ukraine to Russia." (MSNBC: 13 November 2024) (my emphasis)
It is therefore no wonder that, as Simon Lewis(left) reports,
"U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured NATO on Wednesday that the Biden administration would bolster its support for Ukraine in the few months before Donald Trump's return as president and would try to strengthen the alliance in that time. … The outgoing U.S. administration would "continue to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine" to ensure it can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a position of strength, he said." (Reuters: 13 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Furthermore, as former UK Foreign Minister William Hague(right) states,
"... It can be naive to say, "Okay ... we're going to have peace [in Ukraine] in 24 hours" ... but that's no good if you're just building up a future [European] war [with Russia]" (Kieran Kelly and James Kilner : Daily Telegraph on MSN: 13 November 2024) (my ephasis)
Fortuitously for Zelensky, the days of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems to be coming to an end since, as reported by Nette Nöstlinger(left), "Germany’s early election is now scheduled for February following the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition last week".
"[Friedrich] Merz (right), who leads the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has criticized Scholz for refusing to deliver long-range missiles to Ukraine. If the Kremlin refuses an ultimatum to stop bombing civilian targets in Ukraine, Merz has previously said, Berlin should deliver German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv.
Based on current polls, Merz is likely to become the country’s next chancellor. Germany’s conservatives are leading by a wide margin on 32 percent while Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is in third with 16 percent" (Politico: 13 November 2024) (my emphasis)
Also, ironically, as reported by Dov Zakhim in a recent interview on WION,
"... Putin also has something to worry about, and that if Putin does not go along with pretty much what Trump asks for, Trump, being Trump, could turn around and essentially say,"You didn't do what I wanted.Therefore I will go ahead and support the Ukrainians far more even than Biden has."
More disconcerting for Putin, as Olivia Christie(left) reports,
"Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if Donald Trump pulls US military aid, a briefing paper prepared for the country's Ministry of Defence has revealed. ... Despite giving up its nuclear arsenal in 1996, Kyiv is still in control of nine operational reactors and has significant expertise on how to build the weapons.
It comes after Trump reportedly backed the shock ultimatum President Volodymyr Zelensky gave NATO last month when he seemed to demand either Ukraine is granted membership of the bloc or they would become a nuclear power." (Daily Mail on MSN.com: 13 November 2024) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zasha Whiteway-Wilkinson: Daily Express: 14 November 2024)
Zelensky is finally throwing Putin's constant threats of 'nuclear war' back into his face by threatening that Ukraine can, and will, become a 'nuclear power'.
"Speaking to the former American President Donald Trump, 78, some weeks ago, the Ukrainian leader declared: 'Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and then they will be our defence."
Is it any wonder that Putin is now trying to saturate Ukraine with missiles, drones, and Korean soldiers, into submission?
Is Putin's fear of a possible 'nuclear assault' from Ukraine now dictating his 'panicked' drone assault on Ukraine?
Has Zelensky finally cornered Putin?
UPDATE : 15 November 2024 : 09.53 (GMT)
In the 2016US presidential election, the Steele Dossier emerged onto the election scene to the utter dismay of the then presidential candidate, Donald Trump.
Among other things, the dossier claimed that :-
Fast forward to 2024 and, in the current war between Putin and Ukraine, US President elect, Donald Trump, seems to be turning into a 'political pretzel' (or, one could say, ".. falling over backwards ..") to "appease", or rather to "politically and subtly give in to", the demands of Putin regarding the lands he has stolen from Ukraine.
"Still, every indication is that under Trump 2.0, Washington will forsake NATO, coddle Putin, and end American support for Ukraine — handing a significant victory to Moscow." (Rolling Stone: 14 November 2024) (my emphasis)
The question that now arises is :-
"Is Putin forcefully 'reminding' Trump of the dossier of compromising materials in his possesion of his, Trump's, behaviours in Moscow pre-2016?
Wedged as he is between a rock and a hard place in his war with Ukraine, Putin will pull out all the diplomatic stops that he can use against Trump.
Is this why Trump now asserts that, ".. Putin's war in Ukraine will take centre stage in his incoming administration on 6 January 2025 according to his plan for ending the war in Ukraine.? (RBC Ukraine: 15 Novembr 2024)
" President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that the first battles between the Ukrainian military and North Korean troops "open a new page in instability in the world" after his defence minister said a "small engagement" had taken place. ... "The first battles with North Korean soldiers open a new page of instability in the world," [Zelensky] said.
He said that Ukraine, acting with the rest of the world, had to "do everything so that this Russian step to expand the war with real escalation fails." (Reuters: 5 November 2024) (my emphasis)
"Beijing's "massive provision" of dual-use goods, as well as diplomatic and economic support, allow Russia to continue its war against Ukraine, the chief of Australia's intelligence agency said on Nov. 6, Reuters reported.
Beijing's support is "killing innocent Ukrainians just as surely as if they were providing artillery ammunition and missiles," Andrew Shearer, the chief of the Office of National Intelligence, said at a conference in Canberra." (The Kyiv Independent: 6 November 2024) (my emphasis)
"Despite the reluctance of Western leaders and societies to recognise it, a global war, the goal of which is to destroy the existing international system and build a new one, is already underway, and even the complete capture of Ukraine by Russia will not stop it. ... Putin's statements that Russia has no interests west of Ukrainian borders are reminiscent of Hitler's famous words before the invasion of Poland that France had nothing to fear, as Germany's borders in the west were forever delineated by the fortifications of the German Western Wall." (RUSI: 5 November 2024) (my emphasis)
"Whether Republican Presidential Donald Trump returns to the office he occupied from 2017 to 2021, or Kamala Harris succeeds the outgoing President Joe Biden on the Democrat ticket, the impact on defence and foreign policy will be significant, for different reasons.
For Trump, it will be a return to strong-man politics and a return to isolationism and protectionism, with the biggest loser likely to be Ukraine as US support for Kyiv, certainly in its current scale, will come to a halt.
Harris has committed to sustaining support for Ukraine as it battles Russia, although 2024 has offered little solace for Ukrainian forces that find themselves, for the most part, on the back foot." (Airforce Technology: 5 November 2024) (my emphasis)
And as the US election nears its end, we now find that Donald Trump has already declared victory over Kamala Harris as he only requires 4 MORE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES, as of now, to re-enter the White House as the next US president.
Putin must be cock-a-hoop in his bunker since he is on the verge of being given 'carte blanche' to do with Ukraine 'as he wishes'.
"After months of gamesmanship and speculation, JD Vance has emerged as Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate and the heir apparent to the America First movement.
With less than two years in Congress under his belt, the first-term senator from Ohio has very little experience in politics, let alone conducting foreign policy. .... Just after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, in fact, Vance bluntly declared,
"I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another." (The Conversation: 16 July 2024)
The tectonic shifts on the brink of 'globally' enveloping the international political world has now taken centre stage in the governments of the world.
The political axis of Putin (Russia), Kim Jon Un (North Korea), Xi Jinping (China), and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Iran), in particular, are now emboldened in carrying forward their political aims by Donald Trump being within a hair's breadth of occupying the White House.
And as Zelensky has said, "The first battles with North Korean soldiers open a new page of instability in the world."
UPDATE : 6 November 2024 GMT 14:41
As reported by Veronika Melkozerova(left), in light of the victory of Trump in winning the 2024 US presidential election,
"Ukrainians reacted with a mix of trepidation and grim resolve to the news that Donald Trump will likely be reelected United States president, after he vowed to “stop wars” in a victorious speech Wednesday morning. ... Trump’s Republican Party blocked aid to Ukraine for more than nine months from October 2023 to April 2024, forcing Kyiv to deplete its wartime budget and leading to the loss of some of its most capable fighters. The mood in Kyiv on Wednesday was grim but resolved." (Politico: 6 November 2024) (my emphasis)
UPDATE: 8 November 2024 : 07.51 (GMT)
And so it begins!!
Putin's nuclear threats and demands, and the Trump and Vance calls for Ukraine to fully capitulate to Putin.
"Donald Trump may call on European and British troops to enforce an 800-mile buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian armies as part of a plan to freeze the war between the two countries.
Details of the plan emerged as Volodymyr Zelensky warned that any attempt to make peace by appeasing Russia would mean “suicide” for Europe.
The US would neither contribute troops to patrol and enforce the resulting buffer zone nor finance its mission.
JD Vance, the vice president-elect, suggested in September that Russia would have to hold on to its current gains as a condition of peace.
The remainder of Ukraine would stay an independent sovereign state and its side of the line would be heavily fortified to prevent a second Russian attack, he [Vance] said.
“The calls of the West to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a country with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, demonstrates the exorbitant adventurism of Western politicians,” he added." (The Telegraph on Microsoft Start: 7 November 2024) (my emphasis)
THE FULL CAPITULATION OF UKRAINE BY THE LEGITIMISING OF PUTIN'S INVASION OF UKRAINE, AND LEGITIMISING PUTIN'S 'THEFT' OF UKRAINE'S LAND, IS THE TRUMP AND VANCE SO-CALLED 'PEACE PROPOSAL'.
As Zelensky warns, "... any attempt to make peace by appeasing Russia would mean “suicide” for Europe."
Putin fining Google for more money than there is in the world indicates that he is now scrambling around like a headless chicken to prevent his ultimate demise.
"A Russian court has fined Google two undecillion roubles - a two followed by 36 zeroes - for restricting Russian state media channels on YouTube.
In dollar terms that means the tech giant has been told to pay $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
Despite being one of the world's wealthiest companies, that is considerably more than the $2 trillion Google is worth.
In fact, it is far greater than the world’s total GDP, which is estimated by the International Monetary Fund to be $110 trillion." (BBC News: 31 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Adding to Putin's 'headless' scramble to prevent his imminent demise,
"As many as 8,000 North Korean troops are in Russia’s Kursk region and are expected to enter combat against Ukraine in the coming days, top US officials announced Thursday.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking alongside Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their South Korean counterparts in Washington, said the troops have been trained “in artillery, UAVs, basic infantry operations, including trench clearing, indicating that they fully intend to use these forces in frontline operations.” (Jennifer Hansler and Haley Britzky: CNN on Microsoft Start: 31 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"Security around the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un, has been tightened recently for fear that he could be assassinated, South Korean intelligence reported.
According to South Korea, GPS systems have been jammed in the area surrounding the dictator and security was increased, along with special equipment to detect drones." (Israel National News: 30 October 2024) (my emphasis)
This near manic nature of Putin's and Kim Jon Un's behaviours is further compounded by the closing days of the US presidential elections in which Donald Trump, himself, joins Putin and Kim Jon Un in behaving manically.
And driving Putin even further into a 'furious' paranoid frenzy,
"The Commission welcomes the consensus reached by the EU and G7 partners to collectively provide loans for €45 billion to support Ukraine’s urgent budgetary, military and reconstruction needs (approximately $50bn). This confirms that the EU and G7 partners fulfil the commitment they made in June at the Apulia G7 Leaders’ Summit. These loans will be serviced and repaid by future flows of extraordinary revenues stemming from the immobilisation of Russian Central Bank assets." (EUREPORTER: 29 October 2024) (my emphasis)
The current 'bromance' between Putin and Kim Jon Un is also having consequences on their relationships with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"The U.S. and South Korea have called on China to use its influence over Russia and North Korea to prevent escalation after Pyongyang sent thousands of troops to Russia to aid Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Beijing has so far stayed quiet.
... It’s unclear if Beijing was informed of Pyongyang’s move in advance, [Victor] Cha (Korean chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies) said. Beijing also could fret over Russia gaining more influence than China over North Korea, Cha said." (AP : 1 November 2024) (my emphasis)
As the US presidential election is now drawing to a rapid close, and Donald Trump seems to be on a fast 'losing streak', Putin and Kim Jon Un find themselves becoming even more isolated and paranoid.
We now await to see how Putin's 'siloviki' and the people of Russia will react to events in the next few days.
Putin's demise in now reaching the final countdown.
The fervent wish of Putin that the 'motly' crew of diverse international political leaders that attended his Kazan BRICS summit would, almost unconditionally, support his war with Ukraine, rather disappointed him.
It is no wonder because :-
[President] Xi [of China] noted that China and Brazil have put forward a peace plan for Ukraine and sought to rally broader international support for it. Ukraine has rejected the proposal. (AP on Manila Bulletin: 25 October 2024) (my emphasis)
While Western allies want New Delhi to be more active in persuading Moscow to end the fighting in Ukraine, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has avoided condemning Russia while emphasizing a peaceful settlement. (ibid: AP on Manila Bulletin)
Addressing the BRICS Plus session, Guterres [UN General Secretary] urged an immediate end to the fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan. “We need peace in Ukraine, a just peace in line with the U.N. Charter, international law and General Assembly resolutions,” he said. (ibid: AP on Manila Bulletin)
Russian President Vladimir Putin faced direct calls to end the Ukraine conflict from some of his closest and most important partners on Wednesday as world leaders gathered in Russia for the second day of the largest diplomatic forum held by the country since it began its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. (Yahoo News: 23 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"The war in Ukraine was mentioned only once in the 43-page document[the Kazan Declaration, a 134-point summary of their agreements], and though Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the event, its wording is a far cry from the Kremlin's preferred rhetoric.
That single paragraph contained none of Russia's usual talking points, insteadurging all parties to act in accordance with United Nations standards — a more neutral statement often used by nations such as China." (Business Insider on Yahoo News: 24 October 2024) (my emphasis)
"On Wednesday, the White House said at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers had arrived in eastern Russia this month and while it remains unclear what they will do, it is a “highly concerning probability” that they will join the fight against Ukraine. ... .. Seoul is not taking this lightly.
On Monday, its Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and urged an “immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops.”(CNN World: 24 October 2024) (my emphasis)
The Kazan Declaration, that 134-point summary of the recent BRICS agreements,ensures that Putin cannot call upon ANY BRICS members to supply him with troops to replace Russian troops killed in the 'Russian meatgrinder' in Ukraine.
Is is any wonder thatBRICS members are extremeley wary of Putin trying to 'rope' them into his war with Ukraine?
North Korean troops in Ukraine have dangerously escalated Putin's war with Ukraine, and has led South Korea to,
"South Korea's president [Yoon Suk Yeol](left: with Zelensky) on Thursday raised the possibility of supplying Ukraine with weapons while stressing that his government "won't sit idle" as North Korea allegedly sends troops to support Russia's aggression toward its neighbor." (Mainichi: 25 October 2024) (my emphasis)
Thisreplacing of fallen Russian soldiers with North Korean troops in his 'meatgrinder' in Ukraine is a sign of desperate panic by Putin that he is losing this war.
Even trying to put on a brave face during questioning at the end of the BRICS summit simply did not work.
Rehashing his 'threadbare' mantra about NATO as a cause of his war with Ukraine simply did not 'butter any parsnips' with the assembled reporters.
