Putin "against the ropes"?

BBC News reported 6 hours ago (current BST: 07.50) that,

"The offices of the International Rescue Committee (IRC) (left) in eastern Ukraine have been closed down by pro-Russian rebels who accused it of spying.

Staff working for the aid organisation were briefly detained as their office in the rebel held city of Donetsk was raided and searched by masked gunmen." (BBC News : 30 April, 2015)

And whilst the offices of the IRC are been raided and searched by 'masked gunmen' in Donetsk,

"European Council President Donald Tusk and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker were united in expressing solidarity with Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko  at a joint press-conference (right) on Monday marking the close of the EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv." (UNIAN Information Agency : 28.04.2015)

Furthermore that,

"In turn, Juncker reconfirmed that the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine is to be implemented on January 1, 2016, and any postponements are “not a good idea.” (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

The confirmation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine comes, however, under the deepening shadow of Putin descending upon Ukrainian troops who are now,

"... [coming] under rebel attack with Grad rockets for the first time since March and Germany’s foreign minister [warning] the situation is deteriorating as a decision looms on extending sanctions against Russia." (Volodymyr Verbyany, Boris Cerni & Misha Savic : Bloomberg Business : April 28, 2015)

Furthermore that,

"The intensity of clashes between government forces and pro-Russian separatists has “increased significantly” in the past 24 hours, with one soldier killed and 14 wounded, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk (left), a Ukrainian military spokesman, told reporters in Kiev on Tuesday." (ibid Bloomerg Business) (my emphasis)

Coupled with Putin's escalation of attacks on Ukrainian forces, thus rendering the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement totally meaningless,

"The United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force........
 .......
   By describing them as an integrated force in the east of the country, the U.S. is putting greater responsibility on Russia for the continued fighting. That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy...." (Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian : Associated Press : 30 April, 2015) (pic. right: Marie Harf and John Kerry)

This "shift in U.S. perceptions" also comes amid,

"Ukraine's leaders [who] believe Russia is preparing a broad attack on their country, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said April 28 as he returned from a summit in Kyiv that coincided with fresh violence in Ukraine's east." (KyivPost : April 29, 2015) (cf. also : Wall Street Journal)


Added to which,

"Ahead of the Eastern Partnership summit in May, Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma (right) of Latvia , which currently holds the Presidency of the EU, warned that if necessary, Article 5 of the NATO treaty will be enforced. We will not go back to the Soviet Union, she told EurActiv in an exclusive interview." (EurActiv : 27/04/2015)

Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' are now being confronted with this 'change in US perception' about his direct involvement in eastern Ukraine, which effectively amounts to the US  saying that Russia IS AT WAR with Ukraine.

Putin's 'siloviki'

 

 
Is it any wonder that he lashed out against those Heads of State who will not be attending the Moscow Victory Day parade?

What is even more indicative of Putin not being able to escape from the 'tangled web of deception' that he has woven around himself over his current war with Ukraine is his rather apopletic lashing out against Poland's,

" ..... decision to bar entry to a group of Night Wolves bikers who were trying to ride [through Poland] to Berlin to mark the 70th anniversary of [the Russian] victory in the Second World War....

Ewa Kopacz, (right) Poland’s prime minister, had earlier warned the bikers might be denied entry, calling their rally a “provocation” possibly intended “to disturb our security, put the Polish people in danger of distress”. (Tom Parfitt : The Telegraph : 28 Apr 2015)

Let us remind ourselves that, "Mr Putin once visited the Night Wolves' Moscow headquarters and has ridden with them on a three-wheeled Harley Davidson trike." (ibid Tom Parfitt)

Adding to Putin's current rage is the fact that,

"Last year, Russian gas giant Gazprom earned seven times less than in 2013, blaming the sharp decline in the value of the ruble and its frictions with Ukraine's gas operator Naftogaz for the massive downturn in profits.(DW : 29.04.2015) 

What is making him even more angry is the fact that the EU is launching anti-trust proceedings against Gazprom that may cost it Euro 7 billion in fines.

Putin is finally throwing caution to the wind.

The "Black Swan Event" abyss into which Putin has launched himself, together with his close circle of kleptocratic 'siloviki',  signifies that he simply has "no exit strategy" from the war that he has started with Ukraine. He simply cannot extricate himself from the tangled web of political deception that he has woven around himself."

He is now confronted by

• confirmation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine
• the United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force that will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy.
• Ukraine's leaders who believe Russia is preparing a broad attack on their country
• the Prime Minister of Latvia  warning that if necessary, Article 5 of the NATO treaty will be enforced if he should think of invading Latvia
• the Polish decision to bar entry to a group of Night Wolves bikers who were trying to ride through Poland to Berlin as a propaganda stunt for Russia and, 
• the EU launching anti-trust proceedings against Gazprom that may cost it Euro 7 billion in fines.

To now maintain his position of power in Russia, Putin has no other alternative strategy but to invade Ukraine.

Putin's 'Black Swan' event into which he has flung himself is an event from which he simply has no escape.

(to be continued)