Has Putin stepped into the abyss of a "Black Swan" event?

"Is Putin's tangled web of deceit now enmeshing him?"

That was the title to my last blog entry.

As if to bring it alive, 14 minutes ago (BST: 17:55) it is learnt that Putin has lifted the ban on Russia supplying Tehran with a sophisticated S300 missile system. (BBC News : 13th April, 2015)

"Delivery of the S-300s was cancelled in 2010 after the UN imposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

But the Russian president gave the go-ahead after Tehran struck an interim deal with world powers to curb nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
 ...........
The Russian defence ministry said it was ready to supply the S-300 equipment "promptly", an official there said, quoted by Interfax." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Yeganeh Torbati informs us, however, that,

".... many U.S. states are likely to stick with their own sanctions on Iran that could complicate any warming of relations between the long-time foes." (Reuters : Mon Apr 13, 2015) (my emphasis)


The question we now have to ask ourselves is,

"Has Putin finally stepped over the edge of the abyss into an unsuspecting Black Swan event into which he is now tumbling?"

Will this singular decision of Putin really bring it home to Germany's foreign minister, Walter Steinmeiser that Putin, with his KGB mind-set, will simply not adhere to the proposals of the Minsk2 agreement?

What now will be the decisions of the Berlin meeting between the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia? Can "the preparation of local elections in the areas occupied by the separatists" in eastern Ukraine now still be considered as a viable option in fulfilling the decisions of the Minsk2 agreement? 

What now will the upcoming G7 meeting of foreign ministers have to discuss? What will Steinmeiser have to offer them? 

Or will the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier, like an ostrich with its head in the sand, stubbornly cling to his belief that Putin is prepared to give up on his designs for Ukraine?

 49 minutes ago (GMT: 18:35) it was reported by Claire Rosemberg that,

"Surging fighting around hotspots in separatist-held east Ukraine put fresh pressure on a shaky ceasefire under review at talks on Monday between the French, German, Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers." (AFP (Yahoo News): 13 April, 2015) (my emphasis)
And it now emerges that,

""[Gazprom head Alexey] Miller (right) has just given a speech, in which he said that the transit contract with Ukraine would not be renewed after 2019,” (UNIAN : 13.04.2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"...all efforts are aimed at implementing the construction of transportation infrastructure in Turkey, on the border of Turkey and Greece, and delivering [gas] to consumers in southeastern and central Europe via this route." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

We now await, with some trepidation, the outcome of today's Berlin meeting, whilst events that can have a direct impact on its outcome could simply not have been foreseen.

(to be continued)