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Friday 6 November 2015

Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine is ending tragically

Today is something of a 'red letter' day for Putin.

Egyptian investigators check debris from crashed Russian jet at the site of the crash in Sinai, Egypt, 01 November 2015.Miracle: Rescuers carry a baby who was pulled from the wreckage of a cargo plane that crashed in South Sudan, killing dozens of peopleIn the wake of the elections that were held in Ukraine last month, the tragedy that occured over the Sinai desert where a plane carrying Russians exploded in mid-air killing (left) all on board, and the Russian cargo plane which crashed shortly after take-off in South Sudan on Wednesday, also killing all on board except for the miraculous surviving of a baby (see pic. on right) and an old woman,

"Chief diplomats [Foreign Ministers] of Germany (Steinmeier), France (Fabius), Russia (Lavrov) and Ukraine (Klimkin) will meet Friday (6/11/2015) in Berlin to agree on next steps in ending the Ukraine conflict, a German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Wednesday, citing heavy weapons withdrawal as one possible measure." (London Stock Exchange : 05 Nov 2015) (my emphasis) (Left to Right: Klimkin, Fabius, Lavrov, Steinmeier)


However,

"International monitors in eastern Ukraine have reported a sharp increase in gunfire along front lines near the airport of the rebel-held city of Donetsk, a senior official with Europe's main security and rights watchdog said on Thursday.

.......... [T]he OSCE monitors' report on Wednesday cited over 150 explosions and multiple bursts of small-arms and anti-aircraft machine-gun fire heard in various areas of the front." (Reuters: Thu Nov 5, 2015) (my emphasis) 

File:Russian BM-21 Grad in Saint Petersburg.JPGNot only has the OSCE monitors "seen many discrepancies in the withdrawal process in east Ukraine" (ibid Reuters) and "of particular worry is that at least one Grad rocket was used in Staromykhailivka ... on Nov. 2" (ibid Reuters)

General Wesley Clark has revealed, however, that,

"..More than half the makeup of OSCE, we were told, were Russian military, who are free to go up to the Ukrainian positions, look at their disposition ...... and maybe not even on the honour code" 


Full video here.

 "[A] Ukrainian security chief said the withdrawal process would stop if truce violations by pro-Russian separatists continue" (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

This sudden spike in gun and rocket fire of Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine follows the blueprint of Russian military strategy, as General Wesley Clark so eloquently explains.

Phase 1: Terrorists
Phase 2: Irregular forces
Phase 3: Peace enforcement
Phase 4:  De-escalation



Today's meeting in Berlin between Lavrov, Steinmeier, Fabius, and Klimkin will be a discussion about the implementation of Phase 4 within the Minsk2 protocols.

This de-escalation has, however, been discussed for months without any ceasefire actually taking place. 

Two days ago,

"Oleksander Turchynov (right), secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, said there had been nine ceasefire violations by the rebels in the past 24 hours alone.
"But unlike the previous provocations, the fire was targeted and of high intensity, resulting in five soldiers being wounded," Turchynov said in a statement." (Reuters: November 4,2015) (my emphasis)

Could this 'last ditch provocation' of Putin's soldiers and rebel forces in eastern Ukraine be due to the fact that, as Yuras Karmanau reports,

In this photo taken on Tuesday, Oct.  27, 2015, people pass by the Soviet Union's flag and symbol center, and a Russian flag, right, painted on..." The fighting has subsided, but Donetsk is quickly sinking into the past — a shabby Soviet-like state of empty streets and deprivation. Huge portraits of Josef Stalin hanging in the city center only reinforce the impression of failure.
.......
Donetsk's people today live in limbo. Effectively, they're no longer part of Ukraine, but Moscow has refused the rebels' pleas to be incorporated into Russia. Ukraine clamped down on the rebel-held parts of the Donetsk region and the neighboring separatist Luhansk region with a choking economic blockade; pensions and social benefits were cut off and business contacts frozen.
.....
For the officials of the Donetsk People's Republic, as the rebels call themselves, it is a tenuous existence. "We have no annual budget. We form a budget for a month," Ekaterina Matyushchenko, the finance minister.." (Associated Press :November 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this the final end of Putin's 'Novorossiya' dream for Ukraine, as the bodies of those Russians who were tragically killed in Sinai and Sudan are taken back to Russia for burial?

(to be continued)



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