Putin and his 'kleptocratic' siloviki have painted themselves into a corner.

In my last blog entry (14 April, 2016) I wrote that,

"Russia has announced it will now form a new paramilitary fighting force, the National Guard, which can effectively be used for non-conventional warfare if need be. This comes as the Russian Federation is heavily involved in ongoing conflicts in both Ukraine and Syria among other countries." (Chris Tomson : AMN : 09/04/2016) (my emphasis)

This National Guard will be directly answerable to Putin himself, and will become a substitute for the current Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine. This para-military force is indistinguishable from the Russian armed forces, as was the case during the Chechen wars, primarily to make their presence less controversial than his Russian soldiers now active in eastern Ukraine.

Rather timely, we now have Gorbachev, emerging from the woodwork, describing in an interview that,

" .... the Ukrainian crisis [is] “an abscess that sends fever through Europe and the whole world” and has called for an urgent meeting between the Russian and American presidents to secure a peaceful settlement to the issue" (RT : 21 Apr, 2016)(my emphasis)

This "abscess", as Gorbachev so directly describes Putin's war with Ukraine, is what Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (right) precisely pointed out at the first formal meeting of the Nato-Russia Council in almost two years, stating that,

 " .... the two sides "disagree on the facts, the narrative and the responsibilities" on Ukraine."

Furthermore that,

"This is Russia destabilising eastern Ukraine, providing support for the separatists, munitions, funding, equipment and also command and control." (BBC News : 20 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Underscoring what Gorbachev said, Putin's forces are playing a rather dangerous game with NATO forces in the Baltic sea.

"Two Russian planes flew close to a US guided missile destroyer almost a dozen times, American officials have said. ..... The [Russian] aircraft did not respond to safety warnings in English or Russian." (BBC News : 13 April 2016)

These provocations from Putin, when viewed against the recent creation of his private army, the so-called National Guard, could indicate that Putin and his kleptocratic clique are beginning to worry over internal dissent and, more particularly, the looming elections in Russia.

We should all cast our minds back to the Moscow apartment bombings in September 1999, when Putin was the then Prime Minister of Russia, and which Alexander Litvinenko (amongst others)  publicly exposed that these bombings,

".. were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB in order to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya" (Wikipedia)

It is also no co-incidence that during the Chechen war, Putin's public approval rating skyrocketed, and in 2000 he was elected president of Russia for the first time. 

Is this the template of actions that Putin is now putting in place to pre-empt any threat to his power?

Is this why he has set up his private army, the National Guard, to create 'false flag' operations in Russia, and to then legitimise any crackdown on the Russian people under the guise of trying to 'weed out terrorists'?

Furthermore, is Putin's new National Guard also being created to draw out his war with Ukraine for a few more years?

As reported by AFP,

"Ukraine's defence minister warned Wednesday it may take years to settle the ex-Soviet republic's pro-Russian separatist conflict that has killed nearly 9,200 people and plunged Moscow's relations with the West to a post-Cold War low.

...

"In my opinion, it will take years," [Stepan] Poltorak (left) told a small group of reporters when asked how long it may take to resolve the war." (Yahoo News (AFP) : April 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko recently stated that,

"No talks on lifting Western sanctions against Russia should take place until Moscow completely withdraws its military presence from Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko said on Thursday.

Any sanctions relief in return for a partial fulfillment by Russia of the conditions of the Minsk peace deal "will be a direct threat to solving the situation in Donbass," the region of eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists are battling Ukrainian government forces." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : April 21, 2016) (my emphasis)

However, will Putin's 'friends' in the EU be willing to extend EU sanctions against Putin when they come up for renewal in July?

                                                  

 

But whilst German industry (right above: Dietrich Moller (Siemens)) and the Austrian president (left above) want EU sanctions against Russia to be removed, both Canada and the US want sanctions against Russia to be increased.

Is it this fact that also underlies Gorbachev's plea for an urgent meeting between Putin and Obama to secure a 'peaceful settlement' of the war in Ukraine?

Or is it the fact that,

"Ukraine's newly-appointed representative to the EU, Mykola Tochytskyi, says he expects Brussels to support the full entry into force of the association agreement" (Martin Banks : News: 19 April 2016), 

and that,

"The Dutch parliament has defeated a motion calling for the country to pull out of a treaty establishing closer European Union ties with Ukraine. " (RFERL : April 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Commission has officially proposed visa liberalisation for Ukraine. The revelant document was published on the website of the institution on April 20. According to it, Kyiv has satisfied all the requirements needed for visa-free travel for Ukrainians across Europe." (UT : Apr. 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

What these developments show is that Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy to stymie Ukraine's economic integration with the EU has failed, notwithstanding his 'covert' political and propaganda suppport of the Dutch right-wing and left-wing during their referendum electioneering.

Events now seem to be closing in upon Putin. 

Not only has he now to let his new National Guard 'watch his back' in Russia itself, his failed attempt to get the Ukraine-EU Trade Pact completely stalled is fast diminishing his options of de-railing the integration of Ukraine into the EU.

And lest we forget, 

"Russia and Ukraine’s presidents discussed the fate of Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko, and the two Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine, in a phone call on Monday." ( Damien Sharkov (right): Newsweek : 4/19/16) 

 

Is an exchange of prisoners in the offing?

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing for a Russian revolt against him?

As the international headlines were recently overwhelmed by the leak of, and analysis of, the Panama Papers, the ceasefire in Ukraine continues to be fragile.

As reported yesterday,

"According to the press center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as of 18:00 local time, Ukrainian positions had been fired on 32 times on Wednesday, Interfax reported.
"During the day the intensity of the use of weapons by Russian militants against Ukrainian soldiers was high in the zone of the ATO [Donbas region] where 32 cases of ceasefire violations were recorded,” the press center reported on its Facebook page.
15 attacks were recorded around Avdiivka, where Ukrainian positions came under mortar and small arms fire" (Uawire : Wednesday, April 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Underlining this continuous ceasefire violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine,

"Russia has announced it will now form a new paramilitary fighting force, the National Guard, which can effectively be used for non-conventional warfare if need be. This comes as the Russian Federation is heavily involved in ongoing conflicts in both Ukraine and Syria among other countries." (Chris Tomson : AMN : 09/04/2016) (my emphasis)

This National Guard will be directly answerable to Putin himself, and will become a substitute for the current Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine. This para-military force is indistinguishable from the Russian armed forces, as was the case during the Chechen wars, primarily to make their presence less controversial than his Russian soldiers now active in eastern Ukraine.

This new para-military force of Putin's also signifies a growing anxiety of Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique about the growing discontent among the Russian people because of their increasing impoverishment as the Russian economy continues on its downward spiral. (cf:

As reported by Jim Atkins,

"The World Bank says 19.2 million from a population of 143.8 million now live in poverty – just over 13% of the population.
The reason, according to the report, is the country is in decline for two main reasons:

• The stranglehold of international sanctions following Russia’s annexation of The Crimea and continuing military action against The Ukraine

• A hit from falling oil prices – Russia is one of the world’s major producers and has seen revenues plunge on the international markets" (iexpats : April 8, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Jasmine C. Lee (NY Times) Lee: April 12, 2016)

Whilst Putin is preparing his new National Guard to suppress the Russian people from revolting against their growing impoverishment, Russian truckers have not yet ended their strike against increased taxes against them.

 

Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian front, Turkey and Ukraine are deepening their economic and scientific co-operation.

Burak Ege Bekdil reports that,

"Turkey and Ukraine have agreed to share technology in order to jointly develop and build satellites, Turkish military officials said....
...
A military official said the memorandum of understanding also involves cooperation to advance aerospace industry work in the future.
“We are pleased to observe that Ukraine is keen to share and develop technology with a NATO member state,” a Turkish procurement official said. “We think we can efficiently cooperate in developing international [NATO] standard systems.” (Defense News : April 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin is setting up a para-military force to keep the Russian people under control as the declining Russian economy continues to impoverish them, the economy of Ukraine, whilst fragile, continues, albeit slowly, to grow.

There are, however, the usual suspects in the EU, who are clamouring for the EU sanctions against Russia to be lifted.

Dietrich Moller (right), the president of Siemes in Russia, has stated that,

“Siemens is not engaged in politics, our company stands for a favorable business environment and removing sanctions that create an adverse business climate,” (RT : 13 Apr, 2016) (my emphasis)


Then there are the Austrians.

"A few days ago Austrian business leader Christoph Leitl (left) criticized anti-Russian sanctions, saying they had proved unsuccessful. Leitl said Russia with its raw materials and Europe with its expertise would complement each other perfectly." (RT : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

The Austrian President, Heinz Fischer (right), also had this to say whilst recently meeting with State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin in Moscow.

"I always say that sanctions are disadvantageous for both sides," Fischer said at Wednesday’s meeting with Russia's State Duma Speaker Sergey Naryshkin. "It is important to find a way to lift them in the near future." (RT : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst German industry and the Austrian president want EU sanctions against Russia to be removed,bothe Canada and the US want sanctions against Russia to be increased.

"Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion (left) says Canada insists that collective sanctions against Russia either be maintained or strengthened, according to portal Macleans." (UT : Mar. 29, 2016) (my emphasis),

whilst,

"The U.S. plans to search the millions of documents leaked from a Panamanian law firm  for information about people who may have helped companies or individuals evade sanctions related to Russia's role in destabilizing Ukraine, a person familiar with the matter said.
......
The [US] Treasury could release a new list [of sanctioned Russian individuals close to Putin] as early as June, which would coincide with the expected timing of the next vote by European Union countries on whether to extend their sanctions against Russia, matching the coordinated timing of the last two expansions." (Alan Katz (right): Bloomberg : April 6, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin may have somewhat tried to cover his tracks by hiding the money that he stole from the Russian people, using his 'kleptocratic cabal' from his days in St. Petersberg in the 1990's, and behind which he now conceals himself as the ultimate owner of all those stolen billions of dollars.

But the tangled web of deception that he has tried to weave is now beginning to unravel itself.

(to be continued)

Putin, the Panama Papers, and the Dutch referendum

This week saw two significant events occur which have both an indirect and a direct bearing on Putin's war with Ukraine.

First there was the release of what has come to be known as The Panama Papers. From Beijing to Riyadh to Moscow to London to Reykjavic to New York; the wealthy of the world have not been sleeping easy since the lair where they squirrelled away their money, in the hope that their financial secrets would be far from the prying eyes of everyone else, has been made public internationally.

This has also led Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left), to invent a new psychological condition called "Putinphobia". As Shivdeep Dhaliwal so succinctly puts it,

"The Kremlin has of course seized the moment  to offer vehement denials, including using the word “Putinphobia”.

Dmitry Peskov, the President’s spokesman said, “It’s clear that the level of Putinphobia has reached a level at which it is impossible to speak well of Russia, and it’s required to speak ill of Russia”.(The Cointelegraph : 2016-04-06) (my emphasis)

But the facts speak for themselves.

The second event is the outcome of the Dutch referendum that ostensibly was about the Dutch ratification of Ukraine's Trade Agreement with the EU, but rather was about more broader issues, specifically about the EU itself.

As Joris Luyendijk explains,

"What did these voters mean, and does their vote represent a clear repudiation of the European project – as was quickly claimed by both the anti-EU campaigner Geert Wilders and the Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage?" (The Guardian : Friday 8 April 2016) (my emphasis) (left: Farage and Wilders)

Looking at the initial instigators of this Dutch referendum we discover a rather strange and motley crew.

"The organisers of the Dutch referendum were highly controversial. The referendum was the initiative of GeenStijl (“No Style”), an immensely successful blog whose outlook and methods are a mix of Charlie Hebdo, Jackass and Gawker.

It was joined by a prominent young philosopher called Thierry Baudet, who recently published a book exploring “female masturbation, sexual emancipation, and the crisis of masculinity in modern times”.

This motley crew of attention-seekers campaigned alongside the far left Socialist party – currently polling better than the Social Democrats. And of course with Wilders, who is currently under investigation for incitement after asking a crowd of supporters whether they “wanted more or fewer Moroccans” (ibid Joris Luyendijk) (my emphasis)

What BOTH of these events have done for Ukraine is to galvanise Poroshenko and his government into accelerating in dealing with the pressing issue of 'corruption' in Ukraine. 

No longer can they now drag their feet in rooting out the burden of the rampant corruption in Ukraine that the Maidan protestors were clamouring for and which, to date, has led to many deaths in Ukraine's war with Putin's Russia, besides those who were gunned down at Maidan.
 

 

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at the 'No' vote in this referendum but, as the old saying goes, "He Who Laughs Last, Laughs the Best'.

The sting in the tail for Putin is the fact that 'corruption' in Ukraine now has to be truly rooted out, and the Ukrainian public must be able to see that this is being done.

Added to which,

"The Nato-Russia Council will convene in the next two weeks to discuss the peace process in eastern Ukraine, as well as the situation in Afghanistan.

But Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) warned that it was not a "return to business as usual".

Nato announced last month that an extra armoured brigade would be deployed in eastern Europe, meaning a total of three will be there on a continuous basis. (BBC : 8 April 2016) (my emphasis)

But let me leave you with these facts:

(to be continued)

How much longer can Putin last?

"In Russia's war against Ukraine, the Kremlin assumes time is on its side, expecting Ukraine's economy to deteriorate, and hoping and working for the collapse of the government. But there is one area where they must know time is not on their side. It is in the military arena where — with US and other allied assistance — time is on Ukraine’s side and working against Russia."

So wrote Evelyn N. Farkas (left) in Defense News. (Defense News : April 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is also rather interesting that, as Isabela Cocoli reports,

"The White House says the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $335 million in security assistance.
The new aid was announced Thursday after a meeting between U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Washington." (VOA : April 1st, 2016)

This US aid rather underscores Evelyn N. Farkas's contention that in the military arena, time is on the side of Ukraine.

Putin and his military are well aware of this. It is therefore no co-incidence that, as reported by ATO,

"The militants launched 72 attacks on the Ukrainian troops over the past day. The tensest situation was observed in Avdiyivka [18km north of Donetsk]. Here, the positions of our troops came under 120mm and 82mm mortar fire," reads the statement.
In addition, the militants used the weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements to fire at Luhanske (59km north-east of Donetsk), Leninske (22km east of Mariupol), Mayorske (45km north of Donetsk), Zaitseve (67km north-north-east of Donetsk)." (Ukrinform : Sunday 03 April, 2016)

And where was the OSCE, now chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier? (below left with Putin at their recent meeting in Moscow March 23, 2016)

On 1st April, 2016, it issued the following report :

"The SMM continued to observe a high number of ceasefire violations in Donetsk region. In Luhansk region the SMM recorded a higher number of ceasefire violations than the previous day. The SMM followed up on reports of shelling. It facilitated the safe passage of civilians between Ukrainian Armed Forces and “LPR” checkpoints in Luhansk region. The Mission encountered freedom of movement restrictions in areas not controlled by the Government, including in border areas*..." (OSCE :  1 April 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In light of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine accelerating their ceasefire violations, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is now calling for an Armed OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine.

"One of the most likely and acceptable options to resolve this problem is an international security component in the form of an armed OSCE mission. For this we definitely need an OSCE decision, extension of the mandate, and we are now effectively conducting negotiations with our partners to ensure this security component," the president said at a press conference in Washington." (Interfax-Ukraine : 02.04.2016)

One can imagine Walter Steinmeier saying to himself, "Over My Dead Body will we arm an OSCE mission while I am Chairman of the OSCE", with Putin smiling in the background.

It is not only on the military front that Putin is having to rethink his strategy against Ukraine, but also on the Ukrainian economic front.


Whilst Putin is having to slash his space funding amid his mounting economic woes, and millions more Russians are now living in poverty thanks to his obscene 'kleptocratic' siloviki and hangers-on, 

"Economic growth [in Ukraine] is expected to return in 2016 as private consumption and fixed investment begin to recover. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation as demanded by the IMF bailout will continue to limit growth prospects and the frozen conflict in the east is still clouding the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy growing 1.3% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees the country accelerating to a 2.7% expansion. (Focus Economics : March 8, 2016)

Added to which, the deadlock in the Ukrainian Parliament seems to be on the verge of being resolved.

"During the joint meeting of the two factions on March 31, the Poroshenko Bloc said it would meet the conditions set up by Samopomich in exchange for their signatures under the new coalition agreement.
With Samopomich, the coalition would reach 248 members." (Olga Rudenko : Kyiv Post :
Mar. 31, 2016)

This will pave the way for the release of IMF funding that is currently held on hold.

Furthermore, Ukraine is expanding and consolodating its economic ties with Turkey, as reported by Kama Mustafayeva.

"According to Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah, Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, signed a joint declaration to cooperate on politics, economy, education and tourism in Ankara at a high-level strategic council meeting." (Natural Gas Europe : March 11th, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Hannah Thoburn (below) also reports,

"Turkey and Ukraine now find themselves united by opposition to Russia’s belligerence, as well as by their mutual need to find new markets for the products and industries that Russia now declines to allow within its borders. They are also bound in their concern for Crimea’s Tatars." (Hudson Institute : March 23rd, 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, one of Putin's closest allies in Africa, President Zuma of South Africa, who signed a controversial and secretive deal with Putin  for Russia's Rosatom to build nuclear reactors in South Africa, has been found guilty of breaking the South African constitution to embelish his private estate at Nkandla to the tune of £13 million stolen from state coffers. This theft elicited from him a public apology but, like Putin the 'kleptocrat', he simply ignored demands for his resignation. (cf. also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBucRobI4rM)

 And in Brazil,

"Brazil's largest party announced on Tuesday it was leaving President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition and pulling its members from her government, a departure that sharply raises the odds she could be impeached in a matter of months [on charges of corruption]." (Anthony Boadle : Reuters : Wed Mar 30, 2016)

It would seem that Russia, South Africa, and Brazil, members of the BRICS group of countries, have corrupt presidents that, with the exception of Putin himself, are being hauled before their publics under the Rule of Law.

Putin, the 'Teflon Czar', still survives unscathed because there is no Rule of Law in Russia. He IS the law.

(to be continued)