How much longer can Putin last?

"In Russia's war against Ukraine, the Kremlin assumes time is on its side, expecting Ukraine's economy to deteriorate, and hoping and working for the collapse of the government. But there is one area where they must know time is not on their side. It is in the military arena where — with US and other allied assistance — time is on Ukraine’s side and working against Russia."

So wrote Evelyn N. Farkas (left) in Defense News. (Defense News : April 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

It is also rather interesting that, as Isabela Cocoli reports,

"The White House says the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $335 million in security assistance.
The new aid was announced Thursday after a meeting between U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Washington." (VOA : April 1st, 2016)

This US aid rather underscores Evelyn N. Farkas's contention that in the military arena, time is on the side of Ukraine.

Putin and his military are well aware of this. It is therefore no co-incidence that, as reported by ATO,

"The militants launched 72 attacks on the Ukrainian troops over the past day. The tensest situation was observed in Avdiyivka [18km north of Donetsk]. Here, the positions of our troops came under 120mm and 82mm mortar fire," reads the statement.
In addition, the militants used the weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements to fire at Luhanske (59km north-east of Donetsk), Leninske (22km east of Mariupol), Mayorske (45km north of Donetsk), Zaitseve (67km north-north-east of Donetsk)." (Ukrinform : Sunday 03 April, 2016)

And where was the OSCE, now chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier? (below left with Putin at their recent meeting in Moscow March 23, 2016)

On 1st April, 2016, it issued the following report :

"The SMM continued to observe a high number of ceasefire violations in Donetsk region. In Luhansk region the SMM recorded a higher number of ceasefire violations than the previous day. The SMM followed up on reports of shelling. It facilitated the safe passage of civilians between Ukrainian Armed Forces and “LPR” checkpoints in Luhansk region. The Mission encountered freedom of movement restrictions in areas not controlled by the Government, including in border areas*..." (OSCE :  1 April 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In light of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine accelerating their ceasefire violations, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is now calling for an Armed OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine.

"One of the most likely and acceptable options to resolve this problem is an international security component in the form of an armed OSCE mission. For this we definitely need an OSCE decision, extension of the mandate, and we are now effectively conducting negotiations with our partners to ensure this security component," the president said at a press conference in Washington." (Interfax-Ukraine : 02.04.2016)

One can imagine Walter Steinmeier saying to himself, "Over My Dead Body will we arm an OSCE mission while I am Chairman of the OSCE", with Putin smiling in the background.

It is not only on the military front that Putin is having to rethink his strategy against Ukraine, but also on the Ukrainian economic front.


Whilst Putin is having to slash his space funding amid his mounting economic woes, and millions more Russians are now living in poverty thanks to his obscene 'kleptocratic' siloviki and hangers-on, 

"Economic growth [in Ukraine] is expected to return in 2016 as private consumption and fixed investment begin to recover. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation as demanded by the IMF bailout will continue to limit growth prospects and the frozen conflict in the east is still clouding the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy growing 1.3% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees the country accelerating to a 2.7% expansion. (Focus Economics : March 8, 2016)

Added to which, the deadlock in the Ukrainian Parliament seems to be on the verge of being resolved.

"During the joint meeting of the two factions on March 31, the Poroshenko Bloc said it would meet the conditions set up by Samopomich in exchange for their signatures under the new coalition agreement.
With Samopomich, the coalition would reach 248 members." (Olga Rudenko : Kyiv Post :
Mar. 31, 2016)

This will pave the way for the release of IMF funding that is currently held on hold.

Furthermore, Ukraine is expanding and consolodating its economic ties with Turkey, as reported by Kama Mustafayeva.

"According to Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah, Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, signed a joint declaration to cooperate on politics, economy, education and tourism in Ankara at a high-level strategic council meeting." (Natural Gas Europe : March 11th, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Hannah Thoburn (below) also reports,

"Turkey and Ukraine now find themselves united by opposition to Russia’s belligerence, as well as by their mutual need to find new markets for the products and industries that Russia now declines to allow within its borders. They are also bound in their concern for Crimea’s Tatars." (Hudson Institute : March 23rd, 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, one of Putin's closest allies in Africa, President Zuma of South Africa, who signed a controversial and secretive deal with Putin  for Russia's Rosatom to build nuclear reactors in South Africa, has been found guilty of breaking the South African constitution to embelish his private estate at Nkandla to the tune of £13 million stolen from state coffers. This theft elicited from him a public apology but, like Putin the 'kleptocrat', he simply ignored demands for his resignation. (cf. also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBucRobI4rM)

 And in Brazil,

"Brazil's largest party announced on Tuesday it was leaving President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition and pulling its members from her government, a departure that sharply raises the odds she could be impeached in a matter of months [on charges of corruption]." (Anthony Boadle : Reuters : Wed Mar 30, 2016)

It would seem that Russia, South Africa, and Brazil, members of the BRICS group of countries, have corrupt presidents that, with the exception of Putin himself, are being hauled before their publics under the Rule of Law.

Putin, the 'Teflon Czar', still survives unscathed because there is no Rule of Law in Russia. He IS the law.

(to be continued)