As in the case at the beginning of Spring in 2015,
"The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has dismissed any likelihood of a war with Ukraine, describing it as an "apocalyptic scenario".
Speaking on Russian television, Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 24 February 2015) (my emphasis)
30 Apr 2016)
"Russian de-occupation should include eliminating the impact of Russian propaganda, reconciliation of all the people in Ukraine's Donbass region and the withdrawal of all Russian agents from the area." (VoA : April 30, 2016) (my emphasis)
And whilst that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is threatening Sweden if it ever tries to join NATO, (cf. also: UT : Apr. 29, 2016)
" ... Former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev (left with Bill Clinton) accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of illegally invading Crimea and fomenting war in the Donbas region." (UT : Apr. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)
Which brings us back to Putin's denials of a year ago, as well as his 'weasel-mouthed' words about there being no Russian troops in the Donbas.
"Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine" (ibid BBC News : February 2015)
It is therefore no wonder that, as Brian Stewart (right) writes,
"You can tell tension has risen to a very serious state of jitters when NATO feels the need for Cold War-style hotlines with Moscow to prevent sudden, armed clashes in eastern Europe.
...
The Ukrainian government, meanwhile, has called up another 10,000 soldiers to add to the 250,000 now under arms and appears worried the Russian-backed rebel armies are preparing for a major summer offensive.
...
That view is not only shared but expanded upon by Poland, Ukraine's neighbour, which insists Moscow also has hostile intent against itself as well as other NATO members in the Baltic region." (CBC NEWS: Apr 30, 2016) (my emphasis)
And let us not forget the internal Russian preparations that Putin is making to confront any tide of rebellion against him by the Russian people themselves.
"The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has dismissed any likelihood of a war with Ukraine, describing it as an "apocalyptic scenario".
Speaking on Russian television, Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 24 February 2015) (my emphasis)
At this time, a year ago, the Ukrainian forces were weak and disorganised. Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies attacked Debatltseve with overwhelming force, driving out the Ukrainian forces.
Things have, however, changed. The Ukrainian army has, during the past year, received training from the US, Canada, Britain, and many other EU states, and is no longer the weak army that Putin confronted in February of last year.
And yet Putin and his armed forces are once again repeating their strategy of a year ago.
As reported by the OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine,
"The SMM continued to record a high number of ceasefire violations in
Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It continued to follow up on civilian
fatalities sustained by shelling in Olenivka and reports
on people wounded in the incident. The Mission found no information to
confirm media reports about casualties resulting from a trip wire
explosion in Stanytsia Luhanska. The SMM observed the presence of
numerous weapons in violation of the respective withdrawal lines on both
sides of the contact line." (OSCE : 28 April 2016) (my emphasis)
Even Angela Merkel,
"... said on Sunday that a
ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was not stable, adding that she and U.S.
President Barack Obama had discussed ways to ensure the Minsk peace deal
is implemented." (Andreas Rinke : Reuters :
Is this yet another example of Putin ramping up fervent Russian war-nationalism against Ukraine as a protection mechanism for himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'?
"According to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, a train
with military equipment, including three tanks, two 122mm Grad
multiple-launch rocket system, two Ural military trucks and 160 tons of
gas oil, has arrived to the railway station of Debaltseve, a town which saw intense fighting during January-February 2015." (UT : Apr. 17, 2016)
"According to our information, Russia has deployed about 40,000 troops
near the border with Ukraine. In the meantime, these people stay within
the territory of Russia. NATO officials have confirmed this
information.
However, it is difficult to say exactly how many Russian
servicemen are fighting in Donbas. According to recent data, three and
four brigades of Russian regular forces are now stationed in eastern
Ukraine. It means that about 10,000 Russian servicemen are involved in
the hostilities", (UT : Apr. 18, 2016) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, the current German president of the OSCE, is once again pushing foreward Putin's agenda by setting up Berlin talks that,
" .... would look to the preparation of local elections in eastern Ukraine with
“concrete proposals now on the table” alongside “interesting
re-stabilization proposals” from the Organization for the Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OECD)." (Japan Times : May 1, 2016) (my emphasis)
With approximately 10,000 Russian soldiers in Donbas, how can 'free and fair' elections be held in eastern Ukraine?
As Isabela Cocoli reports,
"A top Ukrainian official said that elections in eastern Ukraine will be
possible only after Ukraine's sovereignty is renewed in the region and
Russia's presence is eliminated in those territories.
....
In a broader sense, deputy speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Oksana Syroyid said,"Russian de-occupation should include eliminating the impact of Russian propaganda, reconciliation of all the people in Ukraine's Donbass region and the withdrawal of all Russian agents from the area." (VoA : April 30, 2016) (my emphasis)
And whilst that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is threatening Sweden if it ever tries to join NATO, (cf. also: UT : Apr. 29, 2016)
" ... Former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev (left with Bill Clinton) accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of illegally invading Crimea and fomenting war in the Donbas region." (UT : Apr. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)
Which brings us back to Putin's denials of a year ago, as well as his 'weasel-mouthed' words about there being no Russian troops in the Donbas.
"Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine" (ibid BBC News : February 2015)
It is therefore no wonder that, as Brian Stewart (right) writes,
"You can tell tension has risen to a very serious state of jitters when NATO feels the need for Cold War-style hotlines with Moscow to prevent sudden, armed clashes in eastern Europe.
...
The Ukrainian government, meanwhile, has called up another 10,000 soldiers to add to the 250,000 now under arms and appears worried the Russian-backed rebel armies are preparing for a major summer offensive.
...
That view is not only shared but expanded upon by Poland, Ukraine's neighbour, which insists Moscow also has hostile intent against itself as well as other NATO members in the Baltic region." (CBC NEWS: Apr 30, 2016) (my emphasis)
And let us not forget the internal Russian preparations that Putin is making to confront any tide of rebellion against him by the Russian people themselves.
(to be continued)
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