Putin's "spoiling for a fight" is simply to protect himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'

As in the case at the beginning of Spring in 2015,

 "The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has dismissed any likelihood of a war with Ukraine, describing it as an "apocalyptic scenario".
Speaking on Russian television, Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 24 February 2015) (my emphasis)

At this time, a year ago, the Ukrainian forces were weak and disorganised. Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies attacked Debatltseve with overwhelming force, driving out the Ukrainian forces.

Things have, however, changed. The Ukrainian army has, during the past year, received training from the US, Canada, Britain, and many other EU states, and is no longer the weak army that Putin confronted in February of last year.

And yet Putin and his armed forces are once again repeating their strategy of a year ago. 

As reported by the OSCE mission in eastern Ukraine,

"The SMM continued to record a high number of ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It continued to follow up on civilian fatalities sustained by shelling in Olenivka and reports on people wounded in the incident. The Mission found no information to confirm media reports about casualties resulting from a trip wire explosion in Stanytsia Luhanska. The SMM observed the presence of numerous weapons in violation of the respective withdrawal lines on both sides of the contact line." (OSCE : 28 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Even Angela Merkel,

"... said on Sunday that a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was not stable, adding that she and U.S. President Barack Obama had discussed ways to ensure the Minsk peace deal is implemented." (Andreas Rinke : Reuters : Sun Apr 24, 2016)

Why are Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine ramping up their ceasefire violations?

Is it any co-incidence that this is happening on the eve of the Russian,

".... Orthodox Easter Sunday and covers holidays that include labour day on May 1 and the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany during World War II marked on May 9."? (Aljazeera : 30 Apr 2016)

Is this yet another example of Putin ramping up fervent Russian war-nationalism against Ukraine as a protection mechanism for himself and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'? 

"According to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, a train with military equipment, including three tanks, two 122mm Grad multiple-launch rocket system, two Ural military trucks and 160 tons of gas oil, has arrived to the railway station of Debaltseve, a town which saw intense fighting during January-February 2015." (UT : Apr. 17, 2016)

 

Lauren Goodrich (left), Stratfor Senior Eurasia Analyst, has also revealed that,

"According to our information, Russia has deployed about 40,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. In the meantime, these people stay within the territory of Russia. NATO officials have confirmed this information. 

However, it is difficult to say exactly how many Russian servicemen are fighting in Donbas. According to recent data, three and four brigades of Russian regular forces are now stationed in eastern Ukraine. It means that about 10,000 Russian servicemen are involved in the hostilities", (UT : Apr. 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, the current German president of the OSCE, is once again pushing foreward Putin's agenda by setting up Berlin talks that,

" .... would look to the preparation of local elections in eastern Ukraine with “concrete proposals now on the table” alongside “interesting re-stabilization proposals” from the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe (OECD)." (Japan Times : May 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

With approximately 10,000 Russian soldiers in Donbas, how can 'free and fair' elections be held in eastern Ukraine? 

As Isabela Cocoli reports,

"A top Ukrainian official said that elections in eastern Ukraine will be possible only after Ukraine's sovereignty is renewed in the region and Russia's presence is eliminated in those territories.

....

In a broader sense, deputy speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Oksana Syroyid said,

"Russian de-occupation should include eliminating the impact of Russian propaganda, reconciliation of all the people in Ukraine's Donbass region and the withdrawal of all Russian agents from the area." (VoA : April 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is threatening Sweden if it ever tries to join NATO, (cf. also: UT : Apr. 29, 2016)

 

" ... Former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev (left with Bill Clinton) accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of illegally invading Crimea and fomenting war in the Donbas region." (UT : Apr. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Putin's denials of a year ago, as well as his 'weasel-mouthed' words about there being no Russian troops in the Donbas.

"Mr Putin denied that Russian troops were involved in the conflict but he stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine" (ibid BBC News : February 2015)

It is therefore no wonder that, as Brian Stewart (right) writes,

"You can tell tension has risen to a very serious state of jitters when NATO feels the need for Cold War-style hotlines with Moscow to prevent sudden, armed clashes in eastern Europe.
...
The Ukrainian government, meanwhile, has called up another 10,000 soldiers to add to the 250,000 now under arms and appears worried the Russian-backed rebel armies are preparing for a major summer offensive. 
...
That view is not only shared but expanded upon by Poland, Ukraine's neighbour, which insists Moscow also has hostile intent against itself as well as other NATO members in the Baltic region." (CBC NEWS:  Apr 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

And let us not forget the internal Russian preparations that Putin is making to confront any tide of rebellion against him by the Russian people themselves.

(to be continued)