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Wednesday 22 June 2016

Putin's war with Ukraine ... The British referendum to-morrow

In 2014 an interesting poll indicated just which of the EU and NATO countries were willing to risk conflict with Putin's Russia as Putin ripped up the rulebook of International Law with his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, and with Russian armaments and thousands of Russian soldiers pouring over the Russia/Ukrainian border to support his rebel Russian proxies in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.


Furthermore, at the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, David Cameron, British Prime Minister, stated that,

"....What President Putin is doing is indefensible and wrong. While we meet here in Newport, a package of sanctions is being finalised in Brussels that will further increase the economic cost to Russia for its behaviour.

We stand firmly behind Ukraine's right to make its own decisions, not to have them dictated by Russian tanks rolling over the border " (Video : Raf Sanchez, Harriet Alexander and Andrew Marszal : The Telegraph : 05 Sep 2014) (my emphasis)


Also on Sept. 5- 2014, we had the,

" Minsk [1] Protocol, an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014. It was signed after extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The agreement, which followed multiple previous attempts to stop fighting in the Donbass, implemented an immediate ceasefire. 

It failed to stop fighting in Donbass." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Move foreward to June of 2016 and we have :
  • UN Human Rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani says that her organization has got credible reports on troops and heavy weapons arriving from Russia to eastern Ukraine.. (UNIAN : 05 June 2016) (my emphasis)
  • In Donetsk region, the SMM observed more ceasefire violations on 18 June compared to the previous day, but fewer on 19 June compared to each 17 and 18 June. (OSCE : 19 June 2016)
  • Germany's Putinversteher Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, Italy's Premier Matteo Renzi, and the French Senate, amongst other EU politicians, are now calling for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be removed bit by bit ... irrespective of the call for the Minsk2 protocols to be fully observed before such sanctions are removed ...
  •  US prospective Republican Presidential candidate, Donald Trump, has just hired Paul Manafort to head his campaign, the Paul Manafort who, "In the 2000s, [ ] decided to try the forces not only in the other party, but in another country, and worked in the Ukraine with the head of “Party of regions”, and subsequently Prime Minister and President Viktor Yanukovych." (The Newspapers :21.06.2016) (my emphasis)

What has changed since 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and now has more than 10,000 active Russian soldiers in the Donbas?

On Sunday, 19 June 2016 I wrote that,

Andrius Sytas also reported that,

"Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary and Bulgaria are among EU states skeptical that sanctions should be extended, diplomats said, facing off against Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states. ( Reuters : Thu May 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

If, during the upcoming Brexit referendum in Britain, the British public vote to leave the EU, this will not only undermine Angela Merkel, who is less conciliatory towards Putin than Steinmeier, but will also mean that Putin's 'friends' in the EU will be in the driving seat when the EU's sanctions against him come up for renewal in July of this year."

Since David Cameron declared in 2014 that,

"We stand firmly behind Ukraine's right to make its own decisions, not to have them dictated by Russian tanks rolling over the border",

NATO members Poland and the Baltic states, in particular, are concerned by Putin's military build-up on the Ukrainian and Baltic borders, as well as within the Donbas territory of eastern Ukraine, where there are more than 10,000 active Russian soldiers.

The British referendum vote to-morrow is a critical juncture in the possible outcome of the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Putin himself is anxiously praying that the vote goes the way of those in Britain who wish to leave the EU.

Such a result will open the door to Putin and his EU 'comrades' to have the EU sanctions against him stealthily lifted.

Will it also embolden him to test the nerve of NATO by invading one of the Baltic states?

As reported by ,

"RUSSIA “is mobilising for war” and could demolish the Baltic states “within 60 hours”, according to a terrifying new security report.

Hundreds more troops could be pumped into Eastern Europe to bolster NATO forces amid fears that Russia is gearing-up for a large-scale attack."

The shocking report, published by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), warns the Kremlin is not simply “modernising its military”, it is preparing for war." (Daily Express: Thu, Jun 16, 2016)

 Will Putin step into the abyss on a Brexit success?

(to be continued)













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