Putin diplomatically duping Obama, Kerry, Merkel, and Hollande. Will they fall for it?

Since the Brexit result on the 23 June, Putin has had a flurry of calls to President Obama, Angela Merkel, and Franscoise Hollande.

The first of these calls was on the 6th July, when Putin,

"... discussed Syria, Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with U.S. President Barack Obama" (ABC News (AP) : Jul 6, 2016)

Putin argued with President Obama that,

"[the Ukrainian] government needs to follow the 2015 Minsk peace deal by launching a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there." (ABC News (The Associated Press MOSCOW): Jul 6, 2016)

Then on July 7th we have US Vice-President John Kerry and Victoria Nuland rushing to Kiev to pressure Poroshenko, and urging him to,

"... [comply] with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.” (Vladimir Socor : Jamestown Foundation :July 8, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Vladimir Socor explains,

""Ukraine [is being pressured to] make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not. The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia." (ibid Vladimir Socor) (my emphasis)

Rather disconcertingly, Socor also writes that,

"Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States." (ibid Vladismir Socor) (my emphasis

Then, hot on the heels of the Kerry and Nuland visit to Kiev, on the 13th July Putin had a rather cosy Skype tête-à-tête with Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande, MINUS Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine.

During this cosy threesome Skype tête-à-tête, Putin,

"... asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande to use their influence to help prevent any escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement." (Polina Devitt : Yahoo (Reuters) : 13 July 2016)

Central to Putin's call for Merkel and Hollande to 'influence Poroshenko' was the same argument that he used with President Obama viz. that Poroshenko should "launch a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there".

This diplomatic flurry between the 6th and 13th of July between Putin and President Obama, Putin and John Kerry and Victoria Nuland, and Putin and Merkel and Hollande, raises the critical question whether Ukraine is being sold down the river simply because,

• President Barack Obama has less than three months in office as the President of the United States and is now focussed on his legacy, and because
• Brexit has thrown the EU into a state of turmoil. In the words of Hollande, "The British vote poses a grave test for Europe, which must show solidity and strength in its response to the economic and financial risks," Hollande said. (The Local (AFP) :  24 Jun 2016) (my emphasis)

And if it were not enough that Poroshenko now has to contend with the pressure being put on him by this diplomatic flurry, Boris Johnson (left) has become the newly appointed Foreign Secretary of the UK who, on May 9th of this year, proclaimed that,

  

"... during questions and answers after a speech on Europe, it transpired that for Johnson it was not Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea and its military aggression in Eastern Ukraine that had caused "real trouble", but the EU's actions.

 "If you want an example of EU foreign policymaking on the hoof and the EU's pretensions to running a defence policy that have caused real trouble, then look at what has happened in Ukraine, " he told reporters." (UT : Jul. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)
The delight of Putin at Boris Johnson becoming the UK foreign Secretary is best illustrated by,

"The head of the Russian State Duma's foreign affairs committee, Aleksey Pushkov (right), [tweeting] that Mr Johnson's predecessor, Philip Hammond, has "painful anti-Russian complexes" that he hopes Mr Johnson does not share." (BBC News : 14 July, 2016)

Also recall that,

"Boris Johnson has praised Vladimir Putin's "ruthless clarity" in backing President Assad to remove "maniac" Isis jihadists from Palmyra." (Joe Churcher: The Independent :Monday 28 March 2016) (cf also Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016)

Even more disconcertingly, Boris Johnson stated in 2015 that,

"This is the time to set aside our Cold War mindset. It is just not true that whatever is good for Putin must automatically be bad for the West." (Daily Telegraph :  06 Dec 2015)

Before the UK referendum on the 23rd June,

"Pavel Polityuk wrote about the concerns of Kiev should Britain vote to leave the EU.

"Politicians in Kiev worry that a vote by Britain to leave the European Union would weaken the EU's support for Ukraine and undermine its resolve to stand up to Russia.
.....
Britain has pushed for the EU to renew sanctions on Russia imposed after the Crimea annexation, but other EU countries want them lifted, so if the country leaves the bloc, that could soften the EU stance, Ukrainian politicians say.
 
"Brexit will seriously compromise the unity of the EU on the issue of sanctions," [Serhiy] Leshchenko (right) said. "The EU will lose one of the main lobbyists for sanctions against Russia." (Reuters : Fri Jun 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

These concerns of Serhiy Leshchenko are further amplified by the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeir, and Italian PM Matteo Renzi, have recently increased the call for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be, if not completely rescinded, then alleviated. (Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016) 

Poroshenko is thus been squeezed on both the diplomatic and the EU sanctions front.

The only relief that Poroshenko is receiving from these pressures now being exterted upon him is coming from Canada.

“Canada will always stand by Ukraine,” [Canadian Prime Minister] Trudeau told Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko after the two leaders signed a free-trade agreement in an opulent, Soviet-era hall in the presidential palace.
...
Trudeau complimented the Ukrainian government for “extremely important and difficult steps” it had made in meeting its obligations under last year’s Minsk II peace agreement before condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its failure to abide by the Minsk accord, which was meant to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbass region." (Edmonton Journal : July 12, 2016) (my emphasis)
 
Prime Minister Trudeau seems the only one to recognise, as Poroshenko stated on July 11th, that,

"..Kiev has fully implemented the Minsk agreements, the RBC news agency reported.

The Ukrainian side has fulfilled 95 percent of the political obligations and 100 percent of the security requirements in the agreements, Poroshenko was quoted as saying by Interfax Ukraine during a news conference which followed his talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau." (Maria Evdokimova : Moscow Times : Jul. 11 2016) (my emphasis)

 Which really begs the question,

"Why is President Obama, Vice-President John Kerry, Victoria Nuland, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and President Franscoise Hollande, suddenly batting for Putin against Poroshenko?"

(to be continued)