Is Putin on the brink?

In May of 2014, Paul Gregory (left) reported that,

"Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results

Quoting from that report [president-sovet.ru ]

“In Crimea, according to various indicators, 50-60% voted for unification with Russia with a voter turnout (yavka) of 30-50%.” This leads to a range of between 15 percent (50% x 30%) and 30 percent (60% x 50%) voting for annexation. The turnout in the Crimean district of Sevastopol, according to the Council, was higher: 50-80%." (Forbes : May 5, 2014) (my emphasis)

To make sure no one misses this:

"Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor." (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July, 2016, and we have Putin,

".... signing into law the so-called Yarovaya Amendment to Russia’s anti-extremism laws. The amendment assigns sweeping new powers to security forces, beefs up controls of social media and telephone calls, and broadens the definition of extremism crimes.
......
The definition of extremism now includes “providing false information about historical facts and events.” Recent convictions are of “extremists,” who question the legality of the Crimean annexation and who believe that Donbass “separatists” are directed by the Russian state." (ibid Paul Gregory: Forbes Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

The FIRST casualty of war is TRUTH. (Aeschylus Greek tragic dramatist (525 BC - 456 BC) )

Which puts into stark perspective the current buildup of Putin's forces on the Ukraine-Russia border, under the guise of military drills, as well as his buildup of military equipment and Russian soldiers in the Donbas AND in Ukrainian Crimea.

It also puts into perspective the severe uptick of 'ceasefire violations' and 'heavy armament clashes between Putin's Russian soldiers & his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army, along the Donbas 'ceasefire' line.

 

Even the tootheless OSCE, whose current Chairman is none other than the Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), has recently catalogued a long list of 'ceasefire' violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

It is therefore no wonder that,

"[Commander of US Army Europe Lt. Gen. Ben] Hodges (right) says Russia could help address concerns by following the example of US military drills where Russian observers are allowed.

Russia should allow observers, including Western journalists, to attend upcoming military drills that could again put Ukraine on edge just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharpened his rhetoric, the commander of the US Army in Europe told Reuters." (UT : Aug. 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to that first casualty of war, TRUTH, and Putin's signing into law, the Yarovaya Amendment.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In the early hours of August 28, 2016, [Russian] journalist Alexander Shchetinin (left) was found dead in his apartment at Kostiantynivska Street. Alexander was found on the balcony by his friends, who came to congratulate him on his birthday," the Kyiv Operatyvny news portal wrote on Facebook. (UNIAN : 28 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Alexander Shchetinin,
 
"...publically criticized [ ]Vladimir Putin, who he called a “personal enemy” running a “fascist dictatorship,” (The Telegraph : 29 August 2016) and,

"... gave up his Russian citizenship before becoming a Ukrainian national and settling in the capital." (Rachael Pells (right): The Independent : Monday 29 August 2016) (my emphasis)

What must also be irking Putin is the fact that,

• Ukraine’s public expenditures fell by 9 percent of GDP in 2015 alone, and the budget deficit plunged from 10.5 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.5 percent in 2015.

• Three anti-corruption bodies have been institutionalized. Bank cleansing proceeds. Absurd rules for early retirement have been abolished. The country’s macroeconomic stability remains strong, and Ukraine has returned to economic growth.

• After a total GDP fall of 17 percent in 2014-15, the real economy has bottomed out, and new growth is tepid. Realistically, the IMF predicts a GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year. (Anders Åslund: Atlantic Council : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

 As a consequence, and extremely disconcerting,

"Structural units of the Russian Telecom and Mass Communications, Finance and Industry and Trade Ministries, the Federal Agency for State Reserves and the Central Bank will be involved in mobilization training, the Defense Ministry’s press office said.

The mobilization training will be held as part of a sudden combat readiness check of the Russian Armed Forces, the press office added." (Russia Beyond the Headlines : August 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And we now hear that,

".... a  Final decision on the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany on the sidelines of the [G20] summit in China (September 4-5, 2016) is still pending, told reporters on Monday, the press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov.

“While there is no final confirmation about the meeting. Yet negotiations on diplomatic channels”, – said Peskov." (NewsRussia : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama may communicate with each other on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in China on Sept. 4-5, the Russian news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

Earlier on Monday, Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said the U.S. president hopes to meet his Russian counterpart to discuss some issues during the summit.

"We also hope (for such an opportunity)," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. "We are ready, although the final decision has not been made yet," he added. (Xinhua Net : Moscow, Aug. 30) (my emphasis)

The fact that at the coming G20 meeting in China, there 

• may be a meeting between Putin, Merkel and Hollande, and
• may be a meeting between Putin and Obama

tells us that, more than anything else, Is Putin on the brink? These meetings (if they happen!) will be for the public consumption of the Russian people rather than an earnestness on the part of Putin to bring to a resolution his current war with Ukraine. 

Let us not foget that there is some anxiety on the part of Putin about the forcoming Duma elections next month.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia on 18 September 2016, having been brought forward from 4 December 2016.   

Already he has set up his own Praetorian Guard, together with the fact that he has signed into law his Yarovaya Amendment, a legal support for any actions his Praetorian Guard may have to take againt the Russian people AFTER these uncoming Duma elections.

Added to which, he is now publicly mobilizing the Russian people. Russia Beyond the Headlines

(to be continued)