The Maidan revolution is coming to haunt Putin.

Oh! What a tangled web we weave,

When first we practice to deceive!

Remember when Putin invaded Ukrainian Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, and then proudly announced to the assembled Russian political 'glitterati' that Ukrainian Crimea is now part of the Russian Federation? 

For Putin in 2014, the Maidan revolution was merely a mosquito which he thought he had swatted to death by simply annexing Ukrainian Crimea and openly invading Ukraine in the Donbas.

Then came the US-EU sanctions, and he faltered somewhat, having always believed that he had all the political aces up his sleeve.

But Putin, being Putin, simply whipped up a fervent nationalist sentiment amongst the Russian people and his puppet sidekick, Dmitry Medvedev, simply told them to 'tighten their belts'.

As reported in 2016 by the BBC,

"During a walkabout, Medvedev was confronted by a pensioner who complained about the government's failure to index pensions. The prime minister replied: "There is no money. But be strong. All the best. Have a good day, and good health," he added. Then he turned round and left." (BBC : 9th June, 2016) (my emphasis)

Enter the 2016 US presidential elections or, should I say, enter Donald Trump.

Putin simply could not contain himself when Trump commented that,

"If he says great things about me, I'm going to say great things about him," the Republican nominee said.
"I've already said he is very much of a leader. The man has very strong control over his country."(Allan Smith : Business Insider UK : Sep. 10, 2016) (my emphasis)

So Putin decided to "give Trump a leg up" in his presidential race against Hillary Clinton by hacking into the US Democratic Party computers and then letting Julian Assange, still holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, release just that hacked information that will help Trump win the presidential race.

Assange, whose hatred of Hillary Clinton knew no bounds, duly complied with Putin's wishes, and then arrogantly used a reporters' legal right not to divulge the source of their information as a fig-leaf to cover up the fact that he received his  'hacked' information directly from the Kremlin.  

Putin thought that he was 'home and dry' when Donald Trump received nearly 3 million popular votes less than Hillary Clinton but received an overwhelming amount of Electoral College votes that ultimately made him the president-elect.

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the next president of the US on January 20th, 2017.

And now, ironically, the Maidan revolution that precipitated the sanctions regime against Putin and his cronies when Putin annexed Ukrainian Crimea and started his war with Ukraine, has wiped the smile off the faces of both Putin and Donald Trump.

President Barak Obama has just expelled 35 Russian diplomats about the row over the hacking of the US Democratic Party computers, and the release of specific information that they hacked by Julian Assange.

And those Maidan precipitated sanctions have now been increased!

 

The fact that President Obama has given the expelled Russian diplomats ONLY 3 DAYS to leave the US has boxed in both Putin and Trump.

Around this 'sanctions-boxing-in' of Trump and Putin, Obama has placed barbed wire.

Trump CANNOT unwind this barbed wire to release Putin from these sanctions WITHOUT, in the words of Adam Schiff (watch video below), Californian Cogressman and member of the House Intelligence Committee,

"There's gonna come a time when President Trump is gonna have to come before the American people and explain why he's gonna take action vis a vis .. and it could be Russia or Iran or North Korea or China ... and he's gonna want to say that this is on the basis of the intelligence that he's received .. and he's not gonna want to have to share that intelligence.

So for him to belittle the quality of the work that the intelligence community does will ultimately belittle his own presidency, his own effectiveness, and call it into question.

So he's already ... I think ... damaging the country ... but he's also going to damage his own potential success ..."

The web of deceit that Putin has spun since the Maidan revolution is now coming to haunt him. 

No amount of Kissinger's and Tillerson's can give Putin relief  from the barbed wire that Obama has now spun around him.

The simple fact is that Putin now dare not tread on the toes of Trump because Trump, himself, has been boxed-in by Obama.

Oh! What a tangled web we weave,

When first we practice to deceive!

Young girl at Maidan

(to be continued)

(post script)

It did not take long for Putin to gingerly try to extricate himself from the barbed wire around Obama's actions.

This blog entry was posted on 30/12/2016 at 15:34 GMT.

Since then Putin has realised that he has to "tiptoe" around president-elect Donald Trump.

As the BBC has just reported 55 minutes ago (Current time: 19.22 GMT),

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a tit-for-tat response after the US expelled 35 Russian diplomats amid a row over hacking.

He said Russia would not "stoop" to the level of "irresponsible diplomacy" but would work to restore ties with the US under President-elect Donald Trump.

Russia's foreign ministry had formally asked Mr Putin to expel 35 US envoys.
The country denies involvement in hacking related to the US election, calling US sanctions "ungrounded".

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev accused the outgoing US administration of President Barack Obama of ending in "anti-Russian death throes". (BBC News : 30/12/2016)

The BBC further reports that,

"In a statement on the Kremlin website (in Russian), Mr Putin said: "We won't be expelling anyone.

"We won't be banning their families and children from the places where they usually spend the New Year holidays. Furthermore, I invite all children of American diplomats accredited in Russia to the New Year and Christmas Tree in the Kremlin."

He wished Barack Obama and his family a happy New Year, as well as Mr Trump and "the whole American people".

In a message on the presidential website, Mr Putin said that, with the accession of Mr Trump, "the two states, acting in a constructive and pragmatic manner, can take real steps for restoration of mechanisms for bilateral co-operation". (ibid BBC)


Does Putin not realise that such "fawning" behaviour towards Donald Trump has simply increased the barbed wire that Obama has spun around him? 


(to be continued)

Will Henry Kissinger and Rex Tillerson bury Minsk2 for Putin?

" Even when he dominated US foreign policy at the height of the Cold War, the Harvard professor [Henry Kissinger (left)] with the distinctive German accent was also a media celebrity with a reputation as a ladies’ man. “Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac,” he once noted, dryly."

So wrote Philip Sherwell about Henry Kissinger just before his 88th birthday. (The Telegraph : 21 May 2011) (my emphasis)

Now, in his 93rd year, Kissinger has been given another dose of 'political viagra' by none other than Donald Trump.

As Nahal Toosi and Isaac Arnsdorf report,

"Now, as Donald Trump signals that he wants a more cooperative relationship with Moscow, the 93-year-old Kissinger is positioning himself as a potential intermediary — meeting with the president-elect in private and flattering him in public. (Politico : Dec 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is of particular interest as Kissinger once again elbows himself towards the 'centre stage' on the geoplitical front is the fact that,

"He believes that rapprochement with Russia is the right move to position itself against the increasing militarization of China. A balance between America and Russia would strengthen global stability." (UT : Dec. 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kissinger further believes that,

"The core of the idea is that Russia guarantees the security of the eastern Ukraine, gradually withdrawing from there. The West, in return, does not interfere with the Crimean question.

The occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula [Crimea] is not officially recognized - but should not be an issue between Moscow and Washington, Kissinger recommends. (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

In effect, Kissinger is telling Trump to simply ignore the fact that Putin annexed Crimea, contrary to international law, and in so doing actually giving Putin a fig-leaf of international respectability for seizing some of the territory of an independent country.

But this was not always the case with Kissinger.

In 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, and then rolled his troops into the Donbas, Kissinger stated that,

"The situation has gone very far, and Russia is using military pressures which we cannot accept.

And therefore it is appropriate for us to insist that the military pressures cease..... We cannot permit a country to be dismembered ..... (video below)

By April of 2015 Kissinger was giving a slanted historical justification (see video below) for Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, claiming that Ukrainian Crimea had ALWAYS been part of Russia, seemingly forgetting that Cathering the Great, the minor German princess who became ruler of Russia, also annexed Crimea in 1783 after wresting it from the Crimean Tatars.

It then also became a vassal of Russia. (cf Wikipedia [1], [2]

And now, in 2016, Kissinger, who has met Putin on many occasions, not only supports Trump's views about Putin, but also recommends,

".... recognizing the dominance of Russia in the former Soviet republics of Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. This means: The US politically confers Russia's space between Poland / Baltics and Iran, Afghanistan and China as a sphere of influence." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Does Kissinger, together with Rex Tillerson, the prospective US Secretary of State appointed by Trump, spell the end of the Maidan revolution?

Does this duo of Kissinger and Tillerson also spell the end of US sanctions against Putin, even in the light of,

"The European Union has extended sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine for another six months.

The European Council formally approved the extension on December 19 after EU leaders agreed to the move at a summit last week.

"The council prolonged the economic sanctions targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy until July 31, 2017," the council said in a statement"? (RFE/RL : December 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Will the duo of Kissinger and Tillerson also hammer the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 for Putin?

(to be continued)

Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House will fashion how Trump 'deals' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

In my very first blog entry "Putin andUkraine" (10/06/2014) I wrote that,

"As reported in the Russian press, during a session of the board of the FSB security service in Moscow on April 7, 2014, Putin urged that,

“We [the FSB] must clearly differentiate between legal opposition activity, as is in every democratic country, and extremism, which is built on hatred, inciting national and international discord, and defying the law and the constitution [of Russia]”.....(below: Putin addressing the FSB 2014) ,

These words ring hollow in international ears when currently applied to Ukraine because his Russian groups of provocateurs that have currently infiltrated Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv were actively inciting national discord, hatred, and defying the law and the constitution of Ukraine in an attempt to dismember Ukraine before the impending presidential elections of May 25th 2014. (first blog entry) (my emphasis)

I further remarked that,

"Unlike George Bush, who saw a sort of kindred soul when looking into Putin's eyes, Colin Powell was correct when he remarked that when he sees Putin he sees KGB."(ibid first blog entry)

More recently, Colin Powell once again stated that,

“I know Vladimir Putin well,” General Colin Powell said during a recent appearance at Harvard University. “He’s KGB through and through.” (Belfer Center : Fall/Winter 2015-2016) (my emphasis) (left: Colin Powell speaking at Belfer Center)

It should therefore come as no surprise that what Putin did to influence the Ukrainian presidential elections in 2014 he has now repeated in the US presidential elections of 2016, using 'cyber warfare' tactics instead of Kremlin-paid provocateurs.

RT has also been assiduously infiltrating the American public with 'conspiracy theory' T.V. to try and sow discord amongst the American public, discord that has found many eager ears and eyes as evidenced by such internet TV programs as the "Infowars" website run by Alex Jones, who regularly appeared on RT as an 'expert', and by whom Trump was rather sycophanticly interviewed in December of 2015 (Published on Youtube on 2 Dec 2015)

 

Trump is now the president-elect of the US. And throughout his election campaign he displayed an admiration for Putin, that even led him to call upon Putin to,

“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference here in an apparent reference to Mrs. Clinton’s deleted emails. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” (Ashley Parker and David E. Sanger : New York Time : July 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin obliged Trump by hacking into the Democratic computers during the presidential elections, giving all their 'hacked' data to Julian Assange of Wikileaks to publish on the internet, and which is now backfiring on Trump.

Recall that Paul Manafort wrote the 'Ukraine election script' for Victor Yanukovich in his presidential election against Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010, and for which he was handsomely paid.

Then in April 2016, Trump terminated campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and promoted Manafort to the position. Manafort gained control of the daily operations of the campaign as well as an expanded $20 million budget, hiring decisions, advertising, and media strategy. (Wikipedia)

No doubt, Manafort brought some of his experience in the Ukrainian presidential elections to bear on the Trump campaign.

Manafort was, however, forced to resign as Trump's campaign manger when it was revealed that,

"Earlier this week the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau claimed a secret ledger showed Mr Manafort had been earmarked $12.7 million in off-the-books cash payments from the pro-Russian political party of Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's former president." (Harriet Alexander : The Telegraph : 19 August 2016) (my emphasis)

It was also revealed by Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate that,

"For his part, Paul Manafort has been closely tied to Ukraine over the past decade, making millions from consulting work. He worked for Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash and Oleg Deripaska, three major pro-Russia oligarchs, as an adviser." (The Guardian : Saturday 30 July 2016) (my emphasis) ((top) Manafort and Deripaska (bottom) Akhmetov and Firtash)

And now, as reported by Gregory Krieg and Jamie Gangel, 

"Paul Manafort has reemerged as a player in the fight to shape the new [Trump] administration, senior Republicans with knowledge of the transition tell CNN on Thursday, after resigning under pressure as the chairman of Donald Trump's campaign this summer. (CNN : December 1, 2016)

If Putin's war with Ukraine was unwittingly embroiled in the US presidential election by Donald Trump through his  employment of Paul Manafort as his campaign manager, it now emerges that president-elect Donald Trump has now placed Putin's war with Ukraine, in the person of Paul Manafort, firmly at the centre of the shaping of his presidential administration.

For Trump, however, the storm clouds are gathering.

As reported by Roland Oliphant and Nick Allen, 

 

"The White House launched an extraordinary attack on Donald Trump, suggesting that it was “obvious” he knew about Russian interference in the US presidential election, which it said had been personally authorised by Vladimir Putin." (The Telegraph :15 December 2016) (my emphasis)

 

President Barack Obama has now called for a full investigation of the Russian hacking into the Democratic Party computers during the presidential elections, vowing to take appropriate action against Russia.

 (video aired on 15 Dec. 2016)

 

 

Obama is been given a another chance to confront Putin in the manner of the late President Kennedy's confrontation with Khrushchev over the missile crisis in Cuba in October 1962.

 

  

This is Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House. It will fashion how president-elect Trump will 'deal' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)