Can Ukraine survive the political embrace of Trump and Putin?

"Putin and Mr. Trump spoke soon after his victory and a statement from Mr. Trump’s transition team said the president-elect told Putin he looked forward to “a strong and enduring relationship.” Observers caution that Putin’s interests are self-motivated and Russia’s incentive to interfere in U.S. politics won’t go away with Trump’s victory." (CBS News (Associated Press) : December 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

And now Walter Steinmeier, the Putinversteher German Foreign Secretary, is suddenly beginning to express concern about,


" ... what policies U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will adopt means there is little prospect of making much progress in implementing the Minsk ceasefire accord on Ukraine, Germany's foreign minister said.

Speaking in Brussels, Frank-Walter Steinmeier also told reporters on Wednesday that it was still unclear what the future relationship between Russia and the United States would be." (Sabine Siebold: Reuters : Wed Dec 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

If Trump has somewhat messed about with the brain of Steinmeier, causing him to be unclear what the future relationship between Russia and the United States would be, then Steinmeier should take a leaf out of the conclusions of a NATO meeting held yesterday with Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, at which it was concluded that,

" ... our meeting underscores NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine. NATO Allies do not – and will not – recognise Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. Today we discussed Russia’s continued aggressive actions, the importance of implementing the Minsk Agreements and NATO’s enduring support for Ukraine." (NATO : 07 Dec. 2016 ) (left: Jens Stoltenberg NATO (top) Pavlo Klimkin (bottom))

So whilst Steinmeier is 'throwing in the towel' over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, NATO is determined to continue its support for Ukraine in its war with Putin's Russia, and will continue to stress that the Minsk2 protocols be FULLY implemented .

In other words, Steinmeier is giving in to Trump's pre- and post- election 'flattering' statements about Putin, and his seeming determination to implement  “a strong and enduring relationship.” between himself and Putin.

Disconcertingly, Trump is already underlining his determination to develop “a strong and enduring relationship.” between himself and Putin by considering Rex Tillerson (right), Exxon Mobile’s CEO, as his Secretary of State (Madeline Farber : Fortune : December 5, 2016), the SAME Rex Tillerson who, in 2011,


" ...signed an agreement to extract oil and gas from the Russian Arctic, in the most significant U.S.-Russian corporate deal since U.S. President Barack Obama began a push to improve ties.

The pact, which includes an option for Rosneft to invest in Gulf of Mexico and Texan properties, ended any hope of Britain's BP reviving its deal with state-owned Rosneft to develop the same Arctic territory. " (Darya Korsunskaya and Braden Reddall: Reuters : Tue Aug 30, 2011)

Now bear in mind that,

"..The United States [together with the EU] decided in 2014 to impose sanctions on Rosneft and other Russian companies in response to Russia’s intervention in the war in eastern Ukraine..

The sanctions limit long-term lending and transfer of American technology for drilling offshore and shale oil deposits." ( Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Dec. 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kramer also reported that,

"... Mr. [Rex] Tillerson criticized the sanctions as harmful for business after they halted an Exxon joint venture with Rosneft to drill for oil in the Kara Sea, in Russia’s sector of the Arctic Ocean. (ibid Andrew Kramer)

How, then, will Rex Tillerson, should he become president-elect Trump's Secretary Of State, respond to the fact that,

"European Union diplomats say EU leaders are highly likely to prolong economic sanctions on Russia through July 31, 2017, when they meet in Brussels for a summit next week, [bringing a smile to the face of Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko (left)].

Several EU diplomats close to talks on the sanctions have told RFE/RL that EU leaders might give a green light for the six-month extension of the sanctions without a discussion when they meet on December 15." (Rikard Jozwiak : RFERL : December 06, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin is hell bent on having the sanctions against himself, his cronies, and their companies, removed 'once and for all'. 

And as Vivian Salama (right) writes, 

" .. For the Russian president, relief from crippling sanctions is a gateway to the ultimate goal of establishing Russia as the political and economic equivalent of the United States. 

And the U.S. president-elect, who extolled Putin’s leadership during the campaign and called for a tempered approach to U.S.-Russia relations, may be a conduit to achieving that.

Despite Russia’s denials that it tampered in the U.S. election or even took sides, Trump’s victory has been greeted as a win of sorts for Moscow, too, by members of Putin’s own United Russia party." (The Star (Associated Press) : Sun., Dec. 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

In my last blog entry (Monday, 5 December 2016) I wrote that,

" ....Putin is moving very fast to present the incoming President of the US, Donald Trump, with a 'fait accompli' over Ukraine..."

What is also becoming more and more evident by the day is that president-elect Donald Trump is also moving very fast to implement his "strong and enduring relationship" with Putin.

Can the EU-US sanctions against Putin, and the Minsk2 protocols, survive the political embrace of Trump and Putin?

(to be continued)