Time is simply not on the side of either Trump nor Putin

The degree and extent to which the Trump-Putin connections continue to unravel on a dizzying path towards a growing chorus that is beginning to use the "impeachment" word must now be giving Putin himself sleepless nights.

As the Trump-Putin connection continues to unravel, more and more of Trump's close associates are being inexorably drawn towards the vortex of the legal case being built up against Trump as a "fit person to be President of the US".

The immediate names that come to mind are :- (full video here)

(1) Jared Kushner and  

(2) Rex Tillerson.
 

Against the backdrop of this continuing outpouring of revelations about Putin and his Kremlin clique's involvement in the election of Trump to the Presidency of the US we have the continuing and mounting problems that beset the Russian economy.

It should always be borne in mind that Putin's interference in the US presidential elections was not merely to show to the Russian people that Russia, as expemplified by himself, is a superpower but, more importantly, to deflect the gaze of the Russian population away from their deteriorating economic circumstances.

And according to Yevgeniya Goryunova,

“Russian euphoria about the annexation of Crimea has significantly weakened under the press of social and economic problems,” the Crimean political scientist says. “The Crimean theme is losing its importance,” and the only aspect of it that Moscow outlets now talk much about is the Kerch bridge (ru.krymr.com/a/28489804.html)." (Window On Eurasia:Thursday, May 18, 2017) (my emphasis) 

 Just as Trump cannot keep at bay the growing avalanche of  evidence not only about the Trump-Putin connection but, more importantly, that he tried to obstruct the FBI investigations into these connections so, too, Putin cannot simply wish away the EU-US sanctions against him that are having such a devastating economic effect on the people of Russia and on the Russian economy as a whole.

And now that US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon Mobil, is beginning to find himself inexorably drawn into the investigations into Trump and his associates in, and outside, the White House, can we expect to see a sudden re-emergence of Exxon Mobil trying to free istelf from the US sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic clique before Trump is indicted with 'obstruction of Justice'?

As has been reported by Elena Holodny and Natasha Bertrand  (left) last month,

"Exxon Mobil Corp. applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from sanctions on Russia in an effort to restart its joint venture with state oil company PAO Rosneft, according to the Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon and Bradley Olson." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 19, 2017) (my emphasis)

Time is simply not on the side of either Trump nor Putin.

Putin will be the victor in next year's Russian presidential elections but, unless he can pull an economic rabbit out of his crumpled economic hat, the growing groundswell of Russian public opinion against his mis-management of the Russian economy could yet prove to be his downfall.

(to be continued after a short break)

Will Macron push for the lifting of sanctions against Putin?

Hardly had Emmanuel Macron settled fully into the Élysée Palace in Paris after his victory over Marine Le Pen when,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and France's new President Emmanuel Macron held their first phone conversation and discussed possible further cooperation in resolving the Ukraine crisis, the Kremlin said in a statement on Thursday.

They also expressed readiness to develop relations between Russia and France and spoke about a possibility of future contacts, according to the statement." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : Thu May 18, 2017)

Recall that on the day following Macron winning the French presidential elections,
 
"In a telegram Putin told the new president that Russia is ready for constructive work on bilateral and global issues. He urged Macron to “overcome mutual distrust” and join forces." (Alexandra Topping (right): The Guardian : Monday 8 May 2017) (my emphasis)

Let us now cast our minds back to Macron's Moscow visit in January of 2016.

As reported by Kenneth Rapoza,

"French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron hinted this weekend in Moscow that his country would support an end to sanctions when they come up for renewal in July. "The objective we all share is to be able to lift sanctions next summer because the process has been respected," he was quoted as saying in Le Figaro on Monday." (Forbes : Jan 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Macron's hope for the removal of sanctions against Putin in July 2016 did, however, not materialise.

Then, just as he had done in the US presidential elections, Putin's FSB 'cyber' unit also hacked the Macron election campaign on the very eve of the French presidential elections..

Given that yesterday Macron and Putin, "...discussed possible further cooperation in resolving the Ukraine crisis", are we now to assume that, Macron has 'overcome his distrust of Putin', as urged by Putin in his congratulatory telegram to Macron after the French presidential elections?

Is it this possible overcoming of distrust against Putin by Macron that has motivated Ukrainian MP Nadiia Savchenko (left) to urge Macron in a letter addressed to him,

"Savchenko called on Macron to maintain and strengthen sanctions against Russia, as the "authority of this country only understands force and resolve"? (112UA : 10 May 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin's growing desperation to have the EU-US sanctions against him lifted, which was imposed upon him because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, is amply illustrated by his links between Trump and his associates during the US presidential election, and the ultimate election of Trump to the presidency of the US.

Putin's recent gloating over the fact that Trump divulged top secret information to that dyed-in-the-wool Russian Foreign Secretary, Sergey Lavrov, and the Russian ambassador to the US, Sergey Kislyak, in the very presidential inner sanctum of the Oval Office itself, should give French President Macron cause for concern.

 
Already Macron seems to be following in the footsteps of Donald Trump in his attempt to try and control the Frenchs press.

As reported by Sylvie Corbet (left),

"Some French political reporters said that Macron's office called their media organization to designate specific journalists who will be able to cover Macron's first trip outside Europe, scheduled in Mali on Friday.

In the past, French media would decide themselves who to send on presidential trips.
......
Press freedom group Reporters Without Borders said the actions of Macron's young presidency were a "concerning signal to the press" and "could be used as a way of putting pressure on the media." (The State : May 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

Whether Macron's seeming rapproachment with Putin leads him towards devaluing the Minsk2 protocols and pushes him towards arguing for a lifting of EU sanctions against Putin now becomes a distinct possibility.

Macron may be an ardent proponent of the EU but, where sanctions are concerned, it should always be borne in mind that in 2016 he stated that,

"The objective we all share is to be able to lift sanctions next summer because the process has been respected," (ibid Kenneth Rapoza)

(to be continued)

How long can Rex Tillerson remain in the shadows of the accelerating Trump-Putin investigations?

"Power", Henry Kissinger once remarked, "is the ultimate aphrodisiac."

To which one might add, "It is also highly addictive."

No more is this being illustrated than in the tortuous manner in which Republican members of both the US Senate and US Congress are almost deperately trying to protect US President, Donald Trump, as yet another avalanche of his misdemenours descends upon their heads.

If the recent sudden, and suspicious, dismissal of FBI Director James Comey, nor the entertaining of Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Kislyak in the Oval office, and divulging to them top-secret information, was not enough cause Republican Senators and Congress members to pause in their daily fix of that powerful aphrodisiac, power, then surely yesterday's revelation that Donald Trump may be guilty of obstructing justice may make them realise that they are in the Senate and the House of Congress to represent the people that elected them, rather than simply to protect Donald Trump.

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"The victory that both Trump and Putin are now celebrating may yet turn out to be a Phyrric victory.

The scarlet thread of Maidan that binds them both is not so easily undone." (blog entry 11/5/2017)

The very foundation of Putin's meddling in the US presidential elections can be traced back to Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, that led to the US-EU sanctions against him, and that is having devastating consequences on the Russian economy and, consequently, the growing impoverishment of the Russian people themselves.  

Emily Cashen (left) succinctly sums up the effect of the US-EU sanctions on the Russian economy.

" ... Since the sanctions came into place some three years ago, Russia’s economy has struggled. Between 2014 and 2015, the country’s GDP growth contracted by 3.8 percent (see Fig 1), while inflation accelerated to 15.5 percent. Now more isolated than at any point since the end of the Cold War, the nation has seen an increase in its budget deficit, wide-ranging budget cuts and even noticeable food shortages." (World Finance : April 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

And now, the scarlet thread of Maidan that indelibly binds both Trump and Putin together has once again raised its head into the headlines in the US. 

As Rachel Maddow of MSNBC reports,

Part 1

 

Part 2

The near inexplicable degree to which Trump will go in trying to protect Putin by attempting to shackle the Senate, Congress, and FBI (amongst others) investigations into Putin's assistance in getting him into the White House once again brings the "dossier" to the fore.

"On January 10, 2017, the media reported on the existence of a private intelligence dossier containing unverified allegations of misconduct and ties between Donald Trump, then President-elect, and the Russian government during the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the period preceding the election. The dossier was written by a former British MI6 intelligence officer, Christopher Steele (left), who went into hiding after the release of the dossier, but reappeared on March 7, 2017" (Wikipedia)

Critical parts of this dossier have, since its release, been verified, to the utter consternation of Donald Trump himself.

And as reported by Robert Mendick and  Robert Verkaik (right),

"An ex-KGB chief suspected of helping the former MI6 spy Christopher Steele to compile his dossier on Donald Trump may have been murdered by the Kremlin and his death covered up. it has been claimed.

Oleg Erovinkin (left), a former general in the KGB and its successor the FSB, was found dead in the back of his car in Moscow on Boxing Day in mysterious circumstances.

Erovinkin was a key aide to Igor Sechin, a former deputy prime minister and now head of Rosneft, the state-owned oil company, who is repeatedly named in the dossier." (The Telegraph :27 January 2017) (my emphasis)

The $64 question is,

"Did Tillerson (right), former CEO of Exxon Mobil and now US Secretary of State, and who has had copious dealings with Igor Sechin in the past, know at the time about this 'mysterious' death of Oleg Erovinkin linked, as it is, to a dossier of Trump's misconduct in Russia and his ties to Putin, the very Trump who gave him his present job?"

Tillerson has hidden himself in the shadows as Intelligence Committees of  the Senate and Congress, as well as the FBI and sundry other financial investigations, continue to unravel the Trump-Putin connection.

How long can he continue to remain in the shadows before he also becomes embroiled in the unfolding of the Trump-Putin connection?

(to be continued)

Trump and Putin's euphoria over their current victory may yet turn out to be a Phyrric victory.

Yesterday I wrote that,

"If, earlier, I stated that, "Putin's room for diplomatic manouvering is rapidly diminishing", the dismissal of Comey by Trump has eased the tensions in the Kremlin and, no doubt, brought a thankful respite for Putin from his diplomatic anxieties about the easing of US-EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clique in the Kremlin." (blog : Tuesday, 9 May 2017)

And so it was. 

As Lawrence O'Donnell of MSNBC reported yesterday,

"Vladimir Putin was asked today about the firing of James Comey and he seemed as happy as we have ever seen him when asked about US-Russia relations" (MSNBC : 10/5/2017) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's euphoria is the warm welcoming by Donald Trump of that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Sergey Lavrov and the Russian ambassdor to the US, Sergey Kislyak, into Oval Office of the White House yesterday. 

The 25 minute meeting was not documented by the US press because they were excluded whilst the Russian press was not.

Whilst Trump grandstanded about the Syrian question, what he did NOT mention was the fact that Lavrov and himself ALSO discussed Ukraine.

At the same time, as reported by RFERL,

"A White House statement said Pence met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin as President Donald Trump was meeting with Klimkin's Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

The statement said Pence stressed America's support for Ukraine's "territorial integrity" while urging Kyiv to "peacefully resolve the conflict" with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine." (RFERL (Associated Press) : May 11, 2017) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

As US Vice-President Pence was urging Kyiv to peacefully resolve Putin's war with Ukraine, can we assume that Trump was "urging Lavrov to tell Putin to peacefully resolve his war with Ukraine"?  

 
As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly"!

 
It is no co-incidence that these meetings took place a day after FBI Director James Comey was dismissed by Trump or, to put it in Trump's own words, "... You are hereby terminated and removed from office, effective immediately .." (CNN : May 10, 2017)

 It is also no co-incidence that James Comey's dismissal came as he was ramping up his investigation into the indelible links between Putin and Trump during the US presidential election.
(cf Lawrence O'Donnell)

The very root of Putin's current euphoria over the dismissal of James Comey, and the entrance of Lavrov and Kislyak into the Oval Office, lies in the fact that the US sanctions imposed upon Putin and his Kremlin clique because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, might now be removed.

Emily Cashen (left) succinctly sums up the effect of the US-EU sanctions on the Russian economy.

" ... Since the sanctions came into place some three years ago, Russia’s economy has struggled. Between 2014 and 2015, the country’s GDP growth contracted by 3.8 percent (see Fig 1), while inflation accelerated to 15.5 percent. Now more isolated than at any point since the end of the Cold War, the nation has seen an increase in its budget deficit, wide-ranging budget cuts and even noticeable food shortages." (World Finance : April 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

Whether the current euphoria in the Oval Office and in the Kremlin will last will now be entirely dependent on the Senate and Congressional Intelligence Hearings on Putin's collusion with Trump officials during the US presidential elections that ultimately led to Trump becoming President of the US.

The victory that both Trump and Putin are now celebrating may yet turn out to be a Phyrric victory.

The scarlet thread of Maidan that binds them both is not so easily undone.

(to be continued)

Will Emmanuel Macron finally put paid to Putin's hopes of US-EU sanctions against him being lifted?

When Donald Trump won the US presidential race Putin, his 'siloviki', and the members of the Russian Duma, celebrated.

Not so in the case of the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential elections last Sunday.

As reported by Angelique Chrisafis,

"Centrist independent wins by 66% to 34% margin, but Marine Le Pen’s defeat still marks historically high vote for France’s far right" (The Guardian :8 May, 2017)

Putin was desperate to have Marine Le Pen win the French presidential election, for the simple reason that, as reported by Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, Sputnik,

"Emmanuel Macron’s presidential election victory means France’s foreign policy will remain unchanged with sanctions retained against Russia..." (Sputnik : 09.05.2017) (my emphasis)

This contrasts with Marine Le Pen who, as recently as March of this year, whilst meeting Putin in the Kremlin, argued that,

"Ms Le Pen, the leader of France's National Front (FN) party, called during her visit to Moscow for the lifting of EU sanctions against Russia, arguing that they were "counterproductive".
...
Speaking at Russia's lower house of parliament, the Duma, she vowed to push for the so-called "blacklists" of targeted individuals to be abolished.
...
Ms Le Pen has previously stated her approval of Russia's annexation of of Crimea. (BBC News : 24 March 2017) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant in the defeat of Marine Le Pen by Emmanuel Macron is the fact that,

"The hackers behind a “massive and coordinated” attack on the campaign of France’s president-elect, Emmanuel Macron, have been linked by a number of cybersecurity research firms to the Russian-affiliated group blamed for attacking the Democratic party shortly before the US election." (Alex Hern :The Guardian : Monday 8 May 2017) (my emphasis)

And yesterday, Sally Yates (right), former US Acting Attorney General, testified before US Congress on Putin's interference in the US presidential elections. (full video)

What is significant about her testimony is that it exposed Trump National Security appointee, Michael Flynn, as possibly being an agent for Putin who, in collusion with Russian Ambassador to the US, Sergey Kislyak (left), 
 

" ... talked about sanctions against Russia with the country’s ambassador in December, The Washington Post reports.

The report, which cites current and former U.S. officials, contradicts Michael Flynn’s assertion on Wednesday that he never discussed the topic with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak during a series of phone calls in the month before Trump took office. " (Max Greenwood : The Hill : 09/02/17) (my emphasis)

Putin is now confronted by both Emmanuel Macron and the fact that the ongoing US Senate and Congressional Intelligence Hearings have somewhat put paid to Donald Trump even considering lifting the US sanctions against him because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As the US Senate and Congressional hearings into the direct links between Putin's Kremlin and US President Trump and his White House associates continues to unfold, Putin's room for diplomatic manouvering is rapidly diminishing.

(to be continued)

BREAKING NEWS 

Just as FBI Director James Comey's investigations into the links between Trump, his associates in the White House, and Putin, is gaining a critical head of steam, Trump has possibly set in motion a constitutional crisis by summarily dismissing Comey.

And all to protect himself from the public exposure of the indelible link between himself and Putin.

Putin himself must be wiping the sweat off his brow following the election of Emmanuel Macron, and the fading of his hopes that the EU sanctions against him would be lifted, as the news of Trump's dismissal of FBI Director Comey reached his ears.

If, earlier, I stated that, "Putin's room for diplomatic manouvering is rapidly diminishing", the dismissal of Comey by Trump has eased the tensions in the Kremlin and, no doubt, brought a thankful respite for Putin from his diplomatic anxieties about the easing of US-EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clique in the Kremlin.

We now await to see what the political repercussions of Comey's dismissal by Trump has on the body politic of the USA.

(to be continued)

Putin is praying for a Le Pen victory in the French presidential race this coming Sunday

As reported by Oleksiy Haran (left),

"The major thing about May 2 Sochi meeting of Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin was its substantial component. Importantly for Kyiv, the German Chancellor voiced a statement that Ukraine must regain access the Ukrainian-Russian border, the part which is now beyond Kyiv’s control." (UNIAN : 03 May 2017) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Silvia Amaro, Putin once again paid lip-service to the implementation of the Minsk2 agreements, which includes the regaining of the currently Russian controlled border in the Putin-controlled Donetsk region as called for by Angela Merkel.

"Merkel and Putin also discussed the conflict in Ukraine which has dragged on for several years, after Russia's annexation of Crimea. Putin said that such a conflict is a concern and confirmed the need for an implementation of the Minsk agreement by all sides." (CNBC : Tuesday, 2 May 2017) (my emphasis)

In their joint press report after their tête–à–tête in Sochi, Putin emphasised the strong economic ties between Russia and Germany, 'and how much Germany gets out of it'!

Putin's emphasis on how much Germany gets out of its economic ties with Russia is, no doubt, a rather veiled threat towards Merkel since,

"Berlin has been the driving force behind keeping Europe united on sanctions so Russia's only hope of sanctions being lifted, is with German support." (BBC News : 2 May 2017) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, on the same day as Putin and Merkel met in Sochi, US President Trump had a phone call with Putin.

As Julia Ioffe (left) explains,

"On Tuesday afternoon, after President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had their third phone call in about as many months, news emerged that the two leaders would finally meet this summer. For those tracking the Trump-Putin dance, it might seem just another date in a long love affair.

The reality, however, looks far bleaker for Putin." (The Atlantic : May 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

She goes on to explain, however, that,

"But it’s not necessarily evidence of [Russian] desperation, as much as it is a canny understanding of Trump’s psychology. By his own admission, Trump responds well to Putin’s compliments, so perhaps if the Russian leader called Trump “colorful” in person, Trump would be moved to unilaterally lift sanctions. The idea to set up a Trump-Putin meeting in order to warm up the American president’s feelings and drive pro-Russia policy was actually quite prescient" (ibid Julia Ioffe) (my emphasis)

The significant difference between the Putin-Merkel and Putin-Trump discussions is that, unlike Merkel, President Trump 'did not mention Ukraine' during their telephone chat.

 
Putin is, however, desperate to influence Trump since, as Jacob Sharpe (right) reports,

"The Russian people, however, are still in dire straits. In 2016, one-quarter of Russian companies cut salaries. Overall, the average Russian wage dropped 8 percent last year and 9.5 percent the year before. International sanctions imposed on Russia continue to cause problems, and energy prices have not recovered to previous highs.
...
Worsening the economic downturn is the Kremlin’s spending to modernize and expand its military capabilities amidst declining revenue and depleted reserves.
...
Even the Ukrainian conflict, once a source of popularity among the Russian people, has begun to hurt morale and highlights the economic malaise at home." (Newsweek : 14 April, 2017) (my emphasis)

Perhaps another indication of Putin's desperation to get the US-EU imposed sanctions against Russia because of Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, is given by the report that,

"The frontrunner in the race for the French presidency, Emmanuel Macron, has filed a lawsuit over online rumours that he has a secret bank account in the Caribbean.
...
The allegations about a secret bank account spread online on right-wing websites and on social media.
Speaking on French radio on Thursday, Mr Macron called the allegations "fake news and lies" and said some of the sites spreading them were "linked to Russian interests". (BBC News : 4 May 2017) (my emphasis)

The 'political' romance between Marine Le Pen and Putin is already public knowledge. Marine Le Pen has already vowed to get rid of France's sanctions against Putin should she be elected President of France. 

That Marine Le Pen could surprise the political pundits in France who are, with one voice, predicting that Macron will win the French presidential race, should not be discounted.

These same political pundits predicted that Britain would remain in the EU, and that Hillary Clinton would win handsomely over Donald Trump.

Putin is praying for a  Marine Le Pen victory in the French presidential race this coming Sunday and, as in the case of the US presidential race, Putin will stop at nothing to help her enter the Élysée Palace.

And as a bonus, such a victory for Marine Le Pen would be a green light for US President Trump to similarly get rid of the US sanctions against Putin.

 (to be continued)