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Thursday, 11 May 2017

Trump and Putin's euphoria over their current victory may yet turn out to be a Phyrric victory.

Yesterday I wrote that,

"If, earlier, I stated that, "Putin's room for diplomatic manouvering is rapidly diminishing", the dismissal of Comey by Trump has eased the tensions in the Kremlin and, no doubt, brought a thankful respite for Putin from his diplomatic anxieties about the easing of US-EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clique in the Kremlin." (blog : Tuesday, 9 May 2017)

And so it was. 

As Lawrence O'Donnell of MSNBC reported yesterday,

"Vladimir Putin was asked today about the firing of James Comey and he seemed as happy as we have ever seen him when asked about US-Russia relations" (MSNBC : 10/5/2017) (my emphasis)


Adding to Putin's euphoria is the warm welcoming by Donald Trump of that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Sergey Lavrov and the Russian ambassdor to the US, Sergey Kislyak, into Oval Office of the White House yesterday. 

The 25 minute meeting was not documented by the US press because they were excluded whilst the Russian press was not.


Whilst Trump grandstanded about the Syrian question, what he did NOT mention was the fact that Lavrov and himself ALSO discussed Ukraine.

At the same time, as reported by RFERL,

"A White House statement said Pence met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin as President Donald Trump was meeting with Klimkin's Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

The statement said Pence stressed America's support for Ukraine's "territorial integrity" while urging Kyiv to "peacefully resolve the conflict" with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine." (RFERL (Associated Press) :





 
It is no co-incidence that these meetings took place a day after FBI Director James Comey was dismissed by Trump or, to put it in Trump's own words, "... You are hereby terminated and removed from office, effective immediately .." (CNN : May 10, 2017)

 It is also no co-incidence that James Comey's dismissal came as he was ramping up his investigation into the indelible links between Putin and Trump during the US presidential election.
(cf Lawrence O'Donnell)


The very root of Putin's current euphoria over the dismissal of James Comey, and the entrance of Lavrov and Kislyak into the Oval Office, lies in the fact that the US sanctions imposed upon Putin and his Kremlin clique because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, might now be removed.

Emily Cashen (left) succinctly sums up the effect of the US-EU sanctions on the Russian economy.

" ... Since the sanctions came into place some three years ago, Russia’s economy has struggled. Between 2014 and 2015, the country’s GDP growth contracted by 3.8 percent (see Fig 1), while inflation accelerated to 15.5 percent. Now more isolated than at any point since the end of the Cold War, the nation has seen an increase in its budget deficit, wide-ranging budget cuts and even noticeable food shortages." (World Finance : April 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

Whether the current euphoria in the Oval Office and in the Kremlin will last will now be entirely dependent on the Senate and Congressional Intelligence Hearings on Putin's collusion with Trump officials during the US presidential elections that ultimately led to Trump becoming President of the US.

The victory that both Trump and Putin are now celebrating may yet turn out to be a Phyrric victory.

The scarlet thread of Maidan that binds them both is not so easily undone.

(to be continued)

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