Both Putin and Trump are now at 'panic stations'

Michael D. Shear and Nicholas Fandos (left) report that,

"Under pressure from Republicans and Democrats, the Trump administration on Thursday turned over to Congress a list of Russia-connected entities it will use to determine new sanctions meant to rebuke Russia for actions in Eastern Europe, Syria and the 2016 United States presidential election." (New York Times : Oct. 26, 2017) (my emphasis) (list of entities)

This is a list, however, simply to 'mollify' those, like Senator McCain (right), who had threatened to,

"  ... use his position as the chairman of the Armed Services Committee to try to force the Trump administration to comply [with the sanctions legislation that had been overwhelmingly passed by the US Congress in June, and had been signed by Trump in August]." (ibid Shear and Fandos) (my emphasis)

This list, however, simply signifies that it is,

"..... NOT an imposition of sanctions, but rather the government’s assessment of organizations or persons “that are part of, or operating for or on behalf of, the defense or intelligence sectors of the government of the Russian Federation.” (ibid Shear and Fandos) (my emphasis)

In other words, the imposition of sanctions against Russia passed by the Congress in June of this year has still NOT been implemented.

But the pressure on Trump continues to mount.

As reported by Denys Krasnikov,

"The United States is “actively considering” supplying lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, according to Kurt Volker (left), U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations.

U.S. State Department envoy Volker says the debate over sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine should not be as controversial as it is, given that Ukraine is simply defending itself." (KyivPost : Oct. 29 2017) (my emphasis)

 And according to UNIAN,

"Ukrainian lawmakers are optimistic that the White House will give the green light for long-sought weapons, according to the U.S.-based news publication Foreign Policy" (UNIAN: 27 October 2017) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the attempt by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto (left) to veto the NATO-Ukraine summit in December, has fallen flat on its face since,

"NATO says it had no plans to hold the Ukraine-NATO Commission meeting in December.

...

At the same time, the [NATO]  alliance noted it is committed to [a] strong partnership relations with Ukraine," (UNIAN: 28 October 2017) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker during a meeting with the Ukrainian lawmakers has said he is convinced that Russians cannot participate in the peacekeeping mission in Donbas, Ukrainian MP Mustafa Nayyem (right) wrote on Facebook." (UNIAN: 28 October 2017) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, according to Nayyem,

" ... it is critically important for Volker that the peacekeeping mission is militarized, not just monitoring, and act along the Russian-Ukrainian border that is now beyond Ukraine's control." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

These developments must be giving Putin serious cause for concern. 

The payback that Putin expected from getting Trump into the White House has simply not materialised. 

Compounding Putin's anxieties is the news that yet more substantial evidence about collusion between Putin and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections is seeing the light of day.

If Putin's anxieties are now being compounded by by the increasing evidence about just how himself and the Trump 'siloviki' colluded during the 2016 US presidential elections, Trump and his 'siloviki' themselves are now at panic stations since,

"A federal grand jury in Washington has approved the first criminal charges in the special counsel’s investigation into Russian election interference ...
....
Mueller's Special Counsel's Office will make public an indictment on Monday, a U.S. official with firsthand knowledge of the process confirmed to NBC News, without disclosing the name of the target or the nature of the charges" (Ken Dilanian, Phil Helsel and Phil McCausland : NBC News :
Oct 28 2017) (my emphasis)

Which of Trump's 'siloviki' will be charged with a criminal offense to-morrow, Monday 30 Oct. 2017?

More significantly, what will the criminal charges be?

Will these charges serve to hasten Trump's impeachment, adding to Putin's anxieties?

STOP PRESS!!

(to be continued)

Ksenia Sobchak will not save Putin when the Russian people turn against him

In 1992 Putin, whilst Deputy Mayor of St. Petersberg under Mayor Anatoly Sobchak, his former law professor, Putin commissioned a documentary about himself called "Power".

As Tim Molloy reports,

"In the film he commissioned, Putin, who was then deputy mayor, assured hungry residents that food was on its way.
.... But, as seen in the excerpt below from Putin’s Way, most of the promised food never arrived" (Frontline : January 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

We now learn from Shaun Walker that,

"Ksenia Sobchak, the [socialite] daughter of Vladimir Putin’s political mentor [Anatoly Sobchak, and rumoured to be Putin's God-daughter], has said she will stand in Russia’s presidential election next March, which Putin is expected to win.
...
Analysts said her candidacy looked like a Kremlin-backed “spoiler” campaign to boost the legitimacy of the elections and split the liberal opposition" (The Guardian : Wednesday 18 October 2017)

And as reported by Andrew Roth,

"Dmitry Peskov (left), Putin’s personal spokesman, told the channel [TV Rain] that her candidacy was seen as legitimate by the Kremlin." (Washington Post : October 18, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Is Putin taking a leaf out of the book of US president Donald Trump, who elected both his daughter, Ivanka Trump, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to senior positions in the White House?

Or is Putin showing the same contempt for the Russian people which he showed when pocketing millions of dollars in 1992 that was meant to assuage the hunger of the Russian people of St Petersberg. 

That Putin was protected by Anatoly Sobchak, father of Ksenia Sochak, even in light of all the evidence collected by Marine Salye (left), and which showed just how Putin and his cohorts embezzeled millions of dollars from the hungry residents of St. Petersberg in 1992, surely must be known by Ksenia Sobchak.

Indeed, the very financial legacy she inherited from her father, and which has allowed her to live her lavish lifestyle, is tainted by the fact that some of those monies she inherited from her father derives from that very embezzelment that Putin and his cohorts, including her father, perpetrated in 1992.

 Yet, as Andrew Roth further reports,

"In a campaign statement in the Russian daily Vedomosti that barely mentioned Putin and focused instead on public dissatisfaction with Russian politics, she said that she was “outside of ideology” and not a fan of Russia’s annexation of Crimea (though she denied being against it)."(ibid Andrew Roth) (my empahsis)

But, unlike Navalny (right), who claims that,

" ...   if he is elected president [of Russia], he is ready to withdraw Russian troops from the occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and hold a fair referendum in the Russian-annexed Crimea, according to the Russian independent television channel Dozhd." (UNIAN : 09 June 2017) (my emphasis)

nothing is being said by Ksenia Sobchak about Putin's war with Ukraine.

And whilst Ksenia Sobchak is deafeningly silent about Putin's war with Ukraine in the Donbas,

• Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 14 times in the past 24 hours, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press service of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters.(UNIAN: 22 October 2017) 
• Russia's hybrid military forces were most active in the Mariupol sector on Monday, October 23, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters. (UNIAN : 23 October)
• Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 22 times on Monday, October 23, as a result of which one Ukrainian soldier was wounded, according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters.(UNIAN : 24 October)

As Ksenia Sobchak is becoming the darling of Putin's propaganda TV network as an eligible presidential candidate, Andrew Osborn and Andrey Ostroukh report that,

"Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny held a political rally on Sunday [21 October], hours after being released from jail and pledged to continue his presidential campaign despite the authorities saying he is ineligible to stand.

.....

“We have more right to take part in the elections than all the other candidates combined,” Navalny wrote on his website." (Reuters : October 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Navalny being arrested October 2, 2017

Putin may have spiked Navalny's chances of appearing on the ballot paper as a candidate for the Russian presidency, and cynically placed his presumed God-daughter, Ksenia Sobchak, on that ballot paper, but he has not yet managed, together with US president Donald Trump, to spike the US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' for his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

 As stated yesterday by Jessica Tarlov (left),

"America must speak up louder in opposition to Putin’s twisted attempt to use U.N. peacekeepers to achieve his own strategic interests. We’ve heard from Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about how critical it is that we give our full support to Ukraine. " (Fox News : 23 October 2017)

And the US Senate, Congress, and Robert Mueller, continues to accumulate a mountain of evidence pointing to the collusion between Trump and his associates, and Putin and his 'siloviki', that gained the White House for Trump, in return for Trump releasing Putin from those US sanctions.

Putin now has almost to completely rely on the changing political climate in the EU moving in the direction of the lifting of EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clique.

But will the cynical throwing of Ksenia Sobchak to the Russian people as a political 'sex-symbol' opponent, a "Let them eat cake" political moment in the illusory presidential election campaign in Russia, be enough to deflect the eyes of the Russian people from their current economic sufferings, economic sufferings that Putin's actions in Crimea and the Donbas brought upon the Russian people?

As reported in the Moscow Times,

"... behind encouraging GDP demand and retail trade numbers Russians have become increasingly hooked on credits to keep their shopping baskets full, be that a basket of luxury items or a minimum subsistence one." (Moscow Times : Oct 10, 2017) (my emphasis)

Just as in 1992, when Putin and his kleptocratic cohorts, including Anatoly Sobchak, stole millions from from the hungry residents of St. Petersberg so, too, is Putin's kleptocracy now still stealing billions from the hungry people of Russia.

Putin's fear of how the Russian people will respond when he 'automatically' wins next years' Russian presidential election has forced him to throw the political 'sex-symbol', Ksenia Sobchak, into the Russian presidential race.

But Ksenia Sobchak will not save Putin when the Russian people turn against him.

(to be continued)

Is Putin worrying about the response of the Russian people to his presidential victory next year?

In February of this year (2 February,2017), shortly after President Trump's inauguration,  Lili Bayer (left) reported that,

"As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to make a rare trip to the European Union Thursday, his choice of destination — Hungary — reveals a shift in the Kremlin’s strategy in Europe following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Putin has met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán several times since the Hungarian leader came to power in 2010." (Politico-Eu: 2/2/17) (my emphasis)

She goes on to report that,

"...Putin and his entourage will be arriving in Hungary with one clear priority: to clarify and strengthen Orbán’s opposition to EU sanctions on Russia.

“There is a Russian hope that Orbán will step up against the sanctions, not just rhetorically,” said Deák. “For the Russians, it is important to find a European country that will be the first mover on this.” (ibid Lili Bayer) (my emphasis)

Fast foreward to October 2017, and UNIAN reports that Ukraine's new Education Law states that,

"Persons who belong to the indigenous peoples, national minorities of Ukraine, who have started to receive general secondary education before September 1, 2018, shall continue to receive such education by September 1, 2020, in accordance with the rules enforced before the new law becomes effective, with a gradual increase in the number of classes taught in Ukrainian." (UNIAN : 16 October 2017) (my emphasis)

And lo and behold ....

Just as Putin used the Russian language issue to invade and annex Unkrainian Crimea, and then subsequently to start a war with Ukraine in the Donbas, we now have Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto (right), ranting that,

“There is a brutal violation of the human rights in the neighborhood of the European Union since the Ukrainian parliament has passed the law on education where they violated very heavily the rights of the minorities as they have taken away the right of all the minorities to use exclusively their native language in education above the age of ten,” Szijjarto said, according to an UNIAN correspondent."
(ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

 Even more sinister,

"Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto later announced his country's intention to block any further rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU over the language row." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

It should come as no surprise that Putin's 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini,  High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is supportive of the Hungarian argument about minority violations. She stated that,

"Brussels will continue the dialogue with Kyiv on possible violations of minority rights with Ukraine’s new law on education based on the opinion of the Venice Commission due to be issued in December..." (UNIAN : 17 October 2017) (my emphasis)

Also, as Putin's propaganda mouthpiece Sputnik reports, it should also come as no surprise that,

"Trade between Russia and Hungary saw positive dynamics as it increased by up to 27 percent in the first half of 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday at a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban." (Sputnik : 28.08.2017) (my emphasis)
 

And as reported by Krisztina Than (left), 

"Trade ties between Russia and Hungary include a gas supply pact with Gazprom and a deal for Russia to finance and build a nuclear power plant. Construction is due to start next year." (Reuters: Sep. 29, 2017) 

But whilst Putin may be delighted with the threat of Orban to block any further rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU over the language row, and the implicit support being given to Orban's contrived argument by the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, things are not going too well in Ukrainian Crimea for Putin.  

• The water shortage in Crimea is having dire consequences, so much so that some think that Crimeans may have to be resettled, warning of a humanitarian crisis

• Some Crimeans are rueing the day that they voted in favour of Putin annexing Ukrainian Crimea
• The building of the bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea across the Kerch Strait continues to drain vast amounts of money away from Russia's internal infrastructure investment
• Russians are awakening to the true nature of the Putin regime

Just like Donald Trump's promise to build "a beautiful wall" between the US and Mexico, Putin is determined to build a "beautiful bridge" between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea, irrespective of the cost and suffering that the Russian people will have to endure in the process.

Trump, however,  continues to be weighed down by the mounting evidence of the collusion between himself and his acolytes, and Putin, during the 2016 US presidential elections. 

Trump's impeachment is now beginning to enter into the public arena, just as the exposure of Putin's interference in the US presidential election of 2016 continues to emerge into the light of day. (cf.: Patrick Reevell : Yahoo News : October 15, 2017, tvrain (Russian):14 октября, 2016)

Putin will be the winner in the 2018 Russian presidential elections, without the help of any interference from outside sources.

What is not certain for Putin is how the Russian people will respond to his electoral victory. 

(to be continued)

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that binds them together.

On the 5th of this month I wrote that,

"As reported by Patricia Zengerle,

"Two months after signing it, President Donald Trump has not begun enforcing a law imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senators John McCain (left) and Ben Cardin said in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday

Also, with just two days to go, his administration has not provided information related to Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors required under the measure by Sunday, they said." (Reuters :September 29, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Surkov and Volker's impending meeting could be due to Putin's awarness that the net of impeachment is now fast falling upon Trump." (blog entry: 5/10/2017)

This deadline has now passed, and Trump has, as yet, NOT signed into law the Sanctions Bill detailing sanctions against Putin because of his meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections, and which was passed UNANIMOUSLY by BOTH the US Senate and House of Congress.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (right) (MSNBC : The Rachel Maddow Show 12/10/17)

"The president signed the Russian sanctions bill on August 2nd (2017), and here's the interesting part ... signed it on August 2nd ... the thing he signed ... that new law ... gave him a deadline of October 1st to implement these new sanctions against Russia to punish them for attacking our election .... It's now October 12th, and those sanctions are not in place .. He [Trump] has not done anything ..."
 
US Congressman Adam Schiff (left), during Maddow's interview with him, also states that,

"One of the things alleged in the [Steele] dossier ... which we are investigating ... try to corroborate ... is the claim that there was an agreement (between Trump officials and Putin) to ease sanctions on [Russia] to get derogatory information on Hillary Clinton" (cf video below)

Flailing Trump is now also trying to 'legitimise' getting rid of incriminating information that not only exposes the 'collusion' between Putin and himself during the 2016 US presidential election, but also exposes the fact that his sacking of James Comey, former FBI director, was done soley to obstruct the FBI from gathering the information that categorically proves that such collusion took place.

It now transpires that, contrary to the Presidential Records Act,

"... Trump administration staffers were using special messaging applications designed to destroy the contents of communications inspired a lawsuit by two open government groups." (Adam Mazmanian (right): FCW : Oct 10, 2017) (my emphasis)

Adam Mazmanian goes on to further report that,

"The Justice Department, in a motion to dismiss the lawsuit, argues that the president [Trump] has near-total authority over the disposition of presidential records under the law." (ibid Mazmanian) (my emphasis)

The extent and degree to which Trump will go to eliminate evidence about his collussion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections seems to know no bounds.

More importantly, the extend and degree to which Trump will go to pay Putin back for helping him gain the White House by witholding signing into law the sanctions against Putin for his interference in the 2016 US presidential elections and, more significantly, also desperately trying to remove those US sanctions against Putin because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, also seems to know no bounds. 

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that continues to bind them together.

(to be continued)

Is Putin now beginning to be as desperate as Trump is to hold onto power?

On Monday (9/10/2017),

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said, during a visit to Ukraine, that Turkey won’t recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Erdogan said during Monday’s visit to Kiev that Turkey will continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity." (Washington Post (AP) : October 9, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin was quick to reply to this breaking news. 

As reported by his propaganda mouthpiece, RT, the head of the Russian Upper House Commission for Information Policy Senator Aleksey Pushkov stated that,

“Whether Erdoğan recognizes that Crimea belongs to Russia or not is not likely to change Crimea’s status. He knows that, and he simply says what Poroshenko likes to hear,”(RT:10 Oct, 2017) (my emphasis)

Aleksey Pushkov is desperately trying to downplay what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.

What he CANNOT downplay, however, is the fact that there is a growing dis-satisfaction amongst the Russian people that money is being poured into Ukrainian Crimea by Putin, at their expense.

As reported by Paul Goble, (left) (Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 8, 2017),

" Russian commentators also are concerned about people in the regions complaining about funding Crimea by taking money away from them and about unfunded liabilities that the center imposes without checking with them (polit.ru/article/2017/10/02/crimea/ and afterempire.info/2017/10/01/spb-bomb/)"

He goes on to report that,

"There are many ways  to measure the desperation of a population, but three reports this week suggest that an increasing number of Russians feel that way.

• some are attacking police in order to get arrested and be sentenced to prison where at least they will be fed (newsland.com/community/5652/content/sibiriak-razbil-litso-politseiskomu-chtoby-popast-v-tiurmu/6024004)
• Russian women are increasingly offering sexual favors to pay for rent (svpressa.ru/society/article/182408/)
•  Russians are now spending two billion rubles (30 million US dollars) on forture tellers who they hope can tell them something good is coming (svpressa.ru/society/article/182427/)
•  Ever more Russians are homeless, many are living on their credit cards, and all are facing rising prices for basic commodities like fish (ibid Paul Goble)

It is also against this backdrop that, as reported by Alec Luhn,

"Police detained more than 100 supporters of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny on Saturday as thousands rallied nationwide on President Vladimir Putin's 65th birthday, calling for the leader to retire. 
.........
[Navalny (right)] was arrested late last month and a court last week sentenced him to 20 days in jail on charges of repeatedly violating a law on organising public meetings." (The Telegraph : 7 October 2017) (my emphasis)

All of this is adding to Putin's desperation to have the US/EU sanctions lifted, that were brought against himself and his 'siloviki' clique because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his simmering war against Ukraine in the Donbas.

Even more concerning for Putin is the fact that Trump, himself, is also desperately flailing in his attempts to have the Steele dossier dis-credited, the dossier that outlines not only Trump's salacious behaviour in Russia but, more importantly, the now verified facts in the dossier about the collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US presidential election.

This desperation of Trump is further indicated by the fact that Congressman Nunes, who was recused from the Congressional investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections, took it upon himself to further try to spike investigations into the Steele dossier.

Rachel Maddow further queries whether US Congressman Nunes has the power to subpoena the head of the company that hired Steele, and that ultimately led to the Steele Dossier.

 

 

It is rather ironic that just as the members of the Russian Duma will always support Putin to ensure their status as members of the Russian Duma so, too, are the Republicans in the US Congress desperate to ensure their status as members of the US Congress by protecting Trump from being impeached, especially in view of the upcoming Congressional elections next year.

 

Russian Duma                                                      US Congress

Is Putin now beginning to be as desperate as Trump is to hold onto power?

(to be continued)

Will Trump's downfall also signal the downfall of Putin?

In my last blog entry I stated that,

"Angela Merkel's political wings have been clipped to the degree that we can safely assume the complete tearing up of the Minsk2 protocols which she has so assiduously championed since they were first drawn up." (blog entry : 2 October, 2017)

This is best illustrated by the fact that, as reported by Ukrinform,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel coordinate approaches for implementing an initiative to deploy a UN peacekeeping operation in Donbas." (Ukrinform : 05 October, Thursday, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall, however, as reported by Sabine Siebold and Paul Carrel,

"Putin told German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday that UN peacekeepers might be deployed not only on the Donbass contact line separating the sides of the conflict but in other parts where inspectors of the international OSCE monitoring group operate." (Reuters : September 14, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin specifically ruled out UN peacekeepers patrolling the border between the Ukrainian Donbas and Russia.

Given, therefore, that Putin has agreed to deploying UN peacekeepers in the Donbas why, as reported by Unian, will the

"United States special envoy for Ukraine negotiations Kurt Volker (left) [be holding] a meeting with Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov in Belgrade on October 7 to discuss ways to catalyze the implementation of Minsk agreements on Donbas settlement and restore Ukraine's territorial integrity.?" (Unian : 05 October 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the Vladislav Surkov, Putin's 'Grey Cardinal', who runs the Donbas for Putin.

More significantly, why is the public mention of Ukrainian Crimea being left out of this statement about this impending political meeting between Volker and Surkov in Belgrade?

 

Are we to assume that Ukrainian Crimea is included in the "restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity", even though Putin is forging ahead with building his Kerch Strait bridge, with the help of  2 Dutch companies, that will link Ukrainian Crimea with Russia?

There is another aspect of this impending meeting between Surkov and Volker that should not be ignored.

As reported by Patricia Zengerle,

"Two months after signing it, President Donald Trump has not begun enforcing a law imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senators John McCain (left) and Ben Cardin said in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday

Also, with just two days to go, his administration has not provided information related to Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors required under the measure by Sunday, they said." (Reuters :September 29, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Surkov and Volker's impending meeting could be due to Putin's awarness that the net of impeachment is now fast falling upon Trump.

Once Trump becomes fully ensnared in this net of impeachment, then those new US sanctions will rapidly be implemented.

And so Putin suggests UN peacekeepers in the Ukrainian Donbas that he now controls, whilst his 'Grey Cardinal', Vladislav Surkov, will have a tête-à-tête with Volker in Belgrade about "the implementation of Minsk agreements on Donbas settlement, and the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity".

The whirlwind of recent political events in Germany and, potentially, Austria, upon which Putin is banking to lift that millstone of EU sanctions around his neck, may yet prove for him to be but an empty wish.

 

Even the the fact that,

"Gerhard Schroeder, the man who Angela Merkel succeeded as Chancellor of Germany, has just been appointed to the chairman’s job at oil company Rosneft." (Geoffrey Smith : Fortune: Sep 29th, 2017) (my emphasis),

will not be able to give Putin the succour that he needs in light of the imminent denouement of Trump.

Will Trump's downfall also signal the downfall of Putin?

(to be continued)

Is Putin now in the driving seat that will determine the fate of Ukraine?

In my last blog I stated that,

"The fallout from the recent German elections is now beginning to take shape, and it is no wonder that Putin's mouthpiece, RT, is cozying up to the AfD political party that won 12.6% of the vote, and now contstitutes the 3rd largest political party in Germany.

Already one can hear the clinking glasses of champagne in the boardrooms of German business." (blog entry: 28 September, 2017)

Putin's jubilation at this result in the German elections stems primarily from the fact that it further adds pressure on Angela Merkel to move faster in the direction of supporting the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'. 

Putin's eyes are now firmly fixed on October 15, when 8.75 million Austrians head to the polls.

As Zoie O'Brien (left) reports,

" Sebastian Kurz, also known as "Wunderwuzzi" has successfully rebranded the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and looks set to propel them into Government in the coming elections.

The vote could spell trouble for the EU as 31-year-old Mr Kurz has not ruled out a partnership with the nationalist Freedom Party (FPO)." (Express : Sun, Oct 1, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall that in December 2016, when then Foreign Minister of Austria, Sebastian Kurz, was to take over the chairing of the OSCE in January 2017, one of his stated aims was,

" ... to seek through the organization a change of the EU sanctions policy toward Russia, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria Sebastian Kurtz has told Spiegel.

"We must once again restore trust here in Europe and shift from the path of sanctions with the system of penalties to the path of creating a system of incentives," said Kurz." (Unian : 30 December 2016) (my emphasis)

Coupled with the fact that Sebastian Kurz is the front-runner in the upcoming Austrian elections, Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee that Austria's Freedom Party, "founded in the 1950s by, among others, former Nazis", 

" ...  is riding high in the country’s opinion polls and has a good chance of joining any coalition government after elections on October 15, a year earlier than planned." (Ralph Atkins : Financial Times : May 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

Like its sister party in Germany, the AfD (Alternative for Germany), which has,

" ...taken a very pro-Russia stance, calling for Western sanctions against Moscow over its involvement in the Ukraine conflict to be dropped" (Frank Jordans : The Washington Post : Sept. 24, 2017)(my emphasis),


the  leader of the Freedom Party of Austria, Heinze-Christian Strache (left), similarly,

"... call[s] to lift "damaging and pointless international sanctions" against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea and its backing of separatists in the southeast of the country." (RFERL : December 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin-supported Right-Wing parties in Germany and Austria are gaining critical political power, Matthias Williams and Pavel Polityuk report that,

"Russia has left troops behind after staging war games in Belarus despite promising not to, Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Viktor Muzhenko told Reuters.

In an interview on a military plane on Thursday evening, Muzhenko said Russia has withdrawn only a few units from Belarus and had lied about how many of its soldiers were there in the first place" (Reuters : September 29, 2017) (my emphasis)  

Just prior to Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus, Poroshenko warned that,

" .... Russia could use massive military manoeuvres next week as a cover for invasion.

In a major speech, Mr Poroshenko said Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus might be "a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory". (BBC : 7 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

This warning of Poroshenko now has to be viewed against the backdrop of the success of the AfD party in Germany, and the expected success of the Freedom Party of Austria, BOTH of whom are calling for the lifting of sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique.

Angela Merkel's political wings have been clipped to the degree that we can safely assume the complete tearing up of the Minsk2 protocols which she has so assiduously championed since they were first drawn up.

The only thing that will now unseat Putin from being in the political driving seat and that will determine the fate of Ukraine will be the impeachment of Trump, and the full implementation of the support for Ukraine emanating from the US Senate and Congress, including the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

(to be continued)