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Monday 2 October 2017

Is Putin now in the driving seat that will determine the fate of Ukraine?

In my last blog I stated that,

"The fallout from the recent German elections is now beginning to take shape, and it is no wonder that Putin's mouthpiece, RT, is cozying up to the AfD political party that won 12.6% of the vote, and now contstitutes the 3rd largest political party in Germany.



Already one can hear the clinking glasses of champagne in the boardrooms of German business." (blog entry: 28 September, 2017)

Putin's jubilation at this result in the German elections stems primarily from the fact that it further adds pressure on Angela Merkel to move faster in the direction of supporting the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'. 

Putin's eyes are now firmly fixed on October 15, when 8.75 million Austrians head to the polls.

As











is riding high in the country’s opinion polls and has a good chance of joining any coalition government after elections on October 15, a year earlier than planned." (Ralph Atkins : Financial Times :






call[s] to lift "damaging and pointless international sanctions" against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea and its backing of separatists in the southeast of the country." (RFERL : December 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin-supported Right-Wing parties in Germany and Austria are gaining critical political power, Matthias Williams and Pavel Polityuk report that,

"Russia has left troops behind after staging war games in Belarus despite promising not to, Ukraine’s Commander in Chief Viktor Muzhenko told Reuters.

In an interview on a military plane on Thursday evening, Muzhenko said Russia has withdrawn only a few units from Belarus and had lied about how many of its soldiers were there in the first place" (Reuters : September 29, 2017) (my emphasis)  

Just prior to Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus, Poroshenko warned that,

" .... Russia could use massive military manoeuvres next week as a cover for invasion.

In a major speech, Mr Poroshenko said Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus might be "a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory". (BBC : 7 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

This warning of Poroshenko now has to be viewed against the backdrop of the success of the AfD party in Germany, and the expected success of the Freedom Party of Austria, BOTH of whom are calling for the lifting of sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique.

Angela Merkel's political wings have been clipped to the degree that we can safely assume the complete tearing up of the Minsk2 protocols which she has so assiduously championed since they were first drawn up.

The only thing that will now unseat Putin from being in the political driving seat and that will determine the fate of Ukraine will be the impeachment of Trump, and the full implementation of the support for Ukraine emanating from the US Senate and Congress, including the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

(to be continued)

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