Is Putin the emboldened, the political opportunist, getting ready to strike with his 'gas gambit'?

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"In other words, Putin seems to be emboldened to continue his war against Ukraine by the fact that :-

• the German political scene has handcuffed Merkel in vigorously continuing to orchestrate the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and
• Trump has not yet signed off on supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles." (blog entry : 25 November 2017)

We now have Christopher Miller (left) reporting that,

"Ukrainian officials and politicians have reacted with alarm to reports that the Council of Europe is considering lifting sanctions imposed against Russia over its military intervention in Crimea out of fears that Moscow might otherwise leave the body." (RFE/RL : 27 November 2017) (my emphasis)

This alarm of Ukrainian officials and politicians stems from the fact the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe, Thorbjørn Jagland (right), is touring the capitals of the EU, warning that Moscow could withdraw or crash out of the 47-member body unless its demands are met.

“Nobody wants to give a signal that we accept the annexation of Crimea. It is not about undermining this position of principle. But . . . we have to keep in perspective: what is our mandate. Our mandate is to protect human rights in Russia and Crimea, or wherever people live on the continent.” ( Neil Buckley (right): Financial Times :November 26, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Neil Buckley further reports that,

“It would really be very, very bad if Russia was to leave . . . because the convention and court has been so important for Russian citizens,” Mr Jagland told the FT in an interview.

 “It will be a negative development for Europe, because we will have a Europe without Russia. It would be a big step back for Europe.” " (ibid Neil Buckley) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's ambassador to the Council of Europe, Dmytro Kuleba (right), argues that Putin's threats about leaving the Council of Europe are empty. (ibid Neil Buckley)

As further reported by Neil Buckley,

"Opponents of an unconditional deal with Russia say that it would set a precedent for others accused of backsliding on democracy, such as Hungary and Poland, and for Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have serious disputes with the council." (ibid Neil Buckley) (my emphasis)

Thorbjørn Jagland's arguments ring hollow when viewed against the failure of the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) in relation to Ukrainian cases submitted in 2014, the year of the Maidan revolution.

In 2014 the ECHR received a total of 14,198 applications that were allocated to a 'Judicial Formation'.( cf: The ECHR in facts & figures - 2014 - European Court of Human Rights ) 

Of these cases,

• 12,731 were declared INADMISSABLE, and only
• 1,073 received a Judicial Judgement

In other words, 89% of Ukrainian cases in 2014 were thrown out by the ECHR, cases that arose during the years when Victor Yanukovich (left) was President of Ukraine, and who fled with billions of dollars stolen from the people of Ukraine into the 'protective' arms of Putin in 2014.

What is extremely disconcerting about Thorbjørn Jagland traipsing across Europe and pushing Putin's blackmail about leaving the Council for Europe is that, as reported by Neil Buckley,

"Mr Jagland denied rumours that Moscow officials had threatened a pullout in private meetings with him.
...
“My understanding is that this may happen,” he said. “The big political question is do we want this political development." (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin has been somewhat subtle about blackmailing Trump to stop him from signing off on that $47 million grant package, that would include Javelin anti-tank missiles, with Thorbjørn Jagland, Putin has adopted an in-your-face threatening blackmail posture.

 Josh Rogin neatly sums up Putin's subtle approach in handling Trump and his 'White House siloviki'.

"After playing into Russia’s hands on Syria, the Trump administration now risks repeating the error in Ukraine, where diplomatic discussions over a Russian initiative are heating up. Moscow’s plan is to legitimize its invasion and control over parts of two eastern provinces [of Ukraine] by drawing President Trump into another bad deal." (Washington Post : November 26, 2017) (my emphasis)

As winter now begins to set in across Europe, will Putin use the 'gas gambit' to further pressure the EU to drop sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki'?

Is Putin the emboldened, the political opportunist, getting ready to strike with his 'gas gambit'?

(to be continued)