Putin receiving his first paycheck from Trump

Donald Trump has given his State Of The Union (SOTU) address yesterday, following his announcement on Monday that,

"The Trump administration told Congress on Monday [29 Jan., 2018] that bipartisan legislation passed last year authorizing new sanctions on Russia is already "serving as a deterrent," and there's no need to actually implement the penalties at this time.“By limiting the executive’s flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together,” Trump said in a statement at the time. (Olivia Beavers : The Hill : 29 Jan., 2018) (cf. also : Rob Crilly : The Telegraph : 30 Jan., 2018)

Putin is finally publicly receiving his 'payback' from Trump for helping him win the US presidency.

Throughout yesterday's SOTU address Trump was deafeningly silent about  Putin's direct interference in the 2016 US presidential elections that got him elected to the White House.

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' are no doubt sighing with relief now that Trump has stymied the sanctions bill against them that was overwhelmingly supported by BOTH the US Senate and the House of Congress .

I am speculating that both Putin and Trump now have their sights on removing the sanctions that were implemented following Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, notwithstanding the fact that in his recent meeting with that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [of State, Rex Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement.(RFERL : 24 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Tillerson is emphasizing the need for an acceleration of the implementation of Putin's Minsk2 protocols, Kurt Volker, Tillerson's US representative in Ukraine, stated that,

"During a press briefing set up via telephone from New York, Volker (right) said that the number of peacekeepers that may be deployed in Donbas had not been discussed during the latest talks, according to an UNIAN correspondent. 
...
“We didn’t talk about that [the number of peacekeepers],” he said, adding that the sides are still trying to figure out and agree on the mission’s mandate, and he is yet to “hear back” from the Russians on the issue. (UNIAN : 29 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

To which the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin (left), yesterday responded that,

"Unfortunately, during the meeting [between Volker and Russia’s Vladislav Surkov] no result was achieved, but we will consistently press for the implementation of the [Minsk agreements implementation] road map logic, and I hope that the latest developments, including on the American side, will also, let's say, ‘help’ [Russia] understand that their [Russian] proposals regarding bodyguards for SMM make no sense. Instead, a real peacekeeping mission is needed," Klimkin said. (UNIAN : 30 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 These two developments viz.

• Trump refusing to implement the new sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' clique, and
• Volker NOT discussing the peacekeeper issue with Putin acolyte Surkov

 are ominous signs for Ukraine.

(to be continued)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet prove to be Putin's denouement.

Every president always has an eye on their historical legacy. With Putin, one can safely say that he has both his eyes on his historical legacy.

And the central feature upon which he has staked his historical legacy is the Kerch Strait bridge that finally cements, in his mind, that Ukrainian Crimea is a part of Russia.

Like Donald Trump, who has promised the US people to build a "beautiful" wall between the US and Mexico, Putin has promised the Russian people a land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia.

To succeed in building this land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia, it is absolutely necessary for Putin to keep his war with Ukraine bubbling over.

As reported by the OSCE monitoring commission to Ukraine,

"In continuation of the sequence of ceasefire violations recorded in the early evening of 22 January (see SMM Daily Report 23 January 2018), on the evening and night of 22-23 January the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (15km north of Donetsk) recorded 33 undetermined explosions, 158 projectiles in flight (98 from west to east, 59 from east to west, and one from north-west to south-east) and 11 tracer rounds in flight (all from west to east), all 0.5-1km south.

The following evening, the same camera recorded two projectiles in flight from east to west followed by three projectiles in flight from west to east, all 0.5-1km south.

In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded one ceasefire violation (an explosion); it had recorded about 230 explosions in the previous reporting period.) (OSCE : 24 January, 2018)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, has recently stated that,

"I think the Minsk agreements contain all the elements necessary for this to be resolved. What is lacking is not the content, what's lacking is political will [on the part of Putin].." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

RFERL further reports that,

"The U.S. special envoy for Ukraine said the country's new law on reintegrating its conflict-torn regions has "regularized" the country's military operation against Russia-backed separatists, but doesn't change anything on the ground." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

To-morrow, Kurt Volker will be meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, (left: Surkov and Volker) where he is,

"... planning to reiterate the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict: that Moscow withdraw its forces and its "proxy entities," allow for a UN peacekeeping force, help create security on the ground, and then help fulfill the Minsk accords." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

At the same time as Kurt Volker is planning to meet with Surkov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has had a phone conversation with his old Russian buddy, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and emphasized that,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Volker and Tillerson are, ostensibly, continuing to use diplomatic channels to try and resolve Putin's war with Ukraine peacefully, Putin's Russian TV propaganda tool is cheering the fact that the first stage of the Kerch bridge is nearing completion.

But whilst Putin may be flushed with the near success over the realization of his legacy, a bridge that will forever be known as "Putin's Bridge", Putin's generals are slightly disconcerted by its vulnerability to missile attack.

Russia News Today reports that,

"Earlier, the Deputy chief of the General staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko (left) said that the Crimean bridge is vulnerable to aircraft and missiles, ground and sea-based." (Russia News Today : 30.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Recognizing this vulnerability,

"The first Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on defense and security Frants Klintsevich (right), in turn, reminded that the bridge is primarily a civilian target, not military. The Senator, however, warned that in the event of a threat to «ceremony» no one will....
...
«We have enough forces and means, which already ensures a security of the object. In the event of any threat will be followed by an adequate response,» he said." (ibid Russia News Today) (my emphasis)
  
Frants Klintsevich, by trying to define Putin's Kerch bridge as a purely "civilian" bridge, rather beggars belief.

But, as I stated in my previous blog entry,

"Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an adversary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them." (blog entry :19 January, 2018)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet, however, prove to be Putin's denouement.

Let us not forget that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington Post (AP): 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin now has to tread very very carefully.

In my blog entry of 3rd January 2018 I wrote that,

"Can it therefore be a co-incidence that just yesterday (2nd Jan., 2018),

"Ukrainian positions outside the village of Hnutove in the Mariupol sector came under fire from 82mm mortars, cannons of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns, and small arms. 

In addition, the enemy resorted to the entire range of infantry weapons to attack the defensive fortifications of the ATO forces around the village of Vodiane several times. In total, there were six attacks on the Ukrainian army in the past day." (UNIAN : 03 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, who had no other option but to supply Ukraine with those deadly Javelin anti-tank missiles, and who now sees the noose of impeachment descending around his neck, Putin and his generals are now staring into the abyss of being militarily repulsed from gaining their much coveted landbridge into annexed Ukrainian Crimea."

And yesterday, the Washington Post (AP) reports that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington POst (AP) : 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

The response of Putin to the passing of this Ukrainian Bill, as reported by The Independent, was to claim that,

"The Russian foreign ministry sees Ukraine's efforts to denounce Moscow as an "aggressor country" as evidence that it is preparing for a "new war", according to Russian media." (The Independent: Thursday 18 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Similarly, as reported by RFERL,

"The Russian Foreign Ministry later said in a statement, "You cannot call this anything but preparation for a new war," and warned that the bill "risked a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with unpredictable consequences for world peace and security." (RFERL : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
What is significant about the passing of this bill is that,

"Arseniy Yatseniuk, whose party forms the backbone of Ukraine’s ruling coalition with Mr Poroshenko’s political bloc, said the legislation also sets a legal framework to “remove the Russian army from Ukrainian territory” through a peacekeeping force sanctioned by the UN." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This bill puts the final nail in the coffin of Putin's Minsk2 proposals.

Putin now wants a "new war" with Ukraine, and is using an invented story about the killing of two Russian soldiers in the Ukrainian Crimea that he annexed in 2014, as a pretext to prevent the very UN peacekeeping force that he, himself, originally suggested, from entering the Donbas. (cf. also Al Jazeera video)

Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an advesary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them.

Putin now has to factor publicly exposed Russian casualties into any military adventure he may venture to take against the battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.

As Prime Minister in October 1999, Putin set in motion the second Chechen war that, in the words of Anna Politkovskaya (left) "... brutalised both Chechen fighters and conscript soldiers in the federal army, and created hell for the civilians caught between them..." (Wikipedia).   

And in the wake of his brutality in Chechnya, Putin became President of Russia.

But will the Russian people continue to shower Putin with plaudits as the body bags of Russian soldiers from a Ukrainian war front begin to mount?

(to be continued)

2018 has just begun, and already Putin's woes are hanging heavily on his mind

Just as the winter holidays have ended, UNIAN reports that,

"Permanent Representative of Bulgaria, the country now presiding over the European Union, Ambassador Dimiter Tzantchev (left), said that Sofia will adhere to the principles adopted by the EU Council on sanctions against Russia, and so far there are no conditions for their lifting, an UNIAN correspondent reported.
......
[Dmiter] Tzantchev said. "We’ll stick to the five principles of relations with Russia approved by the Council in March 2016. Full implementation of the Minsk agreements by all sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine is an important condition for the change in EU relations with Russia. At present, this condition has not been fulfilled," he said. The ambassador stressed that the EU "insists that Russia fully respect international law." (UNIAN : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This blow to Putin has been further compounded by the fact that,

"Beginning in February, the U.S. Treasury Department will submit the details on possible expanded sanctions, though their general targets — sovereign debt and oligarchs — are already known.
...
In its February report, the Treasury Department will detail the effects on Russia and the global market of possible sanctions on U.S. citizens who buy new Russian domestic government debt. 
...
If the United States implements sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, Western investors (beyond American) could be spooked away from buying it." (Stratfor : Dec. 18, 2017)

Now recall that,

"In July, the U.S. Congress wrested the power to directly withdraw the Russian sanctions away from the presidency, and [US] lawmakers now require that changes to the sanctions regime go through them first. President Donald Trump signed the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in August, and it included provisions for expanding penalties in the coming years." (ibid Stratfor)

Trump, therefore, cannot lift the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck. Nor can he stymie the US Congress from adding more sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.

Futher exacerbating Putin's woes as we enter 2018 is the fact that Canada may sign on to a "European Plan for Ukraine".

As Steven Chase reports, 

"Lithuania is urging Canada to sign on to a long-term package of support for Ukraine that would funnel more investment into the Eastern European country and strengthen its ties with the West as Kiev struggles to fight internal corruption and rebuild its economy despite a war with Moscow-backed militants. 

...

The Lithuanian government in concert with Ukraine is championing what is provisionally called a "European Plan for Ukraine" and would disburse an estimated $7.47-billion annually to Ukrainian recipients for a period of 10 years.

.....

More than 1.3 million Canadians, including Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland (left), can trace their heritage to Ukraine, where Canada is currently training Ukrainian soldiers to fight the Moscow-backed rebels." (The Globe and Mail : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This "European Plan for Ukraine" may gain more momentum now that Angela Merkel is on the verge of creating a stable coalition with Germany's Social Democrats.

As reported by Leigh Boobyer,

"The embattled German leader of the CDU met with SPD leader Martin Shulz today to set out the structure of exploratory talks in an initial meeting, alongside CSU leader Horst Seehofer.
...
The talks resulting in an initial programme of government will begin on Sunday 7, and should be completed by January 11.
...

All sides talked of growing confidence today, which will be seen as good news for Ms Merkel, whose reputation as Europe’s consensus-builder is one line in this second bid to form a coalition after weeks of sniping between its would-be partners. (Express : Wed, Jan 3, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's woes, however, do not end with the threat of more sanctions hanging over his head, nor by the fact that Angela Merkel may succeed in creating a stable coalition government which may then also lend its support for "A European plan for Ukraine". 

Putin now has also to contend with the fact that his most wealthy and supportive Ukrainian oligarch during the Yanukovich era is having big chunks of his assets frozen.

We now learn that,

"Rinat Akhmetov, (left :Yanukovich and Akhmetov) Ukraine’s richest man, has been served with an order from a Cyprus court freezing $820m of his assets in a long-running legal dispute with a rival over the country’s biggest fixed-line telecoms group." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : January 6, 2018)

Roman Olearchyk further reports that,

"The Cyprus ruling means that three out of Ukraine’s five richest oligarchs now have asset freezes of varying sizes in place against them. In an unrelated case last month, the High Court in London granted an order to freeze more than $2.5bn of assets belonging to Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov, linked to the near-collapse of PrivatBank, Ukraine’s biggest commercial lender which they then owned, in 2016." (ibid Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

Then we have another Putin supportive Ukrainian oligarch, Dmitry Firtash, exiled and stuck in Austria, awaiting possible extradition to the US on corruption charges.

And as Kim Janssen reported in February of last year,

"The oligarch’s [Dmitry Firtash] business dealings with [Paul] Manafort are detailed in court filings in a separate, civil case in New York and add an intriguing wrinkle to a case that already had the potential for wide-ranging repercussions. Manafort’s ties to Russia are under federal investigation, according to The New York Times." (Chicago Tribune : February 21, 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the same Paul Manafort who, as reported by Andrew Prokop,

"... .. ran Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for several months in 2016, [and who] was indicted [..]  as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. Manafort’s former business partner Rick Gates, who also worked on the Trump campaign, was also indicted. You can read the full indictment here." (VOX : Oct 30, 2017) (my emphasis)

2018 has only begun, and already Putin's woes must be hanging heavily on his mind.

Neither can Putin depend on his woes being lifted by the fact that Republicans in both the Senate and the House of Congress are circling their wagons around Trump, hoping to successfully defend Trump against the continuing onslaught of evidence about his collusion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections.

 (cf: Joe Scarborough: MSNBC : 8 January,2018)

(to be continued)

Like a cornered rat, Putin and his generals are now lashing out.

Firstly, I would like to thank all my readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

The year 2017 has seen the dark and foreboding clouds of impeachment continuing to gather over the head of Donald Trump, as the collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections continues to emerge into the light of day.

As recently as November 9th, 2017, Putin was stating that,

"I have big suspicions that in response to our alleged interference in their elections, they want to create problems during the election of the president of Russia. " (Noah Friedman and Lamar Salter : Business Insider : Dec. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as recently as Dec. 27, 2017, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (left) stated that,

" ..... criticism over opposition leader Alexei Navalny's blocked presidential bid, saying it amounted to "meddling in the Russian elections."

"This statement by the U.S. Department of State, which I'm sure will not be the only one, is a direct interference into the electoral process and the state's domestic affairs," Zakharova said in comments carried by state-owned TASS news agency." (USA Today : Dec. 27, 2017) ( my emphasis)

The feebleness of Putin's continuous 'mantra' that he did NOT collude with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, primarily to get those US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' off his back, and that was brought about by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, as well as his continuing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, continues to prey on his mind.

And whilst Putin continues to mouth his 'mantra' that him and his Kremlin 'siloviki' did not get Trump into the White House, Glenn R. Simpson and Peter Fritsch report that,

"The [US Senate and Congressional] intelligence committees  have known for months that credible allegations of collusion between the Trump camp and Russia were pouring in from independent sources [e.g Australia] during the campaign" (New York Times : Jan. 2, 2018) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in my last blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Can it therefore be a co-incidence that just yesterday (2nd Jan., 2018),

"Ukrainian positions outside the village of Hnutove in the Mariupol sector came under fire from 82mm mortars, cannons of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, machine guns, and small arms. 

In addition, the enemy resorted to the entire range of infantry weapons to attack the defensive fortifications of the ATO forces around the village of Vodiane several times. In total, there were six attacks on the Ukrainian army in the past day." (UNIAN : 03 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, who had no other option but to supply Ukraine with those deadly Javelin anti-tank missiles, and who now sees the noose of impeachment descending around his neck, Putin and his generals are now staring into the abyss of being militarily repulsed from gaining their much coveted landbridge into annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

And like a cornered rat, Putin and his generals are now lashing out.

(to be continued)