The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet prove to be Putin's denouement.

Every president always has an eye on their historical legacy. With Putin, one can safely say that he has both his eyes on his historical legacy.

And the central feature upon which he has staked his historical legacy is the Kerch Strait bridge that finally cements, in his mind, that Ukrainian Crimea is a part of Russia.

Like Donald Trump, who has promised the US people to build a "beautiful" wall between the US and Mexico, Putin has promised the Russian people a land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia.

To succeed in building this land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia, it is absolutely necessary for Putin to keep his war with Ukraine bubbling over.

As reported by the OSCE monitoring commission to Ukraine,

"In continuation of the sequence of ceasefire violations recorded in the early evening of 22 January (see SMM Daily Report 23 January 2018), on the evening and night of 22-23 January the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (15km north of Donetsk) recorded 33 undetermined explosions, 158 projectiles in flight (98 from west to east, 59 from east to west, and one from north-west to south-east) and 11 tracer rounds in flight (all from west to east), all 0.5-1km south.

The following evening, the same camera recorded two projectiles in flight from east to west followed by three projectiles in flight from west to east, all 0.5-1km south.

In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded one ceasefire violation (an explosion); it had recorded about 230 explosions in the previous reporting period.) (OSCE : 24 January, 2018)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, has recently stated that,

"I think the Minsk agreements contain all the elements necessary for this to be resolved. What is lacking is not the content, what's lacking is political will [on the part of Putin].." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

RFERL further reports that,

"The U.S. special envoy for Ukraine said the country's new law on reintegrating its conflict-torn regions has "regularized" the country's military operation against Russia-backed separatists, but doesn't change anything on the ground." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

To-morrow, Kurt Volker will be meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, (left: Surkov and Volker) where he is,

"... planning to reiterate the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict: that Moscow withdraw its forces and its "proxy entities," allow for a UN peacekeeping force, help create security on the ground, and then help fulfill the Minsk accords." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

At the same time as Kurt Volker is planning to meet with Surkov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has had a phone conversation with his old Russian buddy, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and emphasized that,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Volker and Tillerson are, ostensibly, continuing to use diplomatic channels to try and resolve Putin's war with Ukraine peacefully, Putin's Russian TV propaganda tool is cheering the fact that the first stage of the Kerch bridge is nearing completion.

But whilst Putin may be flushed with the near success over the realization of his legacy, a bridge that will forever be known as "Putin's Bridge", Putin's generals are slightly disconcerted by its vulnerability to missile attack.

Russia News Today reports that,

"Earlier, the Deputy chief of the General staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko (left) said that the Crimean bridge is vulnerable to aircraft and missiles, ground and sea-based." (Russia News Today : 30.12.2017) (my emphasis)

Recognizing this vulnerability,

"The first Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on defense and security Frants Klintsevich (right), in turn, reminded that the bridge is primarily a civilian target, not military. The Senator, however, warned that in the event of a threat to «ceremony» no one will....
...
«We have enough forces and means, which already ensures a security of the object. In the event of any threat will be followed by an adequate response,» he said." (ibid Russia News Today) (my emphasis)
  
Frants Klintsevich, by trying to define Putin's Kerch bridge as a purely "civilian" bridge, rather beggars belief.

But, as I stated in my previous blog entry,

"Putin, however, now has to tread rather carefully. 

Those "little Green Men" of his that invaded, and then occupied, Ukrainian Crimea without a drop of blood being shed will now have to face an adversary that not only is battle hardened but, more importantly, now has the military capability to push back forcefully against any ground forces that Putin may care to throw at them." (blog entry :19 January, 2018)

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet, however, prove to be Putin's denouement.

Let us not forget that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington Post (AP): 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)