The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

In 2014 Toni Frisch (left), Swiss Ambassador 

and the Chair of the Military and Civil Defense Assets Consultative Group of the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG), gave a presentation to the OSCE. 

The OSCE has published no information about this presentation except to state that,

"The views, opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this document [ Toni Frisch's presentation] are not given nor necessarily endorsed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) unless the OSCE is explicitly defined as the Author of this document." (OSCE : 20 May, 2014)

Fast forward to yesterday [14 February 2018] and Toni Frisch is now the OSCE special representative to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk.

First Deputy Speaker of [Ukrainian] Parliament, Iryna Gerashchenko (left) now informs us that,

" ....  the Ukrainian representatives in Minsk today were confused with "the strange fact that the OSCE coordinator Toni Frisch, as it turned out, had met with Vladislav Surkov's adviser in Moscow and did not inform the group and the TCG about the meeting or its outcome." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov (left) preceded, as reported by UNIAN, that,

"The working groups of the trilateral contact group on Ukraine have gathered in Minsk for talks, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The talks will be followed by a meeting of the trilateral contact group, BelTA reported." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

This recent secretive meeting between Frisch and Surkov also comes amidst the fact that, as reported by Henry Ridgwell,

"A U.N. peacekeeping force in eastern Ukraine could pave the way for local elections within a year, according to a new report that aims to build on international momentum behind establishing such a mission.

...

The new report, commissioned by former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen (right), now an adviser to Ukraine's president, calls for a peacekeeping force of 20,000 soldiers from non-NATO countries, led by Sweden." (VOA : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The fact that Rasmussen excludes NATO countries from participating in this peacekeeping force will rather wrong-foot Putin.

Which excuse, now, will Putin be able to muster to reject Rasmussen's proposal given that he, himself, first suggested in September, 2017, that,

"Russia will ask the U.N. Security Council to send peacekeepers to patrol the front line in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, a development greeted by Germany as a new opportunity for detente." (Nataliya Vasilyeva : US News (AP) : Sept. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as Rasmussen is proposing a UN peacekeeping force of 20,000 in the Donbas,  UNIAN reports that,

"Today another 2500 Night Vision Devices were transferred to our partners in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine wrote on Facebook.

...

It was also reported that the draft federal budget of the United States of America for 2019 provides for the allocation of $200 million for strengthening Ukraine's security and defense." (UNIAN : 14 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

The exposure of the Frisch-Surkov secret meeting, together with the Rasmussen proposal of a 20,000 non-NATO peace-keeping force in the Donbas, and more US military equipment both arriving in, and promised to, Ukraine, rather puts into perspective the weak threats of Putin, as mouthed by his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

[More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis) (blog entry 12 February)] 

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that the American public is now becoming more aware of the direct link between Putin's fervent wish to have US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' scrapped, and his collusion with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, that led to Trump now sitting in the White House.

And more disconcerting for both Trump and Putin is the fact that the more 'salacious' details in the Christopher Steele dossier have indirect corroborating evidence from Trump's cavorting with a US 'lady of the night', "Stormy Daniels" (right), and the 'hush money' paid to her to keep quiet a month before the 2016 US presidential elections. 

Is the public exposure by Putin of those 'salacious' video-details of Trump in the Christopher Steele dossier his 'black-mailing' card against Trump?

The net is closing around Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

To understand Putin's growing anxieties about the sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki', one need look no further than the rather dire straits of the Russian economy.

 As reported by Paul Goble, (left)

• According to a new study by the IMF, 33.7 percent of the Russian economy is outside of the legal sphere ... 
• A new investigation by the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service finds that more than 90 percent of Russian industry now depends in whole or in part on imports, a major reason for concern at a time of sanctions (my emphasis)
• In many countries, consumer spending drives economic growth, but in Russia today, the share of the population which is poor is so high that this is not the case (my emphasis).
  
•  A Russian business group says that its analysis shows that conditions for the operation of businesses are far worse in the Russian Federation than they are in Kazakhstan or Belarus 

TASS now also reports that,

"The outcome of the latest meeting between Russian president’s aide Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker is not hopeless, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) said in an interview ...  on Sunday." 
...
"Not long ago, they had another meeting. I would say that the outcome is not hopeless," the Russian top diplomat noted. "They agreed to continue such talks." (TASS : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis)

Lavrov continued,

"I believe that the one who will take the first step toward scrapping the Minsk agreements will make a colossal mistake. 
...
In fact, the Kyiv authorities are only one step away from this mistake, that’s if they finally pass the law on reintegration, which they now passed in the second reading. We'll see," said Lavrov." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Responding to these 'veiled threats' of Lavrov, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, Mariana Betsa (left), wrote on Twitter.

"Scrapping the Minsk agreements is non-fulfillment by Russia, by their side, of their obligations, and the ongoing aggression," (UNIAN : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
The 'Law on Reintegration' being referred to by Lavrov basically states that,

[Russia shall be held liable for moral, financial or physical damage inflicted on the State of Ukraine, government authorities and local self-government agencies, individuals and legal entities. 

According to the draft law, the launch and completion of measures to ensure national security and defense, repel and deter Russia's armed aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions shall be enacted by separate decisions by the President of Ukraine. (ibid UNIAN)]

And underlining Mariana Betsa's statement, Stephen Blank (right) argues that,

"Russia refuses to accept a negotiated outcome that entails its retreat from the Donbas or Crimea. Moscow now insists that Ukraine accede to the suicidal Minsk II agreement that would effectively convert Ukraine into a confederation whose sovereignty could be punctured at any point by the Donbas" (The Atlantic Council: January 24, 2018) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian economy is going South, and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is trying to put a positive gloss on the Volker-Surkov meetings about Ukraine, whilst also issuing 'veiled threats' about sending more sophisticated arms to Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Ukrainian Donbas, TASS also reports that,

"Russia’s National Guard [created by Putin in 2016], also known as Rosgvardiya, said it would crack down on unauthorized rallies during the [2018] Russian presidential election, Head of the National Guard’s Main Directorate for Public Order Protection Alexey Zinin told reporters on Thursday." (TASS : January 18,2018)

As also recently reported by the BBC, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for elite soldiers in a new force - the National Guard - to protect the country's regional governors."
 ....
"The National Guard, launched last year [2016], is headed by Mr Putin's ex-bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a longstanding ally. (left: Zolotov and Putin)
...
"Mr Putin has previously warned that Russia must protect itself from "colour revolutions" like those that toppled presidents in neighbouring Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan." (BBC : November 2017) (my emphasis) 

Joe Ankier 6 April, 2016

Which rather raises the question,

"Why is Putin suddenly 'beefing up' his 'National Guard' with a force of elite soldiers, whilst at the same time threatening to counter the Javelin anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US by sending more sophisticated arms to his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas?"

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

(to be continued)

Putin now lives on 'hopes' ...

Angela Merkel has finally managed to create a coalition government with Martin Schulz, leader of the SPD party.

But in the process she has had to relinquish CDU control of the Finance and Foreign Affairs Ministries to the SDP.

As reported by Will Kirby,

"Martin Schulz, (left) the embattled leader of the Social Democrats (SPD), will take over as foreign minister in a move likely to infuriate the German voters who opted for more eurosceptic parties in last year’s election." (Express : Wed, Feb 7, 2018) (my emphasis)

 This is the same Martin Schulz who,

• Speaking in December [2017], Mr Schulz called on EU member states to sign up to a “United States of Europe” by 2025 or risk being kicked out of the bloc. (ibid Will Kirby) (my emphasis)

•  ... stated as recently as 5 months ago (September 2017), “The way I see the situation, Russians have turned it [Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea] into an accomplished fact and they will insist on it,” he said. Schulz added that Crimea’s reunification with Russia was a “serious violation of international law” although Russian president Putin has insisted that the referendum that was held to join Russia, had been strictly in accordance with international law." (Free West Media : September 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

• ... and in 2016, stated that, "Sanctions will be maintained and they will continue to be applied until Minsk agreements are completely fulfilled," - said Schulz in his doorstep statement before the start of the EU summit, adding that the Minsk deal must be implemented by all parties to the conflict." (UNIAN : 20 October 2016) (my emphasis)

But hardly had Schulz time to warm the seat as Germany's new Foreign Minister when he had to relinquish this dream of his following being attacked by his predecessor as [SDP] party leader, Sigmar Gabriel (right), who is also the outgoing foreign minister.

As reported by  Ivo Oliveira,

"But when the new coalition deal was announced on Wednesday, it swiftly became clear that Schulz intended to become foreign minister. On Friday, Schulz bowed to the backlash against his plan.

“I hereby forgo joining the federal government,” he said. “At the same time, I sincerely hope that this will end the personnel debates within the SPD.” (Politico : 9 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

 Let us not forget, however, that this same Sigmar Gabriel who denounced Martin Schulz, is also in full support of  Putin's controversial plan to build Nord Stream 2 between Russia and Germany, and which could lead to German companies coming under the threat of being sanctioned by the US.

As reported by Matthew Karnitschnig,

“Now is a good time for us to intensify our economic cooperation,” Gabriel said during a visit to St. Petersburg in late November [2017]. “We’ve always known Russia as an especially reliable gas supplier.” (Politico : 13/12/17) (my emphasis)


Putin cannot, however, rest assured that Trump will not impose sanctions against those German companies helping him to complete his Nord Stream 2 project since Trump is having a "bad hair day" with the Mueller investigation into the collusion between himself and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Just as Nixon tried to get rid of Archibald Cox, a special prosecutor appointed by the attorney general to investigate the Watergate burglary, and that ultimately led to Nixon resigning from the US presidency, Trump is now also attempting to set the scene for him being able to fire Robert Mueller from investigating the collusion between Putin and himself during the 2016 US presidential election.

Trump's desperation to protect his presidency, like Nixon before him, is however leading him closer to the scaffold of impeachment.

Putin can only hope that whoever becomes the next Foreign Minister of Germany will be sympathetic towards BOTH the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline AND his 'fait accompli' annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.

He also hopes that Trump manages to rid himself of Mueller and the 'Russia Investigation' into his collusion with the Trump campaign during the 2016 US presidential elections without Trump, in the process, being impeached.

(to be continued)