"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

To understand Putin's growing anxieties about the sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki', one need look no further than the rather dire straits of the Russian economy.

 As reported by Paul Goble, (left)

• According to a new study by the IMF, 33.7 percent of the Russian economy is outside of the legal sphere ... 
• A new investigation by the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service finds that more than 90 percent of Russian industry now depends in whole or in part on imports, a major reason for concern at a time of sanctions (my emphasis)
• In many countries, consumer spending drives economic growth, but in Russia today, the share of the population which is poor is so high that this is not the case (my emphasis).
  
•  A Russian business group says that its analysis shows that conditions for the operation of businesses are far worse in the Russian Federation than they are in Kazakhstan or Belarus 

TASS now also reports that,

"The outcome of the latest meeting between Russian president’s aide Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker is not hopeless, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) said in an interview ...  on Sunday." 
...
"Not long ago, they had another meeting. I would say that the outcome is not hopeless," the Russian top diplomat noted. "They agreed to continue such talks." (TASS : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, is the fact that Lavrov also recently stated that,

" .....Russia would "draw conclusions" in connection with the U.S. weapons supplies to Ukraine.

“It is also an objective fact that representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk are looking closely at this, being able to stand up for themselves. I believe this must also be kept in mind," Lavrov said. (UNIAN : 11 February,2018) (my emphasis)

Lavrov continued,

"I believe that the one who will take the first step toward scrapping the Minsk agreements will make a colossal mistake. 
...
In fact, the Kyiv authorities are only one step away from this mistake, that’s if they finally pass the law on reintegration, which they now passed in the second reading. We'll see," said Lavrov." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Responding to these 'veiled threats' of Lavrov, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine, Mariana Betsa (left), wrote on Twitter.

"Scrapping the Minsk agreements is non-fulfillment by Russia, by their side, of their obligations, and the ongoing aggression," (UNIAN : 11 February, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
The 'Law on Reintegration' being referred to by Lavrov basically states that,

[Russia shall be held liable for moral, financial or physical damage inflicted on the State of Ukraine, government authorities and local self-government agencies, individuals and legal entities. 

According to the draft law, the launch and completion of measures to ensure national security and defense, repel and deter Russia's armed aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions shall be enacted by separate decisions by the President of Ukraine. (ibid UNIAN)]

And underlining Mariana Betsa's statement, Stephen Blank (right) argues that,

"Russia refuses to accept a negotiated outcome that entails its retreat from the Donbas or Crimea. Moscow now insists that Ukraine accede to the suicidal Minsk II agreement that would effectively convert Ukraine into a confederation whose sovereignty could be punctured at any point by the Donbas" (The Atlantic Council: January 24, 2018) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian economy is going South, and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is trying to put a positive gloss on the Volker-Surkov meetings about Ukraine, whilst also issuing 'veiled threats' about sending more sophisticated arms to Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Ukrainian Donbas, TASS also reports that,

"Russia’s National Guard [created by Putin in 2016], also known as Rosgvardiya, said it would crack down on unauthorized rallies during the [2018] Russian presidential election, Head of the National Guard’s Main Directorate for Public Order Protection Alexey Zinin told reporters on Thursday." (TASS : January 18,2018)

As also recently reported by the BBC, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for elite soldiers in a new force - the National Guard - to protect the country's regional governors."
 ....
"The National Guard, launched last year [2016], is headed by Mr Putin's ex-bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a longstanding ally. (left: Zolotov and Putin)
...
"Mr Putin has previously warned that Russia must protect itself from "colour revolutions" like those that toppled presidents in neighbouring Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan." (BBC : November 2017) (my emphasis) 

Joe Ankier 6 April, 2016

Which rather raises the question,

"Why is Putin suddenly 'beefing up' his 'National Guard' with a force of elite soldiers, whilst at the same time threatening to counter the Javelin anti-tank missiles sent to Ukraine by the US by sending more sophisticated arms to his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas?"

"Is Putin now beginning to run scared?"

(to be continued)