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Thursday 16 August 2018

Is Merkel now Putin's best hope of rescuing him from the impeding disaster facing the Russian economy?

The summer holidays are coming to and end, and the Trump-Putin Siamese twins find themselves nursing political headaches.

The noose of impeachment is tightening around the neck of Trump, and Putin is sinking even deeper into the morass that he created with his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, and by his illegal occupation and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

 Trump's latest attack on one of his critics, former CIA head John Brennan, amplifies the degree to which Trump is now going to salvage his presidency.

As reported by the BBC,

"Donald Trump has revoked the security clearance of ex-CIA chief John Brennan (right), denying the US president's critic any access to sensitive information.
...
In response, Mr Brennan tweeted that the move was part of President Trump's broader effort to "suppress freedom of speech and punish critics".(BBC News : 16 August, 2018) (my emphasis)





Notwithstanding Trump trying to 'muzzle' his critics, we also learn that,

"Spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State Heather Nauert (left) has said Russia is orchestrating the conflict in Donbas and must pull its forces out of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 16 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, we also learn that,

"U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton will visit Ukraine next week.
.....
"As part of the visit, John Bolton (right) will meet with the leaders of Ukraine and high-ranking Ukrainian representatives," the embassy added." UNIAN : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

What Bolton is going to discuss with Ukrainian leaders remains somewhat of a mystery since, shortly thereafter, he will be jetting off to Geneva to meet with Russians. As reported by Steve Holland,

" ....White House national security adviser John Bolton will meet Russian officials in Geneva next week as a follow-up to the summit meeting that President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had in Helsinki last month, the White House said." (Reuters : 14 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

The question that needs to be asked of John Bolton is,

"Since the Helsinki meeting no-one, except Trump and Putin, know what was discussed during their 'private' meeting in Helsinki. So what, exactly, is this 'follow-up summit' in Geneva all about?"

Could it be that, as reported by Jim Sciutto and Jenna McLaughlin (left),

"The [western intelligence] assessments, based on a broad range of intelligence, indicate that the Kremlin believes the July 16 summit delivered a better outcome than it had expected, but that Moscow is perplexed that Trump is not delivering more Russia-friendly policies in its aftermath" (CNN : 13 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

and that Bolton's follow-up summit is to assure Putin that Trump will deliver on his demands that were discussed 'privately' between them at the Helsinki meeting?

This 'follow-up summit' should also be seen in the light of,

"Russia's hybrid military forces mounted 43 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas in the past 24 hours, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA).
....
Since Thursday midnight, Russian-led forces have mounted three attacks on the Ukrainian positions near Svitlodarsk, Pavlopil, and Vodiane. "It should be noted the enemy used Grad multiple rocket launchers last night for the first time in a few months." (UNIAN : 16 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

Coming close on the heels of Bolton attending a so-called 'follow-up' summit in Geneva with his Russian counterparts, especially in light of Heather Nauert stating that, "Russia is orchestrating the conflict in Donbas and must pull its forces out of Ukraine.", we now learn that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Berlin on August 18 for the second time in just over three months, her government says.
...
The agenda of the talks are set to include the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, as well as energy issues, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on August 13." (RFERL : 13 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

That 'energy issues' are also on their agenda seems to indicate that the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Germany and Putin's Russia has become a critical economic issue for Putin.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell on Wednesday, pulled down by a report of increased U.S. crude inventories and as a darkening economic outlook stoked by expectations of lower fuel demand." (UNIAN : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

It is therefore an economic 'imperative' for Putin that Nord Stream 2 is completed, and starts earning hard cash for the strapped Russian economy

Paul Goble  has also reported that,

"Most Russians today are focusing on possible increases in pension ages, but they should be more worried about a larger and more immediate threat: an increase in inflation possibly to “explosive” levels as a result of international sanctions and government efforts to raise money, according to a group of Moscow financial analysts and financial experts.

            According to the group, which was assembled by the Rosbalt news agency, inflation will soon be accelerating because of increases in VAT and housing costs, higher prices for fuel, a decline in the price of oil, and a new wave of sanctions by the US, all of which will send prices up and the standard of living down (rosbalt.ru/russia/2018/08/08/1723017.html)." (Window on Eurasia : 8 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

Is Merkel now Putin's best hope of rescuing him from the impending disaster facing the Russian economy?


(to be continued)

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