Swedish Defense Agency announces that Russia is preparing for a full-scale war

When the Swedish Defense Agency announces that Russia is preparing for a full-scale war, one should sit up and take notice.

As reported by the FOI (Swedish Defense Agency),

"Russian military exercises have become increasingly extensive during the last ten years, according to a report from FOI. Although Russia previously focused on managing small-scale conflicts, it now practices how to start and conduct large-scale war.
...
During the last ten years, the country has used military force in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria.
“Russia is obviously prepared to use military means. It is thus important to understand how, and in the worst case, for what, they might be used. Military exercises provide a hint of this,” says Johan Norberg." (FOI : 4 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

That Putin is now faced with the the only option of escalating his war with Ukraine is significantly due to the fact that, as reported by Keith Johnson,

"This Friday in Brussels, the Council of the European Union will vote on a seemingly arcane directive meant to apply European Union market rules to energy projects that start in a third country—like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia.


... France has now decided to back the directive. That risks angering Germany—which really wanted to build the pipeline with Russia—and potentially dooming the $11 billion energy project, a priority for Russian President Vladimir Putin." (Foreign Policy : 8 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

As also reported by John Irish and Sudip Kar-Gupta (left),

"France expects to support a revised directive on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, said the country’s foreign ministry on Thursday, adding it was working with partners including Germany on possible changes to a text on the matter. (Right: French President Macron)

Germany has been pressuring other European capitals to block [this] EU proposal to regulate Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline ahead of a key meeting on Friday, diplomatic sources have said." (Reuters : 7 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

“Poland views the Nord Stream 2 as a significant threat to the peace and security on the European continent from the point of view of deepening European countries’ dependence on Russian energy and the prospects for an escalation of Russian aggression against Ukraine,” Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz (left) said late last month." (Keith Johnson : Foreign Policy : 7 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

And compounding Putin's current woes,

"Eighteen European Union member states have called on the bloc to be "ready to act" in support of Ukraine in case Russian tries to undermine the country's presidential and parliamentary elections later this year, according to a document seen by Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)." (UNIAN : 7 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

As I stated in a recent blog entry (30 Jan., 2019),

"Since his methods of election-interference during the 2016 US presidential elections have being publicly exposed, Putin is well aware that the international public will be on the look-out for his interference in the upcoming elections in Ukraine.

This weapon, which he so successfully wielded in the 2016 US presidential elections, has [now] been blunted." (Blog : 30 January, 2019)

On the other side of the Atlantic pond, as Putin and Merkel loose sleep over the possible collapse of the Putin-German Nord Stream 2 pipeline completion, the inextricable links of collusion between Putin, his 'siloviki', and Donald Trump, during the 2016 US presidential elections, continues to emerge.

MSNBC (8 February, 2019)

Putin's 'payback' expectations from Trump for helping him gain the keys to the White House has simply not materialized.

On the contrary, the public exposure by the Mueller investigation of the Putin-Trump 'love-fest' is now gaining momentum in propelling Trump towards the gallows of impeachment.

Putin's 'Manchurian Candidate', Donald Trump, is now reaching the stage of near total meltdown, as so many working in the West Wing of the White House, are now experiencing.

MSNBC (6 February, 2019)

No longer can Putin now rely on Trump to simply dutifully obey his orders.

The Democratic Party now controls the US House of Congress and, unlike the previous Republicans who, during their control of the US Congress, simply rubber-stamped Trump's 'love-fest' with Putin, are now exercising their duty of 'oversight' over the White House.

  

And the European Council is now exercising its duty of 'oversight' over, "... arcane directive meant to apply European Union market rules to energy projects that start in a third country—like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia.". 

And under these circumstances, "When the Swedish Defense Agency announces that Russia is preparing for a full-scale war, one should sit up and take notice."

(to be continued)

Has Putin been inadvertently given the "nuclear go-ahead" against Ukraine by Trump?

In my blog entry of (19 Jan., 2019), I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back to July of 2014, when Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, stated that,

"If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Sevastopol and Crimea are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this".

He then added, "We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case".

This is a not-so-subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to retain Crimea" (Zachary Keck : The Diplomat : 11 July, 2014) (my emphasis)

In March of 2015 it was also reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea." (BBC News : 15 March, 2015) (my emphasis) (blog entry : 19 Jan., 2019)

Fast forward to yesterday (2 Feb., 2019), and UNIAN reports that,

"Speaker for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Chernobay (left) has said the Russian Federation deployed 12 Iskander nuclear-capable ballistic missile launchers at a distance of 250 km from the border of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 2 Feb., 2019) (my emphasis)

This deployment of nuclear-capable ballistic missile launchers so close to Ukraine's border comes against the backdrop that,

"... Russia [has] deployed at least 28 battalion tactical groups near the Ukrainian border.

At least 28 battalion tactical groups are in readiness for immediate use on the border with our state. They are 100% staffed by contract servicemen and equipped with modern (modernized) weapons and military hardware," [Oleksiy Chernobay] told UNIAN about Russia's military presence along the border with Ukraine" (UNIAN : 2 Feb., 2019) (my emphasis)

More significantly, as outlined by Andreas Umlan (right),

1. [T]he West’s lack of reaction to the November 2018 naval confrontation. The West has done little beyond condemning the aggression ..
2. The EU has not reacted and probably will not react materially, as it did after the shoot down of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in July 2014 to the confrontation and capture of Ukrainian sailors either.
3. The absence of any relevant international organizations on the Azov Sea or on Crimea makes Russian actions against Ukraine there less risky
4.  Since its opening in May 2018, there have been repeated reports in the Ukrainian media about the [Kerch] bridge’s engineering issues and geological challenges
5. In 2014, Kyiv stopped the delivery of water to the peninsula via the North Crimean Canal. Constantly declining aquatic reserves, in combination with a continuing dearth of energy supply, are a virtual time bomb with potentially far-reaching economic and social consequences for Crimea’s residents. (The Atlantic : 1st February, 2019) (my emphasis)

And then we have NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) stating that,

“NATO does not have any intention to deploy new land-based nuclear weapons to Europe,” Stoltenberg said in an interview in the Norwegian capital.

“We don’t have to mirror what Russia does. But at the same time we have to make sure that we maintain credible and effective deterrence,” he said, without giving specifics on what the different military options NATO is looking at could entail." (Reuters : 1st February, 2019) (my emphasis)

This statement of Stoltenberg comes hot on the heels of Trump suddenly announcing, on the SAME day (1st February, 2019), that the US is pulling out of the INF Treaty,

"We can't be put at the disadvantage of going by a treaty, limiting what we do, when somebody else does not go by that treaty ..." (Eliot Engel and Adam Smith : CNN : 2nd February, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Engel and Smith point out,

"Russia is now violating the INF treaty by developing and deploying new missiles that could deliver nuclear warheads to European targets, including US military bases. This dangerous situation demands a robust and effective response. Instead, the Trump administration has played right into Vladimir Putin's hands." (ibid Engel and Smith) (my emphasis)

Putin now has carte blanche to deploy as many Iskander nuclear-capable ballistic missile launchers along Russia's border with Ukraine, as well as in Ukraine's annexed Crimea.

(to be continued)