Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.

The "Mueller Report", that investigated possible collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US Presidential elections has, according to Trump appointee, William Barr, exonerated Trump and, by implication, Putin.

The victory dance of Trump and Putin may, however, be rather short lived.

As the old saying goes, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings". In other words, " ... one should not presume to know the outcome of an investigation which is still in progress."

It now transpires that, as reported by Rachel Maddow (link: 1 and 2), Mueller's Special Council still has ongoing investigations that may yet prove rather problematic for Trump. (MSNBC : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb.

MSNBC: 27 March, 2019 (position 15:28)

And whilst Putin may still be rubbing his hands together in glee at Barr's exoneration of himself and Trump, Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State, has recently stated that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday (27 March, 2019 position: 4:20:15) he hoped to announce with NATO allies visiting Washington next week additional steps to push back on Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.

 “Next week I am hopeful ... I will be able to announce another series of actions that we will jointly take together,” Pompeo told a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the State Department's budget request for 2020, according to Reuters. He also acknowledged that Washington could have done more to address Moscow’s activity in Ukraine." (UNIAN : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

  Pompeo address to Congress (27 March, 2019)

Pompeo's statements are not all that should concern Putin.

As reported by Shadia Nasralla (left),

"Oil prices were down on Thursday, extending losses into a second consecutive session following a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.
...
U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have also capped prices. " (Reuters : 28 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Adding to which,

"Denmark has decided not to authorize the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in its exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. "Gazprom saw another refusal from Denmark on the Nord Stream 2 route," Naftogaz press service reported via Twitter." (Unian : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

That the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been spiked by Denmark simply adds to Russia's continual descend into a critical economic position, a situation against which Putin is defenseless.

As Paul Goble (left) reports,

"Preparing for even greater isolation, Russian powers that be are “now economizing on almost everything and particularly on programs” that are for ordinary Russians, Sergey Shelin (right) says. But they are not reducing spending on security because that is about self-defense or on giant projects, the easiest way to give money to their rich allies." (Window on Eurasia : 26 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

This call by Putin for yet more belt-tightening by the Russian people comes against the backdrop, as Roman Goncharenko (right) writes, that,

"Today, a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings.
...
There is no more public debate over whether Crimea truly belongs to Ukraine or Russia. Even though back in 2014 most Russians did not really question the annexation of the peninsula, either. Konstantin Gaase says that now, "even the Russian opposition has stopped talking about Crimea." (DW : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is therefor no wonder that, as Marc Bennetts reports,

" Putin, rap and Night Wolves: Russia marks 5 years in Crimea. No shortage of flag-waving as Russian president pays a visit, but no celebrations in Moscow this year.
...
[A]nalysts suggest that a rising resentment of the economic costs of the annexation of [Ukraine's] Crimea, as well as of Russia’s military campaign in Syria, is more likely to be behind the Kremlin’s reluctance to hold a triumphant rally near Red Square this year.
......
“During the last year, sociologists began to hear in focus groups that Crimea has cost us too much, and that we generally spend too much on foreign military adventures,” said Yekaterina Schulmann" (Politico : 20 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.
  

(to be continued)

Putin, Trump, and Deutsche Bank.

On 9 January, 2019, I wrote that,

"One can now safely say that Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!

The completion of the Nord Stream2 project is now more critical for Putin as the US House of Congress begins to block Trump's attempt to remove US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique." (cf. also Alan Rappeport above)

How long, now, will Merkel be able to continue with her pretense that Nord Stream2 is a purely economic relationship between herself and Putin? (Blog Entry 9 January, 2019)

Recent events in the banking world of Germany further underscores the degree and extent to which Putinversteher Angela Merkel will go to cover Putin's, and his Kremlin 'siloviki's', economic back.

I refer, of course, to the current scrabble by Merkel to save Deutsche Bank, the favoured German bank of Trump, Putin, and the Kremlin 'siloviki'

As reported by Matthew Lynn (left),

"Over the last few years, the Germans, the European Central Bank, and the EU itself, have been adamant that banks shouldn’t be bailed out inside the eurozone. Along the way, Greek, Cypriot, Italian and Irish banks have all been allowed to go to the wall or squeezed to extinction.
...
But hold on. There seems to be an exception to that austere financial regime. Big German banks. With the once mighty Deutsche Bank in serious trouble, it turns out there is nothing wrong with the [German] government orchestrating what amounts to a rescue after all." (The Spectator : 19 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Matthew Lynn goes on to state that,

" ... That lays bare a stark truth about the eurozone, and indeed the EU. There is one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else." (ibid Matthew Lynn)

Arthur Sullivan perhaps best sums up WHY Merkel believes there is one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else. He reports that,

"Deutsche Bank's problems have been even more pronounced. On top of its dire financial performance — it made a net loss of €6 billion between 2011 and 2018 — it has been bogged down with several major scandals, including the Libor scandal, where fraudulent manipulation of interest rates took place for years, and the ongoing money laundering probe into Danske Bank." (DW : 10 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

This  "one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else", is also true in the case of Nord Stream 2, Putin's desperate attempt to ensure its completion so that he will not have to pay into Ukraine's coffers for sending gas to the EU through Ukraine's gas pipelines.

Recall that in February of this year,

"Under a deal agreed earlier in February, the [Nord Stream 2] pipeline must meet four EU rules, including a telecoms-style unbundling requirement whereby other suppliers be allowed access to the pipeline.

However, Germany will be the ultimate arbiter of how the regulations are applied. " (Adam Vaughan:The Guardian : 25 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Recent revelations in the US have, however, opened up a can of worms for Germany's Deutsche Bank.

The intimate links between Deutsche Bank and Putin and Trump is now revealing just how Trump was (and still is) possibly on Putin's payroll.

As reported by Chris Matthews (right),

"The House Intelligence Committee is now seeking to determine whether President Trump is currently under the influence of the Kremlin. .... the president may be compromised by his possible financial entanglements with Russia ..." (MSNBC : 19 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

David Enrich further reveals just how Deutsche Bank poured money into the Trump coffers whilst knowing that NO US bank would loan Trump any money.

Is this how Putin siphoned money into the Trump coffers and ensnared him?

More importantly, we have to ask the question,

"In having to now bail out Deutsche Bank, contrary to EU banking regulations, just how far will Merkel go to cover Putin's economic back, and at the expense of Ukraine?"

Without Deutsche Bank, what would happen to the already parlous state of the Russian economy?

Would Putin be able to continue pouring money into Ukraine's Crimea whilst the Russian people have to endure rising economic hardships?

As Paul Goble (left) writes,

"The USSR fell apart as a result of a whole list of problems. Crimea too can become precisely that point of no return” about which future historians will speak.  And they will view the annexation of Crimea not as a victory to be celebrated but as a curse that should have been avoided." (Window on Eurasia : 18 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Like Trump, Putin is now trapped in a dangerous situation of his own making.

As the Ukrainian presidential elections loom ever closer, Mykola Vorobiov (left) reports that,

"Expectations are high that Russia will attempt to interfere in the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections, scheduled for March 31.
...
Having failed, since 2014, to force Kyiv back into its orbit using purely military means, the Kremlin has been gearing up a broad spectrum of instruments—including cyberattacks, disinformation, courting of pro-Russian politicians and their supporters, inflaming of religious tensions, as well as threats of further military escalation—in order to put pressure on Ukraine via its democratic process. (Jamestown : 11 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

And as Putin ramps up his attack on Ukraine's democratic process, Rikard Jozwiak reports that,

"The United States, together with the European Union and Canada, imposed new sanctions on March 15 on more than a dozen Russian officials and businesses in response to the country's "continued aggression in Ukraine." (RFERL : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"NATO has again confirmed future membership for Ukraine in the Alliance, noting strengthened political and practical support for Kyiv since illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia and events in Donbas.

This message was delivered in the annual report by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (left), which was released on Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels." (KyivPost : 14 March,2019) (my emphasis)

Perhaps of even more significance,

"Denmark’s foreign minister [Anders Samuelsen (right)] said Wednesday his country hasn’t yet decided whether to allow a joint German-Russian gas pipeline [Nord Stream 2] to pass through its territorial waters, but suggested Moscow’s continued aggression in Ukraine was making it less likely to be approved." (Associated Press : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)


So whilst Putinversteher Merkel is trying to strong-arm the EU into accepting Nord Stream 2, little Denmark is not willing to succumb to her strong-arm tactics.

Adding to Putin's woes, Roman Goncharenko writes that,

"Today, a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings.
...
There is no more public debate over whether Crimea truly belongs to Ukraine or Russia. Even though back in 2014 most Russians did not really question the annexation of the peninsula, either. Konstantin Gaase says that now, "even the Russian opposition has stopped talking about Crimea." (DW : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

As more and more frustrations are piled up on Putin, the real danger that this poses is that he will lash out against Ukraine.

Recall that in 2014, Angela Merkel herself stated that she was,

" .... bewildered by the man in charge of one of the world’s largest countries. After speaking with Mr Putin, she said she was not sure he was in touch with reality." (Daniel Piotrwoski (right): News AU: 5 March, 2014)

Merkel's tune about Putin's state-of-mind has somewhat changed since then, now that the German-Russian Nord stream 2 pipeline promises to make Germany the gas-hub of Europe.

                                                            Merkel and Putin                       Putin and Schröder

(Former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, currently serves as a board member of several consortia, including the Nord Stream 2 consortium, in which Russian-government-controlled energy company Gazprom is either the majority or sole shareholder.)

As the thorn of Ukraine digs deeper into the wilting Russian economy of Putin, will Putin's 'itchy' finger press the button that will unleash his armed forces bordering Ukraine's border, and those now in Ukraine's Crimea, against Ukraine?

Recall that in 2014, "While lounging in a chair like a world-weary aristrocrat, [Putin] insisted Russia was seeking to de-escalate tensions [with Ukraine]. But his speech came as Russian troops fired warning shots at Ukrainian soldiers and Russia fired a nuclear capable missile." (ibid Daniel Piotrwoski)

As Roman Goncharenko writes,

"Today (2019), a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings."

Like Trump, Putin is now trapped in a dangerous situation of his own making.

(to be continued)

Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

In my blog entry of (19 Jan., 2019), I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back to July of 2014, when Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, stated that,

"If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Sevastopol and Crimea are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this".

He then added, "We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case".

This is a not-so-subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to retain Crimea" (Zachary Keck : The Diplomat : 11 July, 2014) (my emphasis)

In March of 2015 it was also reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea." (BBC News : 15 March, 2015) (my emphasis) (blog entry : 19 Jan., 2019)

 And in January of this year (2019), Joe Gamp reported that,

"RUSSIA has deployed an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles close to the border of Ukraine - stoking further tensions between the two Crimean adversaries following an incident on the Sea of Azov in November." (Express : 20 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Those missiles are NOW on standby since, as reported by UNIAN,

"Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces Gen. Viktor Muzhenko (right) has announced that Russia is completing the formation of its strike force on the border with Ukraine, which together with special-operations units will form the base for the Kremlin's invasion fist." (UNIAN : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is not only Gen. Muzhenko that is raising the red flag of Putin's imminent attempt to invade Ukraine.

As reported by Will Stewart,

"A famed woman tank commander fighting for pro-Vladimir Putin rebels has revealed Russia’s secret plan to place 100,000 ground troops inside Ukraine in just four hours after she defected to the country.
...
Svetlana Dryuk , 40, says she has handed Kiev details of Russian battle plans for a “full-scale invasion” of  Ukraine." (Express : 4 March, 2019) (my emphasis)  

Putin has, however, to weigh the cost to Russia of any invasion of Ukraine against the stand of the UK, NATO, and the US, to assist Ukraine in such an eventuality.

Recall that in November of 2018, Luke Hawker reported that,

"THE UK will expand its military presence in the Ukraine as tensions increase with Russia, the Defence Secretary will announce today. Britain will be sending additional troops and a Royal Navy ship into eastern Europe “as long as Ukraine faces Russian hostilities”." (Express : 21 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Recall also that in 2015, a year after the Maidan revolution that overthrew Yanukovich, the BBC reported that,

"Nato warships have begun military training exercises in the Black Sea, in international waters off the coast of Bulgaria.

The mission is aimed at reassuring its members in Eastern Europe in the face of Russia's increasingly unpredictable behaviour. " (BBC : 11 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

And today, as reported by UKRINFORM,

"A group of NATO ships will enter the Black Sea in a few days to conduct exercises as part of the build-up of the presence of the Alliance forces in the region.
...
"The Allies clearly stated that Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine are unacceptable, as well as the annexation of Crimea, the continuation of attempts to destabilize Ukraine by the presence in Donbas, and the illegal capture of Ukrainian ships and sailors," [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg (right) said. (UKRINFORM : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

In light of these NATO exercises, Ciaran McGrath reports that,

"RUSSIA has issued an ominous threat after NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg revealed plans to beef up its military presence in the Black Sea - warning such a move had the potential to aggravate still further simmering tensions in the region." (Express : 15 February, 2019) (my emphasis),

 whilst at the same time, [Russia's] Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko is being somewhat more conciliatory, stating that,

"The Black Sea has always been the sea of cooperation, even taking into account certain conflicts." (ibid Ciaran McGrath)

This 'conciliatory stance of Alexander Grushko could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Cristina Maza (right), Mark Simakovsky argues that,

“I think the Kerch Strait incident showcased not only the continued threat to Ukraine but also the deficiencies of the Ukrainian coast guard and Navy in terms of their capabilities,” Mark Simakovsky, an expert on Russia and NATO at the D.C.-based Atlantic Council, told Newsweek.
...
“So this is an ongoing issue...The U.S. can and should continue to provide defense assistance, and actually accelerate defense assistance, to Ukraine and broaden it beyond the focus on anti-armor and anti-air capabilities and counter battery radar." (Newsweek : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Bill McLoughlin,


"US Army General Curtis Saparrotti (left) revealed to Congress that there had been “numerous ceasefire violations” [in Ukraine] by Russia. In light of that, General Scaparrotti revealed that he had requested two addition naval destroyers in order to “remain dominant in the maritime domain” ahead of Russia." (Express : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

We should, however, be mindful of Putin's constant 'nuclear' sabre rattling.

As recently reported by Hollie McKay,

"Putin’s speech [last month (Feb. 2019)] to the Federal Assembly indeed “included some serious saber-rattling about Russia’s intentions to field new weaponry –  including nuclear-powered cruise missiles, nuclear-powered unmanned submarines and hypersonic ballistic missiles to name a few.” (Fox News : 21 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

(to be continued)

Can Putin survive the continual decline of the Russian economy?

Tatiana Jancarikova (left) reported (7 February, 2019) that Angela Merkel stated that,

“Do we become dependent on Russia due to this second gas pipeline? I say ‘no’, if we diversify at the same time,” Merkel told a news conference in Bratislava, where she met the leaders of the Visegrad group - Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

Diplomatic sources have said Germany is pressuring other European capitals to block an EU proposal to regulate Nord Stream 2 ahead of a key meeting on Friday but may fail to convince France, threatening the project’s construction." (Reuters : 7 Feb., 2019) (my emphasis)

Since that statement of Putinversteher Merkel, she has finally managed to convince Macron to agree to the Nord Steam 2 project.

But here comes the rub! 

As reported by Adam Vaughan,

"... this month a compromise deal on pipeline rules was forged by Germany and France, which should allow the scheme to proceed.

Under a deal agreed earlier in February, the pipeline must meet four EU rules, including a telecoms-style unbundling requirement whereby other suppliers be allowed access to the pipeline.

However, Germany will be the ultimate arbiter of how the regulations are applied. " (The Guardian : 25 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

It would seem that BOTH Merkel and Macron must be woefully ignorant of just how Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea was also, in effect, a resource grab.

As reported by Ariel Cohen (left),

"There are nine so-called “blocks” of natural gas available for licensing in Ukraine’s Black Sea, the potential of which ranges from 92 billion cubic meters (bcm) to over 500 bcm, according to an April 2018 survey conducted by Deloitte.
...
Moscow’s intent to exploit Ukraine’s natural gas deposits is not just idle speculation; it is currently underway. When Russian forces annexed Crimea in 2014, they seized subsidiaries of Ukraine’s state energy conglomerate Naftogaz operating in the Black Sea. The Kremlin appropriated these companies — and billions of dollars of equipment — and delivered them to Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant. In one fell swoop, Russia ended Ukraine’s offshore oil and gas operations and bolstered its own." (Forbes : 28 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

The compromised Nord Stream 2 deal forged between Merkel and Macron, with Merkel being the  ultimate arbiter of how the regulations are applied, once again emphasizes just how Merkel is indirectly bankrolling Putin at the expense of Ukraine.

Once Nord Stream 2 becomes operational at the end of this year Putin, with the help of Merkel, and now also Macron, will effectively be in near total control of Ukraine's energy needs.

All of this puts into stark perspective just why Putin is now flooding the Black Sea with his warships and submarines. 

It also puts into sharp perspective the critical importance of Ukraine's upcoming presidential elections.

We should also bear in mind Putin's nuclear missiles that now face Ukraine from Putin's annexed Ukraine's Crimea, not to mention the veritable Russian army on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

The 'fly in Putin's ointment' is still, however, those pesky EU and US sanctions that is causing Russia's economy to stutter and decline.  

Putin's 'Manchurian Candidate', Donald Trump, is now clinging by his fingertips onto his presidency as more is revealed not only about the collusion between himself and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections, but also about Trump's criminal mind-set.

So, whilst Putin may be gleeful about Merkel and Macron giving Nord Stream 2 the 'green light', as reported by Marek Dabrowski and Antoine Mathieu Collin (right)

"The weak growth prospects [of the Russian economy] are caused by several factors including:

(i) adverse demographic trends – a declining working-age population and ageing of the population; (ii) a poor business and investment climate;
(iii) difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector;
(iv) Western sanctions on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and Russian support for separatists in the eastern Ukraine Donbas region, and Russian counter-sanctions." (Bruegel : 7 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Can Putin survive the continual decline of the Russian economy?

(to be continued)