Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

In my blog entry of (19 Jan., 2019), I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back to July of 2014, when Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, stated that,

"If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Sevastopol and Crimea are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this".

He then added, "We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case".

This is a not-so-subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to retain Crimea" (Zachary Keck : The Diplomat : 11 July, 2014) (my emphasis)

In March of 2015 it was also reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea." (BBC News : 15 March, 2015) (my emphasis) (blog entry : 19 Jan., 2019)

 And in January of this year (2019), Joe Gamp reported that,

"RUSSIA has deployed an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles close to the border of Ukraine - stoking further tensions between the two Crimean adversaries following an incident on the Sea of Azov in November." (Express : 20 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Those missiles are NOW on standby since, as reported by UNIAN,

"Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces Gen. Viktor Muzhenko (right) has announced that Russia is completing the formation of its strike force on the border with Ukraine, which together with special-operations units will form the base for the Kremlin's invasion fist." (UNIAN : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is not only Gen. Muzhenko that is raising the red flag of Putin's imminent attempt to invade Ukraine.

As reported by Will Stewart,

"A famed woman tank commander fighting for pro-Vladimir Putin rebels has revealed Russia’s secret plan to place 100,000 ground troops inside Ukraine in just four hours after she defected to the country.
...
Svetlana Dryuk , 40, says she has handed Kiev details of Russian battle plans for a “full-scale invasion” of  Ukraine." (Express : 4 March, 2019) (my emphasis)  

Putin has, however, to weigh the cost to Russia of any invasion of Ukraine against the stand of the UK, NATO, and the US, to assist Ukraine in such an eventuality.

Recall that in November of 2018, Luke Hawker reported that,

"THE UK will expand its military presence in the Ukraine as tensions increase with Russia, the Defence Secretary will announce today. Britain will be sending additional troops and a Royal Navy ship into eastern Europe “as long as Ukraine faces Russian hostilities”." (Express : 21 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Recall also that in 2015, a year after the Maidan revolution that overthrew Yanukovich, the BBC reported that,

"Nato warships have begun military training exercises in the Black Sea, in international waters off the coast of Bulgaria.

The mission is aimed at reassuring its members in Eastern Europe in the face of Russia's increasingly unpredictable behaviour. " (BBC : 11 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

And today, as reported by UKRINFORM,

"A group of NATO ships will enter the Black Sea in a few days to conduct exercises as part of the build-up of the presence of the Alliance forces in the region.
...
"The Allies clearly stated that Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine are unacceptable, as well as the annexation of Crimea, the continuation of attempts to destabilize Ukraine by the presence in Donbas, and the illegal capture of Ukrainian ships and sailors," [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg (right) said. (UKRINFORM : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

In light of these NATO exercises, Ciaran McGrath reports that,

"RUSSIA has issued an ominous threat after NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg revealed plans to beef up its military presence in the Black Sea - warning such a move had the potential to aggravate still further simmering tensions in the region." (Express : 15 February, 2019) (my emphasis),

 whilst at the same time, [Russia's] Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko is being somewhat more conciliatory, stating that,

"The Black Sea has always been the sea of cooperation, even taking into account certain conflicts." (ibid Ciaran McGrath)

This 'conciliatory stance of Alexander Grushko could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Cristina Maza (right), Mark Simakovsky argues that,

“I think the Kerch Strait incident showcased not only the continued threat to Ukraine but also the deficiencies of the Ukrainian coast guard and Navy in terms of their capabilities,” Mark Simakovsky, an expert on Russia and NATO at the D.C.-based Atlantic Council, told Newsweek.
...
“So this is an ongoing issue...The U.S. can and should continue to provide defense assistance, and actually accelerate defense assistance, to Ukraine and broaden it beyond the focus on anti-armor and anti-air capabilities and counter battery radar." (Newsweek : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Bill McLoughlin,


"US Army General Curtis Saparrotti (left) revealed to Congress that there had been “numerous ceasefire violations” [in Ukraine] by Russia. In light of that, General Scaparrotti revealed that he had requested two addition naval destroyers in order to “remain dominant in the maritime domain” ahead of Russia." (Express : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

We should, however, be mindful of Putin's constant 'nuclear' sabre rattling.

As recently reported by Hollie McKay,

"Putin’s speech [last month (Feb. 2019)] to the Federal Assembly indeed “included some serious saber-rattling about Russia’s intentions to field new weaponry –  including nuclear-powered cruise missiles, nuclear-powered unmanned submarines and hypersonic ballistic missiles to name a few.” (Fox News : 21 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

(to be continued)