Zelensky is now walking along a taut political tightrope

On April 26, 2019, Vladimir Socor (left) reported that,

"With challenger Volodymyr Zelensky far ahead in the opinion polls, both Berlin and Paris are already planning for a post-Poroshenko Ukraine. Moreover, President Macron received Mr. Zelensky in Paris, also on April 12, separately from President Poroshenko." (The Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Vladimir Socor goes on to further report that,

• "In his readout for Ukrainian media, in Paris and back in Kyiv, Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented [by French President Macron] with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020). 
• Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that the withdrawal of Russian forces, disarmament of local proxy forces and restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Ukrinform, April 12, 13).
• the French president regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines. (ibid Socor)

Meanwhile, as Socor further reports,

"In Mr. Lévy’s telling, he first met Mr. Zelensky on March 30, the eve of the first round of this presidential election .... Mr. Lévy recognized the difference between the future and the past. According to his account, when asked how he would deal with Mr. Putin in a face-to-face meeting, Mr. Zelensky’s answer is that he would make Mr. Putin laugh (Novoye Vremya, April 5). (ibid Socor)

Fast forward to May 24 and RFERL reports that,

"Ukraine's new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone on May 24, discussing efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine, both offices said.
...
In Berlin, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on May 24 that Merkel and Zelenskiy agreed on a need for a "full implementation" of the current peace agreements." (RFERL : 24 May 2019) (my emphasis)

The critical question that needs to be answered is,

"Do Zelensky and Merkel now agree that "the withdrawal of Russian forces, disarmament of local proxy forces and restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk"?

Let us remind ourselves about the relevant articles of the Minsk2 agreements NOW being defined as "aspirations" rather than as "indispensable pre-conditions to any 'elections' in Donetsk-Luhansk:

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
          for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
          for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014. The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days. This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group. 
• Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. 
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

Perhaps a direct confirmation that the Minsk2 "indispensable pre-conditions" have now morphed into "aspirations" in the eyes of Zelensky and Merkel derives from the fact that,

"The newly-appointed chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Ruslan Khomchak, appointed (left) by President Vladimir Zelensky two days ago, believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014.
...
[He reminisced that] "I bought a voucher to a health resort in Alupka," Khomchak said. "When the holiday was over, I told myself I would never go there again, because what I’d seen was really shocking. It was a sad ruin of what was left of the Soviet Union… I kept asking myself: ‘Is this Ukraine?’" (Tass : 24 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Khomchak believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014, at least according to Tass, whilst "team Zelensky have stated that, "Crimea, Ukraine's peninsula occupied by Russia in 2014 must return to Ukraine"(UNIAN : 16 April 2019), nonetheless Khomchack,

"... says he is against holding talks with self-proclaimed republics in Russia-occupied Donbas. Answering a question of how he views the possibility of talks with fighters of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR"), Khomchak said: "I am against any talks, I am a military man." (UNIAN: 24 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelensky will also be having a telephone 'meeting' in the near future with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, to discuss the implementation of the Minsk2 Agreements, as recently discussed between Macron, Merkel, and Putin.

As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov and Efrem Lukatsky,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about Ukraine among other issues in a conference call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Putin emphasized the need for the Ukrainian government to enact legislation granting special status to the rebel regions in line with a 2015 Minsk agreement sponsored by France and Germany, according to the Kremlin. Putin also noted that the Ukrainian government must establish direct dialogue with the rebels." (Washington Post : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

So, if Komchack is :-

• against holding talks with the self-proclaimed republics in Russia-occupied Donbas, 
• and Putin says that such talks must take place if Minsk2 is to be fully implemented

how will this central conflict between Putin and Zelensky's new Chief of Ukraine's General Staff be resolved?

 

Zelensky is now walking along a taut political tightrope.

(to be continued)