Search This Blog

Saturday 15 June 2019

Will Zelensky fall into Merkel's diplomatic trap?

In my blog entry of 28 April I wrote that,

"Now recall that in his victory speech,

" ... Zelenskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." ( AFP YouTube )



As Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' wrote,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format""

whilst at the same time,

 "... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin is goading Zelenskiy to try and "remodel" his Minsk2 accords by remarking that,

“I’d discuss this matter with him with pleasure as I want to understand his stance ...” (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin"

Fast forward to 12 June, 2019, and we have Putin endorsing Zelensky's election platform to rid Ukraine of the influence of Ukraine's oligarchs, and to restore relations between "two parts of the same Russian nation".
 Full Putin Interview : YouTube (12 June 2019)

Yet the concerns about Zelensky's key appointments seem to point in the opposite direction to ridding Ukraine of the influence of its major Oligarchs.

As reported by Diane Francis (left),

 "Americans and Europeans became worried about Kolomoisky’s (left) power after Zelenskiy appointed the oligarch’s long-time lawyer, Andriy Bohdan, to head the government’s administration.

“Nobody’s happy with his appointment so openly which looks like he needs to comfort Kolomoisky,” said Zahoor. “He has a conflict of interest because Kolomoisky is fighting the government to get back his bank or to get billions in compensation. And here his lawyer is in the government.” (Atlantic Council : 28 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Bogdan            Zelensky            Kolomoiski

So much for Zelensky's platform about ridding Ukraine of the influence of its oligarchs.

Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,
  • Russian occupation forces have built the first rail track on the illegally built Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia-occupied Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai. (UNIAN : 14 June, 2019)
  • Four citizens have been injured, including a nine-year-old child, as a result of mortar shelling by Russian-led forces of residential areas in the town of Maryinka. (UNIAN : 14 June, 2019) 
What is even more significant,

"The plans of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, do not yet have contacts with the new President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, the press secretary of the head of the Russian state, Dmitry Peskov (right), told reporters in response to a relevant question.

“No, there are no plans yet,” Peskov told journalists on the margins of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. He noted that now there are different statements from the Ukrainian side." (Dmitry Peskov: Ria Novosti : 7 June 2019) (my emphasis) (Google Translate)

And whilst Putin is currently refusing to meet with Ukraine's President Zelensky,

"U.S. Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) (left) introduced legislation to give North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members an escape from Russia’s political coercion and manipulation.

The Energy Security Cooperation with Allied Partners in Europe Act, or the “ESCAPE Act,” (S. 1830) enhances the energy security of NATO members by providing those countries with reliable and dependable American energy. It also mandates sanctions on the Nord Stream II pipeline that would carry natural gas from Russia to Germany, along with other Russian energy export pipelines. (John Barrasso : 13 June 2019) (my emphasis)

This will rather put a fly in the ointment in the upcoming meeting between Merkel and Zelensky.

As reported by a Spokesperson of German government, Ulrike Demmer,

“On Tuesday, June 18, Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel will meet new President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky at 12:30 p.m. with military honors,” Demmer said.

She added that during the working lunch, the sides will discuss the bilateral relations, the fulfillment of Minsk Agreements and reforms in Ukraine" (112 International : 14 June 2019) (my emphasis)

Yet, if we are to believe  Dmitry Razumkov,

"Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (Ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

But, as reported in my blog entry (25 May, 2019), Vladimir Socor reported that,
  • "In his readout for Ukrainian media, in Paris and back in Kyiv, Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented [by French President Macron] with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020). 
  • Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that the withdrawal of Russian forces, disarmament of local proxy forces and restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Ukrinform, April 12, 13).
  • the French president regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines. (ibid Socor)

Merkel is desperate to prevent US actions against Nord Stream 2, Putin's pipeline which she regards as a non-political economic deal between herself and Putin. 

Will Zelensky now fall into the diplomatic trap of Merkel that critical parts of the Minsk2 Agreements are merely "aspirations"?

(to be continued)

No comments:

Post a Comment