As we move inexorably towards the coming elections on Sunday in Ukraine, one thing is becoming clear.
Putin is playing an astute political game with President Zelensky, and it seems as though Zelensky is falling headlong into Putin's diplomatic trap.
Let us first remind ourselves of the numerous 'ceasefires' in the Donbas, since 2014, that have, in many instances, lasted only a few hours.
Indeed, these 'ceasefires' have become both a military and political strategic tool employed by Putin and his proxies in his war with Ukraine.
And now, in the words of the Moscow Times, we are told that,
"Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s top security body have announced an “indefinite” ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that analysts hail as a substantial step toward ending the five-year conflict." (Moscow Times : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)
What is politically significant about this 'indefinite ceasefire' is that it will commence on the very day that the coming elections are held in Ukraine.
As reported by the Moscow Times (ibid),
"The sides have agreed to lay down arms starting midnight this Sunday, July 21, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — which collectively make up the Trilateral Contact Group — announced in a statement, with the participation of representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions."
In a simultaneous move, Putin has now announced,
"... a simpler procedure for granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians,” the statement said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s order on Thursday “a well-argued decision” made after multiple requests from residents of separatist self-proclaimed East Ukrainian republics." (Natalia Zinets, Maria Tsvetkova and Thomas Balmforth : Reuters : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)
Kurt Volker's (right) [ Special US representative in Ukraine] reponse to this announcement of Putin about 'simplifying the procedure for granting citizenship to Ukrainians, points out that,
"Russia’s move to fast-track the granting of citizenship to all residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk runs counter to efforts to achieve peace in an armed conflict that is in its sixth year.
Volker said that by expediting Russian passports for Ukrainian citizens, the measure “flies in the face [of] the spirit of the Minsk agreements,” (RFERL : 19 July 2019) (my emphasis)
Nikolaus von Twickel (left), a former member of the OSCE monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine, also cautioned that,
"... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has in the past. Additionally, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy were pursuing their own interests ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday.
“Russia’s aim is to increase the results of pro-Russian parties in Ukraine before the Rada elections. [Meanwhile,] Zelenskiy shows Ukrainians that under him there will be more progress than there was under [ex-president Petro] Poroshenko,” von Twickel told The Moscow Times." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)
Let us now remind ourselves that,
“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said."(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)
"Yesterday, president Zelensky already said that this referendum will be informational ... It will not be obligatory
[Questioner: Just like a consulting procedure] ... Consulting ..and ...
this idea of this referendum is clear ... President Zelensky .. he wants support from the people for his peace initiative ..."
So this referendum will not be about seeking advice from the people of Ukraine, nor will it [be] about making a decision about the Zelensky 'peace' process." (blog entry :27 May 2019)
It would now seem that Zelenskiy's former 'referendum' proposal has now morphed into "Elect my party and we will have an 'indefinite ceasefire' "
But, as Nikolaus von Twickel points out, " .... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has [done] in the past"
Zelenskiy's fate as President of Ukraine now hinges on the results of the upcoming general election in Ukraine this coming Sunday.
(to be continued)
Putin is playing an astute political game with President Zelensky, and it seems as though Zelensky is falling headlong into Putin's diplomatic trap.Let us first remind ourselves of the numerous 'ceasefires' in the Donbas, since 2014, that have, in many instances, lasted only a few hours.
Indeed, these 'ceasefires' have become both a military and political strategic tool employed by Putin and his proxies in his war with Ukraine.
And now, in the words of the Moscow Times, we are told that,"Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s top security body have announced an “indefinite” ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that analysts hail as a substantial step toward ending the five-year conflict." (Moscow Times : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)
What is politically significant about this 'indefinite ceasefire' is that it will commence on the very day that the coming elections are held in Ukraine.
As reported by the Moscow Times (ibid),
"The sides have agreed to lay down arms starting midnight this Sunday, July 21, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — which collectively make up the Trilateral Contact Group — announced in a statement, with the participation of representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions."
In a simultaneous move, Putin has now announced,
"... a simpler procedure for granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians,” the statement said.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s order on Thursday “a well-argued decision” made after multiple requests from residents of separatist self-proclaimed East Ukrainian republics." (Natalia Zinets, Maria Tsvetkova and Thomas Balmforth : Reuters : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)
Kurt Volker's (right) [ Special US representative in Ukraine] reponse to this announcement of Putin about 'simplifying the procedure for granting citizenship to Ukrainians, points out that,"Russia’s move to fast-track the granting of citizenship to all residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk runs counter to efforts to achieve peace in an armed conflict that is in its sixth year.
Volker said that by expediting Russian passports for Ukrainian citizens, the measure “flies in the face [of] the spirit of the Minsk agreements,” (RFERL : 19 July 2019) (my emphasis)
Nikolaus von Twickel (left), a former member of the OSCE monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine, also cautioned that,"... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has in the past. Additionally, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy were pursuing their own interests ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday.
“Russia’s aim is to increase the results of pro-Russian parties in Ukraine before the Rada elections. [Meanwhile,] Zelenskiy shows Ukrainians that under him there will be more progress than there was under [ex-president Petro] Poroshenko,” von Twickel told The Moscow Times." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)
Let us now remind ourselves that,
“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said."(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)
So this referendum will not be about seeking advice from the people of Ukraine, nor will it [be] about making a decision about the Zelensky 'peace' process." (blog entry :27 May 2019)
It would now seem that Zelenskiy's former 'referendum' proposal has now morphed into "Elect my party and we will have an 'indefinite ceasefire' "
But, as Nikolaus von Twickel points out, " .... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has [done] in the past"
Zelenskiy's fate as President of Ukraine now hinges on the results of the upcoming general election in Ukraine this coming Sunday.
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