Zelenskiy will be walking a political tightrope at the next Normandy Format meeting

Negotiations for the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Putin has been going on for many years, long before Zelenskiy took office as the President of Ukraine.

As Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel report,

"While talks over a prisoner swap were first initiated years ago, discussions gained momentum after Mr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine in April and vowed to initiate fresh peace talks with Moscow. Russian president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a swap would take place soon, describing it as “something of a compass [for relations with Kiev].”
" (Financial Times : September 7 2019) (my emphasis)

And yesterday,

"Russia and Ukraine exchanged 70 prisoners on Saturday after months of intense negotiations .." (ibid Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel)

Many, including Trump, are seeing this exchange as,

"Very good news, perhaps a first giant step to peace. Congratulations to both countries!" Trump said on Twitter." (RFERL : 7 Sept. 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the prisoner exchange was a "hopeful sign."

EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini welcomed the release and called on both sides to "build on this momentum."

France said the swap showed improved trust and will on both sides to resume dialogue." (ibid RFERL)                Merkel                         Mogherini                     Macron                             

 

Let it also be noted that,

"Foreign and defence ministers from France and Russia are set to meet in Moscow on Monday, the first such meeting since 2014." (Michael Peel and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 8 September, 2019) (my emphasis)

But amidst the euphoria over this prisoner exchange,

"Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok said after the exchange on September 7 that the Netherlands had asked Ukraine "several times and at the very highest level" not to hand Tsemakh (right) over to Russia, according to AFP. He "regretted" the decision, he added. 

Forty members of the European Parliament this week had urged Ukraine not to include him in any exchange, calling him a "key suspect." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

However,

"The Ukrainian president [Zelenskiy] said Tsemakh had been handed over after his questioning for several hours by a team from the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) that has already indicted four individuals for their alleged roles in the MH17 tragedy over separatist-held territory of eastern Ukraine." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis) cf also:

Let us also recall that, as David Brennan (right) reports,

"A senior Russian official has praised President Donald Trump's decision to delay $250 million in military funding to Ukraine, where government forces are battling a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country." (Newsweek : 30 August 2019) (my emphasis)

It now transpires that this delay of military funding to Ukraine is even more significant.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (Friday 6 Sept. 2019),

"According to the Washington Post tonight, Trump is also witholding those millions of dollars for Ukraine for another very specific purpose. Quote, "Mr. Trump has suspended the delivery of $250 million in US military aid to Ukraine, a country still fighting Russia in its eastern provinces. Some suspect that Mr Trump is again catering to Mr. Putin, who is dedicated to undermining Ukrainian democracy.

But we are reliably told that the president has a second, and more venal, agenda. He is attempting to force the new leader of Ukraine to intervene in the 2020 US presidential elections by launching an investigation into the leading presidential candidate, Joe Biden. .. Mr. Trump is not just soliciting Ukraine's help with his presidential campaign; he is using US military aid the country desperately needs in an attempt to extort it .." (MSNBC : 7 Sept., 2019) (my emphasis)

No doubt, in view of this prisoner exchange, Merkel and Macron will now be ramping up their call for a Normandy Format meeting to take place as soon as possible.

And in light of the recent prisoner exchange Ukraine's President Zelensky will, like Macron and Merkel, also be clamouring for a Normandy format meeting to try and end Putin's war with Ukraine.

But, and it is a big BUT, will Putin ever agree to relinquishing his hold over the Donbas or returning Crimea back to Ukraine?

Will Putin, in the words of Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations,

"Hope it [the prisoner exchange] builds momentum for further prisoner exchanges, renewed ceasefire, and progress toward full Minsk [II] implementation," Volker said on Twitter." (7 Sept 2019) (my emphasis)


Let recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.


As Vladimir Socor (right) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

• (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
• (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions [as laid out in the Minsk II protocols]  to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelenskiy will now be walking a political tightrope at the forthcoming Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Merkel, Macron, and himself.

Will he, like Merkel and Macron, also view those critical points in the Minsk II agreement (cf (1), (2), and (3) above) as mere "aspirations", to the delight of Putin?

(to be continued)