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Thursday 3 October 2019

What did Putin and Zelensky agree to during their private telephone conversations?


The tidal wave of exposure of Trump trying to "shake down" Zelensky, like a Mafia boss shaking down a local politician that they have in their pocket, should make Zelensky very wary of he, himself, being seen as also been 'shaken down' by Putin over the holding of elections in the Donbas.

As I reported yesterday (2 October 2019),

"We now also learn that Zelensky has,

" ... provisionally agreed to hold local elections in the occupied territories of its two easternmost regions once all armed formations leave the area and control is regained over about 400 kilometers of borderland with Russia.

At a briefing in Kyiv on October 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the agreement, brokered in Minsk with Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), paves the way for peace talks with Moscow to end the war in the Donbas that is in its sixth year."

This "agreement" that Zelensky was referring to, known as the "Steinmeier proposals", now turns out to be, in the words of Putin at a meeting held in Berlin (12 April 2019) between himself, Merkel, the French president and former president Petro Poroshenko.

" ... Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA

Yet it is supposedly this "Steinmeier formula" that Zelensky is now demanding,

"The 'Steinmeier formula' should be incorporated in a new law on special status [the law on special provisions of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions], which is not ready yet," Zelensky said. (UNIAN : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

As former president Poroshenko recently stated,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)


Just as Trump is now reaping the whirlwind of that fateful call he had with Zelensky on the 25 July 2019, Zelensky is now reaping the whirlwind of his fateful decision to hold elections in the Donbas, occupied by Putin's forces and his proxies, in accordance with a "Steinmeier formula" that, according to Poroshenko, "does not exist in nature".

As reported by the BBC,

"Hundreds of Ukrainians have protested after President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had backed an agreement that would bring elections to territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
...
The proposed vote is part of a plan known as the "Steinmeier formula" to bring special status in the separatist-held east." (BBC : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

As Jonah Fisher (right) also reports,

"The most sensitive aspect of the Steinmeier formula is that it allows local elections to take place in the occupied parts of Ukraine before Russian-backed forces have withdrawn, and Kiev has control of the border." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Critically, Fisher also informs us that,

"Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views have long ago left the occupied areas for their own safety. So it seems almost inevitable that the elections would consolidate the position of the Russia-aligned leaders who are currently in place, granting them the recognition Moscow has long craved."
...
It's not hard to see why President Zelensky's critics see this as a major concession, if not a capitulation. (my emphasis)

That 25th July call between Trump and Zelensky that has been revealed to the public is now ultimately leading to the impeachment of Trump.

But even more significant, especially in light of Zelensky suddenly agreeing to hold elections in the Donbas using a contested "Steinmeier formula", what did Putin and Zelensky agree to during their private telephone conversations?

(to be continued)

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