Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him.

Two days ago (29/1/2020) I wrote that,

"If , and this is a BIG 'If''..., if it is the case that Putin is changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine, of what real value will to-morrow's meeting between Pompeo and Zelensky be?


Indeed, what would Pompeo and Zelensky have to talk about except for Zelensky to, 'keep his mouth shut' about that July call between Trump and himself last year, and also 'to keep under wraps' any evidence Ukraine may unravel about Trump's associates spying on Marie Yovanovich (left), the former US ambassador to Ukraine?"

We now have the answer. 

Pompeo's visit to Ukraine is essentially to 'buy' Zelensky's tacit support for Trump, notwithstanding the fact that Trump publicly praised the fact that Pompeo, in his interview with NPR reporter  Mary Louise Kelley stated that 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine'.  (full text of interview)

NBC News : 30 January 2020

As reported by Kaitlan Collins, Phil Mattingly and Jennifer Hansler,

"The White House will propose keeping security assistance for Ukraine at current levels when it releases its budget next week after initially considering a massive cut to the program, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.
...
The administration was planning to propose dropping the State Department Foreign Military Financing (FMF) level to roughly the same level as its past budget proposals of $20 million, according to two people familiar with the discussions. That would be far below the enacted level of $115 million, which has strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. The White House will release its 2021 budget request on February 10.

Those plans were dropped on Thursday without explanation." (CNN : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Andrew Roth (right),

"The discussions [between Pompeo and Zelensky] are likely to cover bilateral relations and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, gas politics and the US’s sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, possible investment opportunities and the progress of reforms in Ukraine. Pompeo is also scheduled to meet with Ukraine’s foreign and defence ministers, as well as representatives of Ukraine’s religious, civil society, and business communities." (The Guardian : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

This sudden reinstatement of the full US military financing for Ukraine that Trump has, over the last three years, whittled down as his 'quid pro quo' with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections, started as early as July of 2016 at the Republican National Security Committee.

As I wrote in my blog entry of (19/7/2016),

" ... [A]t last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reported that, 

Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

 Let us also remind ourselves that,

"Throughout the [2016 US presidential] campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention." (ibid Denman) (my emphasis)

So Zelensky should be under no illusion that Trump, if re-elected as US president in November of this year, will have absolutely no qualms in reneging on any promises that Pompeo may offer him during their meeting today.

Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him. 

(to be continued)

Putin is laying down a snare for Zelensky.

Oliver Carroll reports that,

"Pompeo (left) heads to Kiev, days after saying ‘Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine’"
.....
Ahead of Mr Pompeo’s trip, speculation has centred on what message the secretary of state may deliver from Mr Trump when he meets with Mr Zelensky, ministers and other civic society leaders." (The Independent : 29 January 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also: Nick Allen : Daily Telegraph: 25 Jan. 2020)

Pompeo's statement that, 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine' occurred after an interview that he had with NPR reporter Mary Louise Kelley (right). (full text of interview)

CNN : 28 January 2020

Now recall that in my last blog entry (23/1/2020) I wrote that,

"It is therefore no co-incidence that Mike Pompeo , US Secretary of State, whom we learn was also 'in on the act' to shake down Zelensky, is now scurrying off to Kyiv presumably, according to Ivan Yakovina,

".... one reason for Pompeo’s trip could be to make sure that “no bad surprises would come from Kyiv during the Trump Senate trial.”(Christopher Miller (left): BuzzFeed : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Given the rather parlous state of Trump's defense team arguments at the currently ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Trump, one can only wonder at how Zelensky will respond to Pompeo during their meeting to-morrow knowing that Pompeo's 'mind-set' about Ukraine revolves around his belief that, 'Americans don’t f****** care about Ukraine'.

We also do not know if the recently proposed meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Israel during the Holocaust Memorial ceremonies actually took place. (cf. UNIAN : 22 January 2020)

What is interesting to note, as observed by Anders Åslund (right), is that,

"Putin has already had repeated contacts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He [Putin] is now likely to intensify his diplomatic endeavors [regarding his war with Ukraine]." (The Atlantic Council: 27 January 2020) (my emphasis)

These diplomatic efforts by Putin, according to Anders Åslund, are signified by the fact that,

"... there are indications that a major policy change towards Ukraine may be underway following reports that Putin has replaced his chief troublemaker Vladislav Surkov as Ukraine policy curator with trusted problem solver Dmitry Kozak." (ibid Anders Åslund)

If , and this is a BIG 'If''..., if it is the case that Putin is changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine, of what real value will to-morrow's meeting between Pompeo and Zelensky be?

Indeed, what would Pompeo and Zelensky have to talk about except for Zelensky to, 'keep his mouth shut' about that July call between Trump and himself last year, and also 'to keep under wraps' any evidence Ukraine may unravel about Trump's associates spying on Marie Yovanovich (left), the former US ambassador to Ukraine?
  
Putin is laying down a snare for Zelensky.

By changing his strategic policy towards Ukraine Putin hopes that Zelensky will begin to distance himself from the current US administration and shift towards Dmitry Kozak, Putin's ostensible 'problem solver'.

As Anders Åslund writes,

"Surkov’s apparent replacement Dmitry Kozak (right) has been close to Putin for many years, holding a series of senior positions without ever falling out of favor. As a lawyer, he has been Putin’s point man for constitutional and international legal matters." (ibid Anders Åslund)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Dmitry Kozak's  replacement of Surkov in Ukraine comes on the heels of Putin stating at his recent annual state-of-the-nation speech that,

"I really do think that the time has come to introduce certain changes to the country's main law that will directly guarantee the Russian constitution is the priority in our legal space," Putin said.

"This means that the demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human and citizens' rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution." (Moscow Times : 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Dmitry Kozak will be laying down Putin's 'legal' foundation stone for incorporating the Donbas area that his soldiers and proxies currently control into the Russian legal space.

Zelensky now has to make a choice.

Keep either Putin or Pompeo at arm's length.

 

(to be continued)

Of what real value will a meeting in Israel between Zelensky and Putin really be?

The noose is tightening around Trump's neck as the impeachment proceedings in the US Senate bombards Senators with an avalanche of evidence of Trump trying to 'shake down' Zelensky in July of last year.

 Youtube : 22 Jan. 2020

It is therefore no co-incidence that Mike Pompeo (left), US Secretary of State, whom we learn was also 'in on the act' to shake down Zelensky, is now scurrying off to Kyiv presumably, according to Ivan Yakovina,

".... one reason for Pompeo’s trip could be to make sure that “no bad surprises would come from Kyiv during the Trump Senate trial.”

“I mean no word-to-word transcripts of the relevant phone calls or other documents will leak,” he said. “If I were him I would assure the Ukrainians that they will be rewarded if nothing unexpected happens during the trial. And punished if comrade Trump’s enemies will get some sort of help or comfort from Kyiv.” (Christopher Miller (right): BuzzFeed : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Trump's impeachment trial progresses, UNIAN reports that,

"Mortality at checkpoints set up along the line of contact between the warring sides in eastern Ukraine's Donbas in 2019 increased by 40% year-on-year. ... In 2018, nine people died at checkpoints across Donetsk region, and 15 people – in the past year." (UNIAN : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)
 
This singular statistic indicates that Putin is far from trying to resolve his war with Ukraine.


As also stated by Edi Rama (right), current OSCE Chairperson-in-Office,

"The resumption of dialogue and the outcomes of the Normandy summit are steps in the right direction. Nevertheless, there is much more to be done. It is a long road ahead to lasting peace." (UNIAN : 22 January 2020) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, one wonders whether the possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the Holocaust memorial meetings in Israel on 23 January will be of any value in Putin moving towards resolving his war with Ukraine. (cf: UNIAN 22 january 2020)

Added to which Ulrich Oehme, of the proto-Nazi far-right AfD, Germany's largest opposition party in the Bundestag which supports Putin,

"... put forward an offer [at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)] to include "DPR-LPR" representatives into the Normandy Four talks." (UNIAN : 23 January 2020) (my emphasis)

to the utter delight of Putin.

As Der Spiegel reported in April of last year,

"The AfD, which was founded six years ago as a euro-skeptic party, has proved to be a stroke of luck for Putin. It shares the Russian president's goal of attacking the establishment. Putin wants to break the West's power by driving a wedge through it.
...
The Russian leadership sees the biggest opposition party in the Germany parliament, the Bundestag, as an ally in the war against "degenerate Europe," as neo-fascist ideologue Alexander Dugin (right) once described it." (Der Spiegel : 12 April 2019) (my emphasis)

So we have to ask ourselves,

"Of what real value will a meeting in Israel between Zelensky and Putin really be?"

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky deal with Putin's 'voting' Trojan Horse in the occupied Donbas?

The die has been cast.

President Donald Trump finds himself standing in the dock of impeachment because of that fateful call between himself and Zelensky in July of last year.

BBC 19 Dec 2019

No-one could have predicted that the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity in 2014, that led to the overthrow of  Viktor Yanukovich, would six years later take centre stage in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump.

  BBC 20 January 2020

And as the impeachment trial of Trump readies itself in the US Senate, Putin is busying himself with setting the stage for his continued control over Russia, even after his current presidential term.

As reported by the BBC,

"Russia's government has resigned, hours after President Vladimir Putin proposed sweeping constitutional changes that could prolong his stay in power.

If approved by the public, the proposals would transfer power from the presidency to parliament.

Mr Putin is due to step down in 2024 when his fourth term of office comes to an end." (BBC: 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

  MSNBC: 16 January 2020

 

What signals a real danger for Ukraine in Putin's recent annual state-of-the-nation speech was his pronouncement that,

""I really do think that the time has come to introduce certain changes to the country's main law that will directly guarantee the Russian constitution is the priority in our legal space," Putin said.

"This means that the demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human and citizens' rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution." (Moscow Times : 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin's proposed changes will, at a stroke, remove Ukraine's Crimea from falling within the jurisprudence of International law and thus nullify any demands of Ukraine that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.

Neither was Ukraine's Donbas area controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies out of his sights.

In Putin's own words,

“Our historical responsibility is not only to get out of the demographic trap, but also ensure sustainable natural population growth by the middle of the coming decade.” (ibid Moscow Times) 

Ukraine's Donbas is part of Putin's plan "to get out of the demographic trap". His showering of Russian passports on the people of Ukraine's Donbas controlled by his Russia soldiers and proxies is the first salvo in his attempt to get out of the Russian demographic trap by simply incorporating Ukrainians into his demographic plans.

As reported by Toma Istomina (left),

"Eight months after simplifying the procedure of acquiring a Russian passport for residents of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Russia announced that it has granted over 196,000 citizenships to Ukrainians.

The figures came from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian TASS news agency reported on Jan. 1." (Kyiv Post : 2 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore any wonder that, suddenly, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), recently announced that,

""We hope the decisions adopted in Paris in December will allow us to move along the path of implementing the Minsk package of measures." (UNIAN : 17 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In particular, Lavrov was referring to the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas.

After all, Putin believes he now has 196,000 Russian Donbas votes 'in the bag', so to speak.
Therefore even the facts that,

• Ukraine put forward a new condition for holding the elections in Donbas, namely the return of IDPs and their participation in the vote and
• the Ukrainian side emphasized that elections could only be held when the borders of Ukraine were again completely under its control or that of international observers, (ibid UNIAN)

 Lavrov seems nonplussed by these conditions knowing that those 196,000 'Russian' votes will support whatever Putin wishes be put on any ballot paper during the elections in Ukraine's occupied Donbas.

If, therefore, Putin agrees to Ukraine's President Zelensky's 'conditions' for holding elections in the occupied Donbas, will Zelensky simply ignore the 'Trojan Horse' of 196,000 'Russian votes' that have already been cast even before those elections are held?

How will Zelensky deal with this 'voting' Trojan Horse of Putin in the occupied Donbas?   
      

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky handle his upcoming meeting with Pompeo?

The end of year celebrations are over, and the new year is upon us.

In his attempt to stave off his impending impeachment trial in the US Senate, Trump has brought the world to the brink of a dangerous war between the US and Iran.

In 2011, Trump predicted that the then US president, Barak Obama,

" ... would attack Iran in order to win a second term. Trump followed this notion up at other points in 2011 and 2012." (MSNBC : 3 Jan 2019)  (my emphasis)

It is rather ironic that this is now precisely what Trump, himself, is doing, to the utter consternation of many leaders around the world.

Is it therefore any wonder that Putinversteher Merkel and Putin will be meeting on 11 January,

"... to discuss pressing issues on the international agenda, including the situation in Syria and Libya, as well as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following a U.S. airstrike at Baghdad's airport on January 3..." (UNIAN : 6 January 2020) (my emphasis)

as well as,

"... also touch upon the settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, in particular regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and arrangements reached at the Normandy Four summit held in Paris December 9." (ibid UNIAN 6 Jan 2020)

also touch upon the settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, in particular regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and arrangements reached at the Normandy Four summit held in Paris December 9.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/world/10820321-merkel-to-visit-russia-at-putin-s-invitation.html

Let us remind ourselves that,

"Ukraine has welcomed expected U.S. sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline as"good news," while Germany, the main beneficiary of the project, has rejected the move as "foreign interference.
...
U.S. Senate and House committees agreed on December 9 to include a bill placing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), putting up a potential roadblock to the project's completion." (RFERL : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 12 December 2019

Putin and Merkel are now scrambling to cobble together a deal that will allow Putin 'to save face' over allowing the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine, thus pouring money into the coffers of Ukraine.

The scrabbling together of this deal is best illustrated by the fact that,

"CEO of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) LLC Serhiy Makogon says the company has received payment for gas transit in full from Russia’s Gazprom, despite a reduction in volumes of gas transmitted." (Kyiv Post : 5 Jan 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, US Secretary Of State, Mike Pompeo,

"... just had a call with Ukraine's [President Volodymyr] Zelensky. Comes after he delayed his visit to Kyiv. He's now expected to go at the end of the month," journalist Christopher Miller said on Twitter on January 6, referring to a U.S. State Department readout of a recent phone call between the two officials." (UNIAN : 7 January 2020) (my emphasis)

US Secretary Of State Pompeo, however, now finds the agenda of his meeting with Zelensky somewhat on shaky grounds as more evidence now emerges that Trump, Mafia-like, tried to shake down Zelensky during that fateful call in July 2019.

As reported by Rachel Maddow,

"... they [Ukraine] can't get the military aid unless they announce the investigation [into Joe Biden] ... Dont't worry .. They will get the military aid as soon as Mike Pence has that meeting [with President Zelensky] ..." (MSNBC : 7 Jan 2020) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting for Pompeo, John Bolton (left), former Trump National Security Advisor who resigned from the Trump administration, is ready to testify before the Senate about the 'drug deal', as he calls it, that Trump was trying to make with Zelensky.

The White House is now on edge, as are Trump's vehement supporters in the US Senate.

MSNBC 6 Jan 2020

As I wrote previously (11/12/2019),

"It is ironical that both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz.

• Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and 
• Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump' 

As Zelensky stated,

"I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy) (my emphasis)

What agenda will Pompeo now be bringing with him to Kiev in light of John Bolton's announcement that he is willing to testify, against Trump, at the upcoming Senate impeachment trial against Trump?

Zelensky now has it in his power to call the shots with Pompeo, if they ever meet this month.

As the evidence of Trump's shakedown of Zelensky continues to mount, Pompeo's hands will be tied.

How will Zelensky handle his upcoming meeting with Pompeo? 

(to be continued)