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Sunday 19 January 2020

How will Zelensky deal with Putin's 'voting' Trojan Horse in the occupied Donbas?

The die has been cast.

President Donald Trump finds himself standing in the dock of impeachment because of that fateful call between himself and Zelensky in July of last year.

BBC 19 Dec 2019


No-one could have predicted that the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity in 2014, that led to the overthrow of  Viktor Yanukovich, would six years later take centre stage in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump.


And as the impeachment trial of Trump readies itself in the US Senate, Putin is busying himself with setting the stage for his continued control over Russia, even after his current presidential term.

As reported by the BBC,

"Russia's government has resigned, hours after President Vladimir Putin proposed sweeping constitutional changes that could prolong his stay in power.

If approved by the public, the proposals would transfer power from the presidency to parliament.

Mr Putin is due to step down in 2024 when his fourth term of office comes to an end." (BBC: 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

  MSNBC: 16 January 2020
 

What signals a real danger for Ukraine in Putin's recent annual state-of-the-nation speech was his pronouncement that,

""I really do think that the time has come to introduce certain changes to the country's main law that will directly guarantee the Russian constitution is the priority in our legal space," Putin said.

"This means that the demands of international legislation and treaties, and also the decisions of international bodies can only apply to Russia's territory when they do not entail restricting human and citizens' rights and freedoms, and do not contradict our constitution." (Moscow Times : 15 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin's proposed changes will, at a stroke, remove Ukraine's Crimea from falling within the jurisprudence of International law and thus nullify any demands of Ukraine that Crimea be returned to Ukraine.

Neither was Ukraine's Donbas area controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies out of his sights.

In Putin's own words,

“Our historical responsibility is not only to get out of the demographic trap, but also ensure sustainable natural population growth by the middle of the coming decade.” (ibid Moscow Times) 

Ukraine's Donbas is part of Putin's plan "to get out of the demographic trap". His showering of Russian passports on the people of Ukraine's Donbas controlled by his Russia soldiers and proxies is the first salvo in his attempt to get out of the Russian demographic trap by simply incorporating Ukrainians into his demographic plans.

As reported by Toma Istomina (left),

"Eight months after simplifying the procedure of acquiring a Russian passport for residents of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Russia announced that it has granted over 196,000 citizenships to Ukrainians.

The figures came from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian TASS news agency reported on Jan. 1." (Kyiv Post : 2 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore any wonder that, suddenly, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), recently announced that,

""We hope the decisions adopted in Paris in December will allow us to move along the path of implementing the Minsk package of measures." (UNIAN : 17 January 2020) (my emphasis)

In particular, Lavrov was referring to the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas.

After all, Putin believes he now has 196,000 Russian Donbas votes 'in the bag', so to speak.
Therefore even the facts that,
  • Ukraine put forward a new condition for holding the elections in Donbas, namely the return of IDPs and their participation in the vote and
  • the Ukrainian side emphasized that elections could only be held when the borders of Ukraine were again completely under its control or that of international observers, (ibid UNIAN)
 Lavrov seems nonplussed by these conditions knowing that those 196,000 'Russian' votes will support whatever Putin wishes be put on any ballot paper during the elections in Ukraine's occupied Donbas.

If, therefore, Putin agrees to Ukraine's President Zelensky's 'conditions' for holding elections in the occupied Donbas, will Zelensky simply ignore the 'Trojan Horse' of 196,000 'Russian votes' that have already been cast even before those elections are held?

How will Zelensky deal with this 'voting' Trojan Horse of Putin in the occupied Donbas?   
      
(to be continued)

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