Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House

As the 2020 US presidential elections draws closer each day, Trump is beginning to signal to Putin that,

 “... it would be a great thing for the world…. If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good.” (RFE/RL: February 24 2020) (my emphasis)

 This retort of Trump was in response to a very interesting question viz.

"A reporter had asked Trump to comment on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent accusations that other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart, saying the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together." (ibid RFE/RL)


So was Trump :-

1. 'agreeing' with Putin that "other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart" or that
2.  ".. the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together."

In either case, Putin's central goal of his war with Ukraine viz. to re-absorb Ukraine into a Soviet-style vassal of Moscow, remains intact.

This is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday, February 23, mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 14 times on February 23," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on February 24, 2020." (UNIAN : 24 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting,

"The increase in combat capabilities of Russian army grouping on the border with Ukraine is a consequence of the Kremlin's "military spending spree", according to the coordinator of the "Information Resistance" OSINT Group, military expert Kostiantyn Mashovets." (UNIAN : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Kostiantyn Mashovets is correct in posing the question,

"Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?" (ibid UNIAN 20 February) (my emphasis)

Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10882322-russia-upping-military-presence-even-in-the-arctic-osint-group.html

And whilst Putin is beefing up his military preparedness on Russia's border with Ukraine, two interesting political and economic announcements viz.

• "Turkey's president on Monday denounced the Russian annexation of Crimea and pledged to support the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on a visit to Ukraine that Turkey will help build housing for 500 families of Crimean Tatars who have relocated to other parts of Ukraine after Crimea's annexation." (TRT World : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis)
•  Ukraine’s State Statistical Service has just published its data on Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2019. The two big changes are in the structure of Ukraine’s trading partners and the makeup of its export commodities... The key takeaway is that Ukraine is no longer economically dependent on Russia. ... In 2019 ....  Russia was Ukraine’s third largest export market with only 6.5 percent of Ukraine’s exports, though it still contributed 11.5 percent of Ukraine’s imports, being number two after China. (Anders Åslund : Atlantic Council : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)

simply adds to Putin's sleepless nights over just how far Ukraine is along the road to completely severing all its Soviet ties with Russia.

Furthermore, on the political front,

"Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (left) says the settlement of the armed conflict in Donbas, sparked by Russia, will have no prospects until the border, through which Russian weapons are delivered, is sealed.  
...
He underlined Ukraine's position that the peacekeeping mission must be deployed throughout Donbas, not just the demarcation line as the Russians suggested." (UNIAN : 21 February 2020) (my emphasis)

This announcement by Vadym Prystaiko no doubt also stems from the fact that,

"Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk forecasts Ukraine may be granted Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP) [of NATO] status as early as in October 2020. "The main results of the Munich [Security Conference] are: there is no decrease in attention paid to Ukraine at the level of experts and the Ministry of Defense – there is a lot of attention, there is a lot of support. There is full support for our reforms, they know about our reforms," (UNIAN : 19 February 2020) (my emphasis) 

Is is therefore any wonder that Putin is beefing up his troops on the Russia-Ukraine border?

Putin now has to focus on even more Kremlin effort in ensuring that Trump be re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

Already Trump is coming to Putin's rescue by supporting him with comments such as, " .... If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good ... "

And it is precisely these comments from Trump that Zelensky should be very mindful of when still wishing to be invited by Trump to the White House.

Zelensky should be aware that Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

And in this, Trump has the FULL support of Putin. 

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be very wary of a meeting between himself and Trump.

The Munich Security Conference is coming to a close and,

"US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday traded barbs with European leaders over diminishing Western influence, rejecting as “grossly over-exaggerated” their claims that Washington had retreated from the global stage." (Rawstory : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Indeed, Rawsory goes on to report that,

"But France’s Macron echoed the German concerns.

The US was undergoing “a rethink of its relationship with Europe”, Macron said, strengthening his belief that the continent had to take charge of its own destiny.
“We need a European strategy that renews us and turn us into a strategic political power,” he said." (ibid Rawstory) (my emphasis)

Youtube

And against the backdrop of this 'spat' between Pompeo and Macron,

"A distinguished group of American, European, and Russian former government officials and think tank experts has taken advantage of the Munich Security Conference to issue a statement recommending twelve steps  (14 February 2020) to bring greater security to Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic region.

 For years, the Kremlin has tried to change the conversation on Ukraine, and they are clearly seeking another opening in Munich. In response, twenty-seven former US diplomats, government officials, and experts point out their errors." (Atlantic Council : 14 February 2020) (my emphasis)

In particular, the critics of the 'Twelve Steps' proposed by the European Leadership Network group point out that :

• Recommendation eight picks up the Kremlin-friendly idea of partial sanctions easing for partial implementation of the Minsk Agreement. It ignores the fact that the most critical element of Minsk is a real ceasefire, which could happen tomorrow if Moscow so instructed its officers and proxies in the Donbas.
•  Recommendation twelve, which calls for a “new national dialogue about identity,” is a dubious meddle in Ukraine’s internal affairs. This reflects Moscow’s meme about a divided Ukraine that led to the “civil war” in the Donbas.  The reality is that the historic divides in Ukraine have lessened dramatically in the thirty years of independence—especially in the six years since Russia seized Crimea. (ibid Atlantic Council)

No doubt Zelensky is aware of the 'recommendations' of the European Leadership Network. This is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that at the Munich Security Conference he stated that,

 "Our desire today is to hold local elections throughout Ukraine, including with certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in October 2020, and we'd also like to see them held in the territory of Crimea. But to do this without elementary security and political conditions met, violating the Constitution of Ukraine and international standards of democratic elections, would be impossible for us," the president said, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.
 (UNIAN : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Earlier Zelensky's newly appointed Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, stated that,

"Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak says holding elections in the war-torn Donbas is impossible until foreign troops and illegal armed groups are withdrawn and control over the border is regained by Ukraine.
.....
We on the Ukrainian side are ready to fulfill all the agreements that were reached, primarily in Paris," he said. "We have a clear plan for what should happen so that in late October, elections could be held throughout Ukraine, in line with Ukrainian laws," said Yermak.

 According to the Presidential Office chief, some compromises could be reached during talks, but not to the detriment of Ukraine's interests." (UNIAN: 12 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Who Is Andriy Yermak? (RFERL)

Yermak has extensive business interests in Putin's Russia. So what, exactly, is he referring to when he says that, " ... some compromises could be reached during talks ..."?

Even more disconcerting, as Angela Merkel begins to relinquish her Chancellorship of Germany, her chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (right), the recent leader of the CDU party in Germany, had to resign her position because of  her joining the CDU with Germany's far-right AFD party during the Thuringia state elections to elect a member of the smaller, pro-business Free Democrats as state premier (Jen Kirby : Vox: 10 February 2020) (my emphasis)

What, now, will Merkel's legacy be over her handling of Putin's war with Ukraine?


Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's linking with Germany's far-right AFD party during the Thuringia state elections should also be viewed against the known fact that the AFD, Germany's current largest opposition party in the German Parliament, is also a big supporter of Putin.

So what compromises with Putin will Merkel offer at the next Normandy Format Meeting between herself, Putin, Macron, and Zelensky?

And how will these 'compromises' of Merkel square with the 'compromises' that Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, is referring to?

In the wake of Trump's acquittal by the Republican party in the US Senate, Zelensky now seems to be scrabbling to get back into Trump's 'good books'.

This attempt by Zelensky at a reset with Trump comes as Trump has now been emboldened to trample all over the Rule of Law in the US by not only attempting to put his enemies behind bars but also to release his friends who are now sitting behind bars.

Zelensky should be very wary of a meeting between himself and Trump.

(to be continued)

Both Trump and Putin have Zelensky in their political gun sights

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

" Let us also remind ourselves that,

"Throughout the [2016 US presidential] campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention." (Josh Rogin) (my emphasis)

So Zelensky should be under no illusion that Trump, if re-elected as US president in November of this year, will have absolutely no qualms in reneging on any promises that Pompeo may offer him during their meeting today.

Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him." (blog entry  31/1/2020)

True to form, we now learn that,

"US President Donald Trump has dismissed two senior officials who testified against him at his impeachment trial.

The US envoy to the EU, Gordon Sondland, said he "was advised today that the president intends to recall me effective immediately".

Just hours earlier, Lt Col Alexander Vindman, a top expert on Ukraine, was escorted from the White House." (BBC : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

As also reported in an interview with Nick Schifrin, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, stated that,

"Ambassador William Taylor:

Alex Vindman did follow orders.

He's been a total professional the times I have had the opportunity to deal with Alex. He tried to stay nonpolitical, focused, professional. He knew Ukraine very well, obviously, cared about it, cared about the United States. So, this is disappointing that it ended this way." (PBS News Hour : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

And prior to Trump exacting revenge on those who testified against him during his impeachment trial in the US Congress, we now also learn that,

"The Trump administration is currently withholding approval for at least six commercial orders for arms and ammunition from U.S. companies to Ukraine, together worth roughly $30 million, according to three current Ukrainian officials and a former senior U.S. official who have direct knowledge of the sales, straining an already fragile relationship between the two countries. 
...
The officials said they haven't been able to get any answers from the Trump administration about why the deals, which typically take around two months to approve and must be licensed by the State Department, haven't received approval." (UNIAN : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Given the fact of Trump exacting his revenge on Vindman and Sondland so publicly, will he now also exact his revenge on Zelensky for NOT coming to his aid by publicly announcing that "there was no "quid-pro-quo" during their 25 July call last year?  

Trump will have no qualms in reneging on ANY promises that Pompeo may have given Zelensky during their meeting at the end of last month.

As reported by Andrew Roth (right),

"The discussions [between Pompeo and Zelensky] are likely to cover bilateral relations and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, gas politics and the US’s sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, possible investment opportunities and the progress of reforms in Ukraine. " (The Guardian : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky would be wise to completely ignore any of Pompeo's promises in light of Trump's current public display of his vindictiveness.

Indeed, Zelensky should also be mindful of Putin's dismissive attitude towards any political movement towards bringing to an end his ongoing war with Ukraine.

This attitude of Putin is best exemplified by the current regurgitating of that initial justification for his invasion of  the Donbas.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The protection of rights of the Russian and Russian-speaking population, the protection of our compatriots abroad is one of priority tasks of our foreign policy," [Russian Foreign Ministry's Commissioner for Human Rights and Democracy, Grigory Lukyantsev] told a briefing in Moscow, as reported by an UNIAN correspondent in Russia on February 7. (UNIAN; 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire six times on February 7," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on February 8, 2020." (UNIAN: 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin will now be further emboldened in his war with Ukraine following Trump's acquittal from impeachment by the Republican Senators in the US Senate last Wednesday (5 February 2020).

Which is why the 'suggestion' by Yuri Aristov of Zelensky's 'Servant of the People' party, who is also the Head of the Parliamentary Budget Committee, that,

" ....  selling water to Crimea would help supplement Ukraine’s finances.  “Israelis sell water effectively to a country at war with them and earn money.  We had the idea, for example, to sell water to Russia (Halya Coynash (right): Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group: 5/2/2020) ”

is playing right into Putin's hands.

As stated by Refat Chubarov (left),  Head of the Mejlis or representative assembly of the Crimean Tatar people,

“Supplying water to Crimea would mean giving up yet another position, with this still further distancing Crimea from Ukraine. It would force public opinion to conclude that Crimea is Russia, since the latter is very effectively governing it, including by agreeing with Ukraine on supplies of water”. (ibid Halya Coynash) (my emphasis)

Both Trump and Putin have Zelensky in their political gun sights.

So the question is, "What proposals will Zelensky submit at a possible Normandy Format summit between himself, Merkel, Macron, and Putin, that is scheduled to take place in April 2020?"

Will there be a a 'sidelines' meeting between these Normandy Format members at the 2020 Munich Security Conference that will be taking place on the 14 February until the 17 February?

Will the fear of Ukraine's Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (right) that "he did not want the ministerial meeting [at the Munich Conference] to replace the four leaders' upcoming summit in April" (UNIAN: 6 February 2020) come to fruition, thus scuppering the proposed Normandy Four Summit in April?

We will see.

(to be continued)