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Monday 24 February 2020

Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House

As the 2020 US presidential elections draws closer each day, Trump is beginning to signal to Putin that,

 “... it would be a great thing for the world…. If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good.” (RFE/RL: February 24 2020) (my emphasis)


 This retort of Trump was in response to a very interesting question viz.

"A reporter had asked Trump to comment on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent accusations that other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart, saying the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together." (ibid RFE/RL)


So was Trump :-
  1. 'agreeing' with Putin that "other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart" or that
  2.  ".. the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together."
In either case, Putin's central goal of his war with Ukraine viz. to re-absorb Ukraine into a Soviet-style vassal of Moscow, remains intact.

This is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday, February 23, mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 14 times on February 23," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on February 24, 2020." (UNIAN : 24 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting,

"The increase in combat capabilities of Russian army grouping on the border with Ukraine is a consequence of the Kremlin's "military spending spree", according to the coordinator of the "Information Resistance" OSINT Group, military expert Kostiantyn Mashovets." (UNIAN : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Kostiantyn Mashovets is correct in posing the question,

"Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?" (ibid UNIAN 20 February) (my emphasis)

Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?

And whilst Putin is beefing up his military preparedness on Russia's border with Ukraine, two interesting political and economic announcements viz.

  • "Turkey's president on Monday denounced the Russian annexation of Crimea and pledged to support the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on a visit to Ukraine that Turkey will help build housing for 500 families of Crimean Tatars who have relocated to other parts of Ukraine after Crimea's annexation." (TRT World : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis)
  •  Ukraine’s State Statistical Service has just published its data on Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2019. The two big changes are in the structure of Ukraine’s trading partners and the makeup of its export commodities... The key takeaway is that Ukraine is no longer economically dependent on Russia. ... In 2019 ....  Russia was Ukraine’s third largest export market with only 6.5 percent of Ukraine’s exports, though it still contributed 11.5 percent of Ukraine’s imports, being number two after China. (Anders Åslund : Atlantic Council : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)
simply adds to Putin's sleepless nights over just how far Ukraine is along the road to completely severing all its Soviet ties with Russia.

Furthermore, on the political front,

"Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (left) says the settlement of the armed conflict in Donbas, sparked by Russia, will have no prospects until the border, through which Russian weapons are delivered, is sealed.  
...
He underlined Ukraine's position that the peacekeeping mission must be deployed throughout Donbas, not just the demarcation line as the Russians suggested." (UNIAN : 21 February 2020) (my emphasis)

This announcement by Vadym Prystaiko no doubt also stems from the fact that,

"Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk forecasts Ukraine may be granted Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP) [of NATO] status as early as in October 2020. "The main results of the Munich [Security Conference] are: there is no decrease in attention paid to Ukraine at the level of experts and the Ministry of Defense – there is a lot of attention, there is a lot of support. There is full support for our reforms, they know about our reforms," (UNIAN : 19 February 2020) (my emphasis) 

Is is therefore any wonder that Putin is beefing up his troops on the Russia-Ukraine border?

Putin now has to focus on even more Kremlin effort in ensuring that Trump be re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

Already Trump is coming to Putin's rescue by supporting him with comments such as, " .... If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good ... "

And it is precisely these comments from Trump that Zelensky should be very mindful of when still wishing to be invited by Trump to the White House.

Zelensky should be aware that Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

And in this, Trump has the FULL support of Putin. 

(to be continued)

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