Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic

Putin's worst nightmare has arrived. This nightmare is best summed up by the following heading ..

So reported Patti Dom (20 April 2020). 

"The oil industry is in its worst crisis since at least the Great Depression (of the 1930's), according to analysts.

There’s too much oil, and nobody wants to buy any more. Planes aren’t flying, shipping has slowed, and U.S. consumers, who use 10% of the world’s oil output in their cars, are now staying at home." (CNBC : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet as recently as 12 April, BBC Business reported that,

"Opec producers and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10% after a slump in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns.

The deal, agreed on Sunday via video conference, is the largest cut in oil production ever to have been agreed." (BBC Business : 12 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This level of oil-price volatility is still further depressing Putin's Russian economy.

As reported by Energyworld, Putin's

" ... National Wealth Fund has sufficient reserves to last until 2024 if oil prices remain at current levels, the TASS news agency quoted Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying on Sunday.
" (Energyworld : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

 However, Energyworld further reports that,

"Russia's economy will show "seriously negative figures for the second quarter", former economy minister Maxim Oreshkin (right), an aide to President Vladimir Putin, was quoted as saying by TASS." (ibid Energyworld) (my emphasis)

If the corona virus and the volatility of the price of oil is causing Putin to have nightmares, adding to his woes is the fact that,

"On April 20, 2020, Ukraine is taking over the Chairmanship of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation from Turkey."Our State will be the first to chair the Forum online, taking into account the situation associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine said in a statement on the beginning of Ukraine's presidency in the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation (FSC)." (UNIAN: 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Ukraine will be bringing to the fore,

" .... modern challenges to regional and international security, primarily hybrid threats, militarization and impediment of navigation in the Azov and Black Sea region ..." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

But what effect will Ukraine's chairmanship of the OSCE have on the continuous attacks by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas? 

As reported by UNIAN,

" The number of attacks by Russia's hybrid military forces on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, rose to 13 on April 20 with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action and another four as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 21 April 2020) (my emphasis)

As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic. 

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?

On 30th September, 1938, the then Prime Minister of Great Britain, Neville Chamberlain (left), addressed the crowd after his return from Germany, where he concluded the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler, and said,

"The settlement of the Czechoslovakian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The Munich Agreement,

"...provided "cession to Germany of the Sudeten German territory" of Czechoslovakia.[1] Most of Europe celebrated the agreement, because it prevented the war threatened by Adolf Hitler by allowing Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Youtube

Fast forward to 2020 and we have, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (left) does not intend to withdraw signatures of his Office Head Andriy Yermak and Ukraine's envoy to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk Leonid Kuchma from the minutes of meeting laying down the creation of the so-called "advisory council" with the participation of unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas." (UNIAN: 6 April 2020) (my emphasis)


The creation of this "advisory council", which includes Putin's proxies who are euphemistically referred to as "unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas", bears a striking resemblance to the Munich Agreement signed by Chamberlain and Hitler in 1938.

 Putin:- 

"the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one single people," which is being taken as a major rhetorical step toward occupying or annexing more of Ukraine as Russian territory
....
The comments came just a day after Putin referred to the Russia-backed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine [Donbas] as "the militia of Novorossiya," which means New Russia. (Vox : 30 August 2014) (my emphasis)
   

Hitler:-

"... Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." 


Unlike Chamberlain's Munich Agreement with Hitler, which was applauded by the Dutch and the French, amongst others,

" ... about 60 MPs with the Servant of the People Party called on President Zelensky to halt the process of creation of the advisory council as many believed the move would legitimize Russian puppet militants in the occupied Donbas, putting them on par with the Ukrainian government, as well as neglecting Russia's direct participation in the conflict." (ibid UNIAN 6 April 2020) (my  emphasis)

Zelensky's argument that,

"The Minutes of Meeting is not an international treaty as defined in Article 2 of Law of Ukraine 'On International Treaties of Ukraine', therefore the law does not regulate the President's authorization of signing or decision to withdraw signatures from Minsk TCG's working document of March 11, 2020," (ibid UNIAN)

thus represents a political and legal sleight of hand that, whilst underscoring his election pledge to end the war between Ukraine and Putin in the Donbas, nonetheless also underscores Putin's rhetorical 'Novorossiya' argument for invading and occupying the Donbas.

Putin is using much the same argument as used by Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia.


And against the backdrop of Zelensky giving the "green light" to the setting up of the "advisory council", UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on April 7 mounted 10 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 10 times on April 7," (UNIAN : 8 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The question is :-

"Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?"

Zelensky should remind himself that in 1938 the Munich Agreement failed. 

(to be continued)